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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
 The weirdest part of this Coulson mailer is that a Republican House member from the North Shore and Gary Forby, a state Senator from deep southern Illinois, are the only two politicians with tough races who are using Rod Blagojevich in their campaigns.
What the heck does that say?
UPDATE: Here are some Governor Blagojevich quotes from today’s press conference (courtesy of the Carterville Courier staff):
“Gary Forby would be with me in Springfield in the governor’s office and we’d sit down and talk about the budget. I’d kind of tell him we’re turning the corner and getting more money for health care, more money for pre-schools. Gary would listen and he’d say, ‘Rob.’ Not Rod. ‘Rob.’ He mispronounces my last name and the first name. He says, ‘Rob, what are we doing about coal?’”
“It’s true that Gary Forby and I don’t agree on 100 percent of the things that we have to deal with in the legislature. But we do agree on our commitment to fight for working people and give working people a chance to get work. That’s why we’re here today to talk about providing opportunities for working people who work hard.”
“Today, we’re doing a couple of things about coal. An idea that began with Gary Forby. An idea that he worked on because he is so committed. We both share the same objective and the same goal, and that’s to get people working again.”
(Photo Credit: Devin Miller)
- posted by Rich Miller 2 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
State Rep. Beth Coulson has an “R” behind her name, she sits on the Republican side of the House, votes with the GOP caucus for leadership.
The trouble is, her district leans heavily Democratic. The Democrats have been trying to inform voters all season that Coulson is really a Republican, but Coulson has complained that the Democrats are just being mean.
One of my subscribers received some Coulson lit in the mail today. I have some excerpts below. Sorry about the size, but I couldn’t make them any smaller.
The first has her with the ever-popular Barack Obama, who, in reality, has endorsed Coulson’s Democratic opponent.
This next mailer features Governor Rod Blagojevich, complete with a helpful quote from the Democratic leader.
She even features Attorney General Lisa Madigan in the Blagojevich piece.
As one Republican cracked today, “Coulson gives RINOs a bad name.” (A RINO, for those of you who don’t know, is a Republican In Name Only.)
More later this weekend.
- posted by Rich Miller 3 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
This is an interesting development….
Photo credit: Devin Miller
- posted by Rich Miller 7 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
Archpundit has been on the story of the alleged “bomb scare” at Alan Keyes’ check-opening office. First check the background. Then, his follow-up, which he calls: “A story of caution, not bombs.”
- posted by Rich Miller 2 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
From the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s The Race is On blog:
Gambling interests have given at least $387K since July 1. The biggest giver is Alton Gaming, operator of the Alton Belle Casino, at $140K. Richard Duchossois and his relatives and associated businesses, including Arlington Park, have given $77,615, while Harrah’s shows $62,700. The Racing Association of Illinois, operator of Balmoral Racing Club, shows $34K. Established casinos dominate the giving, but Rosemont Mayor Donald E Stephens’ committee has given $13,500 to Springfield-related committees (as opposed to the $10K he gave to Cook County committees).
- posted by Rich Miller Comments Off
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
Governor Rod Blagojevich was down in southern Illinois today to announce a multi-million-dollar clean coal initiative and help state Sen. Gary Forby’s campaign.
The governor heaped praise on the appointed incumbent, who is in a tough re-election race.
My brother was there (he owns a couple of papers in the region). “It was ‘Gary Forby Day,’” was how Devin described it.
UPDATE: From comments section comes this valuable insight:
As unpopular as Blagojevich is in Southern Illinois, this may blow up in Forby’s face, $15 million dollars or not.
- posted by Rich Miller 5 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
Sen. Pamela Althoff (R-McHenry) has bought Chicago broadcast TV time. No definite word yet on the buy’s size, but rumor has it at $200K.
Let’s see, Althoff and Patrick Ouimet are up. Sen. Pat Welch is on the air, as is his GOP opponent Gary Dahl. Morris Republican House candidate Doug Hayse has a tiny TV buy.
Can anyone remember a time when this many state legislative candidates have run Chicago television ads? Usually, it’s just one race a cycle, if that.
- posted by Rich Miller 3 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
I wrote this morning about how voters in Phil Crane’s district are being bombarded with mail and phone calls. This story is from the NorthWest Herald:
“This is just ridiculous,” said Kathy Lawrence of McHenry.
Lawrence said she has received 10 to 12 phone calls a day from politicians for the past few weeks. Some calls were recorded messages, others were real people, Lawrence said. [Snip]
Herman said the Bean campaign has completed thousands of live calls and one round of recorded calls. The campaign office has received about a dozen complaints regarding repeated calls, likely from other agencies.
“We don’t like to do [automated calls] because we don’t like to harass people,” Herman said. “We would like these groups to stop bothering people. We’ve never gotten complaints over something we’ve done.” [Snip]
John McGovern, a spokesman for the Illinois Republican Party, said it has made about 15,000 live calls in the region in support of U.S. Rep. Phil Crane, R-Wauconda, and President George W. Bush.
The group likely will begin making automated, or “robo,” calls this weekend, McGovern said.
“We even intend to be calling on election day to remind people to go vote,” said Mike Fourcher, spokesman for Democratic state senate candidate Pat Ouimet.
- posted by Rich Miller 1 Comment
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
Maybe because I work for myself, and I always voted after work at my previous jobs, I didn’t know this.
Employees in Illinois are entitled to two hours of leave to vote, but they must apply for leave before Election Day and employers may specify the time during the day that leave can be taken.
(10 ILCS 5/17‑15) (from Ch. 46, par. 17‑15)
    Sec. 17‑15. Any person entitled to vote at a general or special election or at any election at which propositions are submitted to a popular vote in this State, shall, on the day of such election, be entitled to absent himself from any services or employment in which he is then engaged or employed, for a period of 2 hours between the time of opening and closing the polls; and such voter shall not because of so absenting himself be liable to any penalty; Provided, however, that application for such leave of absence shall be made prior to the day of election. The employer may specify the hours during which said employee may absent himself as aforesaid. No person or corporation shall refuse to an employee the privilege hereby conferred, nor shall subject an employee to a penalty because of the exercise of such privilege, nor shall directly or indirectly violate the provisions of this section. (Source: Laws 1963, p. 2532.)
More state election leave laws at TimeToVote.net
- posted by Rich Miller 1 Comment
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
This yard sign was spotted near Sullivan. If someone could get me one of these, I’d be very appreciative.
- posted by Rich Miller 1 Comment
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
The NRCC just dumped $250,000 worth of TV ads into Congressman Phil Crane’s campaign today.
The latest estimate I’ve heard about the total spent by all interests in that campaign between the middle of this week and this coming Monday will be something like $3 million.
Wow.
- posted by Rich Miller 2 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
OneMan completely sums up the Keyes campaign while making fun of one of its testimonials from Rush Limbaugh.
Rush is quoted in Keyes’ new TV ad as saying, “In your heart you know he’s right.”
The Republican OneMan’s take on Keyes: “In your guts you know he’s nuts.”
- posted by Rich Miller 5 Comments
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Friday, Oct 29, 2004
We lead today with a State Journal-Register story written by Doug Finke about how the state may have to give the federal government a whole bunch of money. Oops.
Federal auditors contend Illinois was overpaid $140 million in Medicaid reimbursements, and they want the money back.
However, state officials plan to challenge the findings of auditors for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. [Snip]
The impact of the audit on the cash-strapped state is unclear. Dan White, spokesman for HHS’ Office of Inspector General, said that with Illinois challenging the findings, a resolution could take “six months, at least.” In many cases, states and the federal government negotiate a settlement that can be for a smaller reimbursement than is initially demanded.
Read the whole thing.
=====================================A story you might want to avoid is the Tribune’s south suburban legislative race article, which is just unbelievably weak.
Whatever. It’s reporting like that which has given me a such a good living, so I won’t complain too much.
A better Trib story is the profile of House Speaker Denny Hastert’s race against a fiesty challenger.
You’d have to be living under a rock the last year to miss the presidential and vice presidential races. But the campaign of the man two heartbeats from the presidency has hardly registered–particularly outside his staunchly Republican district, which starts in Chicago’s outer suburbs on the western edge of DuPage County and stretches through farmland almost to the Mississippi River.
=====================================Moving along, Illinois Leader co-founder Brian Timpone (an old buddy of mine from when he was the House GOP spokesman) has a new online newsletter in the Metro East that rips the trial lawyers a new one on a daily basis. A recent story lays out which individuals and firms have been contributing to, and on behalf of, Democratic Supreme Court candidate Gordon Maag.
Randall Bono, a powerful asbestos lawyer and former Madison County Judge, has dug into his pockets again donating another $200,000 to the newly formed Justice for All political action committee aimed at helping Illinois Supreme Court candidate Gordon E. Maag.
Bono had previously given $195,000 to help jump start the organization which launched an ad campaign promoting the positive qualities of trial lawyers.
In total, Justice for All has raised $850,000 with help from the East Alton firm of SimmonsCooper, Alton asbestos lawyer John Barry Julian and Bono.
It’s worth a look, especially these days.
=====================================The Daily Southtown has a piece today on Barack Obama stumping in GOP territory.
Obama, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, dropped behind enemy lines for a Democratic rally in Frankfort, a staunchly Republican suburb where Democrats often feel outnumbered.
“I think this is all of us,” joked one Frankfort resident, gesturing to the crowd of about 150 who gathered in a Halloween-decorated garden center to hear Obama, along with other Democrats running on Tuesday’s ballot.
The Southtown also has an AP story about the Statehouse shooter being indicted.
Chief Circuit Judge Robert Eggers announced at an afternoon court hearing that Derek W. Potts faces nine counts, including charges of first-degree murder, burglary and several gun violations.
Public Defender Brian Otwell said a report by psychiatrist Dr. Philip Pan of the Southern Illinois University School of Medicine found Potts, who has a history of mental illness, unfit to stand trial but capable of becoming so within a year under state mental health supervision.
- posted by Rich Miller 1 Comment
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
I guess we should have seen this coming.
With doctors fleeing Illinois because of sky-rocketing insurance rates and out-of-control lawsuits, an ailing “Flippy†the Dolphin suffered alone in dry-dock today, unable to carry on his tireless crusade to understand why Melissa Bean opposes tax relief.
Sadly, the dolphin’s condition worsened when he learned that Bean has no interest in remedying the doctor shortage or brining an end to what amounts to a “Health Tax†on consumers, preferring instead to remain in the tank with legal barracudas eager to sponge off our health care system and plumb the depths of excessive jury awards. [Big Snip]
Given the downturn in his condition, it appears increasingly unlikely “Flippy†will be able to meet Bean and attempt to understand why she is against delivering tax relief. The Democrat has dodged the friendly ‘phin at every stop this week, doing everything she can to avoid the question of taxes altogether.
Maybe we can still save Flipper by all clapping our hands and saying together: “I believe in anthropomorphic Republican dolphins. I believe!”
I get the feeling this is not my finest moment.
- posted by Rich Miller 3 Comments
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
Rockford just can’t catch a break.
Workers at the Amerock Corporation in Rockford have been told they will be out of a job in 60 days.
The maker of hardware for cabinets and windows announced in February that it planned to close the factory and lay off all 450 of its factory workers, but did not give a time line for the cuts. [Snip]
Amerock’s parent company, Newell Rubbermaid, moved its headquarters from Freeport to Atlanta last year.
Outsourcing has been a main factor in the decline of industrial employment in the Rockford area. Between 1998 and 2003, the region lost 11,800 manufacturing jobs.
Amerock’s clerical services, including distribution, customer service and human resources, were expected to remain in Rockford, but the company did not say for how long.
When will it end?
- posted by Rich Miller 4 Comments
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
Fabrizio-McLaughlin massaged some poll numbers in an interesting way this week.
The polling firm surveyed 800 likely voters in 12 battleground states earlier this week. The respondent selection, “was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state.”
The 12 states selected were: CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, WI.
When they totaled everything up, President Bush edged Sen. Kerry by two-tenths of a percentage point.
However, when the firm weighted the results to reflect 2000 presidential exit polls Kerry was ahead by 3.5 points. The firm also weighted to reflect Census results and Kerry was ahead by 5.2 percent. The turnout result is the more important set of numbers, I think, because it reflects past voting patterns and not just simple demographic makeup. To the charts…
First, the “raw” trend lines since the summer. (Also notice how Ralph Nader’s support is dropping):
Now, the latest battleground poll with the turnout and Census weighting:
And here’s the chart that shows the difference between the original, raw data and the exit poll and Census modified numbers.
I talked with Tony Fabrizio this afternoon. I wondered whether the exit poll and Census numbers were for those 12 states, and he said they were. Fabrizio also agrees that the exit poll numbers are the more valid guage of what may happen next week.
Does this mean that Bush is cooked? Not according to Fabrizio. What’s really needed is a state-by-state survey with the FabMac massage. Fabrizio thinks that Bush might pick up some of the states listed above that Al Gore won four years ago, specifically, those with low numbers of minorities.
- posted by Rich Miller 6 Comments
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
Links to things inside the State Board of Elections website don’t always work (the Board’s web guys aren’t people friendly), so just in case that one doesn’t function, this is what the link is to:
Patrick Ouimet for State Senate
A1 - $500+ 30 days prior to 2004 GE
Itemized Receipts
Illinois Senate Democratic Fund
P.O. Box 5537
Springfield, Â ILÂ 62705-5537
Transfer In
$295,000.00  on  10/28/2004
The A-1 was filed at 11:55:44 AM. As I told subscribers in this morning’s extra, the game is now totally on in the 32nd Senate District. Ouimet will be running Chicago broadcast TV this weekend. You have to subscribe for more details.
The next move belongs to the Senate Republicans.
- posted by Rich Miller Comments Off
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
Here’s a pretty good article about the Phil Crane vs. Melissa Bean race, but it tells us nothing about Flippy the Dolphin.
The Palatine Countryside fills the void:
Crane supporters have called Bean’s position on taxes “inconsistent.” Saturday a person dressed as “Flippy” the dolphin stood in Lake Zurich’s Paulus Park parking lot with other protesting Republicans calling Bean a “flip-flopper” as she, Durbin and Obama rallied her troops.
The Bean campaign called the accusations “desperate attacks.”
More on Flippy’s adventures from a Wednesday GOP press release:
A sorrowful “Flippy†the Dolphin attempted to deliver flowers to Democrat Melissa Bean today and learn more about why she opposes the permanent repeal of the Death Tax, which punishes hard working farmers, ranchers, and small business owners. Sadly for the dolphin, Bean had no interest in discussing the issue, and skated out a back door at an afternoon campaign event – leaving 8th District voters high and dry. [Snip]
Forced to wait outside as Bean plotted her escape, an exhausted and dejected Flippy began to notice he was coming down with a cold, brought on by a week’s worth of attempts to meet the person who wants to be his Congresswoman.
Undeterred by Bean’s slights, Flippy vowed to see a Doctor on Thursday and continue his quest to understand just who is Melissa Bean.
How’d you like to have, “2004: Played the part of ‘Flippy the Dolphin,’” on your resumé? I bet that shows up as “Political Operative” instead.
I wonder what they ended up doing with the flowers?
- posted by Rich Miller 1 Comment
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
Alan Keyes’ denial, or dishonesty, about his upcoming thumping borders on the pathological:
Media polls like the one showing him significantly trailing Democratic opponent Barack Obama are rarely accurate, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes said Wednesday.
Keyes, who spoke with reporters and a small group of supporters at the Peoria County Republican Party headquarters, said he’s finding people across the state are energized by his candidacy. His visit to the city came the same day his first campaign commercial hit televisions across the state.
“As I put it to my staff people, it’s like leaves on a tree in autumn. You get to a certain point where the leaves are ready to fall. Our commercials are the breeze,” Keyes said. “And the leaves will fall.”
Yeah, about 20 to 30 percent of them.
================================================
Keyes also had a few not-so-nice words about Illinois reporters:
“I have not been impressed with the standard of journalism in the state of Illinois,” he said. “I think it’s a disgrace to the people of this state that you all don’t do your jobs very well. You’ve got work to do because you’re not up to snuff.”
Any major party candidate who is trailing his opponent by 40 to 50 points less than a week before election day has no standing to tell anyone else that they suck at their jobs.
================================================
Here’s another media mention of the governor’s recent appearance in Elgin that barely drew a crowd:
Last week, the state’s most powerful Democrat, Gov. Rod Blagojevich, visited a county Democratic fund-raiser in Elgin, the first visit of his administration.
It was a powerful symbolic move to show county Democratic strength but at the same time exposed weaknesses in terms of political machines.
Only 70 people came to see the governor, far fewer than expected.
================================================
File this one under Oops:
Some state workers at the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation are not only losing their jobs - they’re also in danger of becoming victims of identity theft.
Included with some of the job-elimination notices distributed Monday to the 97 affected workers was a list containing more than 500 employees’ Social Security numbers.
“It was an error in compiling the list,” said Susan Hofer, a DFPR spokeswoman. “Only a small fraction of the packets went out with the Social Security numbers. We stopped distribution immediately and redacted the Social Security numbers. We are in the process of retrieving the erroneous list, and the employees are being cooperative.”
================================================
Meanwhile, the State Journal-Register didn’t post Bernie Schoenburg’s column on its website this morning.
- posted by Rich Miller 3 Comments
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
Here are the results of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll for the US Senate race that I wrote about today. You’ll have to go to the Centre for Public Opinion & Democracy for more info on the SLPD’s presidential results.
================================================Here’s that goofy Daily Herald story I wrote about today.
================================================
The Daily Southtown has a piece today about Congressman Jerry Weller being booed at last night’s debate with Democrat Tari Renner.
Renner drew applause from the hometown crowd while Weller, at one point, got booed. Tensions grew after the debate when Renner supporters tried to block a Weller aide and Weller’s fiancee from leaving through a side door.
The aide shoved a 75-year-old man wearing a Renner sticker who said everyone was supposed to leave through the front.
Weller’s staff called the scuffle a case of miscommunication. They got permission from police to leave through the side door, his staff said.
Tensions are always high at these events, but there’s no excuse for shoving an old lady. “Miscommunication.” Right. I’d make a wisecrack like, “Just because he married the daughter of a Latin American dictator doesn’t mean Weller should start strongarming Illinoisans,” but I think I’ll just let it pass.
================================================They missed some late entries yesterday, but here’s part of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s latest report:
With a week to go, three races in each chamber have crossed the million-dollar mark, and one race is knocking on $2 million. The 59th Senate District has drawn the most money, with the two candidates combining to show $1.9 million available for the general election. Following behind them are Sullivan/Ernst (47th) at $1.4 million and Welch/Dahl (38th) at $1.1 million.
In the House, the most expensive race is Slone/Schock, (92nd ) showing $1.1 million, while Grunloh/Reis (108th) and Gordon/Hayse (75th) both show $1.0 million. We’re not counting Capparelli/McAuliffe (20th) because, while they show $1.5 million available, we don’t expect even half of that to be spent by the end of the year.
================================================The Tribune has a decent feature on the Capparelli-McAuliffe House race, and a story about DuPage Republicans fending off the Democrats.
================================================If you just didn’t get enough of Tuesday’s Senate debate, here’s the video and the transcript.
The very best thing about Alan Keyes’ candidacy is his desire to share every word he says with the world. Because of that egotism, we have complete historical records of events like this week’s debate. Unfortunately for Keyes, those transcripts hurt him more than they helped.
- posted by Rich Miller Comments Off
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Thursday, Oct 28, 2004
Personal PAC’s Terry Cosgrove was interviewed this week by the Windy City Times. Read it if you want his take on some legislative races, but I thought the end was the most interesting part:
 We do four significant things for candidates. The first involves calling every female in a district and asking if they’re in favor of keeping the law on abortion the way it is or if they’re in favor of changing it. That way, we identify who’s pro-choice and who isn’t. If they want to keep it the way it is, then the person is pro-choice and we tell them [how the candidates stand on abortion.] We amass thousands of pro-choice voters in each district this way.
The second thing we then do is directly mail these voters. There are different pieces depending on the candidate and the district.
We also help candidates in other ways. For example, we also urge people to register to vote, which usually involves hiring a consultant. In Naomi [Jakobsson’s] case, we hired a coordinator who ran a program to register over 10,000 voters. We also provide campaign advice for candidates, which can involve providing campaign documentation or help with public speaking.
The last thing we do is make “Get out the vote†phone calls the last few days before the election. We remind them of the election date. That involves hundreds of callers in different precincts.
We don’t do a scatter-shot approach. One of the reasons I believe we have been successful is because we strategically choose our battles.
They call every female in the districts. That’s a big reason why Personal PAC has been so effective over the years. They really work it and they are super-organized.
And, yes, that’s “Hanoi Jane” in the photo.
- posted by Rich Miller Comments Off
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