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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
I’ve posted the Illinois weather map in the center column as well. Let’s use this post for local weather observations on Tuesday and musings on the weather’s impact on the big race.
Weather Forecasts | Weather Maps | Weather Radar
- posted by Rich Miller 18 Comments
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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
Chew these over while you’re chewing on your nails waiting for everything to be over.
* The latest polls in the governor’s race:
* 61-39 - Polimetrix, Nov. 5 (800 LV)
* 44-37-14 - Rasmussen, Nov. 1 (500 LV)
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)
* All recent blog posts on polls can be found here.
* The Hotline looks back at 1994 to check the generic ballot numbers:
ABC: — 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: — 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: — 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: — 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)
* The most recent Fox poll has Democrats leading generic ballot by 13. Check out all the recent generic ballot polls here. Five out of the last 8 taken since 11/1 have Dems ahead by more than ten (one at 20).
* But, the Hotline has this from a trusted GOP insider.
The [late Republican] momentum comes from three things: (1) the likely voter screen capturing increased GOP motivation, (2) a more accurate sampling (although in the case of Pew and ABC, they haven’t been bad in the past, so I wouldn’t overplay this factor), and more importantly, (3) tightening coming from some key swing comes coming home to GOP. We had been close to maxed out (85-90) among republicans for a while, but these recent polls show gains among moderates, independents – particularly conservative I’s and white evangelical Christians (groups we should be winning 3-1, but had been 2-1 with for a while).
* Democracy Corps thinks otherwise. Click here for its pdf report of 50-race polling.
This final survey of the 50 competitive Republican districts, dialed Thursday night, Saturday morning and Sunday night, shows the Democrats with a 5-point margin in the named congressional ballot (49 to 44 percent).1 That is down 2 points from the middle of last week and up 2 points from a week ago. In fact, the Democrat has polled 49 percent in virtually every survey in October, while the Republican has been stuck, now at 44 percent. When the undecided is allocated based on leanings, the Democrats carry this Republican territory, 51 to 46 percent. With the Democrats ahead in the most vulnerable and safest tiers of seats, Democrats should expect to carry the great majority of them.
* Oy.
- posted by Rich Miller 21 Comments
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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
I threw a party for a few pals in Chicago Saturday night. My usual pre-election thing. The highlight of the evening was a special appearance by write-in candidate Tim Nieukirk, his running mate Casey DeFauw and campaign manager Ryan Rudd.
These guys have got it going on. It didn’t take long to figure out that the stir they’ve created was no accident. A lot of planning and a whole lot of work went into their YouTube candidacy.
My favorite line of the evening was from DeFauw: “And that’s when I called Tim and said ‘Dude, we’re gonna nuke the Hamburglar.’”
The man himself, Tim Nieukirk…
Running mate Casey DeFauw, who directed all the spots…
Campaign manager Ryan Rudd…
Group hug…
See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here.
They haven’t sold much Get Nieuked gear at their Cafe Press site, and since they’ve financed their entire “campaign” out of their own pockets it would be a good thing if you could go to their site and help them out. If they’ve made you laugh out loud during a miserably negative year when there wasn’t much to laugh about, the least you could do is buy a button or something.
- posted by Rich Miller 27 Comments
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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
I’ll post more later today, but I wanted to get the QOTD out of the way first.
Final election predictions. Statewide, congressional and Cook County president. Throw in any state legislative races that interest you. Please use exact percentages.
- posted by Rich Miller 69 Comments
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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
The deceptive robocalls I told you about last week aren’t confined to Illinois.
The calls, paid for by the National Republican Campaign Committee, are running in 53 US House races, according to the Boston Globe.
The calls beging with “Hello, I’m calling with information about [Democratic candidate’s name here].” Lots of voters tend to hang up after the first sentence, but then they get another call right away from the system, leading some to believe that the Democratic candidate is bombarding them with idiotic calls.
You can listen to some examples of the robocalls done against Tammy Duckworth by clicking here.
Not everyone is blaming the innocent Democratic candidates, however.
Joan Sherrill had not decided how to vote in the 8th Congressional race until she received more than a dozen phone calls from Republican David McSweeney.
At that point, the choice was clear.
“I am voting for (Democrat) Melissa Bean,†the Palatine woman said. “The calls are just too much. They’re annoying.â€
Despite all the hooplah on Democratic blogs about the outrageousness of the robocall campaign, as is almost always the case with politics, neither side is completely clean. From Dennis Byrne’s column:
It starts out as a typical poll. “Would you care to answer a few questions about the elections,” the voice on your phone asks. “Whom do you plan to vote for?”
Then it gets weird. As in: “Candidate A beats his wife; does that make you think of him more or less favorably?” Or as my daughter Kati heard when she was called: “Does the fact that Congressman Mark Kirk accepts special-interest money make you think of him more favorably or less favorably?”
So, if you are a supporter of Kirk–the Republican from the north suburban 10th Congressional District who is seeking re-election against Democrat Dan Seals–how are you supposed to answer? Oh, sure, I want my congressman to take special-interest money, so it makes me think more favorably of him.
Which is exactly how Kati, being Kati, answered. Then came four more questions of the same nature, each trying to make Kirk look like he was doing something wrong. And each time, Kati answered that she thinks more favorably of him. She even had the interviewer chuckling. But actually, it wasn’t so funny.
“It’s like Mark Kirk went out and shot 100 people,” she said. “What kind of poll is this anyway?”
The answer is: dirty, low-down and negative.
*** UPDATE *** Pioneer Press has a story up about the robocalls.
Rozanne Ronen, a Barrington resident, got the call — “Hi. I’m calling with information about Melissa Bean …”
Then she got the call again and again and 18 more times, making for a total of about 21 calls since October 24.
“They are very annoying,” Ronen said.
Pat Vockeroth, of Mount Prospect, received the calls too — “Hi. I’m calling with information about Tammy Duckworth …”
“If you only listen to the first sentence, you think they are from the Duckworth campaign,” she said.
But the calls aren’t paid for by Bean, Duckworth or even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, they are paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The media really needs to do something more on this. As other bloggers have noted, this is obviously an attempt at vote suppression.
- posted by Rich Miller 17 Comments
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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
Just when you think it couldn’t get any goofier, Rich Whitney was red-baited.
It turns out the Green Party candidate used to be a Red. The Topinka campaign and the Illinois GOP, anxious to herd Republican voters back into line, held a press conference after the Daily Herald broke the story.
Green Party governor candidate Rich Whitney of Carbondale was a national figure in the Socialist Party before resigning his post in 1993 after getting in a feud and quitting for law school.
“Naturally, I don’t trumpet the fact that I was a Socialist. I was a Socialist because in my political evolution, I’ve always cared about working people,†Whitney told the Daily Herald late Saturday night. “I’m not a Socialist now. A lot of people did things in the 60s and 70s they don’t do now.â€
You can say that again.
Here’s part of the Republican press release:
“Rich Whitney has deliberately misled the voters of Illinois about his past and his 20 years as a member of the Socialist Labor Party of America,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna.
“These revelations about Whitney’s extreme views show voters now more than ever that this election is between Judy Baar Topinka and Rod Blagojevich,” said McKenna. “On Tuesday when voters step into the voting booth, they need to know if they want a change from Rod Blagojevich’s broken promises, they need to vote for Judy Baar Topinka to move this state forward.”
Whitney did a pretty good job of handling himself, considering the subject matter and Topinka played good cop to the GOP’s bad cop:
[Whitney] said his positions in the governor’s race — funding education by raising the income tax and lowering local property taxes, universal health care and cleaning up corruption — are “mainstream” positions.
“I’m the one that’s running on the mainstream,” he said. “Putting a casino in Chicago? Now that’s a kooky idea, OK?”
But even as McKenna denounced Whitney’s views, Topinka, who proposed a Chicago casino, sought to downplay the third party’s significance.
“I don’t think that’s particularly mainstream Illinois,” she said of Whitney’s past. “But, you know, again, I’d have to stress, I don’t think he’s really been a big issue here. It’s between Rod Blagojevich and me.
Discuss.
- posted by Rich Miller 76 Comments
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Monday, Nov 6, 2006
Pew:
A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
* Daily Herald: If the analysts who track national politics for a living are to be believed, Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert has two chances of holding onto power Tuesday: slim and none.
* Obama: I regret deals with Rezko
* Bernie predicts guv wins re-election, Democratic sweep
* Door to door, face to face, race goes to wire - Duckworth, Roskam go to visit the voters
* Washington: Dems are excited about voting this time
* Stroger woos churchgoers as Peraica works the streets
* Kristen McQueary: My daughter turned 1 in October. I recently received a lovely card in the mail from Gov. Rod Blagojevich and the first lady congratulating me on her birth and informing me of my right to breastfeed in public. Thanks, but we’re on milk and solid food, guys. Makes you think there’s an election around the corner or something.
* Miller: Polls show voters never believed much Blagojevich ever said. But they do believe what they see and hear, and the Blagojevich campaign masterfully used Topinka’s own words against her. “I love you dearly,” she said to George Ryan at an emotional State Fair event in 2002. The now infamous video clip of her speech, along with the reportedly electronically altered sight of her bobbing her head up and down as Ryan spoke at the podium was replayed about a billion times on TV. The Blagojevich people have built almost their entire campaign around that clip, which makes the case for them that she was “George Ryan’s treasurer.”
* Robaugh: Who you gonna vote for?
* Comptroller debate turns ugly
* Tribune: The Committee for Retention of Judges in Cook County, a joint effort of the judges and their supporters, raised $247,900 this year to support the 71 Circuit Court and appellate judges who will appear on ballots Tuesday.
* Libeled by a campaign ad? Probably not - Few candidates sue; those who do usually lose
* Garza picks up Jackson endorsement
* For campaigns, home is where the rent is cheap, lease short
* Former President Bill Clinton… has recorded radio ads and automated phone calls asking voters to support Blagojevich on Tuesday’s election.
- posted by Rich Miller 33 Comments
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Sunday, Nov 5, 2006
Christine Radogno quotes House Speaker Michael Madigan in her TV ad and Judy Baar Topinka points to Lisa Madigan’s refusal to endorse Rod Blagojevich in her last attack TV ad of the season. What a weird year.
*** UPDATE *** Everybody seems to want to talk about this story in comments instead of the ad, so here you go.
Topinka continued to fire barbs at Blagojevich, a well-known Cubs fan. She said he spends more time at the ballpark than he does at the Legislature.
“Maybe he ought to run for manager of the Cubs,” she quipped in Bloomington. “They’re a bunch of losers, too, and need some help.”
Blagojevich didn’t appreciate the comment.
“If she wants to say I’m a loser and call me names … God bless her, but leave the Cubs alone,” he said. “She ought to retract the attack on the Cubs.”
- posted by Rich Miller 68 Comments
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Saturday, Nov 4, 2006
Have at it, but try to stick to Illinois politics, please.
- posted by Rich Miller 157 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
- posted by Rich Miller 15 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
Well, so much for getting out of here this morning so I could meet some of the fellas in Chicago for a long lunch at Gene’s.
We have two new radio ads from the Blagojevich campaign. The first is negative…
“You know how she’s going to pay for it? Taxing me, taxing you. Taxes, taxes, taxes.”
Click here to play [mp3 file]
The second is positive…
“I’m sticking with the governor. He’ll get things done.”
Click here to play [mp3 file]
Very authentic sounding ads.
- posted by Rich Miller 30 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
From the Daily Herald’s Animal Farm:
Democratic congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth gave both legs in sacrifice to her country, but that apparently wasn’t enough for the Veterans of Foreign Wars to endorse her.
Instead, the national VFW relied on the word of former Republican state Sen. Ray Soden of DuPage County to back Republican Peter Roskam in the down-to-the-wire 6th Congressional District.
Roskam tried to bill the endorsement as a major boost to his campaign in the final days, but found himself admitting he sat on the endorsement until the end for maximum attention. The VFW representative was unable to give much of a reason for the endorsement or explain how it happened, and Roskam looked stunned at the harsh questioning from reporters.
Duckworth is having a press conference soon. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, this press release was issued a while ago by VoteVets.org.
Veterans of the war in Iraq, General Wesley Clark (ret.), and former Senator Bob Kerrey today reiterated their support for Tammy Duckworth’s run for Congress, citing her strong support for troops and veterans, and Peter Roskam’s flimsy record.
“Let there be no question who supports the troops and veterans. It isn’t even close. Tammy Duckworth, literally, left part of her body on the battlefield, and uniquely understands the challenges that troops and veterans face, and is committed to helping them,†said Iraq war veteran Jon Soltz, who is cofounder of VoteVets.org. “Her positions are the same as every major veterans’ group, and Peter Roskam’s are against them in every way.â€
“Tammy Duckworth’s commitment to America’s troops and veterans is second-to-none,†said General Clark. “From asking the tough questions on the war in Iraq and demanding a victory strategy to support for veterans care and services, she stands above the rest when it comes to supporting those who have fought for this country.â€
“I know something about sacrificing your body for America, and coming home to fight for those you fought alongside. It takes great commitment, a strong character, and a deep understanding of what troops and veterans go through every day, at war and at home,†said Senator Kerrey. “Tammy Duckworth has it; Peter Roskam does not.â€
*** UPDATE *** AP:
The endorsement also caught Duckworth by surprise. Flanked by more than 20 veterans at a hastily called press conference, Duckworth said she was never contacted by the organization or asked to fill out a questionnaire, which typically happens when organizations decide who they want to endorse.
“I think it’s unfortunate they did this,” said Duckworth, a former Army Black Hawk helicopter pilot who lost both legs when her aircraft was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade.
Members of VFW posts within the district said at Duckworth’s news conference that their posts were never contacted by anyone about endorsing either candidate.
“He didn’t ask our post,” said Bill Bahr, a Vietnam-era veteran and quartermaster at a post in Bloomingdale.
Roskam said the endorsement came at the urging of area VFW members, but he said he did not know who in the group endorsed him or how many local veterans were involved.
Something doesn’t look right with this.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Curiouser and curiouser.
Roskam said the national endorsement was based on the recommendation by a few 6th District VFW leaders. The only one he named was Soden, a former head of the Illinois VFW who was appointed to fill out former Republican Senate President James “Pate†Philip’s term in 2003.
Buttice said Soden sits on the national VFW’s political action committee board but had surgery Friday and was unavailable.
Bill Bahr, No. 2 in leadership at the Bloomingdale VFW post who backs Duckworth, said neither he nor his post’s leader were “approached in any way†about an endorsement in the race.
Roskam often tried to answer questions directed at Buttice and several times declined to say when he found out about the endorsement before finally saying “this week.â€
*** UPDATE 3 *** How worried are the 6th District Republicans worried about GOP turnout? This way over the top mailer should give you an idea.
   
*** UPDATE 4 *** From the Roskam campaign:
There is a lot of misinformation out there on the endorsement. here are the facts.
1. The Roskam campaign did not “sit” on the endorsement for political purposes.The campaign was notified on November 1, 2006 that we received the endorsement of the VFW PAC.
2. The Duckworth campaign DID NOT contact the VFW or seek their endorsement.
3. Local veterans contacted the VFW state and federal PAC urging the VFW PAC to endorse Peter Roskam. This was not soley engineered by Ray Soden. Mr. Soden was supposed to present the endorsement (as a former National Commander of the VFW), but he had an illness. Many veterans contacted the VFW to secure the endorsement and Mr. Roskam met with the State Commander.
- posted by Rich Miller 67 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
Remember Jake? He’s the 14 year old African-American kid from Lincoln Park I told you about who posted videos on YouTube slamming Gov. Rod Blagojevich because his school textbooks were in such bad shape. Some of you know that he has continued to post videos on a regular basis throughout the campaign, most of them in strong support of Republican candidates.
Jake was recently interviewed by Chicago Public Radio. You can listen to the interview by clicking this link. [m4a file] See all of his videos here. Visit his website here.
- posted by Rich Miller 24 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
Make sure you scroll way down today for several stories that were uploaded late yesterday and early this morning. We have two new polls, a couple of TV ads, etc.
I have to be out of the office much of today, so don’t expect constant updates. Also, for those of you locked in comment moderation, I won’t be able to free your posts from prison until much later. You should’ve played nice is all I can say.
Anyway, onto the question.
What would you suggest that major media outlets - TV, radio and print - do to improve their campaign coverage?
- posted by Rich Miller 27 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
Buried way down in a Copley News Service story entitled “Blagojevich, Topinka trade barbs” is this very important nugget about the governor’s new Veterans Care program that will offer medical services to vets who don’t qualify for federal assistance.
Also, the Blagojevich administration has drawn fire for the way it has chosen to finance the $8 million health-care plan - by channeling most revenue from a new scratch-off lottery ticket for Illinois veterans. […]
In a September letter to JCAR, the Illinois commander of the Veterans of Foreign Wars called the health care program “suspect at best.”
“It is not an entitlement; it is not mandatory; and is subject to availability of funding,” Matthew Claussen wrote. “We wonder what will happen to the veterans who enroll in this program if it is not renewed in the next General Assembly.”
You’d think the Topinka campaign would have publicized this letter last month.
- posted by Rich Miller 19 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
*** UPDATE *** I’ve heard from several people, via calls, e-mail, instant messages and in comments, to now believe that this story about the guv going positive is bogus. Yes, he does have a new positive ad on the air, but he’s still running negative TV ads.
************************************
CBS2 claims the governor’s campaign has gone positive.
But, with a new statewide poll hinting challenger Judy Baar Topinka may be closing the gap, the governor’s campaign shifted gears.
An ad released today never even mentions his opponent. […]
“How nice, we’re going to have something that’s not going to trash me for a change,” said Topinka.
I think they’ve probably still got a negative ad track going, but I’m not yet sure. Anyone out there see any negative spots on morning TV?
As could be expected, the governor’s campaign spokesperson denied they were ever running a lot of negative spots to begin with.
[Sheila] Nix dismissed Topinka’s complaints, and said the Blagojevich campaign has run “many, many more substantive, positive message ads,” than negative ads.
“We know that over half of our ads have been positive,” Nix said.
She said ads which used Topinka’s “own words” weren’t counted as negative.
Paul Green had this zinger in the CBS2 piece:
“She has been the only winner the Republicans had and now she looks like she’s never won a race in her life. It’s just an incredible display of what negative advertising will do to a disinterested and uninformed electorate.”
The governor had this to say in a different CBS2 story:
Earlier, Blagojevich has said, “For four years, we’ve been digging in that mess that George Ryan and his state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka left for us. Sometimes you get a little bit dirty when you’re digging in that mess.â€
And Topinka had a message for voters who are currently parked with the Green Party:
Republican candidate for governor Judy Baar Topinka is asking voters to not “waste their vote” on the Green party candidate. Topinka says she is gaining momentum as we head into the these last few days before the November 7 election. […]
“We’re breaking at just the right time. I’m a good finisher. Always in my elections, I come in strong at the end,” said Judy Baar Topinka, (R)-candidate for governor.
Blagojevich was trying to focus yesterday on the next four years.
The governor told about 200 members of Local 597 of the Pipefitters Union that if he is re-elected he would raise the minimum wage again, pass universal health care and come up with an additional $100 million for stem cell research.
“It’s time for us to send a message to Republicans that health care is not a privilege,” Blagojevich said. “It’s a right. Will you do it? Will you get out there and make sure we’re moving forward? Let’s move Illinois forward.”
- posted by Rich Miller 47 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
[Please scroll down for stories that were posted late last night and early this morning.]
* Tribune: Former Illinois state Supreme Court candidate Gordon Maag’s $110 million defamation lawsuit over a 2004 campaign flier suffered another legal setback Thursday, when an Illinois appellate court on which he once sat tossed out the case.
* Tribune editorial: Obama would be wise to explain, fully and quickly, the prelude to a real estate deal and subsequent transactions related to his acquisition of a $1.65 million home on Chicago’s South Side. If Obama doesn’t shine his own spotlight on his real estate relationship with indicted political fundraiser Antoin “Tony” Rezko, he’ll be fielding questions about Rezko in two years and in 20,
* Pantagraph editorial: Governor’s secrecy an insult to Illinois citizens
* NY Times publishes a story today about Democratic corruption that includes a section on Gov. Blagojevich
* Illinois’ pension nightmare - Funds for teachers, state workers face a $45.8 billion shortfall
* Daily Herald: Jim Sullivan’s union of highway builders has had enough of the Blagojevich administration. Steve Preckwinkle’s teachers union wants to give the governor another four years to improve education.
* Writer defends columns in justice defamation case
* Quote of the Week from Gov. Blagojevich: “The Bears are 7-0. That never happened when [George] Ryan was governor. … All across this state, sports fans are better off than they were four years ago.”
* Tribune: Democrats were preparing a series of rallies Monday featuring Illinois Sens. Barack Obama and Dick Durbin to promote Duckworth, Bean, 10th Congressional District candidate Dan Seals and Todd Stroger, the candidate for Cook County Board president. Seals is challenging North Shore Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, and Stroger faces Republican rival Tony Peraica.
* Hot-button issues on ballot don’t really count
* Despite the positive outlook of Gov. Rod Blagojevich and U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, John Laesch foresees an inevitable economic downturn related to U.S. trade agreements.
* `All politics is local’ takes on new meaning on the Web
* Election campaign lucrative for TV stations
- posted by Rich Miller 14 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
It’s still behind a subscriber firewall and there’s no data available yet even to them, but Rasmussen Reports has a new poll in the governor’s race.
Gov. Blagojevich leads the pack 44-37-14.
Once again, here are all the latest polls:
* 44-37-14 - Rasmussen, Nov. 1 (500 LV)
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)
- posted by Rich Miller 24 Comments
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Friday, Nov 3, 2006
This is a sample ballot distributed by Democratic candidate for Cook County Board Jim Dasakis. Other than the misspelling of one candidate’s name and the rudimentary design, do you notice anything odd? Click for a larger image.
- posted by Rich Miller 28 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
More numbers, this time it’s SurveyUSA. As I’ve been trying to point out lately, it’s almost all about Whitney’s final tally.
Remember when reading this poll that the sample size is very small, 434 likely voters, which means the survey has a margin of error of ±4.8%. They interviewed 1,000 Illinois adults, 885 were registered to vote and less than half of those were deemed to be “likely voters.” If you look at a poll the firm did just a couple of weeks ago, they interviewed 1,000, found 888 registered voters and judged 578 to be likely voters. Whether that means voter turnout is depressed or not, I don’t know. I do know that this current sample size is a bit too small. I also don’t like the fact that they make such bold predictions based on such small sample sizes. Still, here it is…
In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 11/2/06, 5 days to the vote, Democrat incumbent Rod Blagojevich is re-elected, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis.
But, Blagojevich’s margin of victory could be the 8 points that SurveyUSA reports here, or could be larger, depending on other factors. First among them: support for Green Party Candidate Rich Whitney, who receives 14% of the likely vote in today’s SurveyUSA’s poll. If Whitney’s support is more of a protest by voters over how unhappy they are with having to choose between Blagojevich and Topinka, as opposed to genuine enthusiasm for Whitney and the Green Party, then some of Whitney’s support may dry up before Election Day, and that support could go elsewhere, or stay home. Already, Whitney’s support among Independent voters is down from 29% in a SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll on 10/23 to 21% today. Next: some, but not all, parts of Illinois have hotly contested races for the U.S. House of Representatives. In those Congressional Districts, turnout will be higher than it will be in non-competitive U.S. House districts in Illinois.
As SurveyUSA adjusts its turnout model to include more Likely Voters in its respondent pool, Blagojevich’s margin of victory increases, in some scenarios by quite a bit. There is no SurveyUSA scenario in which Topinka wins. In the data SurveyUSA reports here, Blagojevich gets 45%, not materially different than his support in two previous SurveyUSA polls. Topinka today is at 37%. In two previous SurveyUSA polls she had been at 39% and 34%. SurveyUSA expects Blagojevich to finish in the mid 40s, Topinka to finish in the mid 30s. SurveyUSA does not see Blagojevich breaking 50% unless the Green vote disintegrates.
I can’t see Blagojevich getting to 50 percent with any scenario, even if the Green Party support falls apart. I think they’re being a bit too optimistic here. The SurveyUSA prediction of about 45-35 leaves out the implied Whitney number: 20 percent. That seems pretty darned high.
Check the Crosstabs here (remembering that the MoE will be gigantic), look at how the numbers are shaping up with the other polls, then discuss below.
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)
This graph from Pollster.com shows trendlines since October 15.
Meanwhile, this photo of a sign on Bernardi’s Restaurant in Washington, IL was taken by a Peoria-area pal. Get Nieuked is now a movement…
We’re expecting some new ads very soon.
- posted by Rich Miller 19 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
- posted by Rich Miller 8 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
Clever. A dirty trick that is disguised as simply supplying information for voters.
In the contentious battle over congressional seats in the west and northwest suburbs, the two Democratic candidates were crying foul over the National Republican Congressional Committee’s use of automated telephone messages. The messages begin by claiming to provide information about Tammy Duckworth and Melissa Bean, but end up attacking their stances on various issues
I asked the Duckworth campaign about this after a comment about the goings-on appeared here at the blog.
Another dirty little trick they’re using is right out of Rove’s playbook from the RNC in DC is robocalling with a recorded message that starts out, “I have some important information for you about Tammy Duckworthâ€.
Most people hang up on robocalls and that intro is made to sound like a Duckworth call. If they listen to the full message they get an earful of Republican attacks on Duckworth. If they don’t they are redialed, sometimes immediately but always multiple times a day. One guy said he got 14 of these calls in one day.
This is an attempt to block Duckworth’s phonebanking advantage. Numerous times voters have screamed in my ear “Quit calling me!â€.
Listen to the robocall by clicking here. [wav file]
Meanwhile, Laura Bush was in town today for Peter Roskam and David McSweeney.
First Lady Laura Bush urged suburban Republicans today to turn out the vote for GOP candidates in two of the nation’s hardest fought congressional districts, and used a Schaumburg event to put in a pitch for Judy Baar Topinka’s run for governor.
Appearing at a rally on behalf of Peter Roskam, the 6th Congressional District Republican candidate, and David McSweeney, the 8th Congressional District GOP contender, she said victories by the two men are key to continuing the war against terrorism abroad.
“Peter Roskam and David McSweeney stand with our troops. They understand this election is critical,” she said to a crowd of about 1,000 at the Renaissance Convention Center. Acknowledging that the Iraq War has tested the public’s emotions, she said, “We must have the debate at home in a way that does not jeopardize our troops.”
Also, Roskam just sent out a release promising a “Late breaking special campaign announcement” tomorrow morning.
- posted by Rich Miller 22 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
Dan Curry is a blogger, but he also works for the Topinka-Birkett campaign. With that in mind, have a look at his latest entry.
Does the Rod Blagojevich family regard state government as its personal ATM? […]
What about Rod’s brother, Robert Blagojevich?
Once Rod became governor, Robert’s employer, Fifth Third Bank, got a turbo boost in state business.
One of the biggest boons was a no-bid exclusive contract to provide ATM services at the newly redesigned tollway oases. That same pile of no-bid oases contracts already has been subpoenaed by the feds because of ties to Blagojevich’s top fundraisers Tony Rezko and Chris Kelly through companies such as Subway and Panda Express. Another contract in that pile went to the official pizza of the NY Yankees, Famous Famiglia, a company with a corporate connection to convicted felon Eddie DeBartolo Jr. ABC 7’s Chuck Goudie did a three-part series on the Famous Famiglia contract in early 2005.
Although I don’t have the paperwork on it, the State Board of Investments also gave Fifth Third its first ever investment contract right about the same time Robert Blagojevich reportedly was leaving the company, in late 2003 or early 2004.
And guess who brought that contract to the State Board of Investments? A company connected to Nick Hurtgen. Go read the whole thing.
- posted by Rich Miller 53 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
Will people cast a protest vote for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who most likely can’t win, or will they vote for one of the two major party candidates?
Most importantly, what will be Whitney’s final percent?
- posted by Rich Miller 70 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
The governor’s over the top “defense” of his wife’s business dealings with people connected to state government won’t go away. The guv defended her by attacking critics as “Neanderthals.” The result is the governor’s campaign took a story buried on the same Friday that Stu Levine pled guilty and kept it alive for almost a week by injecting a bogus claim of sexism into the equation.
Topinka added more fuel to the fire yesterday.
Republican governor candidate Judy Baar Topinka on Wednesday proposed restricting outside income for the families of statewide elected officials, citing the real-estate business of First Lady Patricia Blagojevich.
Topinka’s proposal was in response to a recent Tribune report that found Patricia Blagojevich received $113,000 in real estate commissions on behalf of a longtime no-bid state contractor whose husband also had bank regulatory issues pending before the state. The four commissions were the only ones she made so far this year. […]
Kent Redfield, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said it had nothing to do with sexism, but with the appearance of a conflict of interest.
That’s the very same appearance of conflict that all state employees are warned to avoid. It’s the same conflict that all attorneys, reporters and just about anyone with any common sense avoids. And since Mrs. Blagojevich only did the one deal this year, it shouldn’t be asking too much of her to check to see if there were any potential conflicts of interest.
This is the old way of doing business. The very old way.
Here’s more from a Southern Illinoisan columnist (I assume it’s Jim Muir, but I didn’t see a name listed).
When questioned by the media about those obvious connections, the governor responded in a way that shows exactly how the political game in Illinois is played these days. Blagojevich said that anybody who questions or suggests that his wife landed the deal because he is governor is a “Neanderthal.”
In other words, politicians these days don’t have to answer questions about things like people who are under state contract doing business with family members of elected officials. They simply discredit the person asking the questions and label them as a “Neanderthal.”
I suppose that would mean that any person asking questions about $1,500 birthday gifts, “endemic hiring fraud,” federal investigations into hiring and contract irregularities at multiple state agencies, 60-year-old interns who were given preference over military veterans and that growing list of indictments would also have to be labeled a “Neanderthal.”
Meanwhile, the Tribune editorial board is sick of the governor’s attacks on Topinka.
It’s not fair, though, to portray Topinka the way Blagojevich has–as a loathsome consort of criminals. Blagojevich has spent millions of dollars crafting his phony image of Topinka as the kind of little-bit-nutty woman that her own son should be embarrassed to love. […]
If this gutter strategy pays off, get used to it.
The governor, incidentally, says his vile attack ads merely differentiate him from Topinka.
How convenient that Blagojevich is racing to his own defense. He won’t have to stand in line.
Topinka struck back against some of the attacks yesterday. NBC5:
Republican candidate for governor Judy Baar Topinka began her day Wednesday hopping mad, her voice shaking as she blasted Gov. Rod Blagojevich for an ad taking her to task for her history with veterans.
“He has yet to show up with veterans groups and then he has the gall to sit there and take me on, when my kid’s been to Afghanistan and back,” she said.
A Lee Newspapers article, not a column, compared the governor to George Ryan.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich appears to have ripped a page from his predecessor’s playbook as he seeks to seal up support for a second term.
Over the final two months of the campaign season, the Chicago Democrat has crisscrossed Illinois distributing state dollars for everything from a wind farm in central Illinois to a river research facility near Alton.
An informal tally of the dollars he’s handed out indicates Blagojevich has spread an estimated $45 million around the state through a series of high-profile announcements — just in time for voters to head to the polls.
The spending on new snowmobile trails and expanded Amtrak service is similar to what convicted former Gov. George Ryan did during his tenure as chief executive, which Blagojevich roundly criticized when he ran for governor in 2002.
Blagojevich campaign spokeswoman Sheila Nix said the governor’s announcements are not the same as Ryan’s.
And Kristen McQueary wonders what’s up with the female vote?
Alas, impossible-to-please women voters are to blame for forcing female politicians to downplay their feminine attributes, even though we gossip about them anyway.
- posted by Rich Miller 34 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
The new Copley poll has Alexi Giannoulias leading Christine Radogno by just six points, 39-33, with 7 percent for the Green Party candidate and a whopping 21 percent still undecided.
“All the polls we’ve seen have shown (Giannoulias) with a strong lead. Our internal polls had Alexi up by 12 points,” said Giannoulias spokesman Scott Burnham, adding that other recent surveys have shown the margin as high as 17.
Here are the most recent polls in the race, including the latest Copley poll:
* 39-33-7 - Copley, Oct. 30-31
* 40-23-5 - Tribune, Oct.30-31
* 44-37-1 Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26
* 43-34-6 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22
* 33-29 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15
* 38-26 - Copley, Sept. 19-21
There really isn’t much else in the story except the numbers in the other down-ballot races:
Incumbent Secretary of State Jesse White holds a 41-point lead over his GOP challenger, state Sen. Dan Rutherford of Chenoa. The poll showed White with 65 percent of the prospective vote, Rutherford with 24 percent and Green Party candidate Karen Young Peterson at 3 percent.
Attorney General Lisa Madigan would collect 64 percent of the vote for re-election, the poll shows, compared with 22 percent for the GOP candidate, Tazewell County State’s Attorney Stewart Umholtz, and 4 percent for David Black of the Green Party.
Comptroller Dan Hynes leads Republican state Sen. Carole Pankau of Itasca by 23 points, according to the poll, 49 percent to 26 percent.
Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has a story on the battle entitled “Youth seems to be trumping experience in treasurer race” and the AP has a piece on Radogno’s objection to Giannoulias’ latest campaign ad.
State treasurer candidate Christine Radogno accused her opponent of running a “desperate” campaign ad that distorts the truth, but Democrat Alexi Giannoulias stood by the television commercial Wednesday.
The ad claims Radogno, a Republican state senator, voted to let utility and telephone companies raise rates. It cites as its source an Oct. 23 Chicago Sun-Times story.
But Radogno’s name appears nowhere in the article. […]
“The citation doesn’t say she voted for the raise,” said campaign spokesman Scott Burnham. “It refers to the article that says as a result of the legislature’s actions, the utility giants had the authority to increase rates.”
- posted by Rich Miller 15 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
* Daily Herald: Sort through the charges and counter-charges, however, and what emerges is that none of the four congressional candidates is putting forth a plan that would keep Social Security from going bankrupt after Baby Boomers retire and there aren’t enough workers left to keep the program afloat.
* Oy: Voting equipment glitches lingering
* And another oy: Early voters finding machines aren’t without faults
* Brown: Obama’s dealings with Rezko buy a parcel of questions
* Sneed has a bit about those state mailers to families of “newborns” from the governor
* St. Amand: “I racked my brain to come up with Dan Hynes as the Democrat and Carole Pankau as the Republican in the comptroller’s race. I knew Alexi Giannoulias was the Democrat running for treasurer, but I couldn’t spell his name. And I drew a blank on Christine Radogno as the Republican candidate.”
* Bernie: GOP worried about ‘throwaway’ votes for Whitney
* Tridgell: They can’t drive [on Tollway] much faster than 55
* Privatized lottery: The ticket to ride?
* Web tactic on foe’s behalf upsets appellate court candidate
* Parties thinking small to get votes - Microtargeting helps find sympathetic ears
* Tribune: The two candidates running to replace retiring Cook County Sheriff Michael Sheahan agree the department must be modernized and should embrace a more effective use of technology. Beyond that, there is little common ground linking Democrat Tom Dart and Republican Peter Garza.
- posted by Rich Miller 4 Comments
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006
Copley’s complete poll story doesn’t tell us much. Blagojevich’s lead, according to the poll, has shrunk to just 4 percent, 44-40-7 with 9 percent still undecided. The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 points.
“These poll results are vastly different from three public polls released this week … and our own internal polling that shows us with leads of as much as 16 points,” [Blagojevich spokesperson Sheila] Nix said in a statement.
If they’re up by 16, why would they be running such hard negative ads? Also, here is how Copley compares to the last several polls:
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15
Among independents who have made up their minds, 41 percent prefer Topinka, 37 percent Blagojevich and 12 percent Whitney.
No mention of who the all-important undecided voters are, or how they’ve broken since the last Copley poll, rendering this story not nearly as useful as it could be. Still, knowing the way independents are breaking is helpful. It would be nice to know if she’s doing any better with her own base of Republicans and how she’s doing with Democrats (Republicans cannot win Illinois without taking a chunk of the Democratic vote.)
Voters also said the Illinois economy is in the doldrums, with 33 percent saying the economy is on the right track and 48 percent saying it is not. Less than half of those identifying themselves as Democrats (46 percent) said the economy is on the right track.
That’s not great news for the governor, who has been proclaiming the robustness of the state’s economy. If undecideds break on that pocket-book issue alone, the race will tighten.
Besides this, there is the usual stuff about how both major candidates are unpopular and how the Rezko/Levine scandals make voters somewhat less likely to support Blagojevich (28 percent) and Topinka (11 percent), how the public is split on whether Blagojevich has conducted himself ethically while in office (41 yes, 43 no) and how his job performance rating is in the tank, with 66 percent rating it fair or poor.
Undecideds are the key, of course. This late in the game it’s good to know whether they even intend to vote and if they do vote who they are and which way they might break. None of these questions were answered by Copley’s poll - or at least they weren’t included in this story. Maybe there will be more detail later today or tomorrow. Let’s hope so.
SurveyUSA is said to be in the field, so we should have more numbers soon. Unlike Copley (so far, at least) SurveyUSA publishes its crosstabs.
The last Copley poll, released in late September, had the race at 47-37-4, with 12 percent undecided.
- posted by Rich Miller 26 Comments
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