The Meeks beat
Wednesday, May 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
My syndicated newspaper column this week talks about a poll conducted by Sen. James Meeks, a potential third-party candidate for governor. Details about MoE, survey size, etc. can be found in the full piece.
According to the survey, Gov. Blagojevich’s “generic” re-election numbers are not that great. When asked whether he deserves re-election, just 36 percent agree, compared to 55 percent who want someone else. Nine percent didn’t know. Blagojevich’s job approval is 35 percent, with 45 percent disapproving and 20 percent not knowing. But even with those lousy numbers, for the first time since the primary Blagojevich is leading Judy Baar Topinka, 47-40.
When Meeks is tossed into the equation, Blagojevich leads with 41, Topinka has 34, Meeks has 12, and 13 percent are undecided. After several “push questions,” which were designed to test Meeks’ message of his religious affiliation, his opposition to gay marriage and abortion and his support of billions more in school funding, Blagojevich drops to 37 percent while Meeks and Topinka are tied at 25 percent each. Undecideds remain at 13 percent.
This last result, with Blagojevich still leading after the “push” questions and Meeks hurting Topinka much more, could help Meeks ward off critics, especially in the black community, who claim that his candidacy would destroy the Democratic governor’s chances.
This is also pretty much exactly where Meeks said he needed to be to even consider a run. Meeks said shortly before the poll was taken that he wanted, at a minimum, to be at 10 percent in the pre-push horse race question, and then have that doubled after the push. He exceeded both of those goals.
Meeks also included a question about the arguments for and against his run. Just 27 percent agreed with the statement that Meeks should not run because “an Independent African-American candidate from Chicago could doom Governor Blagojevich’s chances of winning re-election.” But 56 percent agreed with the statement that Meeks should run “because the Democrats have taken blacks and others for granted and it’s time for a change.”
Meanwhile, a Sun-Times story this week discussed Meeks and the anti gay marriage referendum.
Redfield said the same-sex marriage issue may boost the number of social conservatives at the polls in November, thus helping Downstate conservative candidates, Republicans vying for seats in the Legislature and state Sen. James Meeks if he decides to make a third-party run for governor.
About 4,300 signatures for the referendum were collected at Salem Baptist Church, where Meeks is pastor.
“If Sen. Meeks runs and wants to emphasize the social conservatism as kind of his hook, then it may turn out that Sen. Meeks would help the proposition and the proposition would help Sen. Meeks,” Redfield said.
- ChiliMan - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 5:39 am:
I’m a moderate on the abortion issue, but I don’t get some nominally pro-life people saying they’re not voting for Meeks because he supports higher taxes. If you strongly believe that abortion is tantamount to murder, then wouldn’t feduciary issues such as taxes be a mere secondary concern if you could have more restrictions and save lives.
I have nothing wrong with someone saying that they care about low taxes as much as they do about being pro-life, but don’t go around saying that you believe that a fetus in its earliest stages has a life that must be protected from murder if you’re willing to sell out that principle over taxes.
- Marta Elena - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 6:45 am:
I am just the opposite when it comes to abortion issues. As a woman, it is a private issue and its something discussed between us women folk and not government officials. I personally view myself as pro life but do not condone someone who has had one in the past. I’m pro life but belief the option should be available to anyone who is pro choice.
On that note, I have supported conservative candidates in the past - for me, it is a matter of whether the candidate has the necessary credentials to hold office/run an office, etc; and whether they have lead a good campaign.
I have disagreed on some of their social conservative values but feel that looking at the person on their stance on public policy issues is more important.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 7:07 am:
The majority voters don’t like B, don’t trust B, don’t think he deserves reelection, but will still vote him?
Factual? I think not.
- DOWNSTATE - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 7:14 am:
I just wish this guy would go away.He has had his 15 minutes of fame and he is going to get some payolla as soon as the Blago bunch can figure out how to unload the tollway system.As far as his poll to show you how accurate they are he says 7% and Blago’s says 10% lead I think I will stick with Rasmussen until another independent poll comes out.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 7:39 am:
This is an issue where the race of the proponent helps, IMHO. A black pro-life candidate is more politically correct than a white one, at the margins of moderate voters.
- Exit stage left - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 7:48 am:
Meek’s act is growing really old. He’s not going to run, he knows he’s not going to run…some people just can’t let go of the media spotlight.
- Cal Skinner - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 8:08 am:
I believe that the Rev. and Senator Meeks is running for Mayor of Chicago.
He was on Chicago TV talking about improvements that the Chicago Police should make two days ago. Isn’t that what black politicians do to energize their base?
- B Hicks - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 8:11 am:
It’s funny how things change. One month ago all the Judy lovers wanted Meeks to run. Now, they just want him to go away.
You can rest assured that he’s not bluffing. He’s not afraid to run.
- Exit stage left - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 8:38 am:
B Hicks….it’s funny how you and others always assume if people disagree with you they’re Topinka supporters. Nice try…but even someone like has to see Meeks is a media hound.
I’ll await your cookie-cutter response.
- grand old partisan - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 8:46 am:
ChiliMan, speaking as someone who meets that description, allow me to explain: as Governor, neither Meeks nor Topinka can really do a whole lot about abortion. The few things that they might possible be able do are mostly in the areas in which Topinka is on the pro-life side (partial birth ban, parental notification, etc). An outright ban or criminalization is NEVER going to be passed by the legislature of this state, as it is currently (and likely to be for the foreseeable future) composed. On the other hand, taxes are certainly something that a Gov can influence. Higher taxes (in the guise of the “swapâ€) are the very basis of Meek’s candidacy. So what I don’t get are the Topinka critics on the right who are saying that they’d rather swallow a guaranteed tax hike along with a purely symbolic victory on a social issue instead of voting for a candidate of comparatively responsible fiscal leadership and mainstream social values.
That being said, I’m willing to bet that Meek’s push poll didn’t mention one word about the most important part of his platform – the “swap.†If it did, I think you’d see a much picture. At the very least, Meeks might hurt them both equally.
- DOWNSTATE - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 8:57 am:
B Hicks this so-called Minister said that if Blago could not come up with 6 billion and a couple of other demands he would run.Well it is getting to late to run and all he got from Blago was a kick in the seat of the pants.They did have enough sense to wait until he left the room to start laughing.UUmmm I wonder if this Minister has ever heard “thou shall not lie”.
- B Hicks - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:35 am:
ESL…it’s funny how you and others always assume that Meeks is bluffing. How do you know that he’s not serious? What inside connection do you have? Senator Meeks, with the help of his 20,000+ congregation and a few hundred AFSCME members, could easily come up with the signatures, and I don’t foresee money being a big issue for the senator.
If he is in it just for the attention, how does it affect you? What do you care?
- ChiliMan - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:42 am:
That’s a good answer GOP. I was thinking of guys like Roeser who say they won’t vote Topinka because of her not being pro-life and then say that they won’t vote Meeks because he’ll raise taxes. Kinds of sounds pro-life is playing second fiddle to pocket book with his ilk.
- Lincoln's Logs - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:57 am:
Rich — Love the photo of Meeks holding “Capitol Fax.” Enjoy your vacation.
- anonymous - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 10:29 am:
Meeks is living proof that at least some African-Americans now take the civil rights movement for granted, since it’s apparently now ok to deny equal rights to particular people who want nothing more than to live their average lives in peace. Get this bigot off the political stage, fast.
- Central IL - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 11:03 am:
Wouldn’t it be hilariously ironic if the main effect of Blago’s negative ads against Topinka was to deliver more support to Meeks and encourage him to enter the race?
There are a lot of downstate Democrats who don’t like Blagojevich. Most of them don’t want to vote for a Republican, but they might vote for an independent.
- anon - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 12:29 pm:
Good article Rich.
- Meeks Factor - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 12:36 pm:
Hicks, I agree, Meeks is crazy enough to run, but he will wimp out at the last minute. He’s best at grand standing and playing the race/victim card.
- Shaft - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 1:42 pm:
RUN MEEKS RUN
MEEKS CAN WIN
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 2:24 pm:
GOP - according to earlier reports, Meek’s poll does mention the tax swap question, although I think it was phrased more flatly as a “raise income taxes and expand sales taxes to fully fund K-12 education and dramatically reduce property taxes” or some language like that.
Keep in mind that there is a solid, significant base of voters who buy into the tax swap. Maybe not a clear majority yet, but with education the #1 issue for voters in every poll I’ve seen, it’s enough to give Meeks a working base in a three-way race. Not enough for him to win, but that one issue is enough to put him in strikng distance.
- grand old partisan - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 2:39 pm:
YDD, thanks for the correction. Allow me to revise:
I’m willing to bet that if Meek’s push poll actually told the truth about the “swap,†it would be a different picture.
I mean, come on. The “swap†isn’t going to “dramatically reduce†property taxes. It’s going to temporarily abate them. The overall tax burden for a significant number of voters is going to significantly rise. That’s the only way to significantly increase the amount of money available for schools. Period. That may sound over-simplistic, but it the undeniable truth.
So, while you are right that there is a significant base of voters who buy into the “swap.†(after all, Meeks wouldn’t be proposing it if it didn’t benefit someone. I don’t agree with the man on the issues, but he’s certainly not an idiot.), I think you are overstating it to say that is enough to put him in striking distance. Remember what happened when the Trib helped everyone better understand exactly what the swap would mean to their average taxes by zip code.
To anyone who thinks it’s a keen idea: I’ll “swap†you two tens for a five.
- Anon - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 3:05 pm:
Once again, all of the original Bill’s posts are deleted.
The truth must really hurt.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 3:36 pm:
Original Bill is in moderation because last week I warned people not to post about something or they’d be banned and he did it anyway.
- Disgusted - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 4:48 pm:
If he runs, the Rev. Senator Meeks had better extend his statement about how “…if a man works 8 hours a day, he deserves a raise” to include all the men (and women) who are merit comp. workers for Illinois. Otherwise, he’s just another politician.
- guest32 - Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 4:55 pm:
Meeks is running. Trust me.