Chew these over while you’re chewing on your nails waiting for everything to be over.
* The latest polls in the governor’s race:
* 61-39 - Polimetrix, Nov. 5 (800 LV)
* 44-37-14 - Rasmussen, Nov. 1 (500 LV)
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)
* All recent blog posts on polls can be found here.
* The Hotline looks back at 1994 to check the generic ballot numbers:
ABC: — 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: — 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: — 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: — 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)
* The most recent Fox poll has Democrats leading generic ballot by 13. Check out all the recent generic ballot polls here. Five out of the last 8 taken since 11/1 have Dems ahead by more than ten (one at 20).
* But, the Hotline has this from a trusted GOP insider.
The [late Republican] momentum comes from three things: (1) the likely voter screen capturing increased GOP motivation, (2) a more accurate sampling (although in the case of Pew and ABC, they haven’t been bad in the past, so I wouldn’t overplay this factor), and more importantly, (3) tightening coming from some key swing comes coming home to GOP. We had been close to maxed out (85-90) among republicans for a while, but these recent polls show gains among moderates, independents – particularly conservative I’s and white evangelical Christians (groups we should be winning 3-1, but had been 2-1 with for a while).
* Democracy Corps thinks otherwise. Click here for its pdf report of 50-race polling.
This final survey of the 50 competitive Republican districts, dialed Thursday night, Saturday morning and Sunday night, shows the Democrats with a 5-point margin in the named congressional ballot (49 to 44 percent).1 That is down 2 points from the middle of last week and up 2 points from a week ago. In fact, the Democrat has polled 49 percent in virtually every survey in October, while the Republican has been stuck, now at 44 percent. When the undecided is allocated based on leanings, the Democrats carry this Republican territory, 51 to 46 percent. With the Democrats ahead in the most vulnerable and safest tiers of seats, Democrats should expect to carry the great majority of them.
* Oy.