[Updated from last night and bumped up. Also, FYI, the Daily Herald will be releasing a new poll on the governor’s race at about six o’clock tonight. A new poll for the county board president’s race will be released at 10 pm. Check back for links if you can.]
One brief bit of caution: Some of these Daily Herald/ABC7 poll numbers are eleven days old because the 6th District poll was conducted Oct. 19-24 and the 8th District survey was taken Oct 18-24. The margin of error for both polls is 4 percentage points.
* First, the 6th District. The Tribune poll had this one at 43-39 for Roskam, Constitutent Dynamics reported it at 47-46 Roskam and Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan had the race 51-46 Duckworth.
The freshest numbers, according to pollster.com, come from Democratic pollster Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal. The survey of 400 likely voters taken Oct. 23-24 had Duckworth ahead 44-43. But here’s the narrative from the Daily Herald on its poll:
In the 6th Congressional District race to succeed retiring Rep. Henry Hyde of Wood Dale, Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam led Democratic Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth 46 to 42 percent […]
Of Roskam’s 46 percent, 27 percent said they were strong supporters, with 19 percent less strong in their support. Duckworth had 28 percent say they were strong backers, with 14 percent less strong. […]
Only 36 percent of those surveyed thought the country was headed down the right path, with 54 percent saying it’s going in the wrong direction and 10 percent not sure. Bush carried the district in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote.
Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran who opposes the war, is getting support from 66 percent of those who feel the country is on the wrong track. Roskam, running as the candidate of the party in control of the federal government, is backed by 22 percent of the wrong-direction voters.
* Now, the 8th. The Tribune poll had Bean with a 50-31-4 lead, Democratic pollster Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal had Bean up 49-33, but Constituent Dynamics had Bean with a far less commanding 47-44 lead, and was therefore roundly ignored.
The Daily Herald has the situation far worse for Bean, with the incumbent polling 8 points under 50 percent and the third party candidate eating up votes:
To the north, 8th District Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean of Barrington held a 42 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican investment banker David McSweeney of Barrington Hills [third party candidate Bill Scheurer is at 8 percent] […]
Although Bean hasn’t gone out of her way to bash Bush, she gets support from 62 percent of those polled who think the country is on the wrong track. Scheurer picks up 12 percent of those voters. […]
McSweeney captured only 68 percent support among those identifying themselves as strong Republicans and just 55 percent among those leaning Republican. That presents perhaps McSweeney’s biggest challenge. “If McSweeney can persuade and energize his natural base of Republican support, he will win the race,” Day said.
McSweeney’s support is based more along party lines: 22 percent saying they back him because they dislike Bean, with another 21 percent saying they back him because he’s a Republican. About 17 percent cited McSweeney’s issues, with an additional 9 percent specifying his opposition to abortion rights as the reason they’ll vote for him.
If this poll is right, and if those Republicans come home for McSweeney, this might be a major upset in the making.
*** UPDATE *** Duckworth’s last TV ad of the season is below.
