* Let’s look ahead. First, an interesting theory in the Daily Herald…
[Lisa] Madigan’s move has repercussions beyond just the ballot box.
Quinn, who rose to the spot from lieutenant governor after Blagojevich’s ouster, has had trouble marshaling support from lawmakers as he pushes an income tax hike and struggles with service cuts facing a $9 billion budget shortfall.
Lawmakers who have long expected Madigan to successfully challenge Quinn in a primary had little reason to listen to him.
“Certainly the idea that Lisa Madigan was going to be there to take him out made it easier for lawmakers to take Quinn on,” said Kent Redfield, interim director of the Institute for Legislative Studies at the University of Illinois in Springfield. “If they now come to the conclusion that they are stuck with Quinn, that may change the calculations.”
There was far more to the resistance than that. A tax hike is considered by many to be a political death trap. But it’s still an interesting thought.
* Campaign-wise, Delmarie Cobb wins our quote of the day award… again…
Burris campaign aide Delmarie Cobb said Madigan’s decision, along with money are part of “a long line of factors” determining if Burris would seek election.
“As you know, there have been many marquee names thrown out for this seat and so far they have all fizzled,” Cobb said. “With [Burris] as the incumbent, it seems the Democratic Party would do well to rally around the person who has the seat and keep the seat rather than mine for a candidate.”
I can’t foresee a career in political prognostication for Ms. Cobb. Then again, the cable networks tend to choose people who are always wrong as their regular pundits, so maybe I’m off base here.
* The a general consensus is building that yesterday’s announcement was good for Republicans…
Republicans in general and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in particular look like the beneficiaries of Wednesday’s announcement by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan that she’s running for re-election, not for governor or U.S. Senate, one analyst says.
It was certainly good news for US Senate Republicans. A Lisa Madigan candidacy was their most feared outcome. But Mark Kirk is no sure thing. Not yet, anyway. We’ll see how the Democratic primary goes.
* Speaking of Kirk, if he does go ahead with a US Senate run as expected, his seat will be open…
Potential Democratic nominees include: State Sen. Michael Bond, who was already in the race; Dan Seals, who was Kirk’s opponent in 2006 and 2008; and state Sen. Susan Garrett. Possible Republican candidates include state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson, state Rep. JoAnn Osmond, and businessman Dick Green.
Democrats think they’ll have a pretty good shot at this seat, as it is one of only six districts that were won by both Obama in 2008 and Kerry in 2004, but are represented by Republicans. On the Republican side, a source told me: “This won’t be an easy seat to hold, but with the right candidate and Kirk on the ticket, it is possible.”
Kirk had an amazing ballot impact last year. Down-ballot legislative Republicans in his district who were deemed vulnerable all ended up winning. That’s one big reason Republicans love the idea of a Kirk candidacy. Here’s another…
“He attracts votes in large percentages from both independents and Democrats,” Edgar said. “He is the moderate kind of Republican that can win statewide in Illinois.”
…Adding… The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee already has an Intertubes ad thingy designed to discredit Kirk as a moderate…
[Hat tip to a commenter.]
* And then there’s Dan Hynes…
Madigan’s move also makes it very likely that Comptroller Dan Hynes will run for governor instead of a fourth term as comptroller, Redfield predicted.
He was never running for a fourth term as comptroller. He had been eyeing AG. Now, he has little choice but to look at guv.
* LG for Hamos?
The Madigan move also could be felt further down the ballot. State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston), who had been weighing a possible candidacy for attorney general, told supporters she was looking for their input about another office to seek—potentially lieutenant governor.
Your own predictions?