Home | Subscribers Only | AIM | Contact | Mobile | Subscribe | Classifieds | Calendar | Resumes
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here. Subscriptions are $350 per year. To advertise on the Capitol Fax Blog, please click here.
Daily Herald/ABC7 poll: 48-32-12 *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Oct 30, 2006

Even more so than with the Daily Herald’s congressional polling, all of these gubernatorial numbers are postively ancient, since the poll was conducted Oct. 16-22, according to the paper. In other words, they sat on these results for eight days and some of the numbers are over two weeks old.

The governor led Topinka by 16 percentage points, 48 percent to 32 percent, in the poll. And in a sign voters view this as the proverbial “None-of-the-Above” election, little-known Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polled 12 percent support, likely an unprecedented showing for a third-party candidate in Illinois. […]

In this campaign, though, women voters backed Blagojevich by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. And the governor led Topinka by 13 percentage points, 45-32 percent, in suburban Cook, and by 12 percentage points, 47-35 percent, in the DuPage, Lake, Kane, McHenry and Will collar counties.

That campaign is working, the poll shows. Asked to rate Topinka on a 1-10 scale, those surveyed rated her a 4.0 - lower than any statewide candidate this fall and even lower than President Bush, who rated a 4.2. Topinka was rated a 5.6 just two years earlier.

Blagojevich’s own rating stood at 4.6, dropping a full point from two years ago, a likely indication the seemingly endless stream of stories about corruption allegations in his administration is taking a toll.

*** UPDATE *** The Tribune/WGN poll isn’t on the Web yet, but I’m told the results are: 44-29-13

- posted by Rich Miller


27 Comments
  1. - Garp - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:20 pm:

    In my own polling, which constitutes going door to door, I also have found that women do not like JBT and I really don’t think there is anything she can do about it. A very strange election. Every time a bad story comes out about Blago, JBT drops 2 points.


  2. - Squideshi - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:38 pm:

    I wish that the pollsters would do head to head matchups between Whitney and his opponents, like they do for for Blago and Topinka. I think that we would see some very interesting results.


  3. - Little Egypt - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:39 pm:

    Rich, if the numbers are so ancient, why post them?


  4. - HRH Weezer - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:42 pm:

    If Judy’s camp were smart they would get more air time with Joe Birkett in the next week. Put that man in front of the cameras — he’s far more likable than Judy and could help sway some of the undecideds and none-of-the-abovers.


  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:43 pm:

    LE, ABC7 is the number one news station in Chicago. When they run these numbers, it’s news. Somebody has to point out the age of the numbers, however, and that’s what I did.


  6. - Southern Illinois Democrat - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:49 pm:

    JBT is done. Now the thing to watch is how high will Whitney go? Can he reach 15 or 20 percent? Can he actually win a county? This could be the biggest story of the night.


  7. - NoGiftsPlease - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:52 pm:

    The people I know would be indifferent between JBT and Blago,and would like to vote Blago out. Unfortunately the Quinn vs. Birkett angle makes JBT unelectable for moderates. She really shot herself in the foot with that choice.


  8. - DOWNSTATE - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:06 pm:

    Why do the Chicago polls show higher numbers than other polls.


  9. - GOPGal - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:25 pm:

    If you watched the interviews on ABC7 with some of the voters polled, you would see that their opinions are timeless. There was very little in their reasoning behind their vote that would suggest they would have changed their opinion over this past week.

    Let’s face it, if the numbers were favorable for Topinka would there be any mention of the fact the poll was 8 days old. No. Of course not.


  10. - Lovie's Leather - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:29 pm:

    SID, to paraphrase John Candy from the movie Plains, Trains, and Automobiles… “We would have a better chance playing pick-up sticks with our butt-cheeks” than Rich Whitney winning a county….


  11. - DOWNSTATE - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:48 pm:

    Research 2000 on Realclear ran 800lv from 10/23 to 10/26 and came up with 9+ for Blago and about the same timeline Survey came up with 10+.So if we are to beleive the Herald Blago has lost 6 to 7 points.


  12. - elginite.org - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:15 pm:

    Is it too late for a write-in campaign for Jim Edgar?


  13. - Real Clear - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:42 pm:

    Now that Topinka’s on the defensive with the revelations about her pals Kjellander and Cellini, she’ll keep dropping. Judy fans should be careful what they wish for. Newer polls will show her doing even worse. Count on it.

    Just 5 more points to drop by election day and she’ll be down to Alan Keyes’ 27%!


  14. - Southern Illinois Democrat - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:44 pm:

    Lovies, Illinois voters gave a county or two to Keyes and Blago lost several in the primary. I dont think it will happen either, but stranger things have happened.


  15. - steve schnorf - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:59 pm:

    I think Keyes won four, all in southeatern part of the state.


  16. - politicaljunkie - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:27 pm:

    Real Clear…..JBT IS NOT buddies with Kjellander and Cellini. Yes, she did try to cut a deal to bring in some money for the hotel. The idea was hatched by Marty Kavorik (I believe he was her first Deputy Treasurer or something like that). The esteemed Mr. Jim Ryan put the kabosh on it for purely political reasons. In retrospect, it would have been a good deal. The money could have been invested 11 years ago. As it is, I don’t believe the state has received $0 and probably never will. The original hotel loan was OKed by Jim Thompson’s administration. Trust me on this….if JBT, Kjellander and Cellini were that great of friends the big money Republicans (50-60 year old white guys) would have dumped a ton of cash into her election. They were a no show. And it is what it is.


  17. - Cassandra - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:48 pm:

    Well, it’s not over til it’s over.

    And voters are gonna do what they’re gonna do.

    But if JBT loses, the next day Repubs should be planning for 2010. Because it’s going to be a really bad four years for the Dems. Investigations, big financial problems, chickens coming home.


  18. - Anon - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:58 pm:

    Zogby has a new poll out that has the race 39-33. Even better, the poll wasn’t taken when Jesus was a kid (like the Daily Herald’s).


  19. - Confused Republican - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:31 pm:

    Must be another homerun for Topinka huh?


  20. - Where's the Leadership??? - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:51 pm:

    It is amazing that I travel the state from Cairo to dang near Cheeseland, and I have spoken to people and outside the city of Chicago, I can’t find hardly ANYONE who is voting for the Gov…..They are not happy with Judy, but they say she is better that what is in there??? Yet all the polls have her way down.


  21. - JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm:

    I believe that these polls are very misleading and that the only polls we should follow are on election day. If only Jim Oberweis wouldn’t act so bitter and support Topinka and gover her tons of cash then it would be neck and neck because of all the ads she would eb airing. This is why the ILGOP is so messed up because they don’t support each other.


  22. - GOPGal - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm:

    The latest Tribune/WGN poll has Topinka down 15.


  23. - JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:09 pm:

    For some reason I think Topinka is going to win. I know that sounds ironic at this point.


  24. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 1:34 am:

    I read this earlier and then went out and had dinner, but I couldn’t get something out of my mind. So, I came back and re-read it.

    This poll has the Governor leading JBT by 15%, and the Governor’s head-to-head at 44%. But, if I read it correctly, built into those numbers is a finding that the Governor will win women 2-1. He won’t. No matter the good or the bad, I can’t imagine him winning that cohort more than 60-40, which would be a total blowout, but it’s far from 2-1.

    And, built into those numbers is a finding that he will win the collars by 12%, for all practical purposes the margin he is leading in suburban Cook. I may be completely out of touch, but I think he won’t win the collars by 12%. I can’t imagine a scenario much worse than approximately 50-50, and I suspect that JBT will carry the collars.

    I have neither the time nor the willingness to do the math, but it appears to me that if you back out of the Governor’s numbers the overestimates among women and in the collars, and add those back into JBT’s, the head-to-head is probably pretty close in this poll.

    Unless, of course, the poll understates the Governor’s lead in the city, in which case you would have to do the reverse math.


  25. - Squideshi - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:20 am:

    I have been pretty pleased with ABC7 Chicago.

    This is unlike CBS2 Chicago, which has been blatently biased against Rich Whitney, explicitly REFUSING to include him in their “Straight 2 The Issues” segment, airing every day between now and election day.

    Considering that the last Glengariff Group poll showed that 70% of Illinois voters want Whitney included, this is an incredibly BAD business decision by CBS2 Chicago; and it only demonstrates that they are out of sync with what their viewing audience wants. I will be doing my best to bring that message to their investors and advertisers.


  26. - Burbs - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 10:52 am:

    JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm:

    Oberweis has urged voters to vote for Topinka.


  27. - Angie - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 12:12 pm:

    JakeCP wrote, “I believe that these polls are very misleading and that the only polls we should follow are on election day.”

    I have to concur with Jake. Maybe the kid will get some decent textbooks soon after all? lol

    As far as, “This is why the ILGOP is so messed up because they don’t support each other.”

    No, the Illinois GOP was left in an absolute shambles because Ryan was an absolute crook. This party needs to reform and rebuild into a viable party (aka one that can get candidates elected in what has generally been a blue state).

    JBT was one of the few left standing after the Ryan fiasco, so if anyone is griping about their choices, just stop it, because you’re lucky to have someone with as much experience in state government as she does who was actually still left standing and untainted by investigations.

    Rod had his shot at reform and has been a failure. The clear choice is a no-brainer come November, and if help is not forthcoming from JBT, then she, too, will be a one term governor. In fact, perhaps Illinois ought to just stick to one term governors so we can get any crooks who want to run locked up faster!

    Best solution is to clone Fitz, of course, but that opens up an ethical can of worms. But one can dream.;-)


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


ON THE BLOG TODAY...
* 93 percent of AFSCME members vote to ratify state contract
* Rep. Watson's welcome home party
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Internal House Democratic memo on Lottery lease, capital plan (Use all caps in password)
* Question of the day
* Congressional updates *** UPDATED x1 ***
* Reform and Renewal, Part 9,691 and beyond
* Old bulls attempt GOP diagnosis, names floated for guv
* Morning Shorts
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax
** Yesterday's blog posts

Support The Capitol Fax Blog
Visit our advertisers...

Search This Blog...

Search the 95th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 95th General Assembly By Keyword

Quick Links


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Polls

Archives
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress
 

  
  » iPhone Tethering: Why All the Drama?
  » A peek inside the ACCESS Linux Platform
  » Jabra BT530 Review
  » Speed Up Sync Time By Bypassing USB Hub
  » Your Smartphone Can Open Doors - Literally
  » Treo Software Roundup - v090508
  » Free ebooks from Harlequin, Small Beer Press, Night Shade and more
  » MacRumors: Apple Licensing Imagination's PowerVR Graphics Cores for Future Products?
  » Tip o' the Week: MiniTones
  » Palm Treo Pro Review Roundup
  » iPhone 3G signal still lame for many; Apple: “go closer to a window”
  » Sprint's Green and Rose Centros
Upholded by feed dot informer dot com

  » This Week's Best Posts [Highlights]
  » LabelLinks4Gmail Nests Labels in Gmail and Then Some [Featured Greasemonkey User Script]
  » Mazzick Puts Mouse Gestures on Your Thumb Drive [Featured Windows Download]
  » Latest Version of Gmail Rolling Out for IE6 [Gmail]
  » The three kinds of FREE
  » Carbon Planet Flight Emissions Calculator Determines the Footprint of your Flight [Environment]
  » Pricing sweet spots: $0 and $Lots (Yet another reason to forget micropayments)
In Association with Feed Informer

» Game #140: WhiteSox (78-61) vs. Angels (85-54)
» 'Play along on the treadmill to nowhere.'
» Image FanShot
» The worst-case scenario
» Quentin out, will have wrist surgery
» Carlos Quentin to undergo surgery Monday
» Is Carlos Quentin Lost for the Season?
» Voyagers bring knockout punch to postseason
» Latest on Quentin
» Halos, White Sox to face off on TBS
From feed.informer.com


  » Ill. governor targets 2 care facilities for closing - St. Louis Post-Dispatch
  » Death penalty still in limbo in Illinois - The Southern
  » Lobby to save historical sites - Galesburg Register-Mail
  » Getting an education - Change of Subject - Chicago Tribune Blog
  » Threatening letters to public officials net eight more years in prison - Pontiac Daily Leader
  » Summary Box: Privatizing Illinois lottery - Chicago Tribune
  » Ill. House moves closer to privatizing lottery - Chicago Tribune
  » Blago: Lawmakers need to address school funding - WJBC News
  » State chamber of commerce head mulling run for governor - Clout Street - Chicago Tribune Blog
  » Ill. state workers' union OKs 4-year contract - WTHI
Succoured by feed dot informer dot com


  » Chicago man gets 15 years for fatal hit-and-run
  » Authorities outside bank in suburban Chicago
  » Police block off streets outside bank in suburban Chicago
  » Problem with radar causes delays at O'Hare
  » Hostage drama hits Wheaton
  » Man admits trying to have witnesses killed
  » Chicago Ford plant to eliminate 600 part-time jobs
  » AFSCME approves 4-year deal with Illinois
  » Blago: Lawmakers need to address school funding
  » Promoter of safe driving for teens killed
Powered by feed.informer.com

  » Boeing talks fail; machinists to strike
  » SEC accuses suburban man of $1.2M in fraud
  » Hostage drama hits Wheaton
  » AFSCME approves 4-year deal with Illinois
  » UR Chicago mag to cease print, go Web only
Upholded by feed dot informer dot com


  » Doctor delivers baby in front seat of Camry
  » Doc is heart of Korean community
  » Grueling Navy SEAL drill not for meek
  » CHA makeover boost: $10,000 for home buyers
  » Police union rips moves to tighten reins on cops
  » Witnesses help cops nab suspect in 'Secondhand Bandit' robberies
  » Gang revenge led to girl's slaying: prosecutors
  » County may buy golf course from commissioner's family
  » City replaces sewer inspection firm linked to mayor's family
  » Wrongfully convicted Logan wants apology from Daley
Maintained by feed.informer.com


  » Authorities ordered to return Craig Stebic's truck
  » Hostage situation ends after SWAT team enters Wheaton bank
  » State chamber of commerce head mulling run for governor
  » Wheaton officials confirm bank hostage situation
  » 2 people hospitalized after cab crashes into shop at O'Hare Airport, police say
  » Craig Stebic to get back seized truck, not firearms
  » Howe Developmental Center in Tinley Park to close
  » Fire breaks out at Portage Park rehab clinic
  » More than 150 take City Hall buyouts
  » 1 found fatally shot in Hoffman Estates home
Upholded by feed dot informer dot com


  » Olympian Pays a Surprise Visit to a Chicago High School
  » Hillary Clinton Supporter Undecided
  » Obama Supporters React to McCain Speech
  » Schools Report High Attendance Amid Boycott
  » John McCain Accepts the GOP Nomination
  » Vaccine Choice, or Risky Move?
  » No New Trial for Alton Logan: 'It's Over With'
  » Schock Steps on the Big Stage
  » Some Hoosiers Undecided In Presidential Pick
  » LaHood: Illinois GOP Can Get 'Back on the Map'
Generated by FeedInformer


  » State changing mental health services
  » Sparrow in Sangamon County found to have West Nile
  » LPGA backs down on English requirement
  » Pawnee's Cole making up for lost time
  » AFSCME members approve new contract
  » State Chamber of Commerce head considering gubernatorial run
  » City looking at buying gravel pit for backup water supply
  » Rev. Jesse Jackson released from Chicago hospital
  » Jobless rate jumps to 5-year high of 6.1 percent
  » Fire at vacant house under investigation
Brought to you by FeedInformer


  » Man dies in ATV accident
  » Dean wants research in the hands of superintendents
  » Man admits to plotting to have witnesses killed
  » Death penalty still in limbo in Illinois
  » Carbondale to open new maintenance, environmental services building
Brought to you by feed.informer.com


» Man accused in courthouse bomb threat now charged in conspiracy scheme
» Friday farming: Playing your requests ...
» Reward offered as armed robber strikes Schaumburg again
» No Lowe's, Meijer for Rand Road property
» Teen safety program earns Crystal Lake cop international accolade
Upholded by feed.informer.com


  » Friday follow-up
  » Exploring Ideology and Partisanship in Political Polling
  » Unemployment Numbers: Good News for Obama, Bad News for Rod
  » GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - September 5, 2008
  » Illinois and the Republican National Convention--and my upcoming radio appearances
  » Dr. Blagojevich, you’ve created a monster!
  » GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - September 4, 2008
  » Distributing School Resources in Chicago
  » 11th Congressional Candidate Debate
  » Dick Tracy for McHenry County Seal
Brought to you by Feed Informer

» Rockford Police Getting Money to Hire More Officers - WREX-TV
» Dems Pounce On New Unemployment Numbers - CBS News
» JUSTIN AKERS CHACON: Stop the workplace raids - Belleville News Democrat
» Kirk, Sizemore Win in Speedrome World Figure 8 Kick-Off - WhoWon.com
» Dems pounce on new unemployment numbers - Politico
» Illinois' Schock could become youngest congressman - Chicago Tribune
» Waiting for Obama at Invesco, Scha
» Hog roast focuses on 34 Voices - Burlington Hawk Eye
» Hare ready to fight for Illinois - Burlington Hawk Eye
» Hare addresses Higher Education Act - Western Courier (subscription)
Powered by feed dot informer dot com

» Sarah Palin brings hope to the misdirected GOP - Canada Free Press
» Barack Obama — Magna Cum Saudi? - Investor's Business Daily (subscription)
» US election at-a-glance: 5 Sept - BBC News
» Oprah Denies Shutting Out Palin - AOL News Newsbloggers
» Most Clinton backers say Palin's too far a stretch - WAND
» Sarah Palin for President: Support Base Grows - Gambling911.com
» A new age dawns for political oratory - WA today
» Local Reaction to McCain Speech | KXNet.com North Dakota News - KXMC
» Biden campaigns in Pennsylvania - 6abc.com
» USA ISRAEL September Surprise for Attack on Iran - Pakistan Daily
Maintained by Feed Informer

» Extra, Extra - Chicagoist
» Illinois' Schock could become youngest congressman - Chicago Tribune
» Ground Noise and Static - American Thinker
» Texbook Law Will Help College Students Shop Around, But Not Until 2010 - WBBM780
» Who will be the new stars in Illinois GOP? - Beep
» Springfield tourism numbers down; closings won't help - Southtown Star
» Bill aims to raise funds for mental health care - Daily Illini
» Editorial: Let's get sold on solar - Daily Eastern News
» Durbin Wants Textbook Cost Accountability - WGIL Radio News
» Faith and politics - Belleville News Democrat
In Association with feed.informer.com

    » McCain isn't the only one shaking things up
    » New Spy: Scared of Ghosts?
    » Getting an education
    » "Labor Is"
    » Debbie Halvorson's First TV Ad
    » Friday follow-up
    » Want To Stay Up To Date On Uptown TIF's?
    » City Wide Anti-Crime March Tomorrow
    » September
    » Exploring Ideology and Partisanship in Political Polling
    » House Democrats inching closer to privatizing Ill. lottery
    » Politics: Schock's speech, commercial raise issue of fairness
Generated by feed.informer.com