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Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race
Friday, Jan 30, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller * We have a new statewide poll from Research 2000. The poll was conducted 1/26-28 for Daily Kos, a Democratic website. R2K does good work, however, so don’t rule out these numbers. 600 likely voters. MoE +/-4% for the general election and +/-5% for party primary questions.
Lots of room for movement by anybody. As Dan Hynes found out during his 2004 US Senate bid, down-ballot constitutionals are just not well known in Illinois. That may help explain Giannoulias’s low showing. An Obama endorsement would help immeasurably, but we just don’t know yet what the big guy is gonna do. More…
Even-Steven favorable/unfavorable for Burris is not a good thing. * Now, onto the Republican primary…
And…
Quite high unfavorables for Kirk. Still, something to look at further. …Adding… Strange that more people have an opinion of Kirk than of Burris. * General election head-to-heads…
These are basic hardcore party ID numbers at this point, with Kirk doing a tiny bit better than Roskam on that front. But it goes to show you that even with the Blagojevich craziness, the uproar over the Burris appointment and the refusal to hold a special election, the Republicans have an uphill climb in this state.
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- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 11:42 am:
Very high unfavorable for Kirk. Strange.
I think Obama will stay out of a primary. I sure hope so. Illinois is nothing but trouble for him, and it would anger other incumbent Dems in the Senate. And if his hand-picked guy would lose, it makes him look weak. No upside.
- Bill S. Preston, Esq. - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 11:46 am:
Said this is the 100K post below, but isn’t it strange that JJJ wasn’t tested? Do people think he’s not going to run?
I can’t imagine that Schakowsky gets much traction outside of the Chicago area if she runs. She’s a lakefront, north shore, progressive liberal. A general with her in it would be interesting, but I don’t see how she gets through a primary.
Giannoulias is interesting. He can appeal to independent voters. Has lots of cash. Numbers aren’t terrible for him being in office only two years.
Just please, not Burris.
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 11:54 am:
I expect Obama will stay out of Illinois races, at least in public. He may offer organizational assistance to Alexi, but I don’t see him using political capital to affect races in a state he’ll win easily in 2012 (and that is likely to keep the Senate seat in Democratic hands regardless of the candidate).
Might he let Giannoulias use images of the two men together in ads? Possibly, but I can’t see a straight endorsement like the one Sheila Simon gave Obama when he ran for the Senate.
- inDUpage - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 11:56 am:
There is not enough information about the methodology or the internals of this poll to inform any judgement or analysis of what these numbers might mean. What is the breakdown of party self identification? From these numbers (and previous poll work done in 2008)and the sponsor of the poll, I would bet a large sum of stimulus cash that Dems were over sampled and independents were underrespresented. It’s too early for this type of speculation. My primary reason for skepticism is the strength of Schakowski. Nobody south of I-88 has any idea who she is.
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:00 pm:
Internals of the poll may be found here . 600 likely voters who have voted regularly in state elections. You can see breakdowns by party affiliation, region, and gender in the posted link.
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:00 pm:
Whoops, messed up the link. It’s now the URL for this post.
- GOP'er - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:11 pm:
I honestly don’t think either Kirk or Roskam has the guts to give up relatively safe seats in the House to take a big chance on a Senate bid. Their districts are gerrymandered “R” - the state can’t be.
The Illinois GOP has even less credibility than Blago. It’s heading straight for yet another disaster in 2010 under current management, and I don’t see either Roskam or Kirk doing anything about it. They’ve got their’s.
- Amy - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:19 pm:
my theory is that the Jan numbers are because she is a woman. no other reason. when callers hear about her very left record and the antics of her husband, the numbers will drop. while it may not seem fair to involve her husband’s problems in her political life, it will happen. and voters will not like it.
- Team America - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:38 pm:
GOP’er- how can you say Kirk’s district is gerrymandered “R”? It’s hugely liberal, and went for Obama in spades. Kirk’s personal appeal and independent voting record is what has saved him the last two times. Any other candidate in this race for the GOP, it’s a Dem seat easy.
If it’s now a “safe” district, that’s because of Kirk, not the way the district is drawn.
- Wumpus - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:57 pm:
How do people have a huge unfavorable for Kirk? And Roskam…something in me is waiting for soem odd scandal. I hope not, but my spider sense is tingling.
- Wumpus - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:58 pm:
VIola! I figured it out. Kirk’s unfavorables are high due to the Jack Roesser Repubs hating him as well as the extreme liberals.
- Angry Chicagoan - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 12:59 pm:
Those numbers for Jan Schakowsky are very, very good. I am concerned about the potential fallout from her husband’s past, though. I don’t think her liberal stances on the issues will be any problem whatsoever. “Husband served time for being a Chicago pol” is a lot more of a problem than “Congresswoman steered stimulus package as member of Dem leadership”
- Quinn T. Sential - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:03 pm:
{As Dan Hynes found out during his 2004 US Senate bid, down-ballot constitutionals are just not well known in Illinois. That may help explain Giannoulias’s low showing.}
What is the explanation for Schakowsky’s dismal showing against Burris then?
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:12 pm:
I wonder what Hynes’s numbers would look like? Probably in the ballpark with Alexi at this stage, for the reasons Rich mentioned.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:19 pm:
No surprises, actually.
- ConservativeVeteran - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:25 pm:
Team America, I agree, about Rep. Kirk’s district. The majority of the state legislators, in his district, are Democrats, including St. Sen. Terry Link, St. Sen. Susan Garrett, St. Sen. Jeffrey Schoenberg, St. Rep. Karen May, St. Rep. Kathleen Ryg, and St. Rep. Eddie Washington. Kirk wins because he’s more liberal than many Democrats. He’s pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control, pro-illegal alien, and anti-Iraq surge.
- Shore - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:38 pm:
1. What is the impact of redistricting going to have on Kirk and or roskam? Will this force either of their hands.
2. Roskam just made ways and means and Kirk will have his pick of ranking memberships next term with more gop retirements. That’s not as bad as being 14th on the education committee anda reason to stay.
3.I don’t see an Illinois Democrat White House letting itself get embarassed on the national stage by losing Obama’s seat in the first midterms.
4. The national GOP has a lot more endangered members and competitive open seats in 2010 than do the Democrats which will make resources to help win this seat a lot more scarce.
- inDUpage - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:39 pm:
My suspicion about the internals seems to be correct. The overpolled Dems by a good 5%. Outside of Obama v. Keyes, when was the last statewide election decided by more than 10 points?
Democrats 264 (44%)
Republicans 174 (29%)
Independents 162 (27%)
Also, Burris is drawing half the black vote with nearly 45% of that cohort undecided. His support is not widespread. Given this info, I’m actually optimistic. As for Kirk, his district will probably be redrawn and he’ll be looking for a new gig. If these numbers are his baseline, I’d say he’s got a good shot.
- GOP'er - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:39 pm:
Team America, that Kirk district certainly is gerrymandered “R” - or at least as much as it can be under the circumstances. You’re right, there are liberal strongholds there, and the district is becoming increasingly so. But they’ve done what they could to help Kirk, given the geography.
Recall for example when Kirk’s political Godfather Denny Hastert got together with Democrat Congressman Lipinski (the old man) for the last remap. The 2 divided up the spoils and they did their best to allow ALL the incumbents to choose their voters. I specifically remember that some stronger R areas (from Cook I believe) were carved into Kirk’s district to give him some extra cushion.
Granted, the Republicans are losing ground in that district just like in much of the state, but the powers-that-be certainly tried to give Kirk as much help as they could on the map front.
- Rocket - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:42 pm:
If the Dems want to keep the seat, then they better get rid of Burris, he is toxic. otherwise an R will win for sure. Alexi has the most upside of any Dem. He is the rising star of the party, and would restore Illinois’s national image in the post Burris/Blago era.
- chip - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:44 pm:
Agree with Wumpus– not about the potential for a Roskam scandal (really, Wumpus?)–that Kirk is a true centrist, and isn’t winning over the extremes on either side. That’s something that none of the dem candidates–or Roskam for that matter– can claim. Best the GOP can hope for is a clean, all-smiles primary while the dems remind the state what happened yesterday.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:47 pm:
@inDUpage, those ID numbers for Democrats are about right, considering other polls I’ve seen lately.
The January statewide Glengariff Group poll, for instance, had self-identified Dems at 44.7 percent, Repubs at 18.8 percent and Independents at 30.7 percent. December’s poll was close to those numbers.
So, it’s possible that R2K oversampled Republicans, if anything.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 1:48 pm:
===Also, Burris is drawing half the black vote with nearly 45% of that cohort undecided. His support is not widespread. Given this info, I’m actually optimistic.===
Don’t be. African-American voters traditionally break very late.
- inDUpage - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:18 pm:
Rich -
Thanks for the history…beg to differ on the Burris support. If he can’t draw better than 50% from the AA cohort out of the gate, he’s toast.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:22 pm:
@inDUpage, you’re just dead wrong. He’s doing much better with black voters at this point than Barack Obama did when he ran for US Senate. Black voters break late. Always. Look at Carol Mosely-Braun’s numbers from her reelection. Same thing.
- Will County - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:37 pm:
Kirk could be an interesting statewide candidate. Moderate. Great suburban record. Military service. Proven he can win in a blue leading district. He could be very formidable if the state GOP gets its act together and prevents a repeat of the 1996 Kustra/Salvi debacle.
- Shore - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:39 pm:
GOP’er you are right, at the time Kirk was an endangered incumbent and they thought Phil Crane could take some of theliberal parts of the far northern end of the district.
The 10th is voting more democratic these days because the republican party is appealing to lower class values voters rather than the educated professionals that dominate our area and aren’t really interested in god, guns and gays.
- Bubs - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:41 pm:
The GOP numbers in this state will remain bad until they come up with a new and relevant message. Opportunity is staring the Illinois GOP in the face, but it’s a question of talent, leadership and skill. Bits and pices of all three elements are out there. But can it all be put together and be more than the sum of its parts? Only time will tell, and there is not a whole lot of that.
A good staring point might be the realization that this is Illinois, not South Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Texas, or Alaska.
But the local GOP cannot halt the steady drift of the national GOP into a minority regional party. It is hurting them in this state, big-time.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:47 pm:
“Outside of Obama v. Keyes, when was the last statewide election decided by more than 10 points?”
Err- all of Durbin’s elections, all of White’s, all of Hynes’. Madigan’s re-elect in 2006. Hell, even Blago’s re-elect.
Really, wins by more than 10% are pretty common.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:53 pm:
Also, Topinka’ re-elect in 2002.
Since 2000, there’s only been two or three races decided by LESS than 10%.
- ConservativeVeteran - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 2:53 pm:
Republicans should nominate a conservative. In 2006, then-Treasurer Topinka was moderate. She won her primary, but, in the general election, she got 38%. A republican politician, I know, said that Dr. Sauerberg is so liberal, he should have run as a Democrat. Sauerberg won his primary, but, in the general election, he got 33%. Alan Keyes is conservative, but he came from another state, for his campaign. Peter Fitzgerald was a conservative state senator, and he defeated an incumbent U.S. senator. Republicans should nominate another conservative, who is similar to Fitzgerald.
- get real - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:01 pm:
all the “polls” that Daily Kos has done with Mark Kirk have been wrong. They showed Mark Kirk losing to Dan Seals and instead Kirk won huge. Based on this, it looks like Mark Kirk will be the next senator for the State of Illinois.
I am not sure how anyone, Dem, Republican, or Indy believes anything these people print. They are strictly propaganda
- VoterUSA - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:04 pm:
Whatever you want to say about Burris, he is clean and has won 4 state wide races. I’m sure Burris will do a good job as Senator, and win in 2010.
- anon - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:06 pm:
I hope their track record of inaccuracy continues. Based on DailyKos’ polls just this Septenber and October that had Congressman Kirk losing re-election to Dan Seals, I don’t see how anyone could take them seriously. I am actually encouraged by their misinformation propaganda campaign.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:07 pm:
“I am not sure how anyone, Dem, Republican, or Indy believes anything these people print. They are strictly propaganda ”
They had polls that showed Kirk winning, too, and other polling outfits (SUSA, for one) showed Seals taking it, too.
Also, DKos didn’t “do” this poll or any other- R2k did, and they’re fairly well-respected, and predictive often enough.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:10 pm:
“Based on DailyKos’ polls just this Septenber and October that had Congressman Kirk losing re-election”
Just to clarify (I think my above post was a little obtuse) this isn’t true, the R2K September poll showed Kirk ahead.
- R_K - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:16 pm:
I’m a little skeptical about those numbers. More people have an opinion about Kirk than do Burris? Plus, didn’t Kos do a whole bunch of polls about Kirk that were way off? I have to wonder whether this is just a ploy to scare off strong Republicans. Given the source, I wouldn’t be surprised.
- get real - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:16 pm:
when was the last time Roland Burris actually won anything? 15 years ago… PLEASE… Rod Blagojevich’s senate appointee will be going somewhere in 2010, but it won’t be back to his pay to play Senate gig.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:24 pm:
“More people have an opinion about Kirk than do Burris? ”
I think that’s possible. Kirk was ubiquitous in the Chicago media market during the campaign (and has done a decent job staying visible since then, too), while Burris hadn’t been heard from in a decade and may have competing impulses (Blago appointment vs. no personal corruption) pushing respondents away from both a positive and negative opinion.
“Plus, didn’t Kos do a whole bunch of polls about Kirk that were way off?”
No, Kos didn’t do any polls. R2K did a poll that had Seals in the lead (as did SUSA), but they also did a poll that had Kirk in the lead.
- VoterUSA - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:25 pm:
There is no way Illinois is going GOP in 2010… The GOP has no ideas or leadership, and If Obama does good between now and then it won’t even be close.
GOP = Grand ol Party, and that is what people see.
- get real - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:37 pm:
Voter USA: what are the Blagojevich/Burris/ILL DEM ideas and leadership? The entire state knew the Gov was corrupt and what did they do about it?
- Adam Smith - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:39 pm:
Kos doesn’t do anything without a partisan purpose. He and his cohorts know that this seat is in play and they would prefer to see a weaker candidate in the race on the GOP side.
Simply put, numbers at this point are useless except for political junkies.
Here are a couple of facts:
Burris is a weak candidate. That’s not to say he can’t win a primary or the general.
Kirk is a strong candidate. It’s an uphill climb for any “R” but he is battle-tested, can raise tons of $$$ and can appeal to moderate suburbanites.
The right wing nuts hate Kirk and the Dems are scared of him. Two things that indicate how strong he looks.
- SearsTower - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:45 pm:
Remember, Schakowsky’s husband was convicted of two federal felonies and one of the felonies was for avoiding income tax on a tax return cosigned by the Congresswoman herself. Rahm moved against her decisively when she ran for congressional leadership and could be counted on to sink her in the national press if she was in danger of becoming a fatally wounded nominee.
- 10th Indy - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 3:59 pm:
Not sure the Dems should be excited to have Kirk only 6-8% behind all the dem hopefuls at this point. Kirk is proven campaigner who can rake in cash and will be able to hit dems on tax increases that are surely coming, a worsening illinois economy and the Blago trial.
- Bri - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:20 pm:
Forgive me for having a difficult time believing anything from DailyKos. If it were up to them, we’d have Cong. Laesch.
The name recognition advantage for Kirk over Burris is tough to buy because Burris has run statewide at least 4 times AND was just the lead story for a week in the NATIONAL news.
Kirk has demonstrated that he can win decisively in tough years and raise lots of money. He will play well in the suburbs- the place where any successful Republican must perform well. Finally, the media likes him and he is not at all tainted, unlike Alexi or Burris.
- Gob Bluth - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:25 pm:
I’m sorry, but these numbers seem a bit fishy and in some instances plain over the top. I know we all want to jump all over them and make prognostications about what they mean, but this is much a do about nothing IMHO.
Another reason not to jump on these numbers is the plain and undeniable fact that this poll was sponsored by the Daily Kos (and yes, the Daily Kos was the sponsor of the Kirk poll that had him losing by 6 to Dan Seals, which then led to some arm-chair-quarterbacks on this blog to pronounce Kirk all but dead).
C’mon people, the Daily Kos folks only get out of bed each morning b/c they love bashing the GOP. They cannot be seen as a independent actor and thus any numbers will be viewed as partisan.
My take, If I were Kirk, I’d look at the this poll and take stock in the fact that the Daily Kos and the Dems are already worried. They are trying to set the stage for early campaign funding calls that have already started with an eye on this race.
If Kirk enters the race and is pitted against any Dems mentioned in the poll and only had to make up a 4-6 points, I’d put my money on him to beat any of the them.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:32 pm:
“Forgive me for having a difficult time believing anything from DailyKos.”
Irrelevant, as these numbers are from R2K, but okay, you’re forgiven.
“The name recognition advantage for Kirk over Burris is tough to buy because Burris has run statewide at least 4 times AND was just the lead story for a week in the NATIONAL news.”
Burris hasn’t held office for over a decade. Kirk had been all over Chicago media since August. And Burris’ cross currents- no personal corruption, but Blago ties- could push a lot of people into “no opinion” territory.
“Not sure the Dems should be excited to have Kirk only 6-8% behind all the dem hopefuls at this point. ”
Neither am I, but given how many people are trying to spin these numbers and sing the praises of Mark Kirk, it’s clear the Republicans aren’t seeing much hope here, either (Especially if their number one issue is completely hypothetical tax hikes).
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:35 pm:
“The entire state knew the Gov was corrupt and what did they do about it? ”
Well, they just impeached him, for one thing.
- The Pug is on the Prowl - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:36 pm:
Yea, this whole thing seems a bit odd. I defy anyone to raise the money Cong. Kirk will raise. Additionally if elections are about message and candidate, his current district is a pretty good cross-section of the bulk of the voters in Illinois, and he seems to be pretty well liked. And if that’s not enough, the Daily KOS can’t even manipulate their numbers enough to do damage to Mark Kirk. Mark Kirk represents everything that is right about politics in this country…PLEASE RUN!!!
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:39 pm:
===Another reason not to jump on these numbers===
Look, we run quite a few candidate-sponsored polls here. They’re all identified. But R2K is a decent outfit, and Kirk’s own people were worried sick the week before the election. It wasn’t just R2K that showed serious movement by the Democrat there. That election was won in the last weekend.
So, if you’re suggesting that the poll is pure propaganda, I would suggest you reconsider.
To this point, every objection to other numbers on this poll, trends, etc. have been rebutted, even refuted. Simple partisan spins are also easily rebutted by calling them out for what they are.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:40 pm:
===Well, they just impeached him, for one thing. ===
Actually, no. The GA just did what the voters were unwilling to do in 2006.
- downstater - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:41 pm:
I hope the dems run with Burris. He is definatelly beatable by someone as moderate as Kirk. I love the GOP’s chances. Remember history of mid-term elections for new Presidents. If economy is still in the dumper Kirk romps. Well know prognosticator Charlie Cook rates it a toss-up and he’s a lot less partisan than Kos.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:50 pm:
“Actually, no. The GA just did what the voters were unwilling to do in 2006. ”
Fair enough- I was kinda just being snide.
- Shore - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:56 pm:
Can someone please explain to me how Rahm Emanuel who ran the best democratic congressional campaign in a generation and David Axelrod who ran an $800 million enterprise that beat the clintons and the gop, will lose this seat to a party that can’t gain traction against a former Governor with a 7% approval rating?
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 4:57 pm:
“I defy anyone to raise the money Cong. Kirk will raise. ”
You really think an IL Dem is gonna get outspent in the age of Obama?
Look, Kirk is still the front runner in my mind, but the more people talk him up in reaction to this poll, the more desperate it seems.
- colby - Friday, Jan 30, 09 @ 5:02 pm:
“Can someone please explain to me how Rahm Emanuel who ran the best democratic congressional campaign in a generation and David Axelrod who ran an $800 million enterprise that beat the clintons and the gop, will lose this seat to a party that can’t gain traction against a former Governor with a 7% approval rating? ”
Two reasons:
1) To quote the West Wing, “It helps when you cook with the right ingredients”. Rahm had a national anti-Republican wave and dozens of compelling candidates, Ax had Barack Obama. Ain’t none of the possible Democratic nominees another Obama, and I doubt there’s going to be another wave.
2) Distraction. Rahm and Ax are both going to be focused on keeping the Obama White House strong, and if they take their eyes off of that, it’s only going to be to preserve the Democratic Congressional majorities, not to focus on a single Senate Seat (unless, of course, that seat becomes integral to holding on to the majorities, but with a 9-seat advantage and four-plus Republican retirements, that’s not really likely).