The Capitol Fax Blog » Oberweis vs. Foster

Tuesday, Mar 4, 2008

* I think the only major endorsement that Jim Oberweis has received in this Saturday’s special election was from the Daily Herald. And it was entitled: With our fingers crossed, Oberweis to replace Hastert…

In the end, our choice of Oberweis is based on the fact that he better represents a moderate to conservative district, and has grown into a more responsive and less confrontational candidate. And he did a far better job of explaining and supporting his positions than did Foster, who projected less certainty, less clarity and less confidence than he did before the primary.

So it’s Oberweis with our fingers crossed, and the knowledge that we can review the choice again.

* Less confrontational? Maybe at the DH’s editorial board meeting, but that’s not what the Tribune says in its endorsement of Bill Foster…

We’ve watched this race for Congress. [Oberweis’] campaign style has consistently been nasty, smug, condescending . . . and dishonest. […]

The sum impression of Oberweis from four campaigns: He sees public office as an opportunity to pick a fight.

* Aurora Beacon News…

What we hear over and over from Republicans and Democrats in our communities is that people are tired of the bickering and divisiveness in government, whether in Springfield or Washington. Oberweis’ relentless attacks on state Sen. Chris Lauzen in the Republican primary election hint that he is not the right candidate to end government gridlock.

* Meanwhile, the big bucks are rolling in…

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has launched an $850,000 ad buy in former Rep. Dennis Hastert’s (R) district, with an ad accusing Democrat Bill Foster of being a big-government liberal and not representing change.

The NRCC’s investment in next Tuesday’s special election and GOP nominee Jim Oberweis is now up to about $1.2 million — a hefty sum for a committee that only recently got out of debt.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent just more than $600,000 on the race.

Foster will unveil a Barack Obama endorsement ad today.

* Andy Shaw did a nice roundup of the race. You can find their debate at that link as well.

Who do you think will win?

- posted by Rich Miller

31 Comments

- Silent Majority - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 7:37 am:
The special election is Saturday, not Tuesday.

- Snidely Whiplash - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 8:33 am:
If that district goes to a Democrat, the Illinois GOP is truly dead.

- Ghost - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 8:37 am:
Foster will win.

Great summation of Oberweiss
==== The sum impression of Oberweis from four campaigns: He sees public office as an opportunity to pick a fight. ====

Rich any chance you could put a little drop down with the formatting commands for messages on the site? thanks.

- Some Guy - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 8:44 am:
Either Republican Jim Oberweis or Democrat Bill Foster might make a good congressman. And either might just as easily be a disaster.

Attaway to start an endorsement!

- Robert MW Stanford - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 8:44 am:
Oberweis wins, despite a lot of speculation and talk in the end the district will stay Republican and Oberweis will be elected.

- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 8:46 am:
Who will win? Not the district’s voters, that’s for sure.

- Wumpus - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 8:51 am:
Oberweis will win in March, but if Obama wins, FOster will win in Nov.

- train111 - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 9:19 am:
As a 14th Dist resident, here is my $.02

I plan on voting for Foster on Saturday, but my support for him is very tepid at best. (I voted for Stein in the primary)

The Daily Herald ‘kind of endorsement’ of Oberweis was right on the money. Here you have two multimillionares dumping gobs of their own money into the race, with the RNCC and the DNCC both also chipping in considerable sums. The Daily Herald was right on the mark that both have no inkling about the lives of the middle class constituents of the district that they want to represent. Both kind of live in their own worlds and put out the normal partisan platitudes and talking points, while neither has a real grasp on the issues facing the people they plan to represent.

Above, someone stated that the voters of the 14th do not win in this race, and that is indeed correct. We have two very poor out-of-touch candidates running.

My choice of Foster (and I admit to having a sign in my front yard for him–my wife’s doing not mine) is not because of his merits, but because I’m uncomfortable with Oberweis being able to purchase public office as he has attempted several times to do.

My prediction is that Oberweis wins simply due to the Republican lean of the district. Because it is a Saturday special election we may well be suprised by the results however.

train111

- Trafficmatt - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 9:31 am:
I’m going to take the 180 degree thought of Wumpus, although his thoughts of the Obama influence is well considered.

I think it is highly possible that Foster will end up winning in March because of the rift between him and Lauzen and the apparant circling of the wagons on the Dem side. I think the Dems smell the blood in the water, and for the most part, the Republicans (of which I’m one) are generally asleep at the wheel. Couple this with the lack of support from the Lauzen camp, and I think Oberweis loses on Saturday - primarily from get out the vote potential.

If this happens, it will be a wake up call to the sleeping Republican party and a wake up call to Lauzen. The Republican Party is slipping badly in the suburbs, primarily from lack of energy and complacency. Just like a NCAA basketball team needs to lose before March Madness, I think the Republicans might benefit from a high profile loss for a really weird, very short appointment to Congress. Hopefully, if Oberweis loses, people will wake up.

- Bluefish - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 9:56 am:
The Foster team has been working hard to GOTV. I give him a shot but the district will likely break GOP in a close one.

- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 10:06 am:
Foster is trying to do the same thing Oberweis has done for years, although he is new at the game. I think Foster is less offensive and not as expentant of things as Oberweis. If Oberweis truly has calmed down and isn’t as much of blowhard as he used to be, he will win.

The sad thing about this district is that I truly do not believe Denny cares. If Denny cared, he would have put his differences aside with Lauzen and backed the CPA for Congress. While Lauzen sometimes rubs people the wrong way, he is the “lesser of two evils” between himself and Obie. And who knows? Maybe Denny’s backing of Obie is a parting shot to the ILGOP and his other Republican colleagues.

- chiatty - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 10:07 am:
That’s a real tough district for a Dem to win. I’ll say this: Oberweis is a total buffoon. If a Repub can’t get the Tribune to endorse him, he’s got real problems. If Foster does win, it would be yet another sign that the Republican Party in Illinois is on life support, despite the fact that the Dems are in a usual state of disarray.

- wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 10:37 am:
Foster’s not great, but I think he’ll win. Where does the Illinois GOP start? .

Illinois used to send giants to Washington, from both parties — Paul Douglas, Ev Dirksen, Paul Simon, Charles Percy, Rosty.

- jerry 101 - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 11:05 am:
Foster will win.

Helicopter Jim is too crazy to ever get elected to public office. He’d be an embarrassment to the 14th and to the State as a whole.

As bad as Blagojevich is, Oberweiss is a hundred times further out there.

- Dirty Bath Water - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 11:05 am:
Oberweis is like this years weather. Oh no, snow again?!! I believe people would rather have Oberweis disappear than see his goofy face and commercials. Foster will win 53%-47%.

- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 12:03 pm:
Oberweis. This district is not purple enough.

- Centrino - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 12:17 pm:
I think Foster will win, but not by much. Oberweis’ campaign has lacked focus and message from the start. Add in that it doesn’t have the ground game needed to contact voters, it’s a recipe for defeat in a GOP district, just ask Phil Crane. Many of Oberweis’ volunteers, I’ve found, are from outside the 14th District.

Oberweis made a bad choice in bringing in people to his campaign who have contributed to the loss of half a dozen statewide candidates over the last few cycles. He also thinks that Speaker Hastert’s endorsement is enough for him to win. Jim Oberweis is not Speaker Hastert.

If the Speaker’s endorsement was worth as much as they thought, Oberweis would have picked up the Tribune endorsement.

It’s a shame, but I hope he pulls through.

- Snidely Whiplash - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 12:21 pm:
This is one of those races where the wrong choice of candidate reduces a party’s safe seat to a forever lost seat. Obie is just too controversial, and stirs up such negative feelings that a good number of people will make sure they get to the polls just to vote against him. GOP’ers are less than enthused with him, as well. His run-for-everything-until-I-win-something approach is just getting to be comedic.

- Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 12:23 pm:
If Foster wins it will be on Lauzen and the right wing whack jobs of the 14th districts fault. I don’t think Foster will win though. Hard to call, it depends a lot on who remembers to vote Saturday.

- winco - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 12:27 pm:
I would be pretty surprised if this district went Democratic. That being said, it takes people really motivated to get out and vote on Saturday in a special election. Are there any people that motivated for Oberweis? I think there are Dems that are motivated to take this seat.

- Snidely Whiplash - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 12:30 pm:
Winco, I think you’ve pretty much summed it up.

- Some Guy - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 12:53 pm:
I think Oberweis wins despite himself due to the district. And then he loses in November. He’ll have 8 months between now & then to not say anything stupid to anger those already opposed to him and alienate those willing to hold their noses and vote for him. What are the odds he can avoid being a rotten candidate for that long a stretch?

If he loses this weekend, there’s no way he wins in November. Not NRCC won’t fund it, and Oberweis has never been the sort of guy people warm up to the longer they see him. Plus there’s the whole Obama angle.

Frankly, I think it might strangely be in the best long term interests of teh GOP that he lose this weekend.

If he wins, they’ll put more resources into the November race, resources that could be used to help Kirk, or the Lucky Raffle Winner in the 11th District, and other races. And like I said above, I don’t see him winning in November, regardless of how this weekend plays out.

Should he prove me wrong and win both races this year, he’d be a good target for 2010 because he’s such a rotten politician. I can see just about any other Republican in the state safely holding the 14th, but Obie isn’t any other politician. He’s the guy they passed over to get Alan Keyes.

If he loses this weekend, the GOP can prioritize Kirk, minimize their losses, and be put themselves in a good position to reclaim the district in 2010. Foster doesn’t strike me as being anywhere near as sharp as Melissa Bean, and he’ll have trouble holding onto a conservative district. All the IL GOP has to do is find a candidate who isn’t an embarrassment. (Then again, give their recent track record, maybe Foster would be safe after all).

- probably voting for Foster - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 1:21 pm:
Its pretty pathetic to read in an enddorsement that while we agree more with the other guy we just don’t like him. I feel sorry for the ILGOP. Their candidates are so terrible that people who agree with them politically will still not vote for them. The milk man has always been a bit of a nut and will always be a nut. Taking Denny’s campaign office and staff doesn’t change who he is. I feel sorry for all of my fellow voters in the 14th. Who will we hate less as our congressman? I suppose only time will tell…

- Lefty Lefty - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 1:53 pm:
The Oberweis/Lauzen feud is really going to hurt Oberweis. And if Laesch could get 45% of the vote against Hastert in 2006, this district is ripe for the picking under the circumstances.

I also think the fact that this is on Saturday is going to make turnout a huge wild card. But I think Foster will win.

- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 1:56 pm:
12:23 - seriously? That’s the same logic Obie and his campaign used in 2006 when Brady was in the primary. Obie just wasn’t a good enough candidate then, and if he didn’t have the backing of Hastert now he would have never beaten Lauzen.

- IncrediblyDumberThanYouThink - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 2:00 pm:
Trib goes against ChopperJim and The Speaker comes to SPI on Wednesday to speak to the legislature. Looks like this is shaping up as a big D win. Was that in Chairman Andy’s master plan?

- Lefty - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 3:24 pm:
Is this the best they have to offer to replace Denny? If the Repubs. have to use Ice Cream Jim to hold a seat then they don’t deserve to keep it. Can anyone be as bad as any one of Jim’s opponents in any race he has ever run? Please Jim, just go away.

- Annonymous - Tuesday, Mar 4, 08 @ 8:35 pm:
I think Oberweis will win, but it will be close. If he doesn’t, Snidely’s right: bad tidings for the IL GOP if one of the few left willing to run, loses. (Who’s left to even care enough to try? The few we have in our new crop won’t step up, so there’s hardly anyone unless some of the biz execs who are beginning to retire decide to take a shot at running.)

Regarding the Trib’s statement, Voters have to look at all of the campaigns from a “collective” perspective. These guys are getting more air time than ever before and they’re learning as they go along. I can’t think of a single candidate recently who hasn’t fed the media some bad sound bytes to obsess over, so voters need to filter through this stuff more than ever before.

It’s a brave new world, folks, and we need to learn how to put it all into perspective.

- Cheap-Thrills - Wednesday, Mar 5, 08 @ 8:47 am:
I have never been able to bring myself to vote for a democrat and I don’t think Saturday will be any different. People need to wake up and see that democrat is just another word for socialist. The only change you will see is the change that they leave in your pocket after their tax, spend and redistribution of wealth policies take effect. Yes I wish we could have come up with a better candidate than Jimmy O, but he still beats the alternative.

- LuckBeALady - Saturday, Mar 8, 08 @ 6:14 pm:
Just returned from the polls. I can’t believe this area can’t come up with two better candidates than Oberweis and Foster. Neither candidate excites me beyond a yawn, so I left the decision to a quater. The quarter picked Foster, so we’ll see how accurate it is.

- in the know - Saturday, Mar 8, 08 @ 8:49 pm:
Cheap thrills…2008 is going to be a painful year for you. Foster is leading the ice cream man 53-47. If the Dems can win in this district, there will be a lot of blue states on the map in november.

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