The Capitol Fax Blog » Some things to discuss while I take a nap

Some things to discuss while I take a nap

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2008

* Barack Obama and John McCain both won every single Illinois county.

* How does Democrat Bill Foster win the special election primary in the 14th Congressional District by 3,700 votes and then win the regular primary by only 327 votes?

* I’m of the opinion that the Democrats ought to just forget about putting anyone up against Aaron Schock after he won 71 percent in a three-way primary race. Am I wrong?

* Does Tony Peraica have a snowball’s chance against Anita Alvarez? Consider this: With almost all the votes totaled in the city and the county, Peraica won 130,622 votes running unopposed. Alvarez, who scored 26 percent in a six-way race, got 226,043.

* Did you see anything interesting in the Illinois exit polls?

That ought to keep you busy for a while.

- posted by Rich Miller

102 Comments

- CF Fan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 6:46 am:
I thought I saw that Hillary won White county.

- amy - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 6:52 am:
Peraica may pick up some people by playing the
ethnic card, but, no, he has no chance. But
there is a chance he will do some torch parade
thing because the man is nuts.

nice win for Alvarez, who kept it classy. Bet
Milan and his minions are in heart failure.

- Puzzled - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 7:07 am:
The dems could beat Schock with a centrist who understands business and foreign affairs. If what the three GOP candidates in that primary know about those two subjects were dynamite, you couldn’t blow your nose with it. Where the dems might get such a candidate, I don’t know.

- Stuck with Sen. CPA - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 7:11 am:
In the 14th, there was a fourth guy Joe Serra in the regular primary but not the special. He picked up the difference in those votes. More than 2,500 in Kane County alone.

- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 7:13 am:
According to the Sun-Times, Mcain lost a couple counties. Rock Island to Romney and Franklin to Huckabee.

- paddyrollingstone - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 7:34 am:
Good questions - obviously, Schock is a talented guy, but because of his tendency (at least recently) to say crazy things, the Ds should challenge him. As for Tony P, he has zero chance as one of the two most qualified people running for SA (Milan being the other one) is the nominee. He is DOA.

- winco - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 7:43 am:
Yeah, Barack and McCain did not win every county. It just looks that way if you glance at the results, because they put a check next to their names in every county, representing them as the state winner. But if you look at the numbers, there are several counties they lost.

- Diamond Dog - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 7:49 am:
Every single county? Someone needs to tell NYTIMES.com thier map is screwed up.

- Illinois Insider - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:01 am:
On the Bill foster John Laesch vote totals that it easy the Kane County Clerk is the most incompetent clerk in the country.
Laesch should push for a recount.

also Laesch did awesome considering the money spent by Foster and Foster’s endorsements. The kid deserves much credit.

- Bill Baar - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:02 am:
I don’t think Serra explains. Remember too there were republicans taking Democratic ballots to vote for Obama and then GOB ones to vote for Lauzen or more likely against Oberweis.

We had two codes in Kane County. One per ballot and the first code was the regular primary election. Novice voters or people just perplexed by the dial machine (old guys like me) could easily forget to punch in the second code for special ballot. It could explain the disparity in totals.

- just noticed - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:09 am:
It looks like 3 Romney delegates won: Denny Hastert in CD14, and Dan Rutherford and Dale Righter in CD15.

- Ghost - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:14 am:
Obama came close to Hillary in her States of CA, NY and MA where she had as much as a 30 point lead going into super duper tuesday. She owes the vast majority of her current delegate lead to superdelegates. If things keep trending this way Obama’s numbers are only going up and HRC are going down. I hatge to agree with Wolf Blitzer on anything, but it is definetly an exciting race to watch.

- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:15 am:
Perhaps more interesting locally in terms of the future is an assessemnt of state senate and house races and which of the factions–Blago or Madigan–came out ahead, where such battles took place. A forecast of a Lisa
vs. Blago primary race, if there is one.

Of course, if Obama wins the Presidency (and maybe
even if he doesn’t) Alexi could be a huge deterrent to a Lisa sweep, assuming Blago continues his downward spiral in public opinion.

- ZC - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:17 am:
I don’t see any scenario where Peraica beats Alvarez.

The Latino vote = the Catholic vote in Illinois? Obama wins Protestants, he wins white Protestants, but he splits Catholics with Hillary basically 50-50, and he narrowly loses white Catholics. And they were like a third of the electorate. Hillary’s bright spot here.

- ZC - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:18 am:
Considering what happened yesterday with the woman vote, which I think is the biggest single story of the night, I’d say Lisa is a far greater threat to Rod than Alexi.

- Tucker McElroy - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:24 am:
The full totals aren’t in, but as of right now according to the district by district totals in at the Sun-Times, Barack Obama is winning the 3rd congressional district by 10 votes, it’s that close. Hillary won the 4th (Gutierrez), 5th (Rahm) and the 13th (Biggert). The latino problem is a problem, even at home, and why did Bill Clinton go to southern Illinois when they did better up north than down south, other than to get on St. Louis tv.

The other thing that is remarkable, absolutely remarkable, is the African American vote in the state’s attorney race. The sole black candidate did not run strong in the black wards. Not all of the precincts have completely reported but he didn’t even break 50% in 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 15, 16, 17, 24, 28 and 37. These are wards that Roland Burris repeatedly got in the 90’s and even John Stroger got in the 70’s and 80’s. That is shocking to me. Even in Brookins own 21st ward right now he is only claiming 61%.

We’ve seen many elections where candidates claim that they are going to siphon off the AA vote and most pundits and analysts dismiss them as unrealistic because it never happens. Well here it happened, and largely without a high profile effort by one candidate or the other. It’s not like the non-Brookins vote in the AA wards went all to one candidate, Suffredin, Alvarez and even Tom Allen got in double digits in most of these wards.

I’ll pay good money, really good money, for someone who can explain what happened and why.

- Honest Abe - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:26 am:
Peraica faces a difficult up hill climb in November, but come on! There was almost no political action taking place on the Republican Primary ballot yesterday: apart from the foregone conclusion in the Presidential nomination race there were virtually no contested races and very few candidates whatsoever on the GOP ballots in Chicago and suburban Cook. How many voters were going to flock to the polls to support an unopposed candidate for nomination?

- anon - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:29 am:
Leasch ran an outstanding campaign. With the Clerk being so bad, he should push for a recount.

- A 9th CD Democrat - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:35 am:
One of the biggest losers of the night is Forrest Claypool. Every candidate he endorsed - Jay Deratany, Mark Pera, Dean Maragos, Ed Smith, Eddie Winters in the 10th HD, John Moynihan in the 56th HD and Kenny Johnson in the 26th HD lost and most of them lost badly. Even his candidate for the 8th Judicial Subcircuit got creamed badly. With coattails like that, I think his aspirations for Cook County Board President went up in smoke last night.

- Observer - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:38 am:
Obama lost like 7 downstate (southern Illinois) counties, I believe:

Hardin 54% 33% 11% 1%
Calhoun 53% 39% 7% 1%
Pope 53% 38% 7% 1%
Gallatin52% 40% 7% 0%
Johnson 52% 39% 7% 0%
Massac 51% 42% 6% 0%
Perry 50% 44% 5% 0%

Hilary’s numbers first. I may be wrong.

Schock can be beat if Colleen Burns is the candidate.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:42 am:
Bill Baar-

Would Laesch’s Democratic supporters jeopardize his chances in the Special by pulling a Republican ballot? Your crossover theory makes no sense, and I don’t buy it. If there was any crossover, it didn’t seem to help Lauzen as he lost by a good margin in both the regular (14%)and special (12%), which was very surprising to me.

Your theory of voter confusion is much more plausible. Maybe Bill Foster’s supporters were able to figure out the special ballot better than Laesch’s supporters.

- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:44 am:
I don’t see Peraica succeeding against Alvarez for a numbenr of reasons. 1. She is obviously well qualified for the position. Peraica’s main thrust against Stroger was that Peraica was more qualified and had better experience for the job. He can’t claim that here. 2. If women in such large numbers will turn out for primaries, you’d better believe they’ll turn out in the general. 3. Peraica does not have the pleasant disposition of a Jack O’Malley. 4. The GOP is moribund in vast swaths of Cook county. When Jack O was successful, there was still a GOP in the Cook suburbs, now there is a GOP only in the northwest Cook suburbs.

- RMW Stanford - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:47 am:
Schock will be hard if not impossible to beat in the General Election, but the Dems should probably still run a candidate in the off chance that Schock really screws up.

- chiatty - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:51 am:
T McElroy:

I think the SA race totals prove that the black vote is no longer blindly monolithic. THe conventional wisdom was that the whites would carve up the white vote and the blacks would vote for Brookins in huge percentages, allowing him to slide in the side door with 30% of the vote.

This generally accepted but patronizing logic failed to produce for Brookins, probably because Jesse Jackson Jr. delivered for Suffredin and because the black community rightly feels burned by voting in that idiot Todd Stroger. Todd got in because the community was “told” to vote for him. Brookins’ collossal failure in this election might be a harbinger for a more informed and potentially less monolithic black electorate. That might not be good for the power brokers, but it would be welcome news for democracy in Chicago.

- Darkhorse - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:53 am:
As you can see below, I got this one almost exactly right when I predicted it Monday. So before I go play the lotto, here is my prediction for November:

Peraica has no chance at beating Anita. He cannot run on the political argument that he is a reformer and will watch the budget. He was praying that Brookins even Larry or Allen won. His argument may have worked with them. Not with Anita. She wins easily 63-37.

Darkhorse - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 12:47 pm:

State’s Attorney race is wide open. But, Alvarez will get womens vote and appears to have some momentum. With that said, here is my prediction.

Alvarez will pull off a Giant type of upset.

Alvarez- 26%
Allen- 23%
Larry- 22%
Brookins 21%
Milan 6%
Brewer 2%

- Bill Baar - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:00 am:
Would Laesch’s Democratic supporters jeopardize his chances in the Special by pulling a Republican ballot?

I know voters who know Obama, and know Oberweis.

They didn’t have a clue who Laesch or Foster or Lauzen were…

I’d try and explain those three, and then explain the two ballots…. they’d often glazed over before I could finish.

…but I don’t think the ones I talked to were all that unrepresentative.

Oberweis is like Clinton, a candidate with high negatives. He’s got a lot of work ahead of him.

Foster’s a poor campaigner in my opinion. I’ve watched him in action.

All-in-all, a very disappointing race between millionaires.

Elgin used to have a active Socialist Party a hundred years ago. I wish they would return.

- OneManBlog - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:02 am:
As for the difference, we did see some take a democratic ballot in the general primary and take a GOP in the special.

Also in some places it appears they were not ‘pushing’ the special so that may be the reason for a bit of an undervote.

Before you get on Cunningham’s case you may want to take a look at the issues they had in Aurora (different authority)

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/bea
connews/news/779360,2_1_AU06_POLLS_S1
.article

- Anon - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:04 am:
Here’s something to talk about. Dan Hynes will never be governor. For those African Americans who dont remember that Danny’s daddy opposed Harold Washington when he won the race for Mayor in 1983, they will definately remember that Danny supported a white man against an African American woman to replace Schock in Peoria.

Danny should’ve stayed out of that race, or he should’ve backed Jehan. I’m confident that if Danny ever tried to run for anything other than Comptroller, African Americans will not vote for him.

You’re a good Comptroller, Danny. Settle in — you’re going to be there for awhile.

- Bill Baar - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:07 am:
The problem with the ballots was voters didn’t understand the need to enter the second code.

The folks at my station did their best to explain, but it was hard.

Our voting machines require a weird kind of hand-eye-brain cooridination too. The temptation is to touch the screen but you have to use the dials instead. And then your fumbling with palm cards for the names of people down the ballot, etc…

People just forgot to enter that second code for the second ballot.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:15 am:
And any D crossovers in the Special might have gone both ways, some voting for Oberweis and some voting for Lauzen, for whatever reason (more beatable in the fall, lesser of 2 evils, etc.) The undervote in the special does not equal the winning gap of Oberweis vs. Lauzen in the special vs. the regular primary.

- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:18 am:
In the presidential races, it appears no one excited the conservative base. I can see why.

- Fan of the Game - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:19 am:
Forgot to put my screen name up for that last comment. Must be campaign fatigue.

- Snidely Whiplash - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:19 am:
I figured Alvarez for fourth behind Brookins, Allen & Suffredin. Wow, the female vote came through for her, for sure. It shouldn’t be much of a race for her in the general against Peraica.

Peraica campaigns on his opponent’s baggage. If Alvarez has any, it sure didn’t surface during a pretty negative Dem primary. Strike one. Peraica needed to go up against an AA candidate with a lot of baggage (like Brookins)to launch a negative campaign with the hope that racial politics would also come into play. Alvarez is not only Hispanic, but a female … now gender voting plays a role, and she wins that one. Strike two. Peraica needed to play off against a someone entrenched in the local Dem political establishment in order to present himself as the only hope for reform. Alvarez didn’t have much support from that, and doesn’t seem to have any major political experience. Strike three, he’s out.

- OneManBlog - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:21 am:
Bill B, does point out one big difference. In Aurora and most of the other areas beside Kane I think the primary voting method is a paper ballot (fill in the blank). So you got two different pieces of paper (at least) one for the general primary and one for the special. So it was rather obvious.

In the county, it’s all machine so it can be a little less intuitive. I would be interesting to see what the undervote was in Kane vs. Kendall.

- Skeeter - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:27 am:
Peraica is going to have to claim that the State’s Attorney’s office is corrupt top to bottom and that only he will clean it up.

That might well work for another GOP candidate, but I think the general perception of Peraica is “creepy” rather than “clean” or “competent.” Peraica just does not have a personality that people would trust.

Alvarez is going to win by 30. In a time of “change”, people are going to vote for “no change” when it comes to SA in Cook County.

- paddyrollingstone - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:39 am:
well done Darkhorse. although I suggested Alvarez as a good bet way back when - I didn’t think she had a snowball’s chance. wow was Brookins a bad candidate!

- Lincoln Square bum - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:40 am:
9th CD Dem at 8:35 said every candidate endorsed by Claypool lost. Not true. Claypool endorsed Diana Kenworthy in the 10th Subcircuit Morrissey vacancy and she won. Narrowly, but she won.

- Shallow Pharnyx - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:41 am:
Please Dems put a candidate on the ballot against Schock. He needs to be stopped.

- Isbell - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:42 am:
It’s a shame Barack Obama cannot even win every county in his state, maybe because he spends more time campaigning across every other state instead of representing us here in the deep south of Illinois. Mr. Senator, WE are Illinoisans too.

- Anon III - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:42 am:
Hold on sports fans, the general election is a full nine months away.

- True Observer - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:48 am:
“As you can see below, I got this one almost exactly right when I predicted it Monday.”

The broken clock on the landing is correct twice a day.

- jerry 101 - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 9:51 am:
Brookins paid the price for being anti-big box. He wasn’t going to win after effectively voting against a raise for hundreds of thousands of Chicagoans.

I was surprised by the Alvarez win, though. But I didn’t think for a second that Brookins would win.

As far as Schock goes, the Dems absolutely need to run against him. Contest every district. If Schock continues to run his mouth, there’s a good chance he’ll find a way to alienate his entire district. The kid lacks common sense.

Not entirely Illinois centric, but Obama won more total votes in New York than Hillary won in Illinois (Obama - 696,000 in NY, Clinton 643,000 in IL). Obama also won more votes in Illinois than Hillary won in New York (Obama - 1,256,000 in IL vs Clinton with 1,001,000 in NY).

Congratulations to my state for getting out there and voting!

New York has 7 million more people, roughly, than Illinois has.

Turnout in Illinois rocked.

- Joe in the Know - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:04 am:
Without a doubt, the biggest loser who wasn’t on the ballot was Jim Houlihan. His hand-picked candidate for Board of Review was smoked by Joe Berrios. Wow, that $305,000 he sunk into the Deratany race must smart, and the thousands he gave Suffredin was a waste, too. Here is a prediction, Houlihan doesn’t run for re-election to Assessor and his attempts to appoint his successor, vis a vis Tom Hynes and Houlihan’s appointment, just won’t fly. Houlihan has burned so many bridges, he ought to be looking for a life raft.

- from the collars - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:07 am:
Laesch race: Special election…I was there listening over and over to election judges trained by Cunningham’s office to “not spoil ballots” so telling voters, “You are not obligated to vote in the special election.”

Recount it will be, and John made a promise to keep fighting until the troops come home. Not only John, but his beautiful wife Jen are in it for the long haul.

- Isbell - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:09 am:
In NY,
In ONLY 4 counties did Obama come within 5 points of Hillary. He won 1 county be a 1,000 votes or so.

In IL,
–In Bond County, Hillary lost by 5 votes. 48-47% Obama.
–In Calhoun County, Hillary swept 53-39%.
–In Clark County, Hillary lost by 5 votes. 46 to 46%.
–In Clay County, Obama won by 3%.
–In Clinton County, Obama won by 4%.
–In Fayette County, Obama won 48-46%
–In Franklin County, Hillary won 49-40%
–In Gallatin County, Hillary won 52-40%
–In Hamilton County, Hillary won 47-39%
–In Hardin County, Hillary won 54-33%
–In Jefferson County, Hillary won 46-43%
–In Jersey County, Obama won 48-47%.
–In Johnson County, Hillary won 52-39%.
–In Lawrence County, Hillary won 48-45%.
–In Marion County, Obama won 48-46%.
–In Massac County, Hillary won 51-42%.
–In Monroe County, Obama won 49-47%.
–In Montgomery County, Obama won 49-46%.
–In Perry County, Hillary won 50-44%.
–In Pope, Hillary won 53-48%
–In Saline, Hillary won 47-42%.
–In Union, Hillary won 47-38%.
–In Washington, Obama won 48-47%.
–In Wayne, Obama won 47-45%.
–In White, Hillary won by 8 votes, 46-46%
–In Williamson, Obama won by 32 votes, 47-47%

I think Southern Illinois sent a pretty strong message to Barack Obama, I’m guessing he won’t hear it though.

- He makes Ryan Look like a Saint - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:11 am:
Did anyone else notice last night that the AP called Missouri for HRC BEFORE St. Louis city and county was even close to being competed? They were both a landslide for Obama.

I was shocked by the margin of victory Schrock won by, but don’t count out the Callahan family. They will bring in some big hitters.

- Been There - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:13 am:
Tucker. I was as surprised as anyone with Alvarez’s win. I had her coming in 4th and Brookins winning. And I also was shocked at Brookins low numbers in the black wards. The main thing Alvarez did that Brookins did not was to be on TV. Her commercials were good and he had none (he was on the radio though). I didn’t factor in her family pumping in some cash for her to get on TV. She played both the tough prosecutor and the Mom. I was falling for it. All of us who were worried about the nightmare match-up of Perica vs Brookins, that is now not going to happen, end up with a great consolation prize in Alvarez.

- Bill - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:22 am:
Hey Isbell,
No one cares about the “deep south”. Instead of giving percentages why not state the number of votes of the number of delegates? That would show how really irrelavent you are. The only reason Bubba was in Southern Illinois was to get on St. Louis TV. The civil war is over and you were all yankees anyway. Grow up.

- Been There - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:28 am:
Another interesting thing about Alvarez’s win was the votes she received in Madigan’s, John Daley’s and Ed Burke’s wards. She won all three. In fact, Madigan and Burke both carries her with 47% of the vote. And Madigan also supplied her with more votes than any other ward in the city.

- HappyToaster - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:29 am:
Serra voters broke for Foster but the undercount is consistent across Kane, DuPage and Aurora.

Some combination of top of the ticket voters who pulled a GOP ballot in the special or didn’t care enough to vote it. Then add forgot about the second ballot or wasn’t informed by the judges.

Peraica? No. Her suburban vote total alone came within 600 votes of Tony.

- Isbell - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:32 am:
“Bubba” was in the StL area, not southern Illinois. I was just point out the fact that Obama barely touched Clinton in NY, but yet she won several throughout Illinois. I think it really says a lot. I didn’t see one Obama sign in the area (no hillary one’s either though).

- Honest Abe - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:32 am:
Ralph Capparelli and Berny Stone both are out as ward committemen. The race in the 50th Ward got some attention, but the 41st Ward was almost completely below the radar.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:35 am:
Bill Baar and OneMan-

Here’s something for you to chew on.

In city of Aurora and Kendall county, there was actually an OVERVOTE of the Special vs. the Regular Primary in the R race. There was a rather large UNDERVOTE in Kane County.

KANE REGULAR:

Oberweis 21971
Lauzen 17051
Dilger 911

KANE SPECIAL:

Oberweis 19904
Lauzen 16540

UNDERVOTE - 3489

AURORA REGULAR:

Oberweis 2512
Lauzen 3122
Dilger 99

AURORA SPECIAL:

Oberweis 2634
Lauzen 3497

OVERVOTE - 398

KENDALL REGULAR:

Oberweis 5930
Lauzen 5028
Dilger 217

KENDALL SPECIAL:

Oberweis 6290
Lauzen 5403

OVERVOTE - 518

- Joe in the Know - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:38 am:
Isbell: What was that “message” those counties sent to Barack? Let’s see how those exact counties stack up against the PRIMARY for US Senate in 2004, not the General against that tool, Alan Keyes.

- True Observer - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:41 am:
Alvarez-

It boils down to whether blacks take it out on the highest profile hispanic on the ballot because they dissed Obama?

Blacks may also show remorse for having voted against Peraica and in favor of Stroger now that they have lived to regret it.

- Joe in the Know - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:48 am:
True Observer:

With all due respect, you’re nuts.

- hal - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 10:56 am:
Madigan, Burke and Daley did nothing for Alvarez. She won those wards because they have growing Hispanic populations and because a lot of white women voted for her.

All three of them will probably try to take credit, though. Don’t fall for they’re b.s. Anita.

- OneManBlog - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:00 am:
Six Deg…

Yeah, we had once pct in particular where the over vote (took a Dem regular primary and a GOP special) was rather high. Most places it was just a few and from what I heard it was almost always D vs. R. But enough that we could have been that much higher, not surprising. In part the dems had a interesting judge race in most of the city, so I suspect that was part of it. There was more than one home with a Democratic judge sign and a Lauzen or Oberweis sign as well.

I don’t know in the county if it was just a switch the other way, machine issues or what it was. It will be interesting to see the canvas. I would say the Aurora canvas would be interesting but they can’t produce it electronically so you get literally almost a ream of paper when you ask for it.

- Vole - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:01 am:
Dem v. Schock: If you accept the idea that the 18th will be conceded forever to Republicans, that the gerrymandering system is acceptable, that the Democratic party has no better visions for the district, that two party democracy does not work here, that a choice among one establishment Republican candidate and two weak candidates represents any choice at all, then yeah, Democrats should just throw in the towel. Otherwise, Dems, give this young ideologue a good run and send him back to college for a couple more years.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:08 am:
Vole-

It doesn’t help that the celebrity D candidate backed out of the race. Woud’ve been interesting if he had shown more interest and hung in.

- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:16 am:
Come on, Bill. People in Southern Illinois have their own problems and issues. You can’t ignore an entire region, although I think Durbin and Obama both do a lot for Southern Illinois.

At this point, I truly believe Schock is unbeatable. He could even be a lifer if the chips all fall in place. Who are the Dems going to put up? Callahan would still lose 60-40.

Peraica loses badly. I can smell that one all the way down here in Springfield.

- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:18 am:
Two ladies surprised me last night, (election-wise).

Alvarez and Clinton.

There is real reason to recognize the political pull female candidates can have on voters when the male opposition blathers aimlessly towards one another when three or more candidates participate. Alvarez benefitted by having opponents that spent more time discussing their manly attributes more than their relevance in regards to Chicago. Considering the office being sought, talking tough usually wins the race, but Alvarez’s opponents ended up lumping themselves together and highlighting her positives. This isn’t the first time either. Mosely-Braun was the winner when Dixon and Hofeld smeared one another in 1992, remember?

Clinton also surprised me. For the past two weeks it was ‘Obama surge’, ‘Camelot annointment’, ‘Kennedy passing The Torch’, ‘Obama cross-over appeal!’ and other breathless and biased media coverage pronouncing the RETURN OF THE MESSIAH! Chris Matthews bathed Barak twice a day with his tongue on MSNBC and NBC. It took Heath Ledger’s celebrity overdose death to knock the Obama celebrity tour off the front page during this time.

Clinton prevailed and did quite well. While Obama continues to show strength in caucuses, (if we switched to caucuses in the General, he’d win handily), Clinton won the important states, (sorry North Dakota and Idaho, I still love ya!). While The Obamaloosah lovefest suggested a nationwide surge to victory, Clinton still won in California and tied in Missouri, where Obamaniacs within the media happily nailed coffins to bury her and Bill in.

Women win elections. Last night proved this repeatedly. Their male opponents and advisers have yet figured out how to use traditional male braggadoccio yet not appear offensive on the campaign trail. Women evoke empathy, which creates support for their candidacy. Obama has done an admirable job running against The First Woman Candidate, but he is getting hurt when his subordinates fall into comfortable sexist politispeak, just as her subordinates have damanged her candidacy with remarks considered racist. Both sides need to recognize the ground-breaking candidacies of each and explore new ways to appeal to voters.

Time seems to be on Obama’s side IF nothing changes, which is unlikely. The trajectory he has been riding has been a political abberation. Whether he can continue with it whereby defeating her is yet to be seen.

Alvarez and Clinton - ‘da winnahs’!

- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:25 am:
Lauzen’s defeat and Hatcher’s win in Kendall/Kane area show a definite change in voter preference. I would say the ultra right wings days are numbered and the moderates are taking over in this fast growing suburban area.

- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:29 am:
OH and Bill -
Enough with the ‘delegate count’. The way the Democratic Party runs their primaries reminds me of Pee-Wee Soccer Leagues giving trophies to every team. Your party focuses on ‘being fair’ to the point of pointlessness. Last night Clinton WON, but to a Democrat, both are winners, right?

So, in your dream world, Obama and Clinton are tied after last night. In the real world, big states like California, New York, New Jersey, Tennessee trump Utah, Idaho, either Dakota, and even lonely Illinois’ support of their senator.

You couldn’t have asked for more wind at Obama’s back - Kennedy and half the news media were blowing as hard as they could since Iowa, yet Barak can only point to wins in ‘red states’ that wouldn’t support a Democrat in the General, and won’t support a Democrat in November. Or do you really think Idaho and Utah are in play?

But such is the hype and hope that makes up the entire Obama candidacy anyway, and with your exerience hyping Blagojevich, you are used to a lack of oxygen.

- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:35 am:
VM, the game is played by the rules on the ground, not the rules in your particular head.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:38 am:
Anon-

And don’t forget Karen McConnaughay’s convincing win as Kane Chairwoman. But I would hardly characterize Lauzen’s defeat by Oberweis as a defeat for the ultra right wing. Other than a few minor sticking points, they were pretty similar on the issues, so it became a personality slugfest.

With his win (finally), Oberweis is now officially “Milk Stud” instead of “Milk Dud”

Milk Stud probably has a good chance in the special and a lesser but still good chance in November. The Obamawave caught many independents pulling a D ballot in this election (including me, although I don’t live in the 14th), which won’t be there for the Special Election on March 8. Best hope for the D’s in the 14th in november would be an Obama atop the ticket, which is a 50/50 proposition at best right now.

- chiatty - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:40 am:
All of us better get on bended knee and salute Darkhorse who predicted the State’s Attorney race quite expertly. Very Savvy Indeed!

- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:40 am:
The Democrats way of apportioning delegates is so that the party arrives at consensus, not so that a leader is quickly selected, at least that was the design intent. This is the first time I remember the design intent actually working out that way!

And what is it with southern IL permanent chip on their shoulder? The IL congressional delegation makes sure you guys get your share of the pork and when it comes to state funds, you guys get more than you pay in, what the heck do you want, permanent obeisance? Over half the state lives north of I80, and southern IL has lost population faster than any other region of the state.

- OneManBlog - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:53 am:
But Rich the rules in my head are so much more fun!

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 11:53 am:
Cermak-

It’s best they shut up and accept the pablum dribbled their way from up north, otherwise they’ll get another seat taken away in the next reapportionment as happened last time. IL is destined to lose another seat after 2010.

Even as NE IL is growing, SoIL is losing, and the Sun Belt continues to outrun the Rust Belt.

- True Observer - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 12:00 pm:
A sunny Saturday or culd be rainy.

March 8 has arrived.

You are a Laesch supporter who thinks that your candidate was cheated out of the nomination.

Do you take time out of your planned day to make a special trip to a hard to know polling place to pull the lever for Foster? After all, he ran against Hastert when he was Speaker when no one else would.

Nah, forget it.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 12:04 pm:
“That’s Congressman Milk Stud, sir!”

- RMW Stanford - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 12:08 pm:
Vole,
It not so much a matter of conceding the 18th district forever, but whether or not the Democrats want to put resources that could be used elsewhere into a race that they have little or no chance of winning.
If I was the RNC I would be fairly happy the way the race is shaping up nationwide so far, the Republican race is pretty much a done deal at this point and it look like the Democrat side will drag on maybe into the summer or even the convention. I still think the smart money is on HRC to pull it out in the end.

- Bill Baar - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 12:14 pm:
I noted Kay Hatcher’s win. I’m guessing the key there is the womens vote more so than moderate vs conservative.

Somewhere on drudge or real clear politics today is an article on single working moms. I think there is a key in there.

Look at some of these mailers of big, hulking middle aged guys, and hand it your female friends or family members for their thoughts.

- Mad as Hell - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 12:18 pm:
I think the real story is all of the losers last night.

Claypool, Houlihan, and Schillerstrom in DuPage. Their candidates really took it on the chin. Bill Beavers takes another body blow from the Jacksons and loses his committeman’s spot.

I think the biggest loser may turn out to be Peraica. He was counting on running against Brookins. Now, he faces Alvarez who will CRUSH him in the general election. Two years from now, he loses his Board seat as does Beavers.

Oh, and to Hal who said that Daley had no hand in the Alvreez victory, think again. Did you see who was on the stage with Alvarez during her victory speech? Her family, Pat Quinn, and most significantly Paul O’Grady, the brother of Daley’s former chief of staff Sheila O’Grady! Don’t tell me Daley didn’t have a hand in this.

- True Observer - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 12:29 pm:
“Democratic congressional hopeful John Laesch polled county clerks throughout the 14th Congressional District Wednesday looking for provisional and uncounted ballots that could make him the winner of Tuesday’s primary.”

This will not help in having Laesch supporters go to the polls on March 8 to vote for Foster in the Spcial.

- A 9th CD Democrat - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 12:33 pm:
Lincoln Square Bum at 9:40 a.m. is correct - the only one of Forrest’s endorsed candidates who won is Diana Kenworthy who won a judicial subcircuit race - pretty lame from my viewpoint.

And Joe in the Know at 10:04 a.m. is right - Houlihan joins Claypool as a big, big loser last night - just think what a difference they could have made for Suffredin had they focused all their efforts and money on the SA race instead of a race against Berrios that never had any chance of success

- Darkhorse - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 1:00 pm:
Thanks Chiatty. Like I said, I better go play the lotto now!

- chiatty - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 1:32 pm:
I guess you could call Claypool a loser yesterday, but it’s hard to fault him for trying to help out a friend. The more puzzling thing is trying to figure out why Suffredin (at 6′4″ a BIG GUY) thought that acting and sounding like a tough prosecutor at the same time that you trumpet the support of a liberal weenie like Claypool was a solid strategy to get elected State’s Attorney.

Bottom line: the voters almost got it right; they elected a prosecutor, not a politician. The politicians were in it for a power play, pure and simple. The voters just voted in the wrong prosecutor. Alvarez has done just about next to nothing in her 20 years in the office, other than winning the Girl X case. She is an appealing figure in her commercials, but people in the know will tell you that she disappeared when the heat was on and didn’t really get much accomplished as chief deputy.

That said, she’ll be much better than Tom Allen, not that that’s much of a standard.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 1:53 pm:
Look at some of these mailers of big, hulking middle aged guys, and hand it your female friends or family members for their thoughts.

My advice for big, hulking, middle age white candidates is that they are photographed with a big smile, a bouquet of flowers, and a box of chocolates when they do those flyer photo shoots.

*Ducks to avoid flying object*

Seriously, you want to appear like the guy who works next to the single working mom at the Kroger, not like the landlord who’s handing her the 30 day eviction notice.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 1:55 pm:
True Observer-

Between the Laeschies who won’t show up at the polls, and the Lauzies that won’t show up at the polls, it might be a draw.

- Captain America - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 1:56 pm:
Peraica is totally toast. If he isn’t weeping and ganshing his teeth, he should be. The Democratic Party will unite behind Anita Alvarez. I’d say Peraica was the biggest loser. I’m happy about her victory even though my first choice, Suffredin, lost.

I’m very pleased that Brookins ran fourth and that the organization candidate, Allan lost. I think the Defender endorsement of Tommy Brewer sent a strong signal to the African-American, that Brookins did not deserve their support b3ecause of his history of multiple civil legal problems.

I agree that Jim Houlihan was the biggest Democratic loser - the Democratic organization really delivered for Berrios and Moore. Houlihan can expect to be challenged next time he’s up for reelection. I met a youg woman who was scammed by some Democratic organization trying to help Barrios. She wanted to help Obama, but was invited to come to a “North side Obama” headquarters” around Braodway and Hood. They handed her Obama- Barrios pass pieces. She didn’t even knoa who Barrios was - they told her not to worry about it - she’d be helping Obama.

I was passing 49th Ward sample ballots with Obama at the top. After talikng to her for awhile I told her she had been scammed by people trying to help Barrios - there was no “Obama North Side Headquarters.” She agreed with my assessment and decided to go dwontown and make calls from the Obama headquarters instead. RogersPark/the 49th Ward has a sizeable Latino population.

I don’t think I agree that Claypool is a big loser. He got lots of chits from reform-oriented candidates who will supoort him if he makes anoother bid for Cook County Board President.

Kudos to Dark Horze for predicting the Alverez victory.

- Thunder - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 2:07 pm:
Clinton won Franklin county. Get your facts straight before you print the news.

- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 2:10 pm:
I wrote the post late last night, and she wasn’t ahead in that county.

- Captain America - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 2:19 pm:
Good riddance to Ralph Caparelli. Jan Schakowsky mentioned to me Monday that Caparelli had her opponent on his palm cards. Obviously, Caparelli was out of touch with his constituents. Don’t know anything about Mary O’Connor, the 41st Committeman victor, but way to go Mary!

- Sango Dem - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 2:41 pm:
Schock is too conservative for the district. A sensible moderate Democrat can beat him.

- Oakparker - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 2:45 pm:
Re Mary O’Connor. I don’t know anything about her either. If you go to her web site, she looks like a genuine community activist. What a novel concept for ward committeemen.

- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 2:57 pm:
Schock is too conservative for the district. A sensible moderate Democrat can beat him.

Ordinary people will look past ideology to an extent if a candidate has “it” (charm, charisma, exuberance, something that people seem to latch onto in a person). For better or worse, Schock seems to have “it” in the same way Obama attracts voters who have some ideological differences with him.

- why so bitter - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 2:58 pm:
claypool gets 3rd biggest looser, houlihan 2nd, dick devine 1st place on the looser pol., endorsed milan (which made no sense in terms of timing &/or electability) alienating alvarez

- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 3:07 pm:
Seriously, Sango? The 18th CD is fairly conservative. Save for parts of Peoria and Pekin, it is definitely a Republican district.

- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 3:10 pm:
“VM, the game is played by the rules on the ground, not the rules in your particular head.”

It looks like I spun this so well Mark Penn decided to say the same thing!

Ha Ha!

I’d never vote for her, but I know how to scoop the poop with the pros, eh?

- Curious - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 4:27 pm:
Other than Pat Quinn, who else was involved in Anita Alvarez’s campaign? Does anybody know who advised her, did her media, PR, etc?

She ran too good of a race to do this by herself.

- Mad as Hell - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 4:55 pm:
Curious-

It was Mike Sheahan’s people. Sally Daly, Skinny Sheahan, and Paul O’Grady.

- chiatty - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 5:01 pm:
I don’t know who did the media, but it was pretty basic stuff. Before her hubby kicked in 600K just ten days before the election, she didn’t have much of a campaign at all. She was backed by one of Sheahan’s sons and by a small group of state’s attorneys, but she really didn’t have much of an organized effort. She had a great poll taken in December that apparently convinced her and her husband to invest the money. She also had the great fortune to be in a race that was divided in such a way that she could be a threat despite being a total novice. The dilution of the black vote and the carving up of the white vote left her with a huge opportunity. Plain and simple, she got lucky, not that there’s anything wrong with that! I wish her good luck in trying to retire the debt. That’ll take a while, especially for an outsider.

- Snidely Whiplash - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 5:04 pm:
You don’t get to be 3rd in line in the SA’s office without political clout. Might the HDO be Alvarez’ skeleton in the closet?

- Darkhorse - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 6:20 pm:
Snidely- The HDO (or what is left of it) supported and helped Brookins. Your comment is ridiculous, a great woman lawyer can’t get anywhere without help? She is as clean as they come. Say it with me: Madame State’s Attorney!

- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 6:25 pm:
Snidely, looking for the HDO under every Latino’s bed is not what you should be doing. Think before you write, please.

- Darkhorse - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 6:39 pm:
Well said Rich!

- anonno - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:03 pm:
Miller’s right, because if you started looking under all those beds you’d find a lot of Skinny Sheahans and we all know who he really works for. OOOOOyee

- chiatty - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:23 pm:
Let’s just keep our eyes open and see if she has a guardian angel reach into a political account and help with that big loan to her campaign.

- anonno - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:47 pm:
Yeah, the guardian angel banks at Amalgamated and it’ll come in with the final filing after the election…but the chumps have seen that before so they might have to go through the “buin-is-men” on this one or Brookins might catch on that he got had.

Pingback WurfWhile » Blog Archive » Laesch-Foster Thoughts Revised - Factors In The Race - Wednesday, Feb 6, 08 @ 8:47 pm:
[…] While the numbers may have overwhelmed and negated the reach of Bill Foster’s mailings and cable TV ads, it also must have posed a challenge to everyone’s mobilization efforts. People off the radar were voting in the Democratic primary, including people who might normally take Republican ballots. Overall this likely hurt Foster more than John Laesch because paradoxically in a campaign where money was often brought up as an issue, high turnout likely negated some money effects. […]

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