* My Sun-Times column today takes a look at the 5th Congressional District race. You only get 600 words in the CS-T, so it’s not as complete as I would’ve liked…
Almost nobody wants to make a prediction about the 5th Congressional District special election this coming Tuesday.
A crowded field, very high numbers of undecided voters, a lack of news coverage (particularly by the TV stations) and the fact that none of the candidates has really caught fire all add up to puzzlement for handicappers.
The guesstimates I’m getting from the campaigns have Democratic turnout at between 35,000 and 40,000 — about a quarter to a third of those who voted in the last primary. Somebody could win with as few as 10 thousand or 12 thousand votes. So you can make a case for any number of candidates.
Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley started the race way ahead in the polls, and he’s still at or near the top. That means he’ll do well with people who believe it’s their duty to vote in every election but are still vague about their final choice. He has a loyal cadre of workers, and his campaign believes they have identified more than enough supporters to win. They just have to get them to the polls.
State Rep. Sara Feigenholtz has spent the most money by far, both on her own and through huge independent expenditures on her behalf by the Service Employees International Union and EMILY’s List. Women often tend to vote for women, and women dominate Democratic primaries. Feigenholtz’s campaign has been almost purely targeted at female voters, so she’ll get lots of votes from undecided women. Feigenholtz also has a big field operation and enthusiastic support in the gay community.
Like Quigley and Feigenholtz, state Rep. John Fritchey’s base is in the eastern end of the district near the lake. But Fritchey also has the backing of ward and township organizations that control more than half the precincts in the district. Yeah, the Machine ain’t what it used to be, and there are still questions about how hard some of these committeemen want to work, but the reality is that if each of his precinct captains secures 30 to 50 voters, then Fritchey wins this thing.
I’m not posting the whole thing because we’ve got other stuff to post, so go read it all here.
* Let’s get back to the new Feigenholtz TV ad that set off a firestorm in comments today.
Last year, any Democratic legislative candidate who was directly tied to either Rod Blagojevich or Todd Stroger was toast. The Republicans played the Rod & Todd card in several races, but it didn’t work all that well unless there was a definable connection, like fundraising, jobs or contracts.
So, any TV ad that draws a direct line between a candidate and Stroger is potentially a deal-breaker for voters. That’s one reason why this thing has caused such an uproar.
With that in mind, let’s watch it again…
Does it work? Remember, though, that Quigley has been running a TV ad and direct mail trashing Todd Stroger, most likely in an attempt to inoculate himself from just such an attack.
The Quigley campaign estimates that Feigenholtz only has 270 ratings points behind this latest attack, spread out over last night, through the weekend and part of Tuesday. That ain’t much.
But Quigley did go all-out today in an attempt to turn the tables…
QUIGLEY: This is Sara Nixon. The 11th hour, when its much harder to combat an unfair charge, that’s when you do this, because you know there’s limited ability — frankly, there’s been limited coverage of this campaign and there’s limited interest, just because it’s a special election. So that’s hard to overcome.
This is a swift boat attack. You attack somebody at their greatest strength and you do it at the last hour because you know its much tougher to retaliate and defend yourself.
Then again, this morning’s presser might just bring far more attention to the whole thing.
* Meanwhile, Pat O’Connor has raised a few more dollars, but he’s still close to the bottom and a mailer has gotten him into a spot of trouble…
Is Mayor Daley’s “unofficial floor leader” claiming “unofficial endorsements” from Rahm Emanuel and Sen. Dick Durbin?
No, no, no, Ald. Patrick O’Connor (40th) is not trying to imply any endorsement by Durbin or Emanuel — the man he hopes to replace in Congress — by running their photos and testimonials in his campaign literature, a spokesman said.
According to the above article, Emanuel’s office also denies that it’s endorsing Rep. Feigenholtz, even though there’s a Feigenholtz yard sign in front of the guy’s house. Still, that certainly sends a message to the neighborhood, if nothing else.
* Related…
* Every Vote Counts in Crowded Primary for Emanuel’s House Seat
* The (Jan) Donatelli Interview
* The (John) Fritchey Interview
* Conason Backs Geoghegan, Forys Loans Himself $40K