SurveyUSA: 45-37-14
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
More numbers, this time it’s SurveyUSA. As I’ve been trying to point out lately, it’s almost all about Whitney’s final tally.
Remember when reading this poll that the sample size is very small, 434 likely voters, which means the survey has a margin of error of ±4.8%. They interviewed 1,000 Illinois adults, 885 were registered to vote and less than half of those were deemed to be “likely voters.” If you look at a poll the firm did just a couple of weeks ago, they interviewed 1,000, found 888 registered voters and judged 578 to be likely voters. Whether that means voter turnout is depressed or not, I don’t know. I do know that this current sample size is a bit too small. I also don’t like the fact that they make such bold predictions based on such small sample sizes. Still, here it is…
In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 11/2/06, 5 days to the vote, Democrat incumbent Rod Blagojevich is re-elected, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis.
But, Blagojevich’s margin of victory could be the 8 points that SurveyUSA reports here, or could be larger, depending on other factors. First among them: support for Green Party Candidate Rich Whitney, who receives 14% of the likely vote in today’s SurveyUSA’s poll. If Whitney’s support is more of a protest by voters over how unhappy they are with having to choose between Blagojevich and Topinka, as opposed to genuine enthusiasm for Whitney and the Green Party, then some of Whitney’s support may dry up before Election Day, and that support could go elsewhere, or stay home. Already, Whitney’s support among Independent voters is down from 29% in a SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll on 10/23 to 21% today. Next: some, but not all, parts of Illinois have hotly contested races for the U.S. House of Representatives. In those Congressional Districts, turnout will be higher than it will be in non-competitive U.S. House districts in Illinois.
As SurveyUSA adjusts its turnout model to include more Likely Voters in its respondent pool, Blagojevich’s margin of victory increases, in some scenarios by quite a bit. There is no SurveyUSA scenario in which Topinka wins. In the data SurveyUSA reports here, Blagojevich gets 45%, not materially different than his support in two previous SurveyUSA polls. Topinka today is at 37%. In two previous SurveyUSA polls she had been at 39% and 34%. SurveyUSA expects Blagojevich to finish in the mid 40s, Topinka to finish in the mid 30s. SurveyUSA does not see Blagojevich breaking 50% unless the Green vote disintegrates.
I can’t see Blagojevich getting to 50 percent with any scenario, even if the Green Party support falls apart. I think they’re being a bit too optimistic here. The SurveyUSA prediction of about 45-35 leaves out the implied Whitney number: 20 percent. That seems pretty darned high.
Check the Crosstabs here (remembering that the MoE will be gigantic), look at how the numbers are shaping up with the other polls, then discuss below.
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)
This graph from Pollster.com shows trendlines since October 15.
Meanwhile, this photo of a sign on Bernardi’s Restaurant in Washington, IL was taken by a Peoria-area pal. Get Nieuked is now a movement…
We’re expecting some new ads very soon.
- Squideshi - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 9:18 pm:
No matter who wins, Rich Whitney will get 5% of the vote; and the Green Party will become a legally established party throughout the state, and in every subdivision therein. Because ballot access will be so much easier, we can expect to see a huge number of Greens running at all levels. Green Party membership numbers have SKYROCKETED as a result of the Whitney campaign. The political landscape in Illinois just changed, and Democrats and Republicans are going to have to get used to sharing the pie with Greens, unless of course, they get their act together and implement Instant Runoff Voting.
- scoot - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 9:28 pm:
Why? or What did we do to deserve 4 more years of Blagojevich? And how can Judy do worse then Jim Ryan? I guess it’s up to Patt Quinn to rock the system.
- tough guy - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 9:41 pm:
Looks like an 8-10 point win for Blago. “There is no SurveyUSA scenario in which Topinka wins.” OUCH!!
- JBT For GOV - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 9:42 pm:
I think I am going to stay home on this one! another 4 years of this. How dissapointing!
- HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 10:05 pm:
SurveyUSA didn’t even poll Nieukirk! He’s seen his support triple in a week… from 4 votes to 12.
Anyway, I think SurveyUSA missed the point. There’s:
1. No way Whitney gets to 10 percent.
2. No way Blago gets to 50.
= over 40 for Judy. Question remains how much over 40 for Judy, and under 50 for Blago.
I see this going
Blago 45
Judy 45
Whitney 9
Others 1
The election will be won by less than 1 percent of the vote.
MOE = +/- 6%!
- Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 10:05 pm:
Some progonsticators are claiming that people who claim to be Whitney supporters will eventually pick between the major party candidates. This seems to be based mostly on Nader polling above 5% in 2000, but receiving much less in the actual election.
This will happen much less for Whitney than it did for Nader.
1. Voters are more willing to take risks in a governor race than in a presidential race.
2. The race isn’t close. If there’s no scenario in which JBT has a chance, why not vote Green?
3. If you consider Greens a splinter from the Dems it’s hard to imagine Green voters feeling compelled to vote for JBT to get rid of Blagojevich. And they don’t feel a need to help Blagojevich.
4. Blagojevich has never courted activists seriously. Bosses and interests groups Blagojevich courts, but he doesn’t care much about activists. So if the activists might screw Blagojevich by voting Green they wouldn’t care much.
I think the logic points to Whitney’s support growing between now and E Day and Topinka’s collapsing.
Earlier I predicted Whitney would get 14%. Today I predicted at least 9-11%.
Part of me thinks that the logical prediction is for Whitney to be at 20% or higher. Part of me thinks this is completely unrealistic based on the lack of media coverage.
If the Greens had theie stuff together as a national party they’d be sending money to Illinois for last minute ad buys.
- the ole precinct captain - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 10:23 pm:
What will we all do after Tuesday?
- Establishment Republican - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 10:37 pm:
Daily updates on the Jon Cox Presidential campaign?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 10:40 pm:
Sleep.
- Lovie's Leather - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 11:01 pm:
Rich, your answer, “sleep,” I believe would be applicable to both questions! John Cox. What is he thinking?
- Nickname - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 11:30 pm:
So if John Cox had launched an independent bid for Governor this year, how do you think he would have done?
- Nickname - Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 11:32 pm:
“Blago 45
Judy 45
Whitney 9
Others 1″
OTHERS 1!!!!
I think you have Niuekirk and Stufflebeam outperforming by a good 50 times.
- Scott Fawell's Cellmate - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 12:00 am:
Rich,
You’ve earned rest and relaxation on a warm beach with a cold drink - after next Tuesday. CapFax is chugging along smoothly and Illinoize is a real asset. Congrats !
Now, onto the mindless rants about polling being inconsequential, Whitney being god and Blagojevich being the devil !
- Scott Fawell's Cellmate - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 12:04 am:
New strategy:
We work for Tim Niuekirk to serve as Lt Gov under Gov. Pat Quinn.
C’mon, its Lt Gov, how tough can it be ? Plus, it’d give Tim a title, driver and State Police escort, and can you imagine the fun the guy would have with state troopers ?
Imagine the “Blue Brothers,” but with fewer Nazis and more car chases.
- Deck Marker, Potluck & Roly Poly - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 12:10 am:
Rich,
And you don’t like unoriginal “bumper sticker” slogans?
“Sleep” is as unoriginal as tribal armband tattoos on fraternity boys.
- bored now - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 6:19 am:
i agree that the governor stays under 50%. whitney definitely gets over 5% — though i remain sceptical that it will be much more. whitney is basically a throw-away vote, people who’ve come eager to vote in other races but just can’t bring themselves to vote for blagojevich. but who’s coming to the polls just to vote for whitney? just a small percentage of his vote.
that’s not really a basis for building (read, sustaining) a third party. protest parties are always marginalized. when the main parties offer up decent candidates, voters come home. in the end, it’s hard to see how one argues that topinka actually ran a competitive campaign. i will be very interested to see how the dem/gop candidates ran in the hotly contested congressional districts…
- Reddbyrd - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 8:09 am:
More polls.
More leads for GRod
How JudyBore gets Jim Ryan out of his cave for a big last weekend push????
Come AccordionGal let’s have some fun.
- Squideshi - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 9:39 am:
Carl Nyberg wrote, “If the Greens had theie stuff together as a national party they’d be sending money to Illinois for last minute ad buys.”
The Green Party of the United States does not accept corporate contributions either. The Green Party is a grassroots, bottom-up, decentralized, activist, movement-based political party. Big money isn’t part of the Green Party strategy–Greens are comitted to running a different kind of campaign–one that puts people first. We rely on volunteers and activists to get the legwork done.
I would say that we do pretty good, considering that how much WE spend on each vote versus the Democrats and Republicans. Consider that the current analysis shows that it’s costing Whitney something like $0.02 a vote. I think that Blago and Pinka are probably somewhere over $10.00 a vote. The Green Party platform resonates with people. Can you imagine how well we would do if we (1) competed on a level playing field or (2) spent anywhere near what the others spend?
Greens are a LOT more efficient with money, and people will appreciate elected officials that know how to do more with less.
- steve schnorf - Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 2:10 pm:
Then SurveyUSA expects Whitney to get close to 20% if my math is right: 100-45+/-, -35+/-, = 20. Ain’t going to happen, in which case by defintion they have to be significantly wrong about either the Governor or JBT, or both.