The Capitol Fax Blog » Question of the day

Friday, Sep 28, 2007

The setup from Sneed…

Tipsville: State Sen. Kirk Dillard tells Sneed he’s seriously considering running for a statewide office for the first time.

• • Quoth Dillard: “I would consider running in 2010 if there’s an open seat, especially if the Illinois attorney general seat opens up.'’

• • The gov’s job? Dillard claims he doesn’t have his sights on the governor’s mansion but . . .”I am keeping my options open.” There ya go.

Question: Rate Dillard’s chances.

- posted by Rich Miller

42 Comments

- Anon - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:20 am:
“we’d have better luck finding a three legged ballerina” than Kirk getting elected satatewide.

“We’d have better luck playing pick up sticks with our buttcheeks” than Kirk Dillard getting elected statewide.

Quotes courtesy of John Candy from Planes, Trains, and Automobiles

- Team Sleep - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:24 am:
If Senator Dillard runs for governor in the primary against Senator Brady, I think Dillard could win and go on in the general. I think he could win the general election if he can raise the money and show the electorate that he can manage the state better than our current guv.

If he ran for another office and the incumbent were still in, he would get beat. As Dan Rutherford showed last year, a well-funded and well-known candidate can still be slaughtered if he or she goes up against a machine.

- Ghost - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:24 am:
Stewart Umholtz, if he decides to run for AG, has the best shot at it. I still think his campaign was handeled brilliantly. instead of smashing up against Lisa madigan he runs a low key campaign, practically endorses madigan himself, but gets his name out. Next election he has name recognition without any tarnish. Dillard does not have a chance in comparison.

- Bob and Doug McKenzie - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:26 am:
The late John Candy would beat him in a GOP primary after the Obama stunt Dillard pulled.

If the Republicans could take a page from the Democrats and vote for some dead people once in a while.

- Truthful James - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:33 am:
Kirk will undoubtedly garner endorsements from the “Powers That Were” — Chubby Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, and George Ryan if he still is out of jail.

The Repubs need a leader now to organize and direct the Party. The Great Buddha, Andy McKenna is busy snointing himself for the Governor’s race. The State party is close to broke, after six years of letting the nationals come in and take out all the big donor money.

Ringling Bros., Barnum and Bailey (aka, Blago, Jones and Madigan) have given so many issues which could be exploited by a strong opposition which the Whigs are not.

- True Observer - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:35 am:
Some said Umhotz was a Lipinski like plant. If he had at least acted like a serious candidate, he could have been the new congressman from the 18th.

- Repub - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:36 am:
Dillard doesn’t have a chance of getting out of a primary. On top of that, he doesn’t even have a volunteer base - have you seen how many people walk with him at parades??? He even calls kids who have in the past won his GA scholarship to walk with him in a parade. It’s not gonna happen … Tom Cross has the best chance of winning whatever office Lisa Madigan is not holding

- Dragnet 1967 (Blue Boy Episode) - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:36 am:
Ghost: Are you on LSD? Umholtz’s campaign was the single worst campaign for a top constitutional office (not counting primaries, Comptroller, Treasurer or Edwin “Ed Wood directed my commercials” Eisendrath) I have seen in 25 years (of noticing.) There are other nominees. Plenty. But this was bogus.

When your entire media blitz consists of buying an ad in the DAR journal, what are you thinking?

I still wonder if the entire thing was a set-up, considering the candidates’s wife was a SAAG.

Better than a home invasion charge, though.

Yikes.

- VanillaMan - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:37 am:
Kirk Dillard will make a serious candidate for any statewide office.

He isn’t a lightweight. Every step he has taken in his public career has been well thought out. He has the talent, skills and the ability to be serve in any statewide office he seeks. During any campaign he will make this clear to the majority of Illinois voters.

He is for real, which would be a shocking change to what we have been used to in the Governor’s office.

Every executive in public office, be it president or governor, indirectly creates within voters a successor with traits found lacking in the current officeholders. When you consider what we have been enduring under Blagojevich, it will be natural for someone like Hynes, M.Madigan, Dillard or Gidwitz to fit this theory.

So Dillard is a serious player and will approach his campaign seriously.

The drive by comments so far have been ridiculous and rather not well thought out.

- Elephant's Memory - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:47 am:
Vanilla: I agree with you more than I disagree.

Thus, I am surprised to see you extolling the virtues of Sen. Dillard.

Can you explain to me why the Obama ad was not a bad move?

And how can he possibly beat Fritchey for AG in ‘10?

- Rob_N - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:48 am:
Rich commaded, “Rate Dillard’s chances.”

It’s 2007. He’s talking about 2010.

His chances are as good as Christine Radogno’s were in 2003.

- True Observer - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:49 am:
VanillaMan’s Dissertation on Dillard does not rise to Poshard’s level of scholarship.

- the pug is on the prowl - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:51 am:
the obama thing eliminated any chances of winning a primary

- Repub - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:55 am:
Vanilla, I agree with you as well - he will be a serious contender because he will have the funding for an office. However what do you mean when you say all of his moves in his career have been well thought out - he basically only votes PRESENT in the Senate. That shows a complete lack of leadership

- Ilrino - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:56 am:
Would he run in a primary against Tom Cross?

- VanillaMan - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:57 am:
TO - That wasn’t a dissertation.

Elephant - The GOP needs to win and will select a winner, even one that crossed party lines. Mr. Obama’s campaign isn’t going to burn the GOP because it will remain in the “Oprah stage”, until January when he drops out. By the next election, GOPers will be able to see the advantages of nominating a guy willing to support a likable Illinoian in his failing bid for President. It isn’t a big enough sin.

Dillard would be a serious candidate. Period.

- Islamorada Here I Come - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:00 am:
A Cross-Dillard primary.

Anyone want to go fishing with me down in the keys?

Meet me at Marker 88.

- Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:02 am:
===I still think his campaign was handeled brilliantly. ===

Yeah, brilliant for Madigan, who finished with a higher percentage than Obama did vs. Keyes.

- Elephant's Memory - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:05 am:
I still don’t know about Dillard’s chances, Vanilla. Maybe it is personal with me.

But I think you’re correct about Barack Obama (B.O.)

The media seems to be bailing on him, and if he is taking matching funds, he has to at least act like a candidate through January, a la McCain as well.

- Elephant's Memory - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:10 am:
Yes, Rich. It’s like in ‘98 when Jim Burns got only three more votes than I did, and I wasn’t even running in the Democratic primary for Governor.:)

Sorry, Ghost, but you had it coming with that line.

- Mr. Cub - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:10 am:
I’m a Dem and I’d vote for Kirk. We need more smart, straight-talkers like him. It’s not about the party any more; it’s about the person, and Kirk seems like a good one.

- VanillaMan - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:11 am:
When I mentioned how thoroughly he considers his next career move, I wasn’t referring to his Senate votes. When he votes, he balances it in consideration of the issue, and what the Senate GOP can meaningfully do on the issue. Voting “present” is all that is left when you factor in these variable. A decision to vote “present” isn’t a first choice for legislators, but a necessary fall-back in order to continue working within bipartisan teams. When you are in the minority, you get nothing passed without bipartisanship. You don’t make every vote a throw-down or you wouldn’t stay on a team to get your bigger goals accomplished.

Mavericks have been praised and elected by the Illinois GOP for years into statewide offices. So any maverick like Mr. Dillard would find that voters will listen to them.

Thanks for your time!

- blogman - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:11 am:
Don’t forget that he was Edgar’s chief of staff and should have a lot of connections from that. I think he has a good chance; certainly better than most of the names you hear.

- True Observer - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:12 am:
The sleeping giant of DuPage County is Schillerstrom.

- Elephant's Memory - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:19 am:
Thanks for answering the questions, V.

- Team Sleep - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:19 am:
Umholtz’s campaign was bad, but Pankau’s was worse. Both were duds. I don’t think Umholtz was a plant but he sure did little to disprove the insider perception that he was a patsy.

Organization for Senator Dillard could change greatly if he decided to start hitting all of the Lincoln Day dinners and fundraisers outside of his district. That is how Dan Rutherford built up his army of, um, volunteers. Give Dillard some time and he might be able to pull in some support.

Do I think he would run against Cross? No way. But Dillard would certainly have to eye the Governor’s Mansion in 2010. But I also don’t think he would run for AG, either. It would be tough for a Republican to win that seat if Lisa Madigan leaves the office gift-wripped for the Dem candidate. Of course, that goes back to Rich’s QOTD from Tuesday…

- Joe in the Know - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 11:38 am:
I think Dillard likes to plant these stories from time to time, but he suffers from “Fred Thompson Syndrome”, a perception that he is lazy. I think the one candidate that has a shot at winning the AG post for the GOP is Jim Durkin. He was endorsed over Durbin by both the Trib and Sun Times and ran a credible campaign, with scant money.

- Ghost - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 12:40 pm:
I may be wrong, but IMHO Umholtz was smart not to Smash himself to pieces against Madigan. Time will tell whether he was crafty or incompitent. Dillard on the other hand smashes himself into everything. I do not percieve he will have much of a support base or chance in 2010.

- formergopstaffer - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 12:45 pm:
I’ve known Kirk for almost 30 years since we were on Senate staff. I always thought he would go onto something bigger, thought it would be Senate leader but that didn’t work out. Now AG would be the most logical if Lisa runs for Governor. If she doesn’t then it would be suicide. And the right wing of the GOP will always oppose him as a moderate but in a Democrat state, a moderate is our only chance to get back into play.

- True Observer - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 12:47 pm:
Lest we forget -

It has happened before. It will happen again.

The machine might go with the Republican Dillard over the Democrat.

- Captain America - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 12:54 pm:
Dillard’s exactly the type of candidate Republicans shoud be seeking to run for state constitutional offices. He has a chance of winning because he can appeal to moderate and swing voters in both parties in the Chicago metropolitan areas. If conservatives want the Republicans to be competitive In Illinois they are going to have to support moderates like Dillard.

- scoot - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 1:20 pm:
I think it would be great…whatever statewide office he decides to run for I support him. AG would be exciting if Madigan were to move on.

- 312 - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 1:21 pm:
IMHO, Dillard is BRILLIANT as an insider, but isn’t that well known to “Joe & JoAnn Voter”. If he leverages his political pedigree and crafts a positive image to statewide voters (ie, use that charm), he’s got a great chance — but it’s going to take some hard work getting out among the population.

Remember Bob Churchill? Great resume, but totally unknown out of the statehouse and Lake County — BUT he expected his name recognition with the insiders to translate into votes. It didn’t.

I agree w/Captain America that this is the type of candidate the Illinois Republicans should be recruiting… it could make strong D’s like myself cross over during the GENERAL and pick a few from the other column.

Note: I said GENERAL, not primary. I don’t think my precinct has Republican primary ballots ;-)

- Shelbyville - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 2:11 pm:
How old is Dillard? I am guessing he is younger than Tom Cross?? But Tom seems to be in better physical condition.

Dillard is OK. Cross is OK. Heck, we have to run someone, don’t we?

- Team Sleep - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 3:46 pm:
Shelbyville, Cross is younger and I think he’s got a lot more energy. Although I like him and think he’s an able politician, I question his strategy and think he hires some odd staffers. If he changed his direction or staff hierarchy, the House GOP caucus might actually gain some seats. That along makes me worry about a possible Cross bid for governor.

- Anonymous - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 4:00 pm:
As good of a chance as the cubs have winning the world series, a big fat 0 chance

- scoot - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 4:35 pm:
The Obama ad is just a friend supporting a friend. By the way Dillard has endorsed Mccain in 08.’

- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 4:35 pm:
Slim and None.

Back in the day, when he was on staff, he had a reputation for “measuring the curtains in the Mansion,” if you will.

Didn’t make friends when he ran for leader against Watson.

Just don’t see it.

- Repub - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 8:33 pm:
Vanillaman (or should I say Dillard),
I have to respectfully disagree with your statement about a present vote being “necessary fall-back in order to continue working within bipartisan teams” A present vote vote on a large issue because the leader of party is trying to negotiate the terms of the bill is one thing. However Dillard is known for voting present on a varity of bills that had enough votes to pass out of the chamber. He’s just afraid to be on record for supporting or opposing various issues. Thus, Dillard does not have the backbone to be one of our statewide candidates.
I will agree with one additional comment. If Dillard survives a primary he has a very good chance of winning the general - IF he survives the primary.

- Madison County Watcher - Friday, Sep 28, 07 @ 10:35 pm:
A republican won’t win in Illinois until they can prove that they can fundraise on par with their Democrat opponent. Dillard would possess the skills to narrow that gap, thus making him more appealing than the wanna-be candidates that Illinois Republicans have had to hold their nose and vote for in the past three cycles.

But, it’s unlikely that the IL GOP could get their act together by 2010 anyway, so it’s unlikely Dillard would be willing to ruin his career by sticking himself out in the fray.

Will Dillard be in the middle of his four-year term in 2010?

- Come Saturday Morning - Saturday, Sep 29, 07 @ 7:23 am:
Cross is younger than Dillard.
The AG’s office will be gift-wrapped for a Democratic successor. Probably Fritchey.
Lots of people measure the curtains at every level of Government and they are, indeed, annoying.
Bob Churchill wasn’t that great.
I don’t think Durkin will run for AG.

- Anonymoose - Saturday, Sep 29, 07 @ 7:14 pm:
Not gonna happen. The Obama ad is a millstone around his neck for the remainder of his career. More likely to run for Biggert’s seat when she retires from Congress.

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