AFSCME Organized labor paid for polls in some aldermanic races two weeks ago. The polls were conducted by Mark Penn. Remember, however, that turnout is probably going to be extremely low in next month’s runoff election, so the biggest question is who will actually vote. Polls will have a tough time guaging that right now.
Here are some quick, topline results…
* 2nd Ward - Fioretti 50, Haithcock 24
* 3rd Ward - Dowell 53, Tillman 35
* 16th Ward - Thompson 45, Coleman 40 (After negative “push” questions about Ald. Coleman’s vote against “living wage” ordinance and other stuff, Thompson leads 52-32)
* 21st Ward - Jones 41, Brookins 40
* 32nd Ward - Waguespack 47, Matlack 33 (Tons of Machine hacks deployed to this ward for Ald. Matlack, but other polls also show the incumbent in very serious trouble)
* 35th Ward - Colon 52, Colom 47 (Ald. Mell is reportedly in big for Vilma Colom)
* 49th Ward - Joe Moore 47, Gordon 42 (I’m hearing from lots of sources that Ald. Moore is in big trouble there, with Gordon signs popping up all over the place)
* 50th Ward - Dolar 48, Stone 44 (Biggest question is who turns out to vote in an extremely low turnout election, with the betting that Ald. Stone’s base will vote. He also has a top-notch campaign manager now.)
*** UPDATE *** Naisy Dolar’s own poll has her leading Ald. Stone 47-40. From the executive summary…
This [Goodwin Simon Victoria Research] memorandum reports on the findings of a poll taken in the 50th Ward of Chicago March 18-20, 2007. Four hundred registered, likely voters for the April 17 municipal runoff election were interviewed. […]
* Stone’s… job rating is 43% positive to 55% negative… A majority of voters (53%) agree that “Bernie Stone has been around for too long and it is time to give someone new a chance.†Only 38% choose the alternative, “Bernie Stone has done a good job as Alderman for the last 33 years and deserves to be re-elected.â€
* In contrast, Naisy Dolar’s name recognition is climbing steadily and her ratings are overwhelmingly positive. Currently about six in ten voters recognize and can rate Dolar, and those ratings are a very strong 52% favorable to only 6% unfavorable. […]
* The initial trial heat is 47% for Dolar, 40% for Stone, and 13% Undecided. […]
* On a list of eight local issues, when voters are asked whether they think Bernie Stone or a “new Alderman like Naisy Dolar†would be better on each issue, there is not one single issue where 33-year veteran Bernie Stone is viewed as the better choice.