The Capitol Fax Blog » Congressional roundup

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008

* Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson has released a new poll…

A poll paid for by Halvorson shows her leading Ozinga 48 percent to 29 percent, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5 percent. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 10 to Oct. 13. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The campaign released only a one-page summary of the results.

That tracks pretty closely with a Progress Illinois poll releaed Monday that had Halvorson ahead 50-29.

* Ozinga response…

Ozinga’s campaign said its polling shows a tighter race for the 11th Congressional District seat but declined to release numbers. Ozinga campaign manager Andy Sere noted Halvorson is still at or under 50 percent in the polls despite major spending on advertising by her campaign and interest groups.

* Ozinga was endorsed by yet another newspaper. This time, it was the Bloomington Pantagraph…

The Pantagraph Editorial Board endorses Marty Ozinga because his businesslike approach to government would best serve this district — and the nation.

* Democratic congressional hopeful Scott Harper, who is up against Republican Rep. Judy Biggert, released part of his own poll, but not the head to heads. Instead, he leaked the Barack Obama numbers…

The poll, done Oct. 9 to 11 by Fako & Associates, showed Obama ahead of McCain in the district 47 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Fako is a good pollster, and those numbers track fairly with what I’ve been seeing in the region. McCain has tanked.

* Response…

Biggert campaign manager John Noak scoffed at the limited release, saying he is “very confident in the congresswoman’s polling that she is leading by a substantial amount.” The

* Democrat Colleen Callahan has a new ad that blasts GOP state Rep. Aaron Schock in their congressional race. It doesn’t look like a game changer to me, but see for yourself…

Schock has a new TV ad featuring Democratic state Rep. Susana Mendoza, but it’s not online yet.

* The Tribune endorsed Schock, Foster and Judy Biggert today.

* Dem Congresscritter Bill Foster has what appears to be his postive closer up on the air…

* Related…

* Governor replaces 2 election board members

* Candidates to replace Weller bring in big names for fundraising boost

* 14th District candidates offer views on energy issues

- posted by Rich Miller

16 Comments

- fedup dem - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 11:08 am:
With Emil Jones a lame duck, could we possibly eee the Illinois Senate not rubber stamp its OK of these two Election Board appointments? I guess that might be asking too much.

- Been There - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 11:11 am:
====showed Obama ahead of McCain in the district 47 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Fako is a good pollster, and those numbers track fairly with what I’ve been seeing in the region. McCain has tanked.=====
Now, I will agree that Fako is a good at what he does. But he also only does what he is paid for. Obviously with a +/- 4.9% there were only around 400 people polled. That literally means the race could be McCain 45% and Obama 42% and the poll is still correct. I’m not a McCain fan but I think with all the variables involved in a district (race, sex, age, etc.) that a poll with almost a 5% margin of error doesn’t say much. The candidate should be paying for a much deeper poll if they want something closer to reality. Unless they are just using it to make them look good in the press.

- Just Observing - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 11:12 am:
The Callahan ad against Schock seems weak — I agree it is not a game changer.

What is the backstory on Mendoza doing the ad for Schock???

- wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 11:14 am:
It occurs to me that I haven’t seen or heard an Oberweis ad for weeks. I wonder if he’s decided to hold on to his cash.

- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 11:16 am:
Been There, with that sample size, the statistical probability that Obama leads McCain is 93.39 percent.

MoE does not mean what you think it means.

- Just Observing - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 11:29 am:
A Margin of Error of 4.9 percent does not mean that the liklihood of the real numbers to move 4.9 points in either direction is exactly the same as what is being reported — the reported numbers are still the most accurate numbers — a lead is a lead. The margin of error is simply a cover your a@@ number.

- Been There - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 11:56 am:
Well, I was always good with numbers but never good at statistics. But from my limited knowledge I still think that this small of a sample is not reliable. According to Rich, there is still a 6.61% chance that McCain could be in the lead. Or in other words, it assumes 1 out of 15 of these polls with 400 samples is just plain wrong. Not much of a chance this poll is wrong but give me at least another one or two polls to compare to before I jump aboard.

- Deeda - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 12:04 pm:
Has anyone herd the results of the Friends For Foehlich poll? Many of my friends go the call to see if they would vote for Paul or Annita. This happened about 1-2 months ago.

- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 12:07 pm:
===It assumes 1 out of 15 of these polls with 400 samples is just plain wrong. ===

Do you ever play cards? I’m willing to host the game. Cash only, please. No checks. :)

- Been There - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 12:50 pm:
To show you how much I think of statistics I will bet you a beer that McCain wins the 13th district.
I’m feeling so lucky today that I think I will go against the odds and play the lottery, or go to the boats. Or maybe go to the card room in Hammond and go all in while hoping for an inside straight. All good bets.

- there he goes again - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 1:22 pm:
Schock’s on the defense in the 18th congressional district race. On the heels of the official misconduct charge he’s refusing to release his tax returns. Stay tuned.

- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 2:10 pm:
Do you think Callahan’s ad would be stronger if she tied in Schock getting wealthy on land deals the same time he was breaking the law to create tax shelters for his family?

- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 2:14 pm:
No.

It’s the lies and backtracking.

They had a theme going, but they didn’t follow through.

Such is life.

- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 2:20 pm:
The Halvorson polls are a joke. She is ahead, but not by the figures she is handing out.

- Mr. Dreamy Express - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 2:50 pm:
Sorry Rich the theme is still going.
Now the questions become was Mr. Dreamey on Daddy’s tax return and how much did the send offshore to shelter….Durbin is out raising money today so Mr. Dreamey may need more than Susana on the tube.
BTW the spot is not too well done and movst voters will not know who the heck is talking.

Didn’t she buy Mr. Dreamey a bday gift???? Is there more here???
I’ll run out and wait for the PJS story. Tee Hee

- Rob_N - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 5:58 pm:
Yep, selling nukes to Taiwan and escalating tensions with an emerging superpower sure sounds “poised and clear-eyed” to me.

And here the conservatives were all worried the Trib had gone over to the dark side. ;)

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