The Capitol Fax Blog » Hyde stuff

Thursday, Mar 10, 2005

State Sen. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) is looking more and more like the far and away frontrunner to replace Congressman Henry Hyde if, as expected, Hyde retires.

Roskam is throwing a party tonight for his volunteers, and former attorney general Jim Ryan is billed as the host. Hundreds of people are expected to attend. The guy has built an amazing organization in DuPage and he is quickly rounding up lots of endorsements. There’s a chance that he may even clear the primary field.

Meanwhile, Democrat Christine Cegelis, who ran a respectable campaign against Hyde last year, has already announced that she’s running again. Cegelis posted a long diary entry on the Democratic website Daily Kos yesterday (hat tip to the So-Called Austin Mayor for the link).

As seasoned political advisor told me, if I wanted to win in 2006 I needed to start in November of 2004. I took that advice to heart and kept as much of my organization in place as possible to gear up for what is now will most likely be an open seat in 2006.

- posted by Rich Miller

9 Comments

- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 10, 05 @ 10:53 am:
Rich,
C’mon Roskam is a good candidate. But this guy already ran for Congress–remember? Who beat him? Biggert.
Who will beat him this time? Pankau. Pete is right of Hyde. Why do you think the Dem did a decent job? That District is changing with more moderates each day. There will be at least 7 people in that race and probably only one woman–Carole. One more thing, wouldn’t Pete have to give up his seat? Carole is mid-term. That’sa huge advantage.

- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 10, 05 @ 11:15 am:
Rich,
C’mon Roskam is a good candidate. But this guy already ran for Congress–remember? Who beat him? Biggert.
Who will beat him this time? Pankau. Pete is right of Hyde. Why do you think the Dem did a decent job? That District is changing with more moderates each day. There will be at least 7 people in that race and probably only one woman–Carole. One more thing, wouldn’t Pete have to give up his seat? Carole is mid-term. That’sa huge advantage.

- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 10, 05 @ 1:43 pm:
I don’t think that Cegelis is going to be the nominee. I know she ran a good campaign, but most of her success came from Kerry doing well in the district, he got 46%. Two points behind the top of the ticket isn’t bad, but it isn’t good either.

- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 10, 05 @ 2:06 pm:
I have heard that Pete O’Malley is thinking about a run. He works for the State and lives in DuPage. From what I hear, he has the ability to raise some serious cash. I don’t know much about him, but what I hear is that he is a good guy who is a moderate on the issues. Might be the right for the district.

- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 10, 05 @ 2:22 pm:
roskam is a great fit for that congressional district. he’s also a thoughtful, respected legislator. any good feelings that the dems have for themselves there are simply good feelings. pankau is certainly qualified but is really needed in the state senate.

- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 10, 05 @ 5:07 pm:
Hey! You guys are omitting Brickhead Joe Birkett from this mope off. I am sure he could stumble through the primary and then lose the seat to a D!
Come on let’s give Old Brickhead one more chance.

- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 10, 05 @ 5:56 pm:
If Christine Cegelis’s 44% of the vote in 2004 was only due to the Kerry vote, then why did Brett Christiansen only get 41% in his 2000 run against Hyde, even though the combined Gore/Nader vote in IL-06 was 47%? (And Brett spent more money than Cegelis.)

Regarding fundraising, Christine Cegelis has already raised more in the first TWO months of 2005 than any of the Dems major second-time challengers did in the first SIX months of 2006 (I am specifically referring to Bean, Thomas, Sullivan, and Romero). Besides, if money was all that mattered in elections, Blair Hull would be in the U.S. Senate right now!

I doubt any Dem challenger can match Cegelis’s 16 month head start out in that district.

- Anonymous - Saturday, Mar 12, 05 @ 12:13 pm:
Since Roskam was appointed to the state senate, it has been clear from day one that he is the heir apparent to Henry Hyde.

Peter Roskam is a great fit for the district. He has grassroot conservative support, while at the same time being a thoughtful, competent lawmaker.

His contacts and support in Washington will allow him to hit the ground running, when he is elected to Congress.

Sen. Cronin obviously saw what he was up against and decided to bow out. This was a smart decision.

- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 14, 05 @ 10:46 pm:
Two things in favor of the 6th flipping to the D-column in 2006. First, the demographics are making the District more Democratic at the rate of 1-2% per year. Secondly, 2006 will be a referendum on Bush, who will not be universally loved in the Blue States, or by the center, as his bugger-anyone-who-isn’t-rich will find an audience, Iraq or no Iraq. John Kerry The Stiff will not be a distraction this time. The one factor that could upset this prediction is a major Blagojevich scandal.

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