The Capitol Fax Blog » Rasmussen: 44-36-9

Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006

Rasmussen did a poll last week before the Rezko indictment which found Rod Blagojevich leading Judy Baar Topinka 49-43-3. Unlike the Tribune, which also polled pre-Rezko, Rasmussen realized that his numbers were no good and did the responsible thing by going back into the field.

The new poll is up (although it’s still behind a subscriber firewall) and Blagojevich leads Topinka and Whitney 44-36-9. Five percent say “other” and 6 percent say they’re unsure. Real Clear has the guv at 45, but I have the crosstabs and it’s 44.

Here’s the most interesting aspect of the poll. 24 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Blagojevich, while 22 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Topinka. Nobody said they were certain Whitney voters.

- posted by Rich Miller

46 Comments

- Guy Fawkes - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 3:40 pm:
If the election ends up close just remember the Chicago factor.
Here’s quote from Josef Stalin
The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.

- Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 3:51 pm:
Despite all the ramblings on both (all three) sides, one thing is clear - this is still very much a race.

And Guy, your observation is valid, but you have to ask yourself just who it is that the powers that be actually want to win this thing.

- RickG - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 3:57 pm:
So…rezko gets indicted, and BOTH candidates lose points. Topinka even lost ground.

This isn’t a race. Judy has not given voters a reason to punch her number except that she’s not Rod. Well, neither is Whitney, and he’s taking a good chunk of her support.

- Common Sense in Illinois - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:01 pm:
I was about to make Rick’s point…the governor’s buddy gets indicted and JBT loses 7 points…go figure that one out!

- Fan of the Game - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:03 pm:
Rick,

I was surprised, also, especially since Whitney’s stances are more liberal than the governor’s. I can’t imagine how a scandal involving Blagojevich hurts Topinka. Confusing.

However, I agree with you that Topinka has given voters no reason to punch her ticket, and that could be her downfall, regardless of the scandals that touch the governor.

- Squideshi - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:03 pm:
Seems that 54% of Illinois voters aren’t certain whom they’re going to vote for. That means this election could go to ANY of the three candiates.

- The Townhall - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:07 pm:
Governor Blagojevich is without a doubt desperate to be re-elected. That way, we the taxpayers will be footing his legal bills.

- Citizen A - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:09 pm:
Rich, what is the historical record of accuracy for this poll at this timeframe in the campaign process? Also what track record of success do other polls have? I expect the Rezko scandal should have more impact tomorrow whether he shows for his arraingment or becomes an international fugitive.

- Guy Fawkes - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:16 pm:
What time is Big Tony’s arraingment tomorrow?

- Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:18 pm:
We’re less than three weeks from election day. What is there left for Judy to do to close the gap? I don’t think anything she does will matter, and I don’t think Rod’s getting indicted in the next month (though I would put money on him being indicted by this time next year).

- Citizen A - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:19 pm:
If Fitz, or rather when Fitz indicts Blago the taxpayer won’t foot his defense bill any more than we did G Ryans - I’m sure Blago would tap his campaign fund and do fundraisers to fill his defense coffers. That is unless, in all probability, Fitz declares the campaign fund (like G Ryans) a criminal enterprise and confiscates those funds. That is Fitzgeralds track record as he proceeds up the ladder to the top of the criminal enterprise. It’s history AND it’s prophetic. The very real question is will he do it before the election or after. A real public service would be performed if the indictments came down in the next couple of weeks . . .my guess is that some will.

- RickG - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:21 pm:
You know what, though, Squid…it’s not.

I’m from Joliet. I have a stepfather who worked in management for ComEd for 30 years (he built Braidwood and Byron’s plants and completely re-wrote their safety manual, among many other things) and is now retired, and a mother who’s been a schoolteacher for 27 years.

Both vote regularly. Combined they have 6 degrees from college — 2 from the Naval Academy, one from Wisconsin, one from Illinois, one from Lewis, and one from IBC.

They’re smart, informed people.

I went home this weekend. Neither of them knew who Rich Whitney was. Never heard the name. I didn’t see a single Whitney sign in my (admittedly brief) trip through town. I didn’t even see many along I-55 between Bloomington, where I was for the football game, and Joliet.

Will County is one of the ten fastest growing counties in the country. If you want to get people who have never voted in Illinois before, that’s a good place to start. And there’s absolutely no penetration. None.

Even in counties that major-party candidates lose, they still get 35% of the vote. They get SOME support, which helps lead to the total number.

It was an eye-opener for me, since I live in southern Illinois where everyone is pretty well aware of three candidates.

The point is, I can’t vote for Whitney because I just don’t see him as a viable candidate. Not without better exposure. And, I’m not alone. There will be some suburbanites and Chicago residents who walk into the box, look at the choices, see a third option, and say “you know what…I’m choosing this guy. That’ll teach ‘em”. But it won’t be near enough, and as was pointed out above 0% of registered voters are going into the polls specifically to punch Whitney’s ticket.

I WANT another viable option. It’s not there, not yet, but the Green Party will make significant headway in Illinois during this election.

- DOWNSTATE - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:24 pm:
When is Levine going to start singing.As far as Tony I imagine he holed up with some of his Hamas buddies.

- HANKSTER - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:42 pm:
Looking at all the polls, I think it is very possible that those voting either way based on corruption are and have been accounted for. This might explain why we dont see large movement for or against one specific candidate with news of corruption.

- TOONrefugee.com - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:42 pm:
Here’s another take on the governor’s race; A generic campaign/wanted poster: http://toonrefugee.com/
toonblog/politics
/illinois-governor-generic-
campaignwanted-poster/32

- Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:44 pm:
I think the real question is how many of the Whitney voters are protest voters and will they eventually vote for Blagojevich or Topinka, or decide on the lesser of two evils? The number of undecideds at this stage of the game is another factor.

This election may still be up in the air. The polls show a confused and angry electorate. And like a confused and angry dog, you don’t know who it will bite.

- anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:44 pm:
Of course she is going to lose points since the Rezko indictment, Guv. Hairdo has upped the amount of airtime of negative ads to the point that I miss actual commercials now. This guy airs 4-5 very very negative ads that are nothing but lies & half-truths, then puts out and ad that whines again about Topinka having a negative ad that is really just footage of his own dumbass mistake.

I think the estimation of him spending $12million of his warchest at this point is way too low. this guy is clutching for straws and is doing everything he can to smear her so that voters forget about his scandals.

He’s a gutless coward.

- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:12 pm:
RickG, there’s a chicken-and-egg problem with non-major party candidates.

Blagojevich and Topinka got tons of free media before Whitney even qualified for the ballot. Of course the media had the excuse that minor party candidates don’t usually qualify for the ballot b/c of the unfairness of Illinois election law.

After Whitney qualified for the ballot the media didn’t cover him because his poll numbers were no good.

Now that Whitney is polling at nine percent–not a whole lot lower than Topinka–the media still doesn’t cover Whitney.

If you want the media to take non-major party candidates seriously, you have to vote for the non-major party candidates that appear on the ballot.

If Whitney does well it will create pressure for the media to cover non-major party candidates in the future.

- Reddbyrd - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:24 pm:
Hmmm…Here we go again.
Another week, another poll, another homerun for GRod.
Is it time to remind all that while all wrong doing must, should and will be prosecuted
the allegations against GRod are not as big a drag as Brickhead is on JudyBore.

Meanwhile: Cards 6 Mets 1 and on to Detroit.

- RoseyB - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:24 pm:
Guy and Anon 3:51 â€“

The Cook County election will be stolen after the polls close; it is almost irresistibly easy and observers will never see it happening. But the people doing the work will only care about Stroger-Peraica. There may be some Blago fans that make the effort but he has no obvious base of supporters even in his hometown.

- Squideshi - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:26 pm:
RickG, that’s strange, because the Joliet Herald News, the big daily in Will County, did a survey, and something like 83% said that they would be willing to consider voting for Whitney.

- RickG - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:29 pm:
Carl –

That’s a valid point, of course. But let’s be realistic. Here are the options this time around.

1) 4 more years of Blagojevich
2) 4 years of Topinka
3) 4 years of Whitney

These are in order of ‘most likely’. They are also, to me, in reverse order of ‘most preferred’.

So say what you will about me — I prefer the best likely option. That’s a vote for Judy, even though I don’t know what she’d do as Governor.

And I think there are a heck of a lot of people like me.

One thing I don’t understand though, is why the GP hasn’t concentrated its efforts, really concentrated them, on getting representatives and senators elected in the districts where they are strongest. I don’t think many people in Rich Whitney’s home district could tell you that there IS an opponent to Mike Bost this time around, let alone that it’s a green party candidate, let alone his name. The ration of Whitney to Howe signs that I see in that district is easily greater than 100 to 1. Why not use small victories to build up public opinion?

- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:29 pm:
Squid, was that a poll or an online survey? Try not to be like the major party candidates, OK?

- RickG - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:31 pm:
Squid, in this election 83% of people would say they would ‘consider’ voting for ME if I was put up as an option against JBT and Rod. That doesn’t indicate knowledge of a candidate. It indicates a desire for change and a dissatisfaction with the current major party options.

IMO, anyway.

- grateful - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:43 pm:
Yes Things are CLOSE and don’t be deceived

Gov. Says alot of FALSE statements

Like he has solved the BUDGET and Made BETTER !!

THIS is a BIG LIE !!!!

Spending money you don’t have or Will never Have
is not solving the Budget.

He and John Filan has been very diligent about
penalizing the HARD working people of ILLINOIS

WAKE UP AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS / THANKS

- Truth - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:02 pm:
Was Red once prosecuted by Birkett? Because the guy/gal will not let up on him. Joe is definitely on Red’s mind every time he/she posts.

- the Other Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:13 pm:
I was talking with a person I thought was in the “certain to vote for Blagojevich” category. I said that I voted for Whitney; and, surprisingly, this person said they were seriously considering the same option.

Yeah, (almost) no one is going to the polls specifically to vote for Whitney; I sure as heck wasn’t. But I ended up putting an “x” by his name, and I’m surprised by the number of solid Dems who say they will, too.

Having said that, I don’t think Whitney will win, or even come close. But 9-12% — Ross Perot numbers, if you will — is still pretty significant for a third party in Illinois.

This does provide a jumping off point for serious challenges for Green seats in the GA in 2008. None happened this year because the filing requirements to field a new party are too high.

- Reddbyrd - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:25 pm:
The Brick is on the minds of many in IL, hence JudyBore trails.
No one wants the poster boy for wrongful prosecutions in any authority position. It is simple and clear and really not open to a whole lot of debate.

- Lovie's Leather - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:34 pm:
“wrongful prosecutions” Reddbyrd?!!!!!! There are tons of wrongful prosecutions that happen each year!!! It happens. Evidence points to a suspect, and that suspect is truly innocent! I guess the guy just shouldn’t do his job, right???

- annie - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:17 pm:
Blago is going to lose taking down the likes of Bob Flider.

- Lovie's Leather - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:34 pm:
I just went to Flider’s website… I figured that he was a democrat if Blago was going to “take him down.” You can’t find a thing about being a democrat, or pics of him with any other democratic candidate. I had to go to the ILGA website to find out his party!!!

- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:44 pm:
I know Rich and I have been talking B-movie Zombies with Topinka as the Zombie and Blagojevich cornered and panicked as she comes ever closer.

But an uglier reality and movie classic we will witness is the final scenes in “Raiders of the Lost Arc”. Blagojevich and his flying monkeys will open the arc as Topinka and Whitney are tied to pols.

The scandals, corruption, federal fraud investigations and Fitzgerald himself will explode out of the arc at the very moment of Blagojevich’s triumph. We will witness Rod’s, Abby’s, and Monk’s face melt into ghoulish goo as they scream at what they’ve unleashed.

Topinka and Whitney will yell towards one another to keep their eyes closed as Fitzgerald sweeps the corrupted politicians into the swirling whorl of destruction. Topinka will assure Whitney that keeping her eyes shut tightly kept her alive when Ryan opened the Arc and was swept away.

When the lid of the arc slams, Illinois voters will look exhaustedly at the mess left behind by Ryan and Blagojevich. Then they will file the arc and lose it again within the massive Smithsonian archives to be once again rediscovered by the next corrupted governor.

In all seriousness, Blagojevich isn’t going to sit on his $50 million dollar slush fund and not spend every dime to stay in power. He will unleash carpet bombing upon voters that will further drag everyone down with him. Topinka hasn’t see negative campaigning like the one Blagojevich’s flying monkeys plan to unleash to save their boss from political defeat.

Do you think the election is ugly yet? Just wait!

Finally, the polls are useless right now. The fallout from the indictment and indictments to come hasn’t fully impacted voters. As Levine squeals, Rezko hides, and Topinka smells victory, Blagojevich will unleash a nuclear political attack we’ve never yet seen.

Be afraid. Be very afraid!

- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 9:28 pm:
VM, that was gross. Spot on, but gross. I may never be able to watch that movie again.

- Poll Numbers - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:03 pm:
I think these polling numbers relate back to Rich’s previous question about whether JBT should go positive or negative. These numbers tell me, she MUST go positive and give the voters a reason to vote for her and explain her vision for Illinois. Blago’s numbers keep eroding and she needs to demonstrate a reason FOR people running from him to vote for her.

- Angie - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:03 pm:
Re: “A real public service would be performed if the indictments came down in the next couple of weeks . . .my guess is that some will.”

A real public service would be for someone like Fitz to run for Illinois Governor, because after this election, I’m just about ready to give up bothering. Where this ideal candidate is, I don’t know, but he (or she) is long overdue.

- M.V. - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:49 pm:
RickG, the only reason not to vote for the person who you think is going to win (as opposed to the one you think is better) is if you have a wager riding on the election. Otherwise, it really doesn’t make much sense.

If you are only going to vote for viable candidates, then you generally only have one choice in any given race, because most elections are lopsided. With that logic, what is the point of voting?

- TheDan - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 1:40 am:
ersonally I plan on throwing away my vote on Whitney. If nothing else, I’m flipping off the two parties who tell me these two clowns are the best they have to offer.

This is a first time run in Illinois for the Greens. I think they’re doing surprisingly well, and in upcoming elections, the other parties will go negative on them too (haaa…).

If you disucss issues and position papers, Whitney is the most qualified candidate.

If you talk about electability or money, he’s at a disavantage.

You know what’s funny? I know people who don’t vote for the candidate they think is most qualified.

They try to pick the winner and watch the news to see if they guessed right.

That’s just a shame too. I suppose we voters get what we deserve.

- Phil Huckelberry - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 2:10 am:
U.S. Grant’s approach during the Civil War was to bleed the Confederacy to death. It looks like where Blago got his inspiration from.

The Rezko indictment is legitimately a big deal, but I’m not sensing that it’s very well understood by the general public. They lump it in with scandals generally. What Blago seems to have done is create such an overwhelmingly negative campaign that even the Rezko story doesn’t really impact the status quo. More people get fed up but more people tune out as well.

The numbers stink for Topinka. She can’t make a serious dent in the lead. Blago has done such an excellent job of controlling the presentation of the campaign and Judy’s done an awful job of outflanking him.

The wild card in all this, of course, is Rich Whitney. Rich is getting more media attention now, but he’s not getting a lot of front pages yet. But that might soon change. The 9% he’s at now is indicative of his relatively low name recognition compared to the other two, but the name recognition continues to rise, and once he’s hovering in the solid double digits, and once the election gets closer and coverage gets more focused, there will be more buzz. If he manages to alter the dynamic of the campaign away from Blago’s scorched earth approach, it’s anyone’s guess what happens next.

Rich has already ascended from “irrelevant” to “marginal” in the media generally and “viable” for a lot of the media. When he crosses the next threshold, from “viable” to whatever you want to call it - and this is going to happen in the next 10 days, if the media lets it happen - then you’ll see a dramatic campaign shift.

- RickG - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 5:29 am:
MV, all due respect, I think we’re differing on semantics.

I’ll vote for the candidate that is most likely to make my life better. In many races that means voting for the guy I like. In some races — like this one — it means working to remove the guy I don’t like.

- RickG - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 5:31 am:
Also — I don’t think it’s a voter’s job to make a candidate. I think it’s a CANDIDATE’S job to make a candidate. So I don’t for one second buy the “you should vote for a third party candidate to help build that party” line. That’s not my job.

This election isn’t about building a party — it’s about choosing a Governor.

Hey, thanks everyone for keeping the discussion out of the gutter, at least for the most part. Doesn’t always happen.

- Jechislo - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 6:43 am:
Angie 11:03 pm—–
The ideal candidate was, and is, Bill Brady.

- Bill - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 7:02 am:
Bill Brady would have been an excellent candidate and given the voters a real choice between two different philosophies of the role of government in peoples lives.
He has the credibility that Topinka lacks.

- Anonymous - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 7:43 am:
Is Judy out of funds? She has done nothing with the Rezko indictments. It’s getting a little late in the game. I feel like she has given up already.I keep seeing the same old ads. Now she’s rerunning the old check ads. Polls show this didn’t work the first time. If anything she lost points. She better get out of the bubble of her political office and staff who are probably telling her how they’ve got Rod on the ropes. The clock is ticking. Hire a new consultant. Whatever she’s doing is not working.

- Cassandra - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 9:08 am:
Illinois voters likely see Illinois politics for what is is….a bipartisan combine at the top.
Scandals are interchangeable, with Ryan stories reminding them of Blago’s ethical challenges and
Rezko stories reminding them of all the bad Republican history of recent years. Corruption stories hurt both candidates, regardless of whether the alleged crooked pol is Republican or Democratic.

Remember the story (perhaps apocryphal) about the downstate lady who asked if the Ryan on trial was the one who went to sex clubs with hsi wife. Many Illinoisians may not be sure if Rezko is an alleged Republican or alleged Democratic crook.

- Tessa - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 11:33 am:
God forbid, but I have to agree with you Cassandra. Most people in Illinois don’t pay enough attention to what’s going on and don’t know who these people are.

They don’t realize that what is going on in the Illinois political scene right now is going to affect everyone’s lives for years to come. Serious changes need to be made. Of course, your “every day tax payer” needs to pay more attention to things also, not just whether or not taxes might be raised. People need to get involved and speak up, learn about the people running for office, learn about the issues and read the news.

- JakeCP - Friday, Oct 20, 06 @ 3:37 pm:
The only polls I depend on are the polls on election day.

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