* If the Politico had more analytical stories like this one, I might read it more often. A well-done story on the impact of the early primaries is like finding a diamond in a pig pen…
“It’s very conceivable people will go door-knocking around Christmas break,” said Simon Behrmann, spokesman for Jay Footlik, a Democrat seeking the nomination against Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.). “This is definitely something we’ve never seen here in Illinois.” […]
Christine Dudley, the former executive director of the Illinois Republican Party, said it also will be a challenge for congressional candidates to compete for the voters’ attention during a period that is normally dominated by sports. […]
“You’ll be seeing lots of Christmas cards with veiled political messages,” said Dudley. “It’s distracting, and in this media market, people care a lot more about sports than they do about politics.”
The nine-month gap between the primaries and the November election also poses a challenge to many campaigns. One Illinois Democratic campaign manager predicted that he would have to lay off some staff after the primary.
“It puts a premium on doing the work on a campaign much earlier,” the operative said. “I can’t keep my organizers for nine months. There’s not enough news … to pay salaries.”
This uncertain terrain could have far-reaching effects, as Illinois is hosting its share of competitive primaries that could affect the balance of power in the House.
* Could the February primary hurt campaign fundraising for down-ballot candidates?
“Maybe it’s an old wives’ tale, but people usually follow it - usually during that period of time, people are more interested in using their funds for Christmas, for the holidays,” [Kane County State’s Attorney John Barsanti] said.
* The state’s fundraising disclosure calendar has been adjusted to fit the new reality…
Normally, fundraising committees have to submit two campaign finance reports before each primary. The regular semi-annual report is due Jan. 31 and the pre-election report is due 30 days before the election.
As that pre-election report would be due Jan. 5, the measure also combined those two reports into one report, due Jan. 20. This would only take place in even-numbered years.
* This article points out other hurdles…
*Illinois (Feb. 5). Cook County needs to train 12,000 poll workers in January, when many retirees have left for Florida or other warm areas. In Rock Island County, about 80% of the 325 poll workers usually are seniors. “We hope we won’t be tearing around the day before the election just trying to find somebody who can fog a mirror,” County Clerk Richard Leibovitz says.
* And…
* Mailing absentee ballots. The ballots, which are sent to as many as 6 million military and civilian voters overseas, must be mailed 45 days before the elections. In states holding early primaries, that could mean during the holidays, when mail delivery is slow, increasing the potential for disenfranchising voters, says Brad Bryant of Kansas, president of the National Association of State Election Directors.
* Negotiating bad weather. Earlier primaries boost the chance of snow and ice, which could make it tough to open, supply and staff polling places. Several cold-weather states are moving their elections into midwinter, including Illinois, New Jersey and New York.
* As Kate Clements points out, we’re not alone…
Twenty states, including Illinois, have either adopted a Feb. 5 primary date or are considering doing so.
* And that has forced presidential candidates to adjust, as this admittedly outdated NY Times story attests…
Aides to the candidates said they were debating whether the changes would mean that the nominations would effectively be settled on Feb. 5, by which point easily 50 percent of the delegates are likely to have been chosen, or whether a few strong candidates would divide the Feb. 5 take, forcing the campaign to stretch on for months. That could, oddly enough, make those fewer states sticking to later primaries vital players in the election cycle.
The changes are forcing candidates to decide whether Iowa and New Hampshire, two states with contests before Feb. 5, will become more influential as contenders look for early victories to give them momentum. And with as many as 23 states voting on a single day — more states than are typically considered competitive in a general election — candidates must decide which ones to ignore, given the demands on their time and bank accounts. […]
For Democrats, the prospect of a mega-primary has created a new calculation about the importance of black voters, already a constituency being fiercely courted by Mr. Obama, who is seeking to become the nation’s first black president, and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. There are hardly any black voters in Iowa and New Hampshire; by contrast, they could play an important role in California, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey and New York.