* Lynn Sweet has drastically revised her scooplet yesterday that Republican Congressman Mark was “poised” to jump into the US Senate race…
Note: In an earlier version I wrote Kirk was “poised” to jump in the contest. I revised to “mulling” later.
That’s quite a big difference. He’s been “mulling” the race for months.
The people I talked to yesterday are also backtracking today, so I’m not sure what the heck is going on.
* On its blog, Public Policy Polling takes a closer look at its Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias and Kirk vs. Jan Schakowsky results we had here yesterday and comes up with this tidbit about independent voter preference…
…55% of independents said they approved of Barack Obama’s job performance. But when it came to the 2010 Senate race Mark Kirk led Alexi Giannoulias 36-25 among independents and had a 39-22 edge over Jan Schakowsky. In other words less than half of those independents who said they liked the job the President is doing are committed to voting for someone from his party to assume his old Senate seat next year.
PPP does admit, however, that “independents” are getting more conservative as a whole because so many people are leaving the Republican Party these days.
What they didn’t mention because it might not have fit their theme is that independents favored Lisa Madigan over Kirk 44-32. Independents also picked Pat Quinn over Bill Brady 34-27 and went with LMadigan over Brady 43-25.
* Also, as I’ve told you many times before, African-American voters always break late, and it’s no different in that PPP poll. African-American undecided numbers for the hypothetical US Senate matchup with Congressman Kirk show a Democratic underperformance which won’t be there come election day…
* Schakowsky - 34%
* Giannoulias - 37%
* Madigan - 25%
* Meanwhile, Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky’s people are attempting a bit of damage control. As I told you yesterday, that Public Policy Polling survey had Kirk leading Schakowsky 37-30.
Late yesterday, Schakowsky’s campaign blasted out this e-mail…
Momentum continues to build for Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-IL, to enter the 2010 Illinois Senate race. A statewide survey of 600 likely voters showed Rep. Schakowsky holding a 6-point lead over Rep. Mark Kirk in a potential 2010 Senate race. As voters learn more about the two candidates, Schakowsky’s lead over Kirk expands.
Not quite.
First, the poll was taken December 20-22 of last year. The poll is over four months old. So much for “momentum.”
Second, if you take a closer look you’ll see that her own poll shows her initially leading Kirk 23-20. Only when “leaners” are factored in did her December lead expand to 36-30.
* And Greg Hinz talked to Democratic US Senate possible Chris Kennedy about his latest poll…
The North Shore resident also confirmed that he’s interested enough in the race for the seat now held by Roland Burris that he’s commissioned a poll, and that the results are pretty good.
Mr. Kennedy wouldn’t give any numbers but, as he put it, “Let’s just say there was nothing in there that would discourage me.” Another source familiar with the poll agreed that the results are favorable.