1. - Ghost - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 9:59 am:

   VanillaMan I have to disagree, the problem is not the single party, its what the elected officials are doing or failing to do.




2. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:02 am:

   OK, what do you think effects news and voters more, the Weller story or the Springfield situation? What makes people angrier?

   If you believe Weller will stay an issue until the next election, then Balderman needs to explain why Weller is propping up his campaign. If you believe the Springfield meltdown will stay an issue until the next election, then Halvorson needs to start answering why she silently sat back as Majority Leader and did nothing, and she will have to explain why Emil Jones is propping up her campaign.

   Weller is history, but could still be a campaign issue. The situation in Springfield is NOW and will return next year as an issue, so it will remain a campaign issue with more problems for Halvorson.

   What reporters will do over the next year is keep Weller an issue throughout the campaign as it also keeps Blagojevich and Jones as issues too.

   The Weller/Balderman relationship is fleeting, while the Jones/Halvorson relationship is 12 years old and well established. It will be easier for Balderman to dump Weller than it will be for Halvorson to dump Jones.

   But the bottom line is which story effects voters more? I bet it is the rotten situation in Springfield and Halvorson’s role in it.




3. - gulag - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:19 am:

   The Pantagraph needs to get a new globe. Guatemala is part of Central America, not South America.




4. Pingback Understatement of the Year: Jerry Weller « Illinois Reason - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:25 am:

   […] Tuesday, October 16th, 2007 in Congressional Campaigns by robnesvacil Rich Miller opines: But Weller could be a liability for Baldermann, as this excerpt hints… Weller was supposed to appear at Monday’s breakfast with Baldermann, but cancelled because a family-related issue, said McLean County Republican Party Chairman John Parrott. [emphasis added] […]




5. - ShyGal - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 11:57 am:

   Balderman is the wrong candidate. He is propped up by African American Alderman from Chicago. Check out his D-2s as mayor. The voters will see that he’s just wanting to consolodate more power for himself — mayor of one community, chief of police in another.




6. - Levois - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 12:15 pm:

   A Republican propped by by black Chicago alderman? How is that even possible?




7. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 12:47 pm:

   Because he’s something of a RINO. As previously discussed, his donor list from past campaigns includes labor and Democrats… I would guess he’s really a Democrat hoping to gather votes from all of the confused Republicans.




8. - Mad as Hell - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 1:02 pm:

   Hey ShyGal-

   I just looked at the D-2s. All I see is $1500 from former alderman Beavers. Is that what you are talking about? You think that means Baldermann is being “propped-up”? Are you serious?




9. - archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 2:42 pm:

   People blame Blagojevich almost entirely:
   From Rasmussen:
   http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_cont
   ent/politics/election_2008__1/state_topline
   s/illinois_toplines_august_23_2007

   11* Who is most to blame for the government’s budget stalemate—Governor Rod Blagojevich, the state legislature, special interest groups, or voters?

   53% Blagojevich
   19% State Legislature
   20% Special Interest Groups
   2% Voters
   7% Not Sure

   The average voter isn’t the average outraged CapFax commenter.




10. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 2:44 pm:

    That’s true, Larry, but the idea would be to tie her to Rod and hang him around her neck like an anvil. It’s not a difficult case to make, either.




11. - archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 3:01 pm:

    Rod’s a problem, but it’s also someone she can run against. There is all this talk of Springfield, but by all accounts this is going to be a nationalized election on war and the Bush administration. Those are the top issues, state politics are secondary issues.

    The difference between the two parties in Illinois is fairly easy exploit for Democrats. Democrats have no problem blasting Rod and using that to get credibility–and it’s fairly easy to do for Illinois Democrats because no one is going to balk if Halvorson attacks him–indeed others will pile on. It’s acceptable behavior in the Democratic Party.

    The bigger anvil is George Bush who Balderman cannot run away from or he loses his base. He could run against him, but his base deserts him if he does. Bush is unpopular overall, but incredibly popular in his 30% of voters who think Iraq is just dandy and that the administration is Churchillian.

    The vulnerable spot for Halvorson and her time in Springfield was the electric rate issue and that’s been resolved now.

    It is a slight Republican lean and so it’ll be a close race, but the race won’t be a referendum on Springfield.




12. - FED UP - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 3:47 pm:

    Rod is a problem for her and so is Emil jones. We could start with the chicago state scandal go to the way e. Jones and halvorson held up electric rate relief go to the ethics bill Halvorson refuses to let out of her commitee maybe take a look at the mass transit crisis then go to the tax increases and fee increases under blago. Blago and jones will cost halvorson the shot at an open seat but she was there as majority leader for all the follys so she gets the blame.




13. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 3:51 pm:

    I’m sure it’ll be a big issue, but I would stay away from predicting outcomes with utmost confidence, if I were you.




14. - Rob_N - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 4:32 pm:

    FED UP,

    I hear the janitor gets a lot of the blame too… Or was it the Jimmy Johns sandwichmaker?

    Get real. Just because you think it’s easy blaming Halvorson for Blago’s antics doesn’t mean the smart folks of the 11th will agree. And knock on 10 doors anywhere in the 11th. I bet you’re lucky if 1, maybe 2, folks will even know who Emil Jones is. Of the 3 tops, where does his name recognition come in?




15. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 5:08 pm:

    arch,

    As we all know, perception = reality if a political opponent can successfully paint a picture, and the target isn’t effective in blunting the criticism. If I were Baldermann, I would do enough “education” so more people in the 11th would know who Emil Jones is, and then throw the millstone around Deb’s neck with a good measure of Rod thrown in. If I were Deb, I would spend at least as much time on Baldermann’s Chicago D ties (”Baldermann…rhymes with alderman”) to tying him to George Bush. Anti-Chicago fervor will resonate more in the 11th than anti-Bush, although there is ground to be gained there also.




16. - Super Mega - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 5:12 pm:

    Sounds like Baldermann is yet to be THE candidate for the GOP side.

    My understanding is that Lee has the ability to raise some money, having a fundraising background.




17. - Bill - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 6:49 pm:

    Vanman,
    12 years ago Emil had absolutely np idea who Halvorson was. He played no role in her election and rarely , if ever, drove through her district unless he was on his way to the patch.
    Nobody in that district, except maybe state employees, car




18. - Bill - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 6:52 pm:

    whoops, fat fingers little keys,
    …cares what happens in Springfield. Debbie is a champion for blocking JJJr’s Peotone airport.
    She will be a strong candidate with an excellent chance to win.




19. - MinGOP - Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:49 pm:

    Is it just me or do people really think that Balderman can really win with Weller’s support. I haven’t really seen him run a hard race yet.




20. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Oct 17, 07 @ 8:24 am:

    ===As we all know, perception = reality if a political opponent can successfully paint a picture, and the target isn’t effective in blunting the criticism.

    That’s definitely true and my assumption is that Halvorson isn’t the kind of candidate to sit back and let someone savage her. ;)

    In the world of if I was doing things, she can take the wind out of the sails of the arguments a bit by doing some independent things now. I could see here moving HB 1 out of rules or the such.




21. - RichMillerFan - Wednesday, Oct 17, 07 @ 11:26 am:

    Balderman is making a bad mistake on many fronts. One, he is running a campaign under the assumption that he is the GOP nominee. Many GOP leaders have been supportive (but not too aggressive), because there is no credible candidate that has publicly stepped forward. Jimmy Lee will surprise people with his fundraising prowness, much like Aaron Schock has pleasantly surprised folks, when he offically announces, assuming he does.

    Two, the GOP voters will have a problem with the fact that he is moves where the political opportunites lie. He enjoys being mayor when convenient, but functions as head of police in another. Now that a seat is open, he’s blowing off the voters of New Lenox who supported him.

    Three, he cannot hide the fact that he is supported by Chicago labor. When the good conservatives and GOP voters learn of this — they will really be turned off. If he does win the nomination, he will not get the base excited to come out and vote and will lose a general election. The bottom line — if he comes close to winning the nomination — he will definitely lose the general.

    Four, the increase of crime in Chicago Ridge has occurred under his leadership. How does he defend this?

    Fifth, Beavers is a supporter of Balderman. Regardless of the amount (rather large for a mayor of a small community), why would Beavers with a horrible track record in Chicago and Cook County support a GOPer in New Lenox? Could anyone under Balderman in the police department in Chicago Ridge be part of the Beaver’s Organization?

    Sixth, an earlier post wanted to know why would Beavers prop up Balderman? If you look into it, there is a major Beavers vs. Jackson rift. The Jackson organization beat out Beaver’s daughter for a aldermanic seat. This is Beaver’s payback. The third airport can become a “control” issue between Congressman Jackson and a Beavers should Balderman win. Control of a third airport would excite the unions and Beavers. Again, the GOP base will be turned off by this. Given the district, the mainstream voters will be turned off when they see the Beaver’s influence in the Balderman camp.

    If Balderman wins the nomination, the GOP will lose the election. My prediction is that is Jimmy Lee enters the race, the GOP has a better chance with his clean record and ability to raise money for his campaign and other GOP organizations who sorely need it to win in 2008.

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