Big Schock lead
Tuesday, Sep 2, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* No surprise here. A new GOP poll shows Republican Congressional candidate Aaron Schock with a big lead From a press release…
Aaron Schock leads Colleen Callahan 56%-27% on the congressional ballot test, with 2% of voters choosing Green Party candidate Sheldon Schafer and 13% undecided. By intensity, 39% are committed to Schock, while 17% definitely vote for Callahan.
The challenge Callahan faces is compounded by the fact that she trails Schock significantly in name recognition and favorables. Eighty-four percent (84%) of likely voters have heard of Schock, with 58% having a favorable impression of him and 12% having an unfavorable impression. By contrast, Callahan’s image is 66% heard of/29% favorable/9% unfavorable.
Matching Aaron’s name recognition and favorables in the final nine weeks of the campaign is a tall order for the Callahan campaign.
Even during the most anti-Republican national political environment in decades, district voters prefer to vote for Aaron Schock in November.
Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey of likely voters in the 18th Congressional District of Illinois for the Aaron Schock for Congress Campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The survey was completed August 18-20, 2008 among four hundred (400) likely voters in the district and has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.
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- Secret Square - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 9:17 am:
It seems really hard for me to believe that Callahan would trail Schock in “name recognition” by THAT big a margin. She was on Peoria TV and radio for 30 + years!
I remember seeing her on the noon TV news during my lunch breaks (I walked home from school to eat lunch) as a kid, before Schock was even born. I believe most of the 18th District is well within the broadcast range/market area of the station for which she worked (WMBD).
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 9:17 am:
If Schock wants to keep this lead, he needs to disappear until Election Day. Skip the debates. He less he is seen, the better his chances of a landslide.
- Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 9:18 am:
Whats the core dem percenatge in that district? STatewide she is not even polling in the mid 30’s, which would refelct a minimium draw from core dem voters.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 9:42 am:
The Whiz Kid should just play it safe and not say too much.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 9:46 am:
I’m not surprised by either number.
To me, Callahan’s campaign manager’s quote that he “will hold their polling numbers close to his chest” means they either didn’t do a poll or that the number would embarrass them.
- Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 12:16 pm:
Should be no surprise in the 18th District that the Republican is leading. There has not been a Dem congressman in this district since the Great Depression!
The Dems have been disorganized in this particular district for years.
- BrianG - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 12:42 pm:
It’s time for a little critical thinking, Rich. Public Opinion Strategies ia about as “fair and balanced” as Fox News. I am to believe that Colleen is only polling as well as Steve Waterworth did in his first run against incumbent Ray LaHood, and she is running for an open seat against a candidate who advocates giving nukes to Taiwan, a policy which cost the top two officers in the USAF their jobs. The same candidate who states that Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama are “socialists.” Also didn’t Schock have 1,400 people at a fundraiser attended by the President and did not Colleen have 750 come out on that same night just to see her. I refuse to see this race as a cakewalk with her numerous social networks and her ties to the Democratic leadership in the southern half of the district. This race is far from over even if Schock has an abundance of money flowing his way from the Beltway.
- Excessively rabid - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 1:03 pm:
The dems best shot at electing a congressperson from that district is to send Schock to congress for a couple of years and then have him run on his record.
- S. Sam - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 2:03 pm:
Despite its rural nature the district does not have all that many farmers: I grew up in a farm community but our family–like virtually every other family we knew–didn’t farm and no one paid attention to the farm reports. Callahan is not the next coming of Houli by any means.
Social networks in the southern part of the district don’t go too far when only 20% of the voters are there and the area votes much more Republican than in the Peoria area.
Schock was attacked for releasing a poll showing him well ahead before the primary and Billy Dennis et al declared it nothing more than a “push poll.” Schock’s final percentage beat the poll by over ten percentage points.
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 2:31 pm:
We all know Schock is going to win - and we all know it will likely be big. I dont understand why Callahan would go so negative with so little of a chance, why make yourself look bad with such an obvious outcome? Public Opinion Strategies is one of the most repected there is. If Callahan’s camp had any numbers that were somewhat favorable for her - they would be foolish not to share.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 2:47 pm:
===If Callahan’s camp had any numbers that were somewhat favorable for her - they would be foolish not to share.===
Agreed.
Every time we have a poll story, somebody feels it necessary to attack the pollster. Pollster’s aren’t always right, and some are pure hacks, but this survey probably isn’t far off the mark.
- BrianG - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 2:50 pm:
The race for Congress is going to be a highly visible and highly partisan affair. I base my analysis on the fact that the 18th CD has a partisan index of 5.5 % R which is comparable to IL 14 which recently flipped to Democratic in the special election. I also noted that when the Democrats run a viable candidate thaey come rather close. Check out the Republican margins of victory over Doug Stephens in his three races against Michel and LaHood. I seriously doubt that Schock will receive very many Democratic crossovers or very many Independent voters. He has a monetary advantage and an experienced campaign manager. She should benefit from a larger than usual and more enthusiastic turnout that the G.O.P. Schock may benefit by the many supporters of Alaska independence who’ll come out in droves to support Sarah Palin. Who knows, but I seriously doubt Schock will win two to one.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 2:58 pm:
BrianG, you’re looking at an old district which doesn’t exist anymore. A new map was drawn by the incumbent before the 2002 race. Since then, no race has been even a little close.
And that area is chock full of blue collar, Reagan Democrat/Republican ticket splitters. Schock proved it. So did LaHood.
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 3:18 pm:
Schock’s state rep district and probably the school board he was on, were more democratic - so he does appeal to those voters.
- Sage - Tuesday, Sep 2, 08 @ 3:40 pm:
Schock won with 59% for re-election as state rep in a 60% dem district. It’s the largest concentration of dems in the 18th congressional district. So he’s already won over the hardest part of the congressional district for a Republican. He has lots of dem support, just look at his TV ads from the last campaign. Also like his re-election campaign, he will have a few union endorsements as well.
Callahan just lost the Farm Bureau endorsement despite having broadcast on their radio network for 30 years. Things aren’t going well for her.
The debate hype is ridiculous. Anyone doing 10 debates isn’t hiding. Obama is only doing 3. What other congressional races are doing more?