The Capitol Fax Blog » Roskam, Bean both leading

Friday, Oct 20, 2006

The best news for Duckworth is the number of undecided voters. Bean has pretty much fallen off the national radar, but 50 percent is not enough.

The candidates for the west suburban congressional seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Henry Hyde are locked in a tight contest while first-term Rep. Melissa Bean holds a sizable advantage over her main rival in the northwest suburbs, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows. […]

In the 6th District, which has been viewed as reliably Republican under Hyde’s lengthy tenure, Roskam had the support of 43 percent of the voters compared to 39 percent for Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran, with 17 percent undecided. […]

In the 8th Congressional District, where Bean two years ago defeated longtime Republican Rep. Phil Crane, the poll showed the Democrat has the support of 50 percent of the voters, compared to 31 percent for McSweeney and 4 percent for third-party candidate Bill Scheurer of Lindenhurst. Another 14 percent were undecided.

As usual, the high and mighty Chicago Tribune won’t share its crosstabs with the little people.

- posted by Rich Miller

12 Comments

- surfer - Friday, Oct 20, 06 @ 10:54 pm:
Duckworth’s got a massive buy of a pretty good Obama ad running on all of the Chicago nets tonight. This is the real test of his star power, Mangieri was chump change in comparison.

- GOPGal - Saturday, Oct 21, 06 @ 12:23 am:
I think the NRCC ads attacking Bean are not helping McSweeney.

First, most people can’t even name their own Congressman, let alone know who Pelosi is. And second, the ad is way too over-the-top to be believable.

Talking to my contacts in DC, they said that they are hearing complaints from other congressional candidates who are being negatively effected by the NRCC ads also.

McSweeney should tell the NRCC thanks, but no thanks.

- Lovie's Leather - Saturday, Oct 21, 06 @ 1:48 am:
Meh… Go Bean! Go Roskam! Finally, polls I won’t gag at! About flippin’ time….

- A WISE OLD MAN - Saturday, Oct 21, 06 @ 1:20 pm:
While I am hoping for Republicans pulling out the 6th and 8th district races, I am thoroughly disgusted at the exploitation of the immigration issue in this General Election campaign, especially in the 6th district. Didn’t the Jim Oberweis U.S. Senate campaign of 2004 teach conservatives anything, like demogouging against illegals and using props like Solider Field turns off Hispanic voters who are citizens and also want immigration laws enforced, regardless of their party affiliation? Remember then State Representative Frank Aguilar (R) protesting against the Oberweis campaign alongside of Democrats?

I am seeing all of the mailing pieces the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Illinois Republican Party have been sending into the 6th district, with immigration being exploited far above the tax issue against Democrat Tammy Duckworth.

I like Peter Roskam, and have always been a big fan of his since I first met him in 1996. I know he is without question the most qualified candidate for Congress, a true legislator for a legislator’s job.

And as conservative leaders have often written, none of us can stand a Speaker Nancy Pelosi come January.

The polls reported on WGN last night in the 6th is encouraging. Sometime, I hope Roskam, once elected to Congress, will remember that the ends never justify the means, and calling the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform bill a form of “amnesty”, despite the support of President Bush, is not a good recipe for success to get things done in Congress, especially when your legislation needs U.S. Senate approval to become law.

No question, Roskam lost both the Tribune and Daily Herald endorsements on this. Roskam is a smart guy, and if I lived in the 6th, he’d have my vote. Unfortunately, the way this campaign has unfolded, and the independent expenditures the NRCC and state party have done would make my vote an unethusiastic one.

- ElaObserver - Saturday, Oct 21, 06 @ 3:32 pm:
Bean up by 19 — that seems about right.

- NW burbs - Saturday, Oct 21, 06 @ 10:12 pm:
The Obama ad for Major Duckworth (now on the air) will likely help solidify that 17% into either Obama-haters or -likers.

Since it’s likely any Obama-haters in the 6th are already pulling for Roskam (ie, they aren’t “undecided”) my bet is on Duckworth picking up a bunch of that 17% as a result. Whether it’s enough we won’t know til about 10pm, Nov 7th.

- Mr. Luxury Yacht - Saturday, Oct 21, 06 @ 10:22 pm:
A Wise Old Man…

…don’ know squat. Roskam would be smart - if this were the 1880s. He is WAY too whacked-out…conservative really isn’t the word. Because someone who was truly conservative wouldn’t be for so much radical change away from where most Americans (in THIS century) are. Abortion - way out of the mainstream (woom). Stem cells - woom. Even immigration - woom. Most Americans are for border security. Yes, Peter, even Tammy. But most Americans are for a legal path to citizenship - even if it means stepping back two squares like the plan from Mike Pence (R-IN).

And on taxes - he just doesn’t get it. How could the party of “freedom ain’t free” still be mumbling on autopilot about tax cuts - during a war? This is the ONLY time Americans, in this case the very wealthy, have been given a tax cut while the country was committed to a major military action. Americans get that we need to sacrifice and they also get - 12K Dow notwithstanding - that this bill will come due, now or for our children.

Roskam a great legislator? For which century? Duckworth’s Obama ad (see www.duckworthforcongress.com/obama) is going to seal the deal. A whole flock of suburban Reagan Democrats, who went Bush-Obama in 2004, are going to come home in three weeks. Peter Roskam will be Just Another Bad Idea from the Illinois Republicans, right up there with Keyes and Ryan - and Ryan.

- CarolStreamKaren - Sunday, Oct 22, 06 @ 2:38 pm:
Illinois 6 would be safe for Democrats if Cegelis and not Duckworth was the Democratic nominee.

- Bill Baar - Sunday, Oct 22, 06 @ 4:05 pm:
Illinois 6 would be safe for Democrats if Cegelis and not Duckworth was the Democratic nominee.

I think Dems might have been better off with a someone like Bean in the 6th… a CAFTA supporter, a Patriot Ac supporter…

Duckworth stuck trying to hangon to the Cegelis voters and not at all as clear as Bean.

I think that’s her problem.

- Matt - Sunday, Oct 22, 06 @ 4:06 pm:
I like how Peter is leading, but you have to make it good news for Duckworth, classic.

Yacht…Obama and Duckworth together, two people with no legislative record running on empty promises, they fit each other.

Roskam wins this!

- Mr. Luxury Yacht - Sunday, Oct 22, 06 @ 9:37 pm:
Matt,

Obama - no legislative record? You haven’t been paying attention. As for Duckworth is a record in Denny’s House automatically a good thing? In a throw the bums out year (or any year, really), Roskam - with a definite record - is a bum. His legislative record is why he’s being rejected to an historic degree in this allegedly-rock-solid-conservative-Republican District.

All that said, IMHO Tammy needs a 4-5 point lead heading into Election Day to overcome the huge GOTV advantage that Paleo Pete enjoys.

- CarolStreamKaren - Monday, Oct 23, 06 @ 7:59 am:
Tammy will lose.

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