I’ll post more later today, but I wanted to get the QOTD out of the way first.
Final election predictions. Statewide, congressional and Cook County president. Throw in any state legislative races that interest you. Please use exact percentages.
- posted by Rich Miller
- Abestquess - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:38 am:
It all comes down to campaign aparatus, GOTV: Stroger by 5 percent; Blagojevich by 4 percent; Roskam by 1-3 percent; McSweeney by 1-2 percent (which Scheurer stealing the election for Bean); Alexi by 10 percent;
- wndycty - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:41 am:
Blagojevich 51% Topinka 42% Whitney 7%
Duckworth 52% Roskam 48%
Bean 55% McSweeney 45%
Seals 51% Kirk 49%
Alexi 55% Radogno (sp) 45%
Dems will sweep all Illinois Constitutional offices, pick up 3 US House seats.
- DuPage Republican For Whitney! - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:46 am:
JBT 44 RB 43 RW 13 and the recount begins 11/8….
- Ronnie Dobbs - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:52 am:
Dems sweep all IL Constitutional Offices
Governor Blagojevich 46 Judy Baar Topinka 41 Rich Whitney 13
say it with me Rich, 4 more years.
- Niles Township - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:53 am:
Blago 48% JBT 40% Whitney 12%
Bean 53% McSweeney 47%
Duckworth 50.4% Roskam 49.6%
Radogno 50.3% (in an unexpected upset) Alexi 49.7%
Peraica 51% Stroger 49%
- RAI - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:54 am:
Roskam wins with 54%, McSweeny wins with51%, I am sorry to say Stroger will win walking away over55%, Kirk wins with 53% Blago wins with 48%, the GOP keeps the house by 2 votes and keeps the Senate. The reason in Illinois 6th and 8th? What is there to get out the dem vote? Chicago will carry the statewide except Treasure Rodoneo (SP) wins because of the speakers help. The 6th and 8th are wealthy suburbs doing well in this economy historicly the GOP has ground troops in both those districts and will get their vote out, how will the dems get their vote out? Where is the anger? I just don’t see the wave that has been predicted.
- Confused Republican - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:54 am:
Blago 47% Topinka 33% Whitney 20%
I see the Dems taking all the state offices.
Hastert wins Manzullo wins Pritchard wins Tuite wins
Stroger wins
Duckworth wins
McSweeny wins
Dems take the House
Reps take the Senate
- (618) Democrat - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:05 am:
Blagojevich 51% Topinka 40% Whitney 9%
Giannoulias 56% Radogno 44%
Democrats pick up 35 seats in the U.S. House and 6 seats in the U.S. Senate.
- FireRonGuenther - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:06 am:
Dems sweep all the statewide races. Blago 46 JBT 41 Whitney 13; Weller 57 Pavich 43; Roskam 50.6 Duckworth 49.4; Kirk 52 Seals 48; Bean 50 McSweeney 47 Third Party Peacenik 3.
Peraica 50.3 Stroger 49.7 Dems cry for a recount.
Dems take US House; GOP holds on to US Senate.
- doubtful - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:08 am:
“McSweeney by 1-2 percent (which Scheurer stealing the election for Bean);” -Abestquess
I think you’re underestimating the Bean’s popularity with women. This race will go to Bean by 6%.
I think last minute defectors and the Socialist revelation will crush Whitney’s impact. I’d be surprised if he hits that 5% mark when it matters.
Rod 52% Judy 45% Rich 3%
I think Duckworth will be the only contested race that goes the Republican’s way.
Roskam 52% Duckworth 48%
- paddyrollingstone - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:16 am:
Rod - 48, JBT 43
- Wumpus - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:19 am:
If we have a recount, let’s not make it like Washington State’s “Count them til the Dems win” contest on 04.
- Kankakee Mob Boss - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:24 am:
Rod 46%/ Judy 41%/ Whitney 13% Radogno 51%/ Alexi 49% Careen Gordon 56%/ Briscoe 44%
- Garp - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:26 am:
JBT 47% Blago 45% Whitney 7%
Originally I thought Whitney was going to get more votes, however, certain things I thought might happen have not. This is my long shot, but I think it will be within 2 points either way.
Duckworth 48 1/2% Roskam 51.5%
Radogno 48% Alexi 52%
Peraica 52% Stroger 48%
Seals 52% Kirk 48%
- Boone Logan Square - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:40 am:
Wild guesses (I am not at all confident about the Cook County race):
Rod 47 Judy 40 Whitney 13
Bean 51 McSweeney 47
Duckworth 50 Roskam 49
Kirk 52 Seals 48
Stroger 54 Peraica 46
Alexi 54 Radongo 46
Lisa 73 Stu 27
Weller 58 Pavich 42
Hastert 57 Laesch 43
Hare 58 AZ 42
Nearby seats that flip: MO senate to McCaskill, House seats: IA: Braley MN: Walz IN: Donnelly, Ellsworth, Hill, Hayhurst (do not underestimate Hoosier loathing of Daniels) WI: Kagen
- Bill - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:40 am:
The Governor 51 Topinka 46 Other 3
Todd 54 Tony 46
- Jechislo - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:42 am:
JBT 47.8 Rod 47.2 Whitney 5.001
(JBT picks up a large percentage of the Whitney votes in the voting booth - at the last moment people will decide that they don’t want to throw away their vote and they don’t want any more of Rod).
Roskam 50.4 Duckworth 49.6
Rodogno 50.1 Giannoulias 49.9
Dems win all other major Statewide offices by a large percentage.
In Washington, Dems pick up 13 House seats and 2 Senate seats.
- sam - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:46 am:
Pat Arnold: Da Bears, 62 to 3.
Todd O’Conner: Bears. 79-zip.
Bill Swerski: Oh, really? You don’t think that Da Giants will score?
Todd O’Conner: No, I do not! Da Bears defense is like a wall. You can’t go through it!
Carl Wollarski: I say Bears, 52 to 14.
Bill Swerski: 74 to 2! I mean, after all, our civic pride is on the line. Because, let’s face it, if New York were to somehow beat Chicago, we’d never hear the end of it.
- raul - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:46 am:
blago by 7%, alexi by 10%, stroger by five percent, duckworth by 3%, bean by four percent. Seals by 2%. dems sweep constitutional office, pick up 21 seats in house and five senate seats
- Skeeter - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:47 am:
Blago 47 JBT 44 Green: 10
Careen Gordon holds on to her seat against a tough challenger.
Terry Parke squeaks it out, although in his district, he should be winning by 40.
- Skeeter - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:49 am:
Answering further – Dems win easy in other statewide.
Duckworth wins 52-48. Bean cruises 56-44 Kirk holds on 51-49.
Stewart beats McGlynn for the Fifth Dist. App. Ct.
Nationally, Dems pick up 21 House and 5 Senate.
- Reality Check - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:56 am:
Rod 51% Judy 38% Rich 11%
Todd 49% Tony 48% write-ins 3%
Dems take US House GOP hold US Senate 50/50 with Darth Cheney tiebreaker
- sine die - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:00 am:
JBT 47% Rod 44% Green 7.5% Tim 1.5%
Rodogno 48% Alexi 44% Others 8%
Target races: House DEMS lose 2 seats: Granberg & Boland Senate GOP loses 2 seats: Simpson & Roth
- HoosierDaddy - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:01 am:
Topinka 44.9 Blago 44.6 Whitney 9.6 Stuffit 0.5 Nieuk 354 (votes)
107th House
Caveletto 52 Granberg 48
Rosko 51 Duckie 49
- the ole precinct captain - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:07 am:
We all get nuked. He wins all offices and is now the supreme being her in Illinois (next to Daley of course)
- Bob o Link - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:08 am:
JBT 48.5% Rod 48% Whitney 3.14159265%
- VanillaMan - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:09 am:
Too close to predict: Topinka 45% Blagojevich 45% Whitney 10%
Easier: Bean 49% McSweeney 48%
Duckworth 48% Roskam 51%
Giannoulais 47% Rodogno 51%
Kirk 50% Seals 48%
Hare 50% Zinga 48%
GOP loses 3 Senate seats. GOP loses 14 House seats.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:12 am:
Ooops, forgot! Kelly indicted before March. Blagojevich indicted within the year.
- Wumpus - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:50 am:
JBT v Rod v Whitney V Stuffelbeam v Niuk 46-43-7-3-1 McSweeney v Bean v Schereur 47-44-9 Roskam v Duckie v Wumpus 54-42-4 Kirk v Seals 58-42 Peracia v Stroger 53-47 Hynes v Pankau 59-41 Alexi v Radgono 46-54 Little Lisa v Stewie 65-35 White v Rutherford 62-38 Schneider v Dasakis 55-45 Axley v the guy 53-47 Steele v Cardin 52-48 Roth v Noland 55-45
- So Blue Democrat - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:57 am:
Blago 45% Judy 44% Whitney 11%
Illinois loses this election.
- steve schnorf - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:01 pm:
46.5/46.5/7
- It is easy being Green - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:13 pm:
Whitney comes in 2nd. The IL Green Party (and JBT herself) help usher out the IL GOP, making IL a two party state resembling the left coast: Blue and Green.
Tom Abram/Green Party 103rd State Rep candidate is moving to Springfield. Bu-Bye Naomi.
Nationwide anti-war sentiment is underestimated and the Dems pick up both the House and the Senate.
- if it walks like a duck... - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:19 pm:
Jethro Bodine School of Political Polls - Blago 0%; Topinka 0%; Whitney; 0%. In other words - naught from naught from naught = 0 - You lose Illinois voters.
- anonymous again - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:20 pm:
not many positive rs out today whats up or you are all at work and cant do campaign stuff on state time anymore to bad, you loose again all of them
- smack-o-cratic - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:27 pm:
JBT 47% RB 45% RW 7.5% Other .5
L Mad. 67 Umholtz 33 White 58 Rutherford 42 Radogno 51 Alexi G. 49 Haynes 63 Pankau 37
Bean 52 McSweeny 48 Roskum 50.5 Ducks 49.5
- Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:54 pm:
Blago 48 JBT 46 Whit 6
All other races D by at least 58%
Roskam 51 Ducky 49
Bean 55 McSweeney 45
Kirk 55 Seals 45
Weller 60 Pavich 40
Hastert 62 Laesch 38
- ElaObserver - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:55 pm:
In 8-Cong McSweeney will get Bush’s approval rating. Scheurer picks up the margin of error. So …
Bean 54 McSweeney 41 Scheurer 5
- Gregor - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 1:24 pm:
Either way, in celebration or commiseration, I plan to get stinking drunk right after I vote. It is the only logical choice based on this campaign.
Later, if it turns out Judy wins, I’m buying everyone a venti double-mocha.
Governor’s race will be closer than expected, within less than 4 points. No “mandate” to either side, that’s the cost of negative campaigning.
- Captain America - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 1:39 pm:
Peraica 51 Stroger 49
Blago 47 JBT 45 Whitney 6
Bean 51 McSweeney 47 Scheurer 2
Duckworth 50.1 Roskam 49.9
Democrats win house- at least a 25 seat gain.
Repubs retain control of Senate - (possible tie 50-50)
- T.J. - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 2:18 pm:
Blagojevich 50% Topinka 43% Whitney 6%
Giannoulias 51% Radogno 47% Rodriguez-Schlorff 2%
Bean 53% McSweeney 44% Scheurer 3%
Myers 51% Frerichs 48% Parnarauskis 1%
Stroger 55% Peraica 45%
No other races to write home about.
- T.J. - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 2:28 pm:
Madigan 70% Umholtz 28% Black 2%
See? Nothing to write home about.
- Champaignvoter - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 2:47 pm:
Blago: 43% Topinka: 37% Whitney: 20%
Myers: 49% Frerichs: 47% Parnarauskis: 4%
Jakobsson: 35% Bradfield: 25% Abram: 40%
- Coal Miners For Rod - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 2:54 pm:
Blagojevich 52% Topinka 44% Whitney 4%
Giannoulias 53% Radogno 47%
Duckworth 53% Roskam 47%
Bean 56% McSweeney 44%
Frerichs 51% Myers 49%
Stroger 56% Peraica 44%
Madigan 72% Umholtz 28%
Laesch 51 Hastert 49
Dems sweep all offices, Thanks to Good Ole George Bush. Working people will speak at the polls on Tuesday, they are tired of Repulicans.
- Coal Miners For Rod - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 2:59 pm:
Lets face it Governor Rod Blagojevich has done more for working people than any of the past 3 Republican Governors. Topinka would be bad for Unions and for all the working people of Illinois. GO ROD 4 MORE YEARS.
- Ashur Odishoo - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 3:02 pm:
JBT 46.5 Blago 46.5 (this race decided by less than 7,000)
Dems win rest of statewide.
Peraica 51 Stroger 48
Odishoo 64 Fritchey 32
Bean 52 McSweeney 48
Roskam 51 Duckworth 48
Ashur Odishoo Candidate State Representative 11th District www.voteodishoo.com
VOTE ASHUR ODISHOO
- Anon - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 3:06 pm:
Over/under on men with campaign mustaches at the Blagojevich election night party: 50.
- Lovie's Leather - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 3:21 pm:
JBT 46.25 HAIR 44.75 COMMI 9
Bean 54 McSweeney 41 Commi 5
Roskam 51 Duckworth 49
Kirk 58 Seals 42
Lahood 68 Waterworth 32
Hare 55 Zinga 45
Rodogno 49 Giannoulias 48 Snider 3
Peraica 50.25 Toddler 49.75
I am very confident on the Bean/McSweeney prediction, the Lahood/Waterworth prediction, and the Hare/Zinga prediction. Other than that, if Blago does win the election, it will be no mandate and he will not get 50%.
- Caveat Eligorum - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 4:04 pm:
Gomolinski 51% Peraica 49%
Odishoo, Peraica, and Manzo have a meeting in the Illinois Department of Employment Security line to conduct a post mortem on Tony’s demise. It will remind me of the scene in “Bad Lieutenant” with Harvey Keitel in the church….Ohhhhhhhhh, Oooooooooooooo, whaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 4:05 pm:
I believe our predictions are about as good as the garbage pollsters have been selling us all year. I cannot recall a worst year for polling.
Polls failed to see a GOP Congress in 1994, they predicted a Kerry presidency in 2004, and every two years over the past ten, have predicted that Democrats would end their minority status. How many strike outs are allowed before we start firing pollsters?
All year long, polls have been predicting a Democratic wave. Now it seems they are hedging their bets. They sound like a bunch of idiots.
If you really think about it, do you believe that 30% of voters didn’t know who they’d vote for and that every week they would have a different answer? Who believes voters are that stupid? Polls are preposterous.
Perhaps that should be a QOTD? After the hoopla and analysis, perhaps we can discuss the future of polls and whether they should be considered newsworthy anymore.
- dupage boy - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 4:20 pm:
Rod 47 JBT 45 Green 8 All statewide Dems win big except Radogno wins 50 over Gianooulias 47 Green 3 Roskam 51 to 49 Duck Bean beats McSweeny 55 to 45 Stroger beats Peraica 52 to 48
- cermak_rd - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 4:45 pm:
All the judges will be retained in Cook County. I wish it weren’t true, surely Brim, Toney and Lipinski (Marcella–not Bill, Dan or Anne) deserve to be tossed out on their keesters. To say nothing of Kowalski, but at least he’s retiring.
People, if you don’t want to take the time to look at the bar ratings http://media1.suntimes.com/nixoncds/image/20061102_06_46_43_105.imageContent or the indepth reasonings for such http://www.chicagocouncil.org/, and you have no personal knowledge of the judicial candidates, then don’t bother to vote in those races.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 4:48 pm:
Blagojevich - 48 Topinka - 46 Whitney - 6
Dems win all other statewides, with the closest Alexi v. Radogno, Alexi gets 53%.
House Democrats lose one, pick up one.
Jones’ incumbents win, Jones picks off two from Watson.
Bean wins comfortably, Seals loses by 6, Duckworth /Roskam is 50/50 and perhaps the closest Congressional race in the country, but I think Duckworth eeks it out.
Democrats pick up 19 in the US House, 4 in the Senate. Peaked about ten days too early.
- phocion - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:20 pm:
I’ll tell you Wednesday.
- T.J. - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:54 pm:
How is Aaron Schock looking?
- yo mama don't vote here - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:40 pm:
Whitney - 34% Blago - 33% JBT - 33%
Dunkin - 75% Drakula - 25%
Tony - 51% Todd - 49
- Frosty Da Snowman - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:00 pm:
Blago 60, Topinka 35, the Green Guy 5
- Todd - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:34 pm:
Wallace 51% Crotty 49%
- Lovie's Leather - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:42 pm:
Chicago 100 Downstate 1 Please keep in mind that this poll has a one percent margin of error….
- HappyToaster - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:52 pm:
Stroger 64 Peraica 36
- annie - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:34 pm:
Cain 51% Flider 49% bad ads and Blago ended a nice guy’s political career that was sold out to the Chicago Machine. sorry bob
- Bill - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:54 pm:
Fritchey 100% Odishoo 0%
- Squideshi - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:04 pm:
Whitney 34.25% Blago 32.75% Pinka 31.25%
How about that Instant Runoff Voting Blago?
- Establishment Republican - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:26 pm:
1. (Blagojevich)/Quinn- 46 Topinka/Birkett- 44 Whitney/Samuels- 10
2. Madigan- 69 Umholtz- 29
3. White- 61 Rutherford 36
4. Hynes- 60 Pankau-37
5. Radogno- 48 Giannaoluis- 44
6. Roskam- 52 Duckworth- 48
7. Bean- 50 McSweeney 46 Scheurer- 4
8. Kirk- 55 Seals-45
9. Weller- 58 Pavich- 42
10. Hastert- 60 Laesch 40
11. Hare- 54 Zinga- 46
12. Shimkus- 61 Stover- 39
13. Peraica- 51 Stroger- 49
14. State Senate- Matt Murphy- 53 Gutzmer- 47 15. State Senate- Cheryl Axley- 52 Kotowski- 48 16. State Rep- Sidney Mathias- 69 MacDonald- 31
- Establishment Republican - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:27 pm:
National scene-
Governorships- Democrats net gain of 5
U.S. Senate- Democrats net gain of 4
U.S. House- Democrats net gain of 11
- Anon - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:29 pm:
Rod 48 Judy 46 Whitney 4 NUKE 669
Stroger 52 Peraica 48
Alexi 51 Radongo 49
White 66 Dan 33
Lisa 61 Stu 38
Hynes 64 Pankau 34
Bean 52 McSweeney 47
Duckworth 50.4 Roskam 49.4
Kirk 51 Seals 49
Weller 55 Pavich 44
Hastert 55 Laesch 44
Hare 56 AZ 44
Shimkus 51 Stover 48
House Dems pick up 24 seats Senate 50-50
- Roy Slade - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:44 pm:
JBT 47.5 BLAGO 46.5 WHITNEY 5.5 OTHER .5
Bean 52 McSweeney 46
Kirk 54 Seals 45
Rodogno 47 Giannoulias 49 Snider 3
Peraica 47 Toddler 51
SHIMKUS 58 STOVER 42
POE 54
CAVELETTO 51 GRANBURG 49
CROSS PICKS US 2 SEATS SENATE STAYS THE SAME
DEMUZIO WINS BY 2
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:31 am:
So, what’s the prize for closest picks?
- Squideshi - Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 9:52 am:
Green Party candidate, Dorian Breuer, wins in the 1st State Senate District with 45% of the vote. He has been endorsed by the Sun-Times and Tribune, over both of his opponents. This is also a largely Latino district, and Breuer was born in Mexico City.
- Illinois is #1 - Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 9:53 am:
JBT 47% Rod 45% Whitney 8%
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