Subscribe to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here     Contact Rich Miller
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here. Subscriptions are $350 per year. To advertise on the Capitol Fax Blog, please click here.
Poll: Obama way up, Huckabee surges here as well, Repubs pessimistic

Monday, Dec 17, 2007

* It’s no big news that Barack Obama is crushing Hillary Clinton in the Tribune’s new statewide poll of Illinois. It’s probably also no surprise that Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is surging here, because he seems to be surging just about everywhere.

So, let’s look at some of the other poll questions, which, upon reflection, probably aren’t a huge surprise, either. For instance…

Reflecting the optimism of Democrats heading into the election year, 82 percent said they viewed the party’s chances of retaking the White House after eight years as very good to excellent. Republicans were much more pessimistic. Among GOP voters, only 45 percent viewed their chances of holding onto the presidency as very good to excellent.

* GOP voters are also pessimistic about their own candidates…

Only 20 percent of Republicans said they were “very satisfied” with their field of candidates, compared with 45 percent of Democrats.

* And this result shows just how difficult it will be for a Republican to win in November…

Despite months of national polls showing low ratings for President Bush, particularly over the issues of the progress of the Iraq War and the state of the economy, 63 percent of Illinois Republicans approve of the job he is doing. At least 70 percent of Huckabee, Romney and Thompson voters give Bush high approval ratings, while the president receives the highest disapproval rating — 38 percent — from supporters of McCain, the man Bush defeated in the race for the Republican nomination nearly eight years ago.

It’s gonna be tough for the Republican nominee to distance himself from the hugely unpopular incumbent and still hold the base, which still likes the man.

* The survey found Obama leading among Democrats with 50 percent, to 25 percent for Clinton and 7 percent for Edwards. There was this, however…

When Democratic voters were asked, regardless of their personal choice for president, which candidate would have the best chance of defeating a Republican next November, 39 percent said Clinton and 37 percent said Obama. Among those believing the New York senator and former first lady would win out were a quarter of those who said they are backing Obama. In contrast, only 7 percent of those backing Clinton said they thought Obama was the most electable Democrat.

* Among Republicans…

The survey of 500 likely Republican voters, who were polled Dec. 9 to 13, found Giuliani with the support of 23 percent, Huckabee with 21 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 14 percent, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona with 12 percent and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee with 11 percent. The poll also found U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 3 percent and U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado with 1 percent. Other candidates had 1 percent backing while 14 percent of those polled were undecided.

* More national stuff, compiled by Paul…

* Plenty of opportunity in state GOP

* Word on the Street: State Rep. Aaron Schock won’t permit his two congressional primary opponents to videotape him at any forums or debates. Well, it’s not that he’s not allowing it, he just won’t attend events if taping is allowed. So the net result is the same.

* Shimkus backs Schock’s bid for Congress

- posted by Rich Miller


31 Comments
  1. - Anonymous45 - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:19 am:

    yesss! experience trumps vision folks


  2. - PhilCollins - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:26 am:

    The poll is great news for Huckabee. The poll
    proves that many IL Republicans are learning about Huckabee and deciding that he’s the best candidate. I’m running for convention delegate, for him, in the 10th District.


  3. - Sacks Romana - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:29 am:

    If Schock’s primary opponents have any sense at all they’ll make sure that anyone, somehow is taping all their forums and debates. They’ll either shut him out or force him to go back on his silly ultimatum.


  4. - Technophobe - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:30 am:

    “Well, it’s not that he’s not allowing it, he just won’t attend events if taping is allowed. So the net result is the same.”

    This seems like a reasonable way to win a Congressional campaign in the 21st Century. What a moron. So if some campaign lackey shows up at Schock’s own event with a camera, Schock is just going to leave? This has to be a misunderstanding. That can’t actually be a successful politician’s strategy in this day and age.

    Schock needs to take notice of what happened to Clinton’s primary campaign where she is trying to run as the incumbent. This has ‘FAIL’ written all over it.


  5. - Boone Logan Square - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:42 am:

    Is Aaron Schock that much of a coward? Really?


  6. - Rob_N - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:07 am:

    Rick Pearson wrote in the Trib, “When Democratic voters were asked, regardless of their personal choice for president, which candidate would have the best chance of defeating a Republican next November, 39 percent said Clinton and 37 percent said Obama.”

    Actually, they were statistically tied which makes perfect sense given the Dems’ apparent collective feeling both could likely win in November. If there is a statistical difference it may stem from HRC’s name recognition and knowledge of her bio as First Lady and Senator.

    I’m somewhat surprised Pearson chose to spin it this way given the MOE (it was about 4 or 4.5%).

    Take the same poll tomorrow and those numbers may be flipped.


  7. - Crimefighter - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:30 am:

    What exactly is causing Republicans to back Huckabee all of a sudden? What’s his defining issue? I don’t see it. And I haven’t found THE Reagan-like candidate in the field yet.

    Schock - He’s barring any debates being televised too? Yep, I’m NOT voting for him.


  8. - Skeeter - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:39 am:

    Hey Phil, Nice choice.
    By the way, NIE stands for “National Intelligence Estimate.” You may want to pass that info up within the campaign.
    The shocker for me on this is that McCain is down with Thompson. Nationwide he’s trending up but apparently not in Illinois. I thought his views were a good fit for Illinois.
    The Schock thing isn’t shocking. He’s clearly not ready for prime time. He is the GOP version of Blago. We all know Schock is going to end up screwing up some office badly. As such, I’m glad he wants to be in Congress where’s he’s 1 of 435, rather than gov. or something where he can do some real damage.


  9. - JonShibleyFan - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:48 am:

    But Skeeter, those numbers would only be so comforting were the other 434 sane, rational and mature. Alas…


  10. - Johnny USA - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:59 am:

    Boy, Obama sure is being built up in Iowa.

    Anything other than a crushing defeating of her at Obama’s hands is going to throw Obama on the defensive.


  11. - Snidely Whiplash - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:38 pm:

    Obama will take 75% of the D primary vote in Illinois (at least). Don’t trust polls. McCain would do much better here if he were to propose a timed, phased withdrawal from Iraq. His views on the war are well-intentioned; he’s a product of his experiences in Vietnam. But, anything less than full withdrawal within a year won’t go over well here. Giuliani will take Illinois with at least 40%, I’d say. But remember, there’s still plenty of time for the mud to be slung, and we don’t yet know whom it’ll stick to.


  12. - Crimefighter - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:38 pm:

    Hillary is self-destructing in Iowa…she’s not answering questions then gets mad when she’s told she’s not wanting to answer questions on camera.


  13. - Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:42 pm:

    I think Dems will experience some remorse with Obama next spring should he look like he’s getting the nomination.

    A combination of dirt from the Rezko trial and gaffs from him suggesting he may not be ready for the job reflected in declining polls vs a McCain/Lieberman, or Giuliani/Huckabee, or Romney.

    Then there will be heck in the party trying to switch him for Gore.


  14. - anon38 - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:45 pm:

    Johnny USA I agree and I think Mrs. Obama would like a close win by Barack. She looks/acts like she’s ready to go back to Hyde Park anytime now.
    Anyhow as it is said, Presidential campaigning is a marathon, not a sprint.


  15. - Skeeter - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:49 pm:

    Get real, Baar.
    What “gaffe” of Sen. Obama has come close the following:
    1. Huckabee: Admitted that he hadn’t heard of the Iran NIE and was convinced that Iran was in fact still building nukes;
    2. Guiliani: Claimed that he spent more time at ground zero than many of the first responders when in fact his records showed that he spent more time either at, or traveling to and from, Yankees games than at ground zero. In addition, had NY pay for his security when he traveled to meet his mistress
    3. Romney: He’s been hunting less often than Rudy’s been married. He knows his solid right views very well, since he just came up with them lasty year.
    4. McCain, Tancredo, Paul: I don’t follow candidates who can’t poll 20% in any state so I can’t comment much on them.
    Obama is Mt. Rushmore material compared to that group.


  16. - Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:21 pm:

    Carl Davidson, who organized that 2002 anti-war ralley Obama spoke at, called him triangulator par excellence.

    He’s going to move right and want to sound tough. That’s why we’ve had the talk from him on Pakistan. And he’s really going to seem the triangulator.

    It’s a situation that invites gaffes and given Obama’s tendency towards nuance, it’s going to be a problem.

    If looks like he’ll be opposed by more experienced GOPers (and especially McCain), I think they’ll be a lot of buyer’s-remorse, so to speak, among Democrats.


  17. - Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:24 pm:

    The Davidson link if the previous doesn’t work,
    http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20070115/001422.html


  18. - Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:30 pm:

    …and SecState Rice could easily be #2 on a GOP ticket which would be an interesting line up against any combination of Dems.


  19. - Carl Nyberg - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:33 pm:

    The solution to avoid being caught saying something stupid on videotape is to not say anything stupid.

    Schock comes off as a spoiled control freak by making this demand.


  20. - JonShibleyFan - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:35 pm:

    Baar,

    Carl Davidson -and this is in no way intended as a slur on him- is much more in the Kucinich camp and much less like mainstream America or even Mainstream Democrats.

    A Giuliani/Huckabee ticket? I’m not sure I’ve lived a good enough life for the Lord to permit me to live to witness such a train wreck.

    And I suspect Johnny USA and anon who agreed with him are; a) Republicans or b) Clinton supporters.

    No one…NO ONE has predicted a landslide by anyone in IA, so why, all of the sudden, would you suggest Obama needs one unless you were, in your own small way, trying to build unmanageable expectations.


  21. - Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:37 pm:

    I have a fond memory of Eugene Sawyer answering the question of what did he learn from old-man Daley, after pausing for reflection, you never have to take back things you don’t say.

    Eugene Sawyer sort of an underrated Chicago Pol in my book.


  22. - Skeeter - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:37 pm:

    Baar,

    Initially, when you referenced “more experienced GOP”, who in the world were you talking about? None of that crew (other than McCain) has any experience, and McCain is polling under 15%.

    Further, Sec. of State Rice?

    She would be my first choice for the GOP. Of course, I admit that I would like to see the GOP lose.

    Let’s count her virtues:

    1. Prior to 9/11, didn’t think the “suicidal Islamic extremists taking flying lessons” memo was something her boss should bother with;

    2. Another architect of the well-planned efforts in Iraq;

    3. Part of the team that allowed Hamas to take control.

    Nice work, Ms. Rice. That’s the kind of experience that the GOP ticket needs.

    Just as Iraq starts to fade as an issue, Rice would do wonders to bring it to the front burner.


  23. - Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:48 pm:

    I don’t know if I’m projecting an Obama landslide. My mom, who puts great stock in Oprah though, thinks Oprah’s endorsement gives it to him.

    I think Edwards has to pull enough to make the outcome ambigous enough that Dems turn to Gore…

    … I’m expecting more buyers-remorse from Dems with Obama than an Obama landslide…


  24. - Bill Baar - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:58 pm:

    Just as Iraq starts to fade as an issue, Rice would do wonders to bring it to the front burner.

    The GOP will play Pelosi and Reid from last year endlessly.

    The Dems will, as Jon Meyers wrote in Roll Call,

    This presents a unique opportunity for Democrats. Having used the Iraq War to win over millions of Americans who were previously disposed to support the other side, they can now build on that momentum by turning to other issues to seal the deal with voters who remain on the fence.

    To borrow a phrase, it’s the economy, stupid…

    I’m betting American voters will be appalled at the having used the war… strategy, and 2008 sees another Republican administration.


  25. - Skeeter - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 2:07 pm:

    Good point Baar.

    Some guy from “Roll Call” said “used the war.”

    That beat the heck out of “For Rudy, a sentence includes a noun, verb, and 9/11″ or Huckabee and his lack of knowledge of NIEs or Romney having no foreign policy experience at all and no firm views on any issue at all or Rice having personally screwed up much of the war planning.

    Keep up that line of thought, Bill.


  26. - Golly Ggee Wilakers - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 2:25 pm:

    OBAMA is the most qualified candidate. Never in the history of the World has there been a candidate with as much experience and long record of accomplishment. Obama will cure cancer, heart disease, and will save the world.


  27. - Captain America - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 4:02 pm:

    I think the only major Democratic candidate who has any chance of losing is Hillary Clinton because of her high negatives. I want a landslide, so I prefer someone other than Clinton
    to carry our banner. The failure of the Republican saviour, Thompson,and the emergence of Huckabee suggest that Republicans have almost no chance of winning in 2008.

    Obama will be prove to be a Teflon candidate. No dirt thrown by Clinton surrogates and Republicans is going to stick to him, much to the frustration of Swiftboaters.

    If Obama wins the nomination, or if Gore emerges
    as a nominee as a result of political brokering, 2008 will be a realignment election. Democrats are unlikely to experience any buyers remorse after 8 years of Bush. The nation collectively will breathe a a sigh of relief on innauguration dat 2009, since Cheney-Bush will be unable to do any further damage to the country or the world.


  28. - gulag - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 4:10 pm:

    Don’t count Edwards out of anything. Success for Obama in Iowa may well drive a lot of Dems out of Hillary’s camp and to Edwards.


  29. - Rob_N - Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 4:12 pm:

    Bill Baar,

    The only buyers’ remorse will be that leftover from the 2004 Bush election when folks who were cajoled to voting GOP by their local precinct captains continue to realize the damage that has been done nationwide and vote to change it.

    The only thing that may disrupt that scenario is the Republicans and their partisan conservative allies (527s and the like) muddying the waters and hurling so much negativity that voters get disgruntled with the whole process and sit at home. Watch for Swiftboating on Steroids for the next year.

    PS: Despite repeated efforts by the Clinton campaign, New York Times, WaPo, David Yepsen in Iowa, etc. nothing is sticking to Obama. And the more ridiculous the mudslinging the less likely anything will ever stick.


  30. - Loop Lady - Tuesday, Dec 18, 07 @ 7:41 am:

    hey Rob N wait until the Rezko trial starts–maybe then something will stick to Saint Obama


  31. - Still thinkin' - Tuesday, Dec 18, 07 @ 7:52 am:

    I don’t agree with the Schock “no-tape or no-show” strategy. But I disagree more with the “I’m married and have two kids” strategy of the other repubs in that race. Congress is full of married middle or upper aged folks with two (or more kids) and they don’t seem to be getting it right most of the time either. Somebody needs a new strategy in that race!


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


ON THE BLOG TODAY...
* Will Buzz save us from drowning or just add more water into the tank?
* One man's pork...
* Question of the day
* Stop the lending?
* A look at the numbers
* Duckworth for LG?
* Morning Shorts
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
** Yesterday's blog posts

Search This Blog...

Search the 96th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 96th General Assembly By Keyword

Quick Links


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Polls

Archives
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress
 

  
  » First Look: Brothers in Arms II for the iPhone
  » Box.net upgrades iPhone app, announces new API
  » Global IP Solutions offers video-chat technology to app makers
  » Review: Uno for the iPhone
  » BlackBerry Application Suite For Windows Mobile Leaked

  » The Rotterdamn Collective [Featured Workspace]
  » The Map-as-Envelope Incorporates Directions in Your Snail Mail [Clever Uses]
  » Google Buzz Explained [Screenshot Tour]
  » Move the Users Directory in Windows 7 [How To]
  » Gadget and Gear Deals of the Day [Dealhacker]

» White Sox Un-Retire #11, Vizquel to wear Aparico's number with his ble..
» Vizquel to wear Aparicio's No. 11
» Hey, who wants to sit around and talk about 2005?
» South Side Sox 2010 Fantasy Baseball Challenge
» Boyer: Any buzz must translate to wins

 
     


  » Illinois universities jeopardized by slow state fu....
  » Illinois universities make plea for state money - ....
  » State universities make plea for state money - Dai....
  » Quinn: Lt. gov. hopefuls should speak up - Galesbu....
  » Illinois universities want money promised by state....
  » Ill. universities make plea for state money - News....
  » Lawmakers' expectations low for session - Southtow....
  » Regional changes could have altered primary electi....
  » Cohen move gives Democrats a rare do-over - State ....
  » Illinois Democrats scramble to find lieutenant gov....


  » Central Ill. schools, roads feel winter blast
  » Ill. universities make plea for state money
  » Young central Ill. alderman dies after surgery
  » Discrimination suit against Ill. college tossed
  » Man ordered imprisoned for running over man
  » Illinois Changing DNA Evidence Protocol
  » McDonald's same-store sales fall in U.S. in January, rise overall
  » US Gives $78.5M to Fight Carp
  » United Airlines sees January traffic rise
  » Dow closes below 10,000 points

  » Q Interactive CEO Wise departs for Detroit
  » Kirk, Giannoulias already hammering at each other
  » United fuels surge in airline stocks
  » Kraft closing Cadbury plant that was slated to shutter
  » Allstate opening Texas call center


  » Snow likely to make tonight's commute home worse
  » No one shot, no injuries in disturbance at funeral home
  » Man says he was asked to kill Peterson's ex-wife
  » Man charged with murder in Woodlawn shooting
  » Man burned at Hancock Center restaurant: cops
  » Fitness prize: Lifetime of free training
  » Suspect still in custody for gruesome Austin slaying
  » Toddler abandoned at fire house: cops
  » Hynes won't replace Cohen, but who will?
  » Chief's kin demands return of forest preserve land


  » 3 treated for health problems at South Side funeral home
  » Daley's son called back to active duty in Army
  » Mayor Daley's son called back to Army duty
  » Man charged in fatal Woodlawn shooting
  » 60 days in jail for figure in Stroger patronage scandal
  » Prosecutors: Peterson, Savio were fighting over $893,000
  » Worker injured in fire in John Hancock restaurant
  » Algonquin teen charged in slaying of family member
  » Public universities seek promised state funds
  » Local food execs sign on to Michelle Obama anti-obesity campaign


  » Chicago Card Shop Gets Super Bowl Boost
  » Snow to get Worse in Afternoon; Southwest Cancels all Flights
  » Who Does Quinn Want as His Running Mate?
  » More Bridge Worries for Northwest Indiana
  » CTA President Says He's Ready to Meet with Union Leaders
  » CTA Service Reductions Affect CPS Students
  » Inspectors Trash More Food at Shared Kitchen
  » Blue Monday for Some in Indiana
  » Quinn: No Money Deal for Cohen
  » Durbin Says Giannoulias Should Answer Questions About Family Bank Involvement

» Who will be Quinn's running mate?
» Universities want money they're owed
» Krishnamoorthi wants to be considered for role of Pat Quinn's running mate
» New law accidentally bars farmers from using ATVs
» Plummer not picking sides in GOP governor's race


  » Lawmakers pushing more on red-light cameras
  » Most of tonight's sporting events postponed
  » SJ-R.com's live snow cam
  » Latest weather-related closings, cancellations, early dismissals
  » Storm cancels flights at Chicago's airports
  » Southern Illinois digs out of latest snowstorm
  » Man attacks estranged wife
  » Food bank receives 4,000 pounds of pork
  » Woman punched
  » Drive collects hundreds of crutches, walkers for Haitians


  » Lawmaker introduces bill to keep Cubs training in Arizona
  » Discrimination suit against RLC tossed
  » Illinois universities make plea for state money
  » Southern Illinois digs out of latest snowstorm
  » Carbondale police seek information in armed robbery


» New Metra station 'keystone' to Wood Dale development
» Ex-Stroger patronage worker gets 60 days in battery case
» Defiant Iran accelerates nuclear program
» St. Hubert students arrive safely at home
» Wheaton taking aim to reduce coyote population


  » GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - February 9, 2010
  » Dems must pick new lt. gov candidate
  » GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - February 8, 2010
  » GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - February 7, 2010
  » GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - February 6, 2010

» Tax hike would fund sewer maintenance, flood ..
» Island Culture: Running with the Art Pack in ..
» Congressional panel prepares hearing on Asian..
» 8th House GOP losers vow to support Walsh - C..
» FTC probing CVS Caremark's prescription drug ..
» Duckworth and Quinn? Not Likely - NBC Chicago
» Why isn't Melissa Bean my old Rep on Jane's l..
» Riverport Railroad receives option to buy ind..
» Ill. gov might want to run from his running m..
» Questions still need answering on April 30 de..

» Manhattan Institute probes lobbying efforts o.....
» Mesothelioma will be discussed at asbestos aw.....
» Cohen withdraws over prostitute girlfriend - .....
» Congressional panel prepares hearing on Asian.....
» Flashback: Alexi Giannoulias' Broadway Bank L.....

» Can GOP Gain 51-Seat Majority in November? - .....
» The midterms: All the right moves - msnbc.com...
» Ill. gov might want to run from his running m.....
» Nation will watch Illinois races closely - Qu.....
» Column: I'll take the Senate seat for $500! -.....

    » Chicago's “Big Snow,” 2010
    » In Gov's Race, Christmas Goose not always Good for the Gander
    » Black is Back at Art Basel
    » Chicago's News Wars: Did the Scoop Get Scooped?
    » Chicago News Cooperative Debuts: Newspaper Wars are Back
    » Michael Scott, the ‘Problem Solver'
    » Let's Play ‘Republican Idol:' Women, Minorities Need Not Apply
    » Jim O'Shea Weighs in on Diversity Issue at CNC
    » Carol Adams Going to DuSable Museum
    » A Forum: On Chicago's Deadly Streets


Header Photos...
Wayne Bretl & UIS


Hosted by MCS