The Sun-Times runs a story that looks into whether the state can really get $10 billion for the lottery.

“No one will give them $10 billion,” said Kip Peterson, president of Transnational Market Development, a Georgia consulting firm that has helped start 16 lotteries worldwide.

Because the lottery only generates $500 to $600 million in profits annually, it would take nearly 20 years to earn back the initial investment, he said. “It just doesn’t make sense financially.” […]

“There seems to be a market,” said Ted Damutz, a vice president with the Chicago office of Moody’s Investor Service. “Lots of European companies are already in the market for privatizing lottery systems. But it’s hard to know about this $10 billion. They still have to work out a lot of details.”

On the other hand…

Blagojevich staffers says they’ve considered those variables and stand by their $10 billion figure, saying it’s based on the value of current earnings. The $1.8 billion Skyway lease is 60 times the value of its annual earnings. They only expect to bring in 15 times the value of the lottery’s earnings.

“We have complete confidence in our numbers,” said Becky Carroll, Blagojevich’s budget spokeswoman.

That’s a good point about the Skyway.

Meanwhile, the Sun-Times editorial page doesn’t like the idea.

This latest idea from the desk of Gov. Blagojevich is long on merit but short on a real solution for long-term funding. […]

But this funding plan would last only until 2024, and then what? Luckily for the governor, he doesn’t have to worry about that because he won’t be in office then. […]

We have to wonder, along with state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R-Elgin), that if this were such a splendid program, why was it not introduced while the General Assembly was in session. “To do this now seems so overtly political and self-serving,” Rauschenberger says. “There is a lot of cynicism out there already.” Cynics are most apt to believe that after four years Blagojevich will be long gone but the lawmakers in Springfield will still be scratching their heads about how to invest in our schools, and the real losers will be our grandchildren.

And a Tribune story today begins the nit-picking that the plan will surely be bombarded with over the next few months (if it even survives that long).

Virtually every aspect of the agenda–from state takeover of failing schools to merit pay for teachers to mandated after-school tutoring–has its skeptics and detractors.

And Krol makes a point so well that I’ve had to rework my Sun-Times column.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich is no stranger to calling for radical changes to education in Illinois - but he’s also frequently backed away from his plans.

In the past three years, the freshman governor has advocated doubling the number of gaming positions to generate money for schools, legalizing Keno to pay for building schools, giving parents of college students $1,000 tax credits, and getting rid of the State Board of Education. None of those proposals became reality, with Blagojevich eventually backing down on each of them.

So, it’s understandable that a day after proposing the sale of the Illinois Lottery to get $10 billion up front to give more money to schools, one question that loomed large was whether Blagojevich is serious this time.

Bernie makes the same sort of argument.

But it’s possible that the Blagojevich plan could actually work to Topinka’s advantage. If the governor’s proposal is seen by the larger electorate as merely a ploy to sidetrack Meeks and give the governor another issue on which he might not deliver, there could be a backfire factor.

After all, in 2002, Blagojevich talked a lot about a new venture capital fund to create jobs. He advertised its benefits. But he never got it through the legislature. Even this spring, the governor advertised that he was fighting for his “jobs” plan, using a dubious figure for the number of jobs he wanted to create. The legislature didn’t pass that either.

UPDATE: YDD makes some interesting points. Read the whole thing.