Another long setup.
First, let’s rerun the Tribune numbers I posted here last night, plus a few more.
Blagojevich 62
Eisendrath 18
Other 2
Undecided 18
Topinka 38
Oberweis 17
Gidwitz 11
Brady 8
Martin <1
Undecided 25
Birkett 27
Rauschenberger 20
Wegman 2
Bruckman 1
Mangieri 14
Giannoulias 10
Read the whole thing, but here are some excerpts from the Trib’s story:
Topinka, holding significant name recognition after winning statewide office three times, has gained 7 percentage points from a similar Tribune poll of GOP voters in October while Oberweis, who also has strong statewide name recognition, has picked up only 2 percentage points. Gidwitz, with a major TV ad budget, has gained 7 percentage points from the fall while Brady has picked up only 1 percentage point since then. […]
When Republican voters were asked to compare their own political beliefs to Topinka’s, 43 percent said they mostly agreed with her while 20 percent said she was not conservative enough and 5 percent said she was too conservative. […]
Gidwitz’s spending of more than $2 million has had some impact among voters. Now, fully 85 percent of voters recognize his name, yet a plurality-45 percent-has no opinion on whether they view him favorably or not. Brady, who has begun limited advertising, is known by 72 percent of the voters, but like Gidwitz, 45 percent have no opinion of him. […]
Oberweis also has voiced support for a referendum on the state ballot asking voters whether the state constitution should be amended to prohibit same-sex marriage. Fully 68 percent of GOP voters support such an amendment-including 86 percent of very conservative voters-while 21 percent do not support an amendment. […]
Only 35 percent of Democratic voters said Blagojevich has kept his 2002 campaign promise to end business as usual in Springfield, while 41 percent said he has broken that commitment. Democrats were also sharply divided-42 percent to 38 percent-on whether the state was headed in the right direction.
Barely half of Democrats-52 percent-said they would like to see Blagojevich re-elected, indicating that while there is appreciable unhappiness in the ranks with the current governor, many do not see Eisendrath as a viable alternative.
And for a little historical context, here’s an excerpt from the Tribune’s February 2002 gubernatorial poll:
[Jim] Ryan continues to hold a sizable lead, although O’Malley is gaining ground campaigning as the strong conservative. 49% prefer Ryan, down from 57% in January, while 18% prefer O’Malley up from 10%. Corinne Wood, campaigning as a moderate Republican who favors abortion rights, dropped to 18% from 21% in January, and her favorable rating has fallen below her unfavorable rating.
Analyze it.