Sorry it’s so late today. Lots of work on my plate.
* Question: Predict Barack Obama’s margin of victory in Illinois.
* Bonus Questions: Will Obama have Illinois coattails? Where?
Explain all your answers as completely as possible. Thanks.
- posted by Rich Miller
- Levois - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:20 pm:
I’ll give it at least 55-45. Obama is very likely to win Illinois. I just don’t believe he’ll run away with it.
- Captain Flume - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:24 pm:
I think Obama will carry Chicago-Cook with 70%, Quad Cities and Metro East with 60%-65%, rest of the state 45%-50%.
- Captain Flume - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:26 pm:
Ooops. The explanation follows the Governor Blagojevich voting trend in his last election. I don’t think Obama has much of a coattail in Illinois, because it would be very hard to discern from the state’s already Democratic tendency.
- wordslinger - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:29 pm:
Obama 55-45. No coattails, except perhaps for Halvorsen, where new voters coming out for Obama will help her.
- doubtful - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:47 pm:
60%-40% Obama over McCain. Coattails possible in the Kirk/Seals race (it is what Seals is counting on, at least). Obama will probably keep Bean in.
Outside chance that Obama’s popularity brings victory to the relatively unknown Durbin. :)
Really, at this point, it’s all about motivation. Relatively few people are undecided. I’m not sure the McCain camp is motivating people right now and that’s reflected in the polls. It’s probably a good thing for Democratic coattails that Rod won’t be on the ballot.
- Speaking At Will - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:52 pm:
Obama Loses Illinois 51 - 48 after Rod goes on a state wide speaking tour endorsing Obama.
;)
- A Citizen - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:52 pm:
What a disgustingly presumptuous question! I took a poll in my household and the results were 100% McCain and 0% That One.
- Team America - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 12:58 pm:
55%-45% Obama / McCain. No question Obama will win Illinois, but I wonder if voter turnout will be less than expected. The prospective ‘thrill’ of voting for Obama will be old by then, most Dems will be unmotivated since they know Obama has a lock and their vote won’t make any difference. I suspect many will want to say they voted for Obama (if he wins) but how many will actually get off their duff and do it, when it’s not going to make a difference?
Also, I suspect the Machine will be exporting every willing and available trooper to the surrounding states, so the usual GOTV effort will be diminished here. Early voting will only make up so much.
Seals is desperate for Obama coattails but IL-10 is notoriously independent and loves to split tickets to prove to themselves how smart and reasonable they are. Kirk already shared a ballot once with Obama and did great.
Most IL-10 swing voters may take a chance with one untested candidate in Obama, but they won’t go for double the inexperience with Seals too.
- Alison - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:04 pm:
With the GOTV efforts, I think he will get 65 - 70 percent. Not beyond that. Obama could not carry 10 counties in 2004. He will lose in those counties again. Quite possibly 1 or 2 more. Citizens in Central and So. IL know better than to vote for a Chicago politician.
- cermak_rd - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:06 pm:
I think Obama takes IL by at least 10, if not 15. IL is already blue and this is one of our own we’re talking about. Also, I’ve never seen so many motivated people all over.
I think it may actually help Seals, I think Bean would have won regardless, and I think it helps Foster stay in. I’m more interested, to be honest, in seeing what proportion of the registered voters actually get out and vote.
- doubtful - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:13 pm:
I think Bean would have won regardless… -cermak_rd
I haven’t seen any polling, I just know she is not in the good graces of the left, so she’s damned from both sides, and the district leans right, typically.
Also, to expand my thoughts regarding coattails, if the DOW keeps falling like lead and the economy continues to shed jobs, it hurts the Republican brand as a whole. Local politics normally takes a backseat to national when there is a presidential election, but will do so even more in the face of a failing economy.
- Wumpus - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:14 pm:
Obama 114%-McCAin (-26%) This is Chicago/IL after all. Seriously 58-42 ish. There will be coat-tails in areas with a lot of minorities and college students who vote in that district. Foster may be a big beneficiary if my geography is accurate.
- Captain America - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:26 pm:
Landslide in Illinois for Obama 20 -25 points, atleast, if not more.
Angry candidates don’t do well in Presidential politics. McCain may be energizing his conservative base with his desperate, over-the-top, “all negative-all-the time” attack strategy, but it’s alienating well-informed independents and even moderate Republican voters.
The Ayers terrorist backlash against McCain should be really marked in metropolitan Chicago since everyone knows that this line of attack is ridiculous/absurd.
Obama coattails will likely sweep Halvorson into office without difficulty and possibly result in a Seals upset of Kirk.
Elizabeth Coulson will be lucky/fortunate if she survives the economic tsunami and the Obama landslide in Cook County - there’s a reason Republicans have reportedly been resorting to negative push-polling in her district.
But Coulson definitely appears to have a reliable,substantial solid base in Glenview - she lives there- based upon my personal observations/experience at the Glenview train station the other day. I was campaigning with her opponent, Daniel Biss.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:37 pm:
Oberweiss is doomed - Foster will win by a bigger margin than before because of the Obama turnout.
In response to Team Americs’s remark, I see no evidence that Democratic tunrout will be depressed by Obama’s inevitable victory here. My personal observations are that people in Chicago and Northern Cook County are wild to vote. If there is any depressed turnout it will be discouraged and disillusioned Republicans who fail to vote, which will increase Obama’s margin of victory.
- Alison - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:40 pm:
Many of the still-unhappy Dems will vote strictly because of the importance of the down ballot:
–Dan Seals (IL-10) has a better than even chance this year. –Debbie Halvorson (IL-11) is much-needed change for IL. –Scott Harper (IL-13) should do well since more people have seen the incumbents horns this term. –Steve Cox (IL-15) would actually work for his salary unlike the incumbent. –Robert Abboud (IL-16) has shown more common sense and true business sense. –Colleen Callahan (IL-18) is an intelligent adult (unlike the alternative choice). –Daniel Davis (IL-19) has been concerned and hard-working enough these past weeks to travel meeting everyone he can. He shows up. The incumbent remains a no show.
All locality elections are important if not more important. After the Denver, the undecideds know that all too well.
- Skeeter - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:54 pm:
Obama wins 58-42.
Coattails bring out the vote for Seals, Halvorsen, Foster, and Froehlich.
As a long ago Chair of Schaumburg Township Young Democrats, I still can’t believe Schaumburg is electing Democrats, but that’s another issue.
- Angry Chicagoan - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:59 pm:
58-42. People are seriously PO’d to say the least about the economic trainwreck, and all McCain and Palin have to say about it is “terrorist” and “Bill Ayers”, or shoot-from-the-hip proposals that don’t work and get altered in the very next news cycle. However, in Illinois, there’s no doubt that Blago, Toddler, Emil the Evil, and even now Da Mare are serious political liabilities for the Democrats, otherwise I’d give Obama 62-38 here. Obama gets a little ahead because his TV ads are basically hitting every single state now thanks to his cable buy and the upcoming infomercial. Note that this is only a three percent net swing (average of Dem gain and Republican loss) — much less than the national average that I expect to be six percent or so. If Illinois were truly in line with the rest of the country, and we didn’t have Democratic boat anchors like Blago running around, Obama might well be pushing 63, 64 percent.
Further prediction; Obama will beat Kerry’s performance last time in Chicago handsomely, pushing close to or beyond 90 percent of the city vote, shattering even the huge margins of Kerry, Gore and JFK in the city. City voters are all too aware of the difference between Obama and Blago and also irate about the Chicago smears of McCain. Suburban voters on the other hand won’t go that strongly for Obama because they’re more receptive to the attacks and because they look towards the city and all they can see is Blago and Toddler and a patronage tax, er, sales tax every time they shop at Woodfield instead of Oak Brook.
Congressional races could also be very interesting because very few of the Democratic challengers are linked to the Springfield tragi-comedy. Halvorson, who is, will be in a closer race than many think, but elsewhere I expect Dem gains where people least expect them. Judy Biggert, that might just mean you.
- No More Taxes - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 1:59 pm:
McCain will win Illinois, and Schaumburg will finally get smart and elect Republicans to represent them. The key word is represent them. What a novel idea.
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:02 pm:
With early voting expanding the window, I’m guessing more turnout among young, first-time voters will help Obama in Illinois. I don’t know if he’ll hit 60 percent or not, but will be darn close if he doesn’t. Then again, I do see a lot of McCain/Palin signs up now in S. IL. There may be a Copperhead effect down here…I can’t wait to see the results by county or even area code!
- I'mTellingYou - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:13 pm:
I can tell you that down here in Springfield land there is not a whole lot of enthusiasm for Obama. I suppose Obama will carry the state (45 McCain - 50 Obama - 5 Other)but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if many of the down state counties go for McCain. I hate how Cook county pulls the rest of the state towards the left against the will of the rest of its citizens. I would think that even in Cook county the people would finally say enough of this BS. What does it take?
- Team Sleep - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:13 pm:
Obama 60, McCain 38, Barr 2
No one in their right mind thinks McCain can even sniff Illinois. He will get slaughtered.
Seals, Halvorson, Biss, McGuire and Froelich will all benefit from the Obama Bump.
Linda Holmes will not, though. Wintermute will take her out.
I would say Foster BUT he’s already benefitted from the bump.
- Deep South - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:19 pm:
I haven’t seen any polling but I’m thinking Forby is hoping for some Obama coattail action.
- JonShibleyFan - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:30 pm:
“Also, I suspect the Machine will be exporting every willing and available trooper to the surrounding states,”
That is a crock. The next time “the Machine” gets the vote out for Barack will be the first.
- doubtful - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:32 pm:
I hate how Cook county pulls the rest of the state towards the left against the will of the rest of its citizens. -I’mTellingYou
Yeah, what’s with each citizen having the same voting power as another citizen who lives in a different place. That’s so unfair.
Animals who agree with you are more equal than others, right?
It’s simple ‘little d’ democracy. I’ll bet you could find a Democrat in Texas with virtually the same complaint as you.
- ChicagoDem - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:35 pm:
“Captain America”…to bring up Obama’s association with Ayer is ridiculous/absurd? as one who remembers how the Ayer types were playing “war” and the harm they caused the innocent is not forgettable. Unless you truly believe that their acts were totally despicable, as Obama says, then one should and stay away from these types…a lot of pseudo revolutionary types “played revolution” with an intent to destroy ‘Amerika’ only to fall back and demand their constitutional rights!! and to think, the Ayers of the world still justify their past actions?
- No More Taxes - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:36 pm:
I think people in Cook County are tired of high taxes. Cook County would be better off with the Republicans. I really think Illinois will turn RED.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:46 pm:
Obama should win here, but to come up with a number is ridiculous. There has never been events like this occuring before a presidential election.
Anything goes.
- South of I-80 - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:47 pm:
Obama - 58-42
Obama will certainly have some coat tails in the burbs but will be a drag on Southern Illinois voter turn out. (Durbin too) McCain will win south of I-70 65-35 but this represents only 10% of the states vote.
- sinequanon - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:52 pm:
the spread will be 16 pts
- I'mTellingYou - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:53 pm:
Doubtful you don’t get it. You have seen the county-by-county break out in the 2004 election. All but two counties went republican and yet the state is considered a blue state. Yes I believe that it’s one vote for each person, although I’m not sure Cook county believes that, but I’m just saying that I would think that the people in Cook county would begin to realize that the democrats are not the answer to everything.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:55 pm:
===All but two counties went republican===
In what election?
- doubtful - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 2:58 pm:
I’mTellingYou,
Unless you’re looking at a weighted map, it means nothing.
If you’re just looking at the state of Illinois as is and lamenting that more land mass is colored red than blue, then you’re saying nothing.
Look at a map weighted for population density.
To put it quite simply, it doesn’t matter how many counties are blue or red. It matter how many people vote for a candidate. Period.
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:01 pm:
Maybe he meant area codes or time zones…
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:03 pm:
ChicagoDem, does that guilt by barely associating go for all the wealthy Republican bigshots who sat on the same board with Ayers and Obama? The list is long, and very impressive. The Tribune’s former publisher was on that board.
Also, Stan Ikenberry sat on that board. Such a radical.
- Snidely Whiplash - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:08 pm:
Obama 60/40 statewide, 70/30 or better in Cook. Coattails benfitting Anita Alvarez, Debbie Halvorson & Dan Seals.
- I'mTellingYou - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:09 pm:
I am working from memory but I believe that in the 2004 election, George Bush carried all but two counties in Illinois. I know the local races had different results but the state’s electoral votes for the presidential election went for John Kerry.
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:13 pm:
Your memory is failing you…I know Madison & St. Clair went blue, and call me a wildman but I’m guessing Cook did also.
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:15 pm:
Actually I just used this new thing called Google and found out 15 counties went for Kerry. Here’s the link: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&year=2004&fips=17
- wordslinger - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:15 pm:
–There has never been events like this occuring before a presidential election.–
I know that you mean “have,” but still…
Just off the top of my head, there were presidential elections in 1860, 1864, 1916, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944 and 1980 where the storm clouds were quite dark.
- I'mTellingYou - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:16 pm:
Okay 15 went. That’s 15 out of a 102.
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:17 pm:
I was thinking maybe 1984, but Mondale actually won 6 counties by my count. If the Gipper didn’t carry 100 Illinois counties, my money is on nobody ever will (including Obama).
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:20 pm:
==That’s 15 out of a 102== You’re right—we shouldn’t count votes by person, we should count it by acre. There’s good reason for a con-con!
- I'mTellingYou - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:23 pm:
Please read my post Quimby.
“Yes I believe that it’s one vote for each person, although I’m not sure Cook county believes that, but I’m just saying that I would think that the people in Cook county would begin to realize that the democrats are not the answer to everything. “
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:23 pm:
===If the Gipper didn’t carry 100 Illinois counties, my money is on nobody ever will (including Obama). ===
Jesse White carried every county six years ago.
What are you talking about on that 15 county total? Governor? The man didn’t hit 50 percent statewide. Not a great gauge.
- doubtful - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:25 pm:
Okay 15 went. That’s 15 out of a 102. -I’mTellingYou
Two facts relevant to this discussion:
15 > 2 54.82% > 44.48%
Look, I don’t know how it can be said any more plainly. Elections are not determined by the predominant color of a map. They are determined by votes.
This is such an absurd, divergent argument which no one with a rudimentary grasp of democracy would engage in. I’m starting to think you’re just trolling.
- I'mTellingYou - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:28 pm:
George Bush verses John Kerry. 2004 presidential election.
- Black Ivy - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:31 pm:
I can’t even pretend to fathom an Obama victory…Illinois or otherwise.
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:32 pm:
Rich, I was going by the presidential race in 2004 and 1984. I’m, I did read your post but when you post obvious falsehoods (the preceding sentence to your reference) it skews everything. You go from incorrect assumptionss to accusations to opinions. It’s like you’re typing from a 4-year-old Bush/Cheney talking point letter. I agree people OUTSIDE of Cook County wonder why they don’t give up on the Democrats, but those inside have no other realistic choice. It’s the machine, man.
- I'mTellingYou - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:35 pm:
Whatever Doubtful. I’ll tell you this much. It isn’t just me that feels this way. Not by a long shot. Not by a very very long shot. You talk to people that LIVE downstate, and you’ll see what I’m talking about.
Well bottom line, Obama will carry the state. There’s not doubt about that.
- doubtful - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:44 pm:
I’ll tell you this much. It isn’t just me that feels this way. Not by a long shot. -I’mTellingYou
I never doubted that there are other people out there that misunderstand the basic fundamentals of our democracy. I’m sure it’s not limited to any ideaology or party either.
But what it boils down to is that everyone in the state gets a vote. Each votes counts the same.
Essentially what you’re saying is that the votes of an entire apartment building full of people only counts as much as one house on an acre of land because they have the same geographic footprint.
It doesn’t matter how many people believe that, it’s still wrong.
Why do I feel like I’m playing tennis with a brick wall?
- Vote Quimby! - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:47 pm:
lol doubtful…more like banging your head. I’m done
- wordslinger - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 3:58 pm:
I’m Telling You, there have been GOP candidates who have pulled enough votes out of Cook County to win statewide. Reagan, Thompson and Edgar come to mind. Takes the right candidate.
There are still plenty of, for lack of a better phrase, Reagan Democrats in Cook and the collars. A lot of them will be voting for McCain, believe me. Tip a couple of beers with some ironworkers or traders, they won’t hesitate to volunteer the information.
Like Rich always says though, you have to couple them with Suburban Women to win.
I have Obama 55-45. I think it would be closer without the Wall Street meltdown.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 4:09 pm:
I would guess Obama by 11 points. I wouldn’t say he has coattails as much as the Repubs and the economy are repelling voters and they will vote Democratic.
Judging by the venom in some posts in another thread it is looking like Seals may pull this thing off.
There will be a huge Democratic swing helping the entire ticket. Obama helps, but it is bigger than him.
- cermak_rd - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 4:10 pm:
I hear that argument all the time from my family who live in Central IL. It isn’t fair that Cook County gets to determine our politics. Sigh, first, it’s not just Cook County, DuPage, and Lake County also get some say, but secondly, when you’ve got 5 million people in a county, that county is going to have a lot of votes in it.
There’s also a lack of recognition that as other regions of IL have lost population, while the northern part of the state has either stayed steady (like Chicago proper) or gained (the northern counties), then those shrinking regions will have less political representation naturally.
- Soy Milk - Formerly Known As Napoleon has left the building - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 4:12 pm:
Obama 59.5% McCain 39.4%
Coat-tail victories for Dan Seals, Aurora Austriaco, Bill Gentes, Diane McGuire, and Linda Holmes. I call all of them coat-tails because I think none of them would win without Obama this year.
Foster and Halvorson are winners even without Barack’s tails.
The Biss-Coulson race is too close to call, but I will say Coulson by 400 votes.
- IrishPirate - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 4:16 pm:
Barring the Holy Trinity descending from the heavens on Elephants and being led by Caribou Barbie on a moose, Obama should have a 20+ point spread in Illinois. Bean, Halvorsen, Foster, and hopefully Seals will benefit.
When Chris Buckley writes a column endorsing Obama the games no longer afoot………….it’s over.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-a nd-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama
- Joe in the Know - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 4:32 pm:
56 Obama
40 McCain
4 others
Obama will have coattails in Will County (Halvorson will best Ozinga), and in northern Cook (Seals bests Kirk). Oberweis loses again.
- downstate dem - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 4:38 pm:
Obama 55 McCain 45
Coattails will exist on a few legislative races, but on the local issues I know downstate, it will not mean much.
- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 5:08 pm:
word, I’m about where you are.
55-45, and woulda been closer had Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barney Frank not personally caused the financial meltdown.
just kidding there.
AA doesn’t see coattails long enough to help Seals, but maybe Halvorson & Foster, aided also because they’re running against a couple of knuckleheads.
- Plutocrat03 - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 5:14 pm:
10 points to the anointed one.
Coattails will be slimmer than expected due to the turmoil and disaster in the state.
- Some Guy - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 6:00 pm:
Nixon carried 101 in 1972, including Cook. Only Jackson County downstate went for McGovern.
- Cal Skinner - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 7:38 pm:
26th State Senate District Democrat Bill Gentes thinks so.
He’s got Obama-Gentes yard signs you can see at McHenry County Blog.
- wordslinger - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 8:20 pm:
Pluto, nobody’s anointed, daddio, not for president. You’ve got to win.
I’m starting to sense an attitude among anti-Obamaniacs that existed among anti-Reaganites. Everyone said Reagan was too dumb to be president and if the people only understood who he was and what he stood for, they would vote for the other guy.
Obama is inexperienced and a phony, and if the people only, blah, blah, blah….
With Reagan, forty four states in 80 and 49 states in 84 later, they were still saying it.
Obama hasn’t won anything. But if he does win, it won’t be because people don’t know who he is.
- wordslinger - Friday, Oct 10, 08 @ 10:16 pm:
It’s getting ugly out there. Check out the Trib online. McCain in Wisconsin and Minnesota has had to tamp down some of the Obama haters at his rallies.
McCain is the GOP candidate for president in a hard-ball, zero-sum game but beyond that he’s a patriot and a decent man. Salud, Sen. McCain, for facing down the haters.
- John Presta - Saturday, Oct 11, 08 @ 5:38 am:
Obama 67%, McCain 32%, Others 1%. Debbie Halvorson is one beneficiary and it does help to have a weak candidate against her couple with a strong Obama performance. Unfortunately, will not help Seals. Mark Kirk is too embedded. Peter Roskam will also win. Weak opponent too. Where is Christine Cegalis when you need her. All other incumbents will win. State House will go super-majority. And I know you didn’t ask, but without Emil Jones protecting the Guv, he’ll be impeached quickly in January if he’s indicted. Welcome Governor Quinn.
- bluedog demo - Saturday, Oct 11, 08 @ 6:28 am:
Obama by 60-40. Will help Halvorson best Ozinga. Now the two camps are argueing over who is the most tainted by Blago. Sadly my county chairman and his sidemen continue to ” cling ” to Blago in hopes of a Capital Construction bill !
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