The Capitol Fax Blog » Question of the day

Tuesday, Mar 3, 2009

* Here are a few stories about Sen. Bill Brady’s campaign kickoff…

* State Sen. Bill Brady launches bid for governor

* Brady: ‘Read my lips,’ I won’t raise taxes as governor

* Brady says taxes are key in his bid for governor

* Brady’s arrival in Twin Cities well-received after state tour

* Possibly a Good Republican State Ticket Abuilding (Cross My Fingers).

* Got a call from Bill Brady today…

Go take a look at them and then, of course, come back.

* The Question: How would you rate the rollout so far? Also, how do you rate Brady’s chances in a GOP primary and the general?

- posted by Rich Miller

43 Comments

- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 11:41 am:
If Brady has a scheme for addressing Illinois’ deficits without raising taxes, may I suggest he share it now rather than wait until the taxes are raised.

- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 11:42 am:
Stick to the question, please.

- Deep South - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 11:48 am:
Of course, at this moment, Brady’s chances in the primary are very good, since he’s the only candidate to announce.
With that in mind, his chances in the general may depend on how Quinn, and the legislature, tackle this year’s budget issues. Quinn could easily be the front runner, or he could be in the tank. Depends what happens over the next several months. If Quinn ain’t the frontrunner, lotsa Dems will be in the primary. In that case, their success in the general may depend on how badly they beat themselves up. If that should happen, I’d say the general will be a toss up.

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 11:50 am:
Barring another major conservative entering the race, I think Brady has a great shot at becoming the Republican nominee.

Barring a major meltdown on the Democratic side of the ticket, I think Brady has no chance of winning the General election.

The last GOP conservative to win the Governor’s mansion was Dwight Green. Remember him?

Hint: it was over 50 years ago.

In my opinion, the GOP has their ticket bassackwards.

They should be running a Conservative for U.S. Senate and a Moderate for Governor.

If Tom Cross didn’t have his own eye on the Governor’s mansion, he would have recruited Vallas to run on the GOP ticket for Governor.

Vallas’ campaign slogan would’ve been simple:

“I told you so.”

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 11:52 am:
=== Stick to the question, please. ===

I’ll give Carl credit for this: Cullerton should loudly and publicly invite Brady to trstify before the special committee on budget cuts.

- John Bambenek - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 11:59 am:
Brady isn’t the only candidate to announce for governor, wasn’t even the first. See Adam Andrzejewski at adamforillinois.com

Vallas for governor? W
What is this fascination with finding Dems who can’t win in Dem primaries, who will run on Dem issues and slapping an R on them and calling it a inning strategy? If you want a dem so badly, just vote for one.

- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 11:59 am:
By the time Illinois voters go to the polls to elect a governor next year, they may already be paying higher taxes.

Although he is making a blatantly unworkable promise, it is a promise making him news. And as noted above - the fact remains that by the time of the election - he would be on record for this statement at a time when voters will be paying more for a crappy state government.

But this shouldn’t be enough. The issue next year will not be smaller government, or cheaper government - the issue will be better government. Quinn will be making that claim too. So Brady better start figuring out how to trump Quinn’s presentation because that will be where the public’s interest will lie.

How do I rate Brady’s chances to win the nomination? That will depend on how strong Quinn will look by the GOP primary date. If Quinn looks strong, Brady can win. Why? Because the big dogs with real money will sit this out if Quinn looks like a shoe-in. The GOP will give it to Brady if they don’t think they can beat Quinn.

But if Quinn looks beatable - expect Ron Gidwitz to be the nominee, and to be an excellent candidate.

Chicago will trump Bloomington, even in the GOP.

- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:00 pm:
By saying he will roll back past and future tax increases, he’s setting himself up to look like he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

The press, his primary opponents, and (if he makes it that far) his Dem opponents will be able to use his quotes to paint him as someone who has no clue as to what is happening with the state budget.

- OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:03 pm:
Have to admit I didn’t mind the call, it’s a small way of showing the party folks on the ground a little respect. At least that seemed like a smart move. Usually when someone lets you know they are running it includes a donation form.

- wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:08 pm:
I think the rollout has been silly “Read my lips…,” are you kidding me? He adopts the language of one of the most infamous broken political promises of the last 20 years. What’s next? I didn’t inhale?

In a three-way race with Birkett and Whitley, I think he has a good chance to finish third. The “conservative values” GOP is a paper tiger in Illinois — lot of roar, no teeth.

He has zero chance of beating a Democrat. Where would he find the votes to offset the pounding he would take in Cook? Not in the collars, where he would be lucky to break even given the changes taking place there.

And I think he has an obligation to introduce his deficit reduction plan in bill form. He is a state senator, after all.

- Cassandra - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:10 pm:
Has anybody in greater Chicagoland ever heard of him (or, after the 2006 debacle, does anyone up here remember him beyond a vague memory of the name). And even if Downstate voted for him en masse in November 2010 would that be enough to beat an even moderately well known Democrat. Somehow, I doubt it, but maybe if he made a decent showing the Republicans would feel better. They need to do a lot more than feel better to regain any significant influence, though. Perhaps they (and we, as I certainly don’t want to live in a one-party state) should be grateful he is trying.

- BloomingtonDem - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:11 pm:
The rollout is going good for Brady because he went first so he’s getting a lot more press for it. I’m a little surprised that he didn’t start in Bloomington and go from there.

I’d say that if Quinn raises taxes, which seems likely to overcome the fiscal mess we’re in, Brady’s anti-tax pledge will likely win the GOP Primary.

With the Blago/Burris mess, I think the Democrats are going to have a very hard election in 2010 (no surprise). But, the Chicago vote, and scattered downstate Democratic counties, will keep the election in the hands of the Democrats. The exception to this: a strong Green party candidate. If 300,000 votes are pulled from the Democrats as protest votes, it could allow a Republican to win. They haven’t really been a factor in any elections yet, but there’s a first for everything. You know those young idealistic voters that turned out to elect Obama? If they vote in 2010, they may just vote Green for gov.

- Vote Quimby! - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:11 pm:
I wish him well, but since he didn’t come to the 2nd-largest metro area in Illinois (by St. Louis) we didn’t hear of him. Of course, not many Repubs here…

- Vote Quimby! - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:13 pm:
==If they vote in 2010, they may just vote Green==
Or be worn out by all the ‘changing’ and stay home…

- Capitol View - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:19 pm:
Illinois is a high tax state? We ahve one of the lowest income tax rates in the country, which is why state government is broke and propoerty taxes for education are so high.

The Democrats can only hope that someone as clueless and a conservative zealot as Brady wins the nomination for the Republicans. Brady will come in third behind the Green Party.

- Stick a fork in - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:23 pm:
Bill Brady’s going nowhere. I don’t know why anyone would trust him on anything after he just bailed on direct elections, something he said he supported for years.

Reports I heard said it was low attendance and low energy at all of his stops yesterday. I think Republicans are tired of the failed retreads.

Besides, what’s the guy really led on in his current job? I don’t think I’ve even ever seen a letter to the editor from this guy. But now he’s going to pretend he’s got all the answers for solving the state’s problems?

Next!

- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:28 pm:
Bill Brady is a good man, although he and I don’t agree on several issues. I don’t doubt for a second his heartfelt committment to the things he talks about in his kickoff. I have heard him speak movingly about his pro-life position and his reasons, and though I don’t agree with him, I don’t doubt his beliefs. He would make a good governor, though on social values he is to the right of the average Illinoisan.

I fear he simply can’t do the things he talks about; fund Illinois state government and a capital program without tax increases. Some of his ideas won’t get done and others will by the nature of government not generate the savings he hopes for.

He is thoughtful about the role of government and a dedicated legislator. Some of his proposals for savings are good, I think, and can generate substantial savings. At this point I think his chances in the primary are good, but its a long time ’til the primary. Who knows what will happen? Key will be how many people from which wings of the party are in.

- Louis G. Atsaves - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:36 pm:
Sticking strictly to your question I would rate it a C+. He made all the right moves (I also got a telephone robocall with the announcement) and said all the “right” things that a candidate needs to say (stressing the word “candidate” here). He did the professional looking fly around.

He got the MSM press he was looking for.

But it is too early. He won’t scare anyone off from running against him. His pledges and stands will be more carefully reviewed later on, not now.

Doug Whitley is already making the rounds distributing literature that says Whitley for Governor. Another minor candidate announced. More will come knocking at least.

For all you clamoring for tax increases to fix Illinois’ long neglected finances, my door to door campaigning for some local candidates these past two weeks has come up with ZERO support for gas tax increases, ZERO support for sales tax increases, ZERO support for property tax increases and ZERO support for a State Income Tax Increase. On the Federal Level I get the same ZERO support. And this is on the North Shore. The “let the rich pay more in taxes” sounds nice to them, but no one considers themselves in that category. When I run across someone willing to fork over more cash to government, I’ll let everyone know. On the other hand, they all want more government services without paying additional for it.

- Ghost - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:42 pm:
This kickoff looks like a similiar campaign a few years back for a man with a funny last name, a man who promised tonever raise our taxes; a man who left us in a budget mess.

Too Blgoesque IMHO. I was hoping for more substance then a read my lips no new taxes republican.

- Question One - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:42 pm:
Bill Brady’s been a State Senator for years. Before that he was a State Rep.

Where are his plans and proposals where he tried to advance what he talked about yesterday? Granted, much of that time maybe he was in the minority caucus, but so what? He’s had a real platform, that few do.

What has he been doing up until now? Has he been a leader on issues and reform, or has he been sitting around the poker table in Springpatch playing cards and downing brews with the boys, like so many of the card-punchers do?

Anyone can throw mud at Blago and the Dems. That’s easy. A 3rd Grader can do that. Brady, like many of his colleagues, has done a lot of that easy activity.

But what real change has he actually worked on?

- scoot - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:50 pm:
It’s DOA. Brady was a far distant third in the 06 primary…and really hasn’t done anything since, other then backing Fred Thompson for Prez. In a primary I see the same results..two conservatives splitting the vote & a moderate getting the nod.

What I’m saying is that Brady isn’t entitled to the nomination. He would get beat badly in the general election, mainly becasue he has no outreach to “I” or moderates.

He’s more of a local candidate and running for Congress would fit him better then statewide.

- 2010 - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:57 pm:
Brady needs to move to the center if he’s going to take this state. At this time, he can not win Cook suburbs or Lake County period. Numbers, it’s all about the numbers, and they have changed dramatically in the last decade. Crunch, crunch, crunch…

- carbon deforestation - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 1:22 pm:
I would rate the Brady rollout a B-. He can’t honestly expect to do much better than this because none of the Chicago media care about him one bit.

I see a different 3-way primary: Whitley & Bruce Rauner as the pro-business “moderates” and Brady. Perhaps Burkett sees the writing on the wall in this race, decides he doesn’t want to be the next Oberweis so he decides to run for AG or another post instead.

I see Whitley going nowhere. If Rauner runs and put his money behind his campaign, he could win the GOP Primary. Of course that sort of split could favor Brady too. Brady has potential, I was just disappointed by so many things he did wrong last time around.

If he wins the GOP primary, he won’t break 39% in a general.

- ConservativeVeteran - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 1:35 pm:
His rollout is okay. Since he received about 18%, in the 2006 primary, I think that he’ll receive 15%-20%, in the ‘10 primary.

- wow - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 1:42 pm:
I hope he wins the primary after that goof ball comment about always wanting to “live in public housing”….I am sure that will go far with the public as home forclosures are at an alltime high.

- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 1:58 pm:
Illinois is a high tax state? We ahve one of the lowest income tax rates in the country, which is why state government is broke and propoerty taxes for education are so high.

Yes, Illinois is a high tax state, even when considering it’s income tax rate. We’re that screwed up. The solution is not raising the income tax. It is reducing or eliminating the other taxes preventing our state economy from attracting businesses and growing our economy. Because we are a high tax state.

That’s why we suck!

- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 2:05 pm:
No, VM, Illinois isn’t a high tax state. Nothing you can say will make that so. It just isn’t true. But, its an issue that resonates (see how strongly you believe it?) and its one we’ve seen Governor’s run on with success in the past.

- GOPvotecounter - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 2:08 pm:
If things stay as they are he can win, because he is the only one in! He has no money, no support from the base, and no name recognition in the chicagoland area. He is not trusted by the grassroots and is widely though of as someone who worked with the Celini/ Kejellander cabal to split the conservative vote last time. Not only the rank and file but the leaders seem to think so.
Someone who tried to attend the Brady rally in Bloomington wrote this to me
“For the scheduled 6 PM announcement I arrived at 5:50 and stayed to about 6:15. A young, heavy set guy was just putting up a sign saying that Brady’s appearance was delayed til 7 PM. When I arrived at 5:50 there were about 5 people there. By 6:15 there were about 12 people there. There was a flimsy card table set up at which a lady I recognize from Brady’s office had a cardfile box. No laptop. No Blackberry, no iphone visible. There was no literature. No handout to the press. Maybe they were holding that back until 7 PM. I saw no reason to stick around. I had nothing constructive to say to his few supporters who were there and saw no reason to rain on their parade … more than was already happening.”

Maybe it got better @ 7:00

- Moderate REpub - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 2:08 pm:
Capitol View - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 12:19 pm:

“Illinois is a high tax state? We ahve one of the lowest income tax rates in the country,”

No its not. We are at 3%. Three of our neighbors are lower; Kentucky, Missouri, and Iowa, not to mention the rest of the country.

Property taxes, we are 6th in the country per capita, and 10th per household.

As to Brady, right now he has a chance to get the Republican nomination. Everyone keeps saying “illinois is sick of the Democrats running governemnt”. This may be true, but if they see Obama on TV endorsing whomever the Democrat canidate is, no one on the republican ticket has a chance.

- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 2:09 pm:
===Three of our neighbors are lower; Kentucky, Missouri, and Iowa,===

You wanna live in one of those states? Seriously?

Let’s stick to the question please.

- Moderate REpub - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 2:11 pm:
As to Brady, right now he has a chance to get the Republican nomination. Everyone keeps saying “illinois is sick of the Democrats running government”. This may be true, but if they see Obama on TV endorsing whomever the Democrat canidate is, no one on the republican ticket has a chance.

I am saying this with the caveat that Obama is still hovering at his current level in opinion polls at the tiem of the election.

- EmptySuitParade - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 2:57 pm:
Brady has been brilliant. I believe StateWideTom will abandon his campaign post haste. Same goes for Whitley.
Republicans don’t care about those %&*%%*( general elections

- Jim - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 4:35 pm:
We have been subjected to all this garbage about a race no one cares about for how long now? And now we are hearing a real shocker - turnout sucks.

Let me reiterate - no one cares.

- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 4:58 pm:
Hey, Jim. I got news for you, pal. Nobody cares about your incessant whining about covering a congressional race where you don’t live.

Get over yourself or go away.

- thirdgenerationchicagonative - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 4:58 pm:
Does a downstate conservative GOP, anti abortion but pro death sentence, thinks it’s ok to carry concealed weapons? He won’t get the CC Sheriffs police, the Chicago Police vote on the concealed weapons. No new taxes? He is going to cut the debt in half on the gas tax revenue alone. He won’t get many votes from the North.

- grand old partisan - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 5:02 pm:
YDD - “Barring a major meltdown on the Democratic side of the ticket…”

Um, hasn’t that already happened? You’ve got a sitting “accidental” Governor looking down the barrel of the Speaker’s Daughter, a Senate race that will be all about race, and in suburban Cook, you’ll have Stroger backlash leading the GOP ticket. Anyone who doesn’t think that almost any GOP nominee doesn’t have a good chance in 2010 is either crazy or in denial.

That all being said - and getting back to the question at hand - Brady reminds me of Romney (who I supported in 2008): he’s got all the right credentials, but has made just enough detractors in various factions of his base to cause him major problems.

I think it’s almost impossible to guess his chances without knowing who else is in. I agree that if he remains the only conservative, he wins the primary - and also has an even better shot at the general because he won’t have to outflank anyone on the right and scare the independents/soft Dems.

- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 5:07 pm:
===Anyone who doesn’t think that almost any GOP nominee doesn’t have a good chance in 2010 is either crazy or in denial.===

What the GOP has yet to show in this state is that they can be a viable alternative to voters. So, the GOPs have a better shot than last time, but the question remains about whether it’s enough. And if the Repubs alienate suburban women again, they have no shot.

- Just a Downstater - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 5:10 pm:
I only saw the video from the Sfld stop, but I thought the set up was weak. Bad lighting, no mult box, etc. Since all of the tv stations will use this footage until new footage from the State Fair, I thought they should have done a better job of advance/productio. I’d say it was well lit for radio.

- IDOT Traffic Safety Worker - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 6:03 pm:
I thought yesterday’s event was fairly successful, and I’d say he has a decent shot at the GOP nod and a far tougher (but not insurmountable) chance in the general. Twenty months can be a lifetime in politics!

Brady came across as a (the?) nice conservative in the last primary, and the only one with any sense, since it wasn’t he who came up with the idea that the true conservatives should draw straws to see who should stay in the race against JBT.

I thought he had good timing, too. Pretty soon about all of the focus will be on the Dems’ side, and he made headlines with his “no new taxes” pledge right before the GA gets set to push a tax hike.

- ZNorm - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 6:10 pm:
Of all the states with income taxes, Illinois’ is the lowest in the nation. The border states Moderate REpub mentions all have graduated rates that are double or more than Illinois for taxpayers with a real income. There’s a nice chart at http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/ind_inc.html

- BarryGoldwater - Tuesday, Mar 3, 09 @ 10:00 pm:
Senator Brady will not only win the GOP Primary but will win the General in 2010. He is fiscally conservative. No new taxes are not just a pledge, it’s his political ideaology. He has preached it his entire political life. Yes, he did fall short in his bid for Gov. in 2006. So What!Abraham Lincoln lost more races than he ever won.

- reformer - Wednesday, Mar 4, 09 @ 11:51 am:
Sorry, Bill will lose when he pairs up with the “Queen of pay-to-play of Kane County”. As Lt. Gov. it will be the old boy’s club all over again. Bill will get ran over.

- mover631 - Wednesday, Mar 4, 09 @ 2:41 pm:
How can he win??? Just because your the first one in dosn’t mean squat! He was first in last time he got a lot of free pub from the Tribune because Oberweis was in the race and the Tribune would do almost anything to stop Oberweis from winning anything. Brady was the benifactor in the primary of that hate. You can’t win if you have no money! It is that simple. Brady has no ground forces as you can see by his roll out. He will not have the prolife profamily workers since he got them angry last time and they are still angry for being lied to. he is still $650,000 in dept from last time I hear. How do you run and win?? He is the first there will probably be 3 candidates, Brady comes in third.

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