The Capitol Fax Blog » This just in…

Thursday, Apr 30, 2009

* 1:50 pm - The Public Policy Polling survey we had here yesterday was of likely Democratic primary voters. But today’s PPP poll is of 991 Illinois voters. The poll was taken April 24-26 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1 percent. Crosstabs and other results can be found by clicking here.

Let’s look at the US Senate head-to heads first, since Lynn Sweet is reporting (and sources confirm) that “Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) is poised to jump in the 2010 Illinois Senate race”…

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Democrat Roland Burris and Republican Mark Kirk, who would you vote for?

19% Burris
53% Kirk
28% Undecided

Oof.

Then again, a Republican vegetable might be able to beat Burris at this point.

More realistic opponents…

33% Schakowsky
37% Kirk
30% Undecided

35% Giannoulias
35% Kirk
29% Undecided

The partisan breakdown of this poll is 45 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican and 25 percent independent, so Kirk is doing better than the partisan benchmark and both Giannoulias and Schakowsky are under-polling.

…Adding… From Politico…

Many Illinois voters are still unfamiliar with the leading candidates. Kirk’s favorability rating is 33 percent, with 24 percent viewing him unfavorably. A 43 percent plurality weren’t familiar with him.

And while Giannoulias holds a statewide office, he also isn’t well-known in the state – with 40 percent of voters unfamiliar with him. The state treasurer holds a 39 percent approval rating, with 21 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan does the best…

33% Kirk
49% Madigan
18% Undecided

* Now, onto the governor’s race…

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were Republican Bill Brady and Democrat Pat Quinn, who would you vote for?

32% Brady
39% Quinn
29% Undecided.

Man, that’s weak for Quinn.

27% Brady
46% Madigan
26% Undecided

Brady is getting 15 percent of the African-American vote in this survey, which could show weakness for Madigan, but it’s highly doubtful that Brady will get that many African-American votes come election day.

* Meanwhile, as we’ve noted before, Dan Proft is considering a run for governor, but I’m not quite sure what this press release means yet…

Cicero, Illinois… Dan Proft released the following statement today about his decision to step down as Cicero Town Spokesman effective May 1, 2009:

It is after much deliberation that I have come to the decision to leave the town. My decision is based entirely on an opportunity that has presented itself to pursue other professional endeavors. To highlight this point, I am not only leaving the town but I am also taking a leave from my firm, Urquhart Media, to take up the opportunity I referenced.

I may have more later today.

*** 3:20 pm *** Here’s your “more.” I’m hearing Proft is just about there. Decision will be announced soon.

- posted by Rich Miller

56 Comments

- Just Observing - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:09 pm:
Dan Proft is delusional if he thinks he can win a primary and general.

- siriusly - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:14 pm:
The Dan Proft saga is amusing.

Never in the history of public relations has a municipal spokesperson issued a press release to announce they are leaving the spokesman position.

He can now claim he is a precedent-setting achiever, as a spokesman.

- Capitol View - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:18 pm:
Bill Brady is another Far Right Republican. Surely there are more mainstream candidates that the Repubican State Central Committee can recruit.

The 2010 election is for the governor and legislture that will be redistricting prior to the 2012 election. Big stakes for weak candidates.

- 47th Ward - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:23 pm:
Rich,

If PPP does a poll of Republicans for primary races, will you please post that as well? I’m dying to see how that field is shaping up now that Proft appears ready to add his name to the mix.

- scoot - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:23 pm:
These are great numbers for Kirk!! I was hoping he would run for Guv, but the Senate is fine with me.

I would say that Birkett/Gidwitz/Schillerstrom have to make a move on the top spot soon.

- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:25 pm:
scoot, they’re good numbers. Not great yet.

- Shore - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:26 pm:
Ivy League educated, Naval Aviator, clean as a bar of soap, national reputation as a thoughtful leader, not the profile of a right wing conservative.

Looks like Mark Kirk could be the next Senator from Illinois.

- fed up - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:29 pm:
I like alot of things about Mark kirk I just dont know if he will be able to overcome the stain that is the GOP label. Whats amazing is the DEms in this state are much more corrupt (more oppurtunities) but the stain doesnt seem to be as bad.

- colby - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:29 pm:
Not great numbers for the Dems in the Senate race. I suspect that as the campaign got going, a lot of those Dem voters would come home, but that Jan and Alexi’s personal problems could scare away some indies.

- Avarus - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:32 pm:
Schakowsky should drop out, these numbers coupled with poor funding, and her husbands tax dodging. She’s done.

- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:35 pm:
===Schakowsky should drop out==

She ain’t even “in” yet.

- 47th Ward - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:39 pm:
This poll tells me what I’ve always known about Mark Kirk: he’ll be very competitive in a general election. What I don’t know about Kirk is whether he can win a GOP primary. For me, that’s the most interesting angle and nothing else really matters.

- Team America - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:39 pm:
I don’t know which sources are telling who what about Kirk, but I would advise everyone to just hold their horses for the moment.

- Kirk - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:40 pm:
Kirk is part of the national “NO,” party. When push comes to shove, despite all the problems of Democratic Party in IL and the stain of Balgojevich corruption, voters in IL are not going to send someone to Washington who is going to vote against President Obama’s agenda. Kirk is going to spend his whole campaign talking about how corrupt the state is, and will totally avoid any mention of the fact that he won’t support Barack.

Also, how will the rest of GOP react when they realize that Mark Kirk is Pro Choice and Pro Gay.

- 47th Ward - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:41 pm:
Not to mention anti-gun…

- Steve - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:42 pm:
I didn’t realize Dan Proft was Cicero Town Spokesman.How about that for a resume builder!

- ConservativeVeteran - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:46 pm:
I live in Rep. Kirk’s district, and I think that he might win a statewide primary, because he’s moderate. In 2008, Dr. Sauerberg was moderate, and he won his primary. In 2006, then-Treasurer Topinka was moderate, and she won her primary.

- party of one - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 2:49 pm:
I have not heard of a single credible conservative that has floated their name for Senate. Mark Kirk should have a pretty clear shot.

- Kirk - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:01 pm:
party of one - I have not heard of a single credible conservative that has floated their name for Senate. Mark Kirk should have a pretty clear shot.

What about Roskam?

- colby - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:03 pm:
Winning the primary in 2008 wasn’t very hard, ’cause no one serious wanted to spend six months losing by 20. And Topinka’s subsequent hapless defeat ought to inspire the Republicans to try something different.

That being said, no one else is really involved. Until there is, it’s just a bunch of sound and fury from the right-wing (or perhaps the left-wing).

- party of one - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:04 pm:
Peter has a great assignment on Ways and Means and is establishing himself as one of the “go to guys” in the House. I know some people would like him to run statewide in 2010. Even for Gov (he was a consistent Blago opponent in the statehouse. but it seems much more likely he stays in Congress

- Abe Froman - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:04 pm:
Those numbers are indeed good for Kirk. I think the sample is a little skewed with a too many dems and too few independents. Yeah, IL is a blue state but the Dem brand is a little weak right now and party affiliations are getting softer across the country. Even so, in this sample, he’s doing well (except against Madigan who has a huge name ID lead).

Regardless, even with some guerilla snipping from his right flank, Kirk will have strong appeal among suburban voters. His military background is a big plus for some voters who might not particularly like his pro-choice stance. And if the apparent food fight in the Dem primary materializes, he will be in an even stronger position.

- Vote Quimby! - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:10 pm:
==a Republican vegetable==
Like the milk man? ;-)

- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:11 pm:
Milk=Dairy.

- HV in HP - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:12 pm:
Abe Froman? THE Abe Froman, Sausage King of Chicago?

- State Sen. Clay Davis - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:14 pm:
“I have not heard of a single credible conservative…”

Full stop.

I think Team America is right, what if Kirk holds pat? He has taken the DCCC’s best shot two cycles in a row - they will probably not bother supporting Bond/Seals/whoever else runs. Giving that up is risky, no matter how favorable things look for him against Alexi and Jan.

Will serving in a dwindling House minority be miserable enough to make him run to be a freshman Republican in a dwindling Senate minority?

- Vote Quimby! - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:15 pm:
It was too easy…sorry. These numbers are nothing but bad news for Quinn–he has no money and his public perception is falling…and we are just now entering May when the fight really starts. I thought Quinn would be looking better after 100 days in office…

- EmptySuitParade - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:38 pm:
Usually Kirk runs the other way when someone says BOO.
Meanwhile the national chapter of the Circular Firing Squad reports…Republicans Introduce Resolution to Limit Party Chairman’s Spending Authority. “Randy Pullen, the RNC’s elected treasurer, former RNC General Counsel David Norcross and three other former top RNC officers have presented Mr. Steele with a resolution, calling for a new set of checks and balances on the chairman’s power to dole out money… The discord comes as the Republican Party, already on the ropes after defeats in the 2008 elections, was hit with two more blows in recent days - the loss of a close House special election in upstate New York on Friday and the defection of Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter to the Democrats on Tuesday.”

- VanillaMan - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:42 pm:
I have two different yards that have developed around my house. I have a Democratic yard, and a Republican yard.

The Democratic yard has been lush and green for years. This is due to all the manure that is spread around. However, while it appears to be lush and green, I have discovered that the ground beneath it has been hollowed out by weasels and moles. So, as soon as you try to walk across the Democratic yard, your foot could suddenly plunge into hole, trip you up, and leave you covered in manure. Over the past six years, my Democratic lawn has suffered from these rotten greedy weasels. The moles move in after the weasels, and while you usually do not see them, they pop up after dark in search of the weasels. These animals go hand-in-hand.

The other problem with my Democratic lawn has been weeds and grubs. There is so much manure that grubs show up and get fat and plump on it. That is one of the reasons it gets weasels and moles, as they are attracted to fat grubs, rich in manure.

On the other side, I have a Republican yard. It used to be lush and green, but after I had the earth turned up to add extentions to my house, the yard is now dead. I have tried reseeding it every spring, but it remains barren. I tried fertilizing it, but it will take a whole lot more work to prepare this Republican yard in order for anything to grow on it. There are patches of healthy weeds that spring up out of nowhere, and while they look green and can actually be mowed through the summer, they are not what I want. These mercenary weeds don’t spread, they just shoot up on their own, then die out. The Republican yard looks awful.

I reseeded the Republican yard last week, and it appears that there is a patch of new grass. But this happens every year. Will it live through the rain storms that often wash away the fertilizer and grass seed as years past? Will it last through the long hot summer and take root? I hope it can, because my property looks better with two healthy yards.

As it stands now, my neighbors drive by or walk past and stare at both my Republican and Democratic yards. They’ve raised fences and sprayed along my property lines in order to keep both my yards from infecting theirs. Their yards are beautiful with lots of healthy plants. My plants are abandoned in the middle of brownfields.

I wish Mr. Kirk a lot of luck, because we really need Illinois to present an attractive appearance to it’s neighbors.

- Ringside - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:55 pm:
I can’t believe Proft is seriously entering the gubernatorial race. Wasn’t he behind “Mr. Oberweis’s Series of Unfortunate Elections”?

- Conservative Republican - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:58 pm:
Does anyone else think that Lisa Madigan has benefited from strong name ID and running a good shop in a down ticket office? That once she is in the arena for a significant office like Governor she will not perform as well as her polling to date? Methinks she’s a bit of a paper tiger and will underwhelm when on the gubernatorial campaign hustings.

- Rob_N - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 3:58 pm:
State Sen. Clay Davis says: “I think Team America is right, what if Kirk holds pat? He has taken the DCCC’s best shot two cycles in a row”

You answer yourself at the end of your comment. He’s in a dwindling minority that is leaving him behind ideologically. Most, if not almost all, of the House GOP leadership is to the right of Rep. Kirk.

He’s hitting a glass ceiling in the House GOP.

Plus, 2012 is coming up and the remap likely won’t be too favorable to anyone without much clout in their respective caucus.

“they [DCCC] will probably not bother supporting Bond/Seals/whoever else runs.”

And you would know this because your name is actually Congressman Van Hollen?

You’re 180° wrong, but whatever. The DCCC wants IL-10.

“Will serving in a dwindling House minority be miserable enough to make him run to be a freshman Republican in a dwindling Senate minority?”

Again, 2012. Senators don’t face remaps. Plus being one in a minority of 35 or 40 versus one in a minority among dozens and dozens offers more opportunity for a leadership role.

That said, Senate gives him a higher-profile should he want to put his name in the hat for a Cabinet post in some future GOP White House or some other high profile position somewhere.

- Vote Quimby! - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 4:19 pm:
Clayborne digs deeper into the school consolidation/son’s suspension mess:
http://www.bnd.com/372/story/750924.html

- Nort'sider - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 4:19 pm:
Dan Proft: A legend in his own mind.

So what’s the over/under on his final percentage of the GOP primary vote?

- Rob_N - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 4:29 pm:
Cons. Republican, are you saying you think Lisa Madigan is Jim Ryan ca. 2002?

- 47th Ward - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 4:36 pm:
Hey VM,

I think your problem is grubs, ultra right wing grubs that eat all of the roots of normally healthy, moderate Republican grass. Jim Edgar/Jim Thompson grass.

We Democrats may have weasels and moles damaging our yard, but your party eats its own for the sake of “purity.” We’ll see if IL Republicans are ready to nominate a moderate. Then maybe your lawn will recover.

- VanillaMan - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 4:50 pm:
We’ll see if IL Republicans are ready to nominate a moderate.

You mean like Jim Ryan and Judy Topinka? Sorry but your King Weasel was elected over both of them. You worked so hard to infest our lawns, watched as your weasels made the state too ugly to live with, and now claim they came from from the yards across the street.

Now get off my lawn, you whippersnapper!

- 47th Ward - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 4:55 pm:
OK, maybe you’re right. Do you have a female dog? Canine urine has been known to damage lawns. Or maybe it’s the birds stealing your lawn seed.

Fact is, I neither know nor care why the Republican side of your yard is a wasteland. But I suspect there are many reasons. Don’t forget, native grass in Illinois is of the Edgar/Thompson variety.

That’s all the free advice I care to offer the party formerly known as Illinois Republicans.

- The Shadow - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 5:28 pm:
Having run the Oberweis, O’Malley, Jack Ryan, Keyes, Rauschenberger, and Peraica campaigns into the ground, Dan Proft has decided to turn the page in Illinois politics - and throw his hat in the ring for Governor.

Word is that Mr. Proft will be running as part of a slate. The details are still sketchy, but I can reveal that Rod McCulloch will be running as Lieutenant Governor on the same ticket.

Stay tuned.

- wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 5:49 pm:
Those aren’t terrible numbers for Brady, are they? Considering you have to be a full-blown political junkie even to know who he is? Is that an Irish name bump?

Question: Is there any GOP candidate for anything that has the brains to spend time on the Southwest or Northwest sides and rip Daley and Stroger? Start with the cops and firemen. There are ears that will listen. To paraphrase Willie Sutton, go where the votes are.

VMan, keep purifying that GOP. Pretty soon, you can caucus in a phone booth, if you can find one.

- OneMan - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 5:56 pm:
The Jack Ryan campaign into the ground? Until the divorce file was opened the campaign was fine, once it came out how in the heck is that Profits fault?

- Cheswick - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 6:22 pm:
Isn’t Cicero where a lot of corruption is?

- The Shadow - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 7:20 pm:
OneMan-

It’s Proft’s fault for a few different reasons:

1.) He was Jack’s campaign manager. He has admitted he knew about the harmful information regarding the sex clubs when he started the campaign. Therefore, he should have had a plan to deal with it if/when the info came out. He didn’t.

2.) Knowing about the information and that the presiding judge in the divorce case never wanted to seal the file in the first place, he should have known it would come out. Therefore, he should have released the info at a time when it would have done the least damage - say over Christmas - when people aren’t paying attention. Proft took the risky bet and lost badly. In my opinion, that’s gross negligence as a campaign mgr.

3.) Not only did he allow the Ryan campaign to go down in a ball of flames, he took it upon himself to run the Keyes campaign as well. I don’t think I need to elaborate on that fiasco.

- ZC - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 8:16 pm:
Who else besides Kirk might jump into the GOP primary for Senate?

Conservative activists might not like Kirk, but who are they going to beat him with? Are they going to pull Al Salvi out of political retirement?

- Team America - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 9:13 pm:
Looks like Lynn Sweet has revised her anemic post from “Mark Kirk is Poised to jump in Illinois 2010 Senate Race” to “Mark Kirk Mulling 2010 Senate Race.”

That’s News? Not to anybody here.

Big Difference.

As someone on my blog recently reminded me, those who talk, don’t know. Those who know, don’t talk.

Good advice.

- OneMan - Thursday, Apr 30, 09 @ 10:40 pm:
Shadow

1) You know keeping the file sealed was a plan.

2) I don’t see how you bury sex clubs, even over Christmas.

3) I wasn’t defending his actions on Keyes

- Anonymous - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 12:49 am:
===========
Word is that Mr. Proft will be running as part of a slate. The details are still sketchy, but I can reveal that Rod McCulloch will be running as Lieutenant Governor on the same ticket.
============

Im sorry, Mr. McCulloch is just way too tame in said scenario. Just wait.

Stay tuned….

- Rob_N - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:08 am:
Cheswick asked, “Isn’t Cicero where a lot of corruption is?”

Allegedly.

But, Cicero cops were found at polling places this past mayoral election a month ago and were allegedly intimidating voters.

Plus, the Trib revealed last year that Proft himself benefited from more than a half million bucks in no-bid contracts to be “the voice” of Cicero and a local Cicero school district.

…Can you imagine if they worked out $500,000 in no bid gov’t money from just one town what he’d do on the state level? (Not that he even has a chance, but still. We just got rid of one Pay to Play Prince… don’t need a new one.)

My only question …. what role will his intern/colleague/doesn’t really work “for” him/St. Pauli Girl/sockpuppet Julie Johnson play?

Will she keep calling him an “idiot” in order to sockpuppet his “controversial” writings that she pastes all over the Internet?

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:14 am:
I have a funny feeling once the “Republican Congressman Mark Kirk voted with George W. Bush 98% of the time” and “Republican Mark Kirk voted against President Obama 75% of the time” ads start, Mark Kirk won’t be looking so hot.

Who can beat Kirk in a GOP primary? Well, Oberweis for one.

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:15 am:
Dan Brady for Two.

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:16 am:
John Shimkus for Three.

- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:17 am:
BTW, I’ll bet Proft is running for Kirk’s seat.

- Anonymous - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:18 am:
People generally like Kirk.

- There you go again - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:19 am:
How do you think Kennedy would line up in a poll match-up against Kirk?

- Rob_N - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 9:59 am:
There you go again asks, “How do you think Kennedy would line up in a poll match-up against Kirk?”

I’ll answer with another question: Who? ;)

What has the guy done to merit consideration (other than being born into a dynasty)?

Managing one of the largest buildings in the country is certainly noteworthy, but we shall see whether that and his other accomplishments merit the voters’ trust.

- Rob_N - Friday, May 1, 09 @ 10:00 am:
YDD - Proft filed a state committee for guv. No Federal committee for Proft is on file that I know of.

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