* Just in time for Dan Hynes’ formal campaign announcement kickoff today, Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign has a new poll of 751 likely Democratic primary voters out that shows Hynes has a long row to hoe…
Quinn: 54%
Hynes: 26%
Undecided: 20%
The pollster claims that Quinn leads in “every demographic and geographic subgroup. More…
• Almost three-quarters of voters (73%) agree that, “Pat Quinn is honest and trustworthy.” Two-thirds (68%) agree that, “Pat Quinn has restored integrity to the governor’s office.” And 60% agree that, “Pat Quinn fights for people like [them].”
• While 62% say that, “Pat Quinn has shown that he deserves a chance to serve a full term as Governor,” just 29% say, “Pat Quinn helped get past the scandals of Rod Blagojevich, but he isn’t up to the job of Governor.”
Name ID, favorability and job approval…
• Pat Quinn (88% name identification) and Dan Hynes (67% name identification) both start out with good name identification. But Quinn’s favorable rating (72%) is 16 points higher than Hynes’s (56% favorable). Quinn’s job rating as governor (68% positive) is 7 points higher than Hynes’s job rating as Comptroller (61% positive).
I’ll have more on this poll later.
* Meanwhile, Mark Brown doesn’t think much of a new advertising campaign by the Illinois Coalition of Immigrant and Refugee Rights which attacks Mark Kirk. The print and online ads feature a photo of Kirk and a condom: “Congressman Mark Kirk: Condoms are not an immigration solution!” The radio ad begins with an announcer saying: “I wonder what goes on inside the mind of a congressman when he states that the solution for immigration is to send condoms to Mexico.”
Brown…
Actually, Kirk never said anything about condoms, nor did he specifically use the words “birth control,” although I think the latter at least is a fair inference to draw from what he actually did say.
Kirk was speaking on the House floor in June 2007 in favor of U.S. financial support for international family planning agencies when he made these comments:
“A slower rate of growth of Mexico’s population would improve the economy of Mexico,” Kirk said. “It would also reduce the environmental pressure on Mexico’s ecosystem. But a slower rate of growth would also reduce the long-term illegal immigration pressure on America’s borders.”
While that doesn’t strike me as particularly objectionable, I’m told I would feel differently if I were of Mexican descent.
* Our political quote of the day goes to Congressman Danny Davis, who was asked about the failure yesterday of the Cook County Board to roll back part of the sales tax hike…
Another politician eyeing Stroger’s job, Congressman Danny Davis, says he doesn’t know enough about the county’s finances to take a position because he’s not on the board.
DAVIS: So how I can I take a position when I don’t know the issues?
Wow. That’s a pretty serious admission of ignorance.
* Also, Democratic US Senate candidate Cheryle Jackson is now calling herself Cheryle Robinson Jackson in press releases…
A spokesman said there is no significant purpose for the addition, which first began appearing in news releases Monday.
“There’s no reason or why,” spokesman Bob Kettlewell said. […]
Kettlewell was asked if Jackson had begun using her maiden name because of prior female senators who used three names - Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, by way of Illinois and Arkansas.
“Absolutely not,” Kettlewell said.
Could the Jackson name be polling badly? They’re not saying.
* Chicago Treasurer Stephanie Neely is definitely not running for US Senate, I’m told. It would’ve been pretty late to jump in anyway.
- Captain Flume - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:20 am:
There was some discussion yesterday on this blog about jackson using the robinson in the middle of her name. The speculation seemed to draw some ridicule. apparently it is at least a minor issue outside of this group.
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:21 am:
Capt Fax
Did you tell us yesterday that Michelle O’Bama’s Maiden name is Robinson and this is some weird grasp at the connect with the Prez?
If you did I am sorry to be repetive
BTW did you know COmmando Kirk had staff cut the crust off his BLT….this will cost him be time with crust eaters, probably offsetting his gain with the 1000Islanders
- OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:24 am:
Also I suspect it might reduce the hits you get on her name in google with Blago.
- Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:26 am:
OneMan, I believe you have nailed it.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:31 am:
OneMan, you may be right, at least in the short term.
- Deep South - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:33 am:
Dan who?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:38 am:
The anti-Kirk ads are transparently dishonest and inflammatory. It’s been that kind of summer.
Is it possible to discuss any issue without cynical political ops portraying their opponent as the anti-Christ?
- very southsider - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:39 am:
well good starting point for Quinn, but he needs to work on the $800k vs. $3.5 million…
- Anon - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:39 am:
Good numbers for the Governor. I wonder if dan’s numbers show the same thing. If so, it will be interesting to see how he spends his money to win the primary. Now that its shortened, he may not have adequate time to run a positive bio piece before going negative on the governor. will he go straight to comparitive ads? Instant negative ads right after Christmas will not sit well with voters. Their Blago fatigue is already high and such a strategy may backfire.
Tough tactical campaign decisions ahead for Dan.
- siriusly - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:42 am:
Hiring Bob Kettlewell was a good move on her part. I am guessing he had input on the name change. I think it also signifies that she’s got some money, he is a talented PR veteran.
OneMan’s guess is as good as any, you can’t hide from Google - but if you change your name its like starting over!
I hope Danny Davis does become Cook Board President, we’ll have some great quotes. He’ll make Daley look like Shakespeare.
- Nort'sider - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:44 am:
I heard Danny Davis’ comment on the radio this morning, and immediately thought A) He’s toast; and B) I’m glad he’s not my congressman.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:49 am:
Here’s an exercise for people watching Danny Davis on the campaign trail. Take notes on what he says and then write a summary from your notes.
While Davis has a gift for connecting to his audience and making them feel good, he’s always been thin on specifics.
Davis thinks his stature and personal charm will be sufficient to make county government work better.
While Davis would be better than Stroger, who doesn’t play well with others, there are real problems, complex problems facing county government.
Davis doesn’t know technology well enough to make good decisions about how to use technology to improve services.
And Davis sees the whole county gig as a semi-retirement anyway. To Davis it will be like being a Congressman, only without having to travel to DC.
Showing up for votes and schmoozing is easy compared to managing the bureaucracy of Cook County gov’t. Davis’ casual attitude toward details and the challenges of the job should be troubling to more folk.
But the major media outlets couldn’t even cover a candidate forum in the near West Side.
- Anon - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:56 am:
Too bad anyone covered the ICIRR stunt against Kirk. I thought the media outlets were hurting for cash and needed ad revenue, well ICIRR got more from the few stories popping than they are spending on the ad. No one ever said the media outlets were filled with smart people.
Also, as Brown points out, Kirk never said anything about condoms. How can such a political organization like ICIRR (who was tied to voter fraud in lake county last cycle against Kirk)run such an blatant false ad? I know its because everyone on their board has endorsed Alexi.
- Obamarama - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:00 am:
===The speculation seemed to draw some ridicule. apparently it is at least a minor issue outside of this group.===
The ridicule was the result of a certain poster being off their meds and spouting off some nonsense about Kenyan heritage. OneMan’s explanation makes the most sense to me.
- Shore - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:06 am:
I’m a big fan of Mark, but they need to watch his mouth. There will be 2-3 flubs that happen during the campaign he’ll get hit on. If Alexi’s good, I’m sure he’ll come up with a stinger on the name change, “she can add more names but she can’t subtract how awful she and blago were for the state.”ect ect.
- Shore - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:07 am:
It’s also nice to see the sun-times columnists writing about Illinois Republicans again on something other than a sighting at a restraunt or with the term nut attached.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:09 am:
Has Anon (10:56) got any information to support the allegation of voter fraud?
If not, the post should probably be deleted.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:16 am:
I need a refresher on the psychology behind why campaigns release polls showing that they’re far ahead.
Is it to convince funders to get on the bandwagon? An assumption that people like to be associated with a winner, so will vote for who they perceive to be ahead?
But couldn’t the converse be true as well? Funders might sit it out because you don’t need help, and your voters might stay at home because they figure you’re going to win anyway?
- Obamarama - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:39 am:
===Is it to convince funders to get on the bandwagon? An assumption that people like to be associated with a winner, so will vote for who they perceive to be ahead?
But couldn’t the converse be true as well? Funders might sit it out because you don’t need help, and your voters might stay at home because they figure you’re going to win anyway?===
Yes and yes to the first question.
As far as the converse effects go, funders should always be approached from a position of strength. “We have proven our viability by raising XXX dollars and polling at N%. With your help we can continue our momentum and win this race. Will you support us with a contribution of $250?”
People make both of the arguments you outlined, but I tend subscribe to the first. Surely someone will disagree with me and you can hear that side too.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:47 am:
The website for ICIRR does not allow visitors to roam around unless and until you “register” with the site. This is not common, in my experience. I find that curious, to say the least. Why do they do this? All I wanted was to find out who they are and what their views are and couldn’t do that.
- Hank - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 11:51 am:
Carl, I liked your coverage of the Davis comments at the recent townhall in Proviso that the MSM didn’t cover for some reason. He apparently was also at his oratorial best at the WLS meeting yesterday a well. Keep reporting
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 12:27 pm:
The poll is not surprising to me at all.
Quinn isn’t expired, and Hynes isn’t inspiring. Hynes has to persuade enough Democrats to believe that Quinn couldn’t possibly win next year. That belief isn’t a reality. What is Hynes doing to change that? Attacking Quinn? So, how is that original?
Either Hynes has to demonstrate a level of campaign excitement that leads to Democrats believing he could win - or Hynes slowly bleeds Quinn to death without gaining traction, while a Chicago African American candidate beats them both with a plurality.
Democrats have to decide whether to stay in the Quinn canoe and ride out the rapids, or risk capsizing both Quinn and Hynes in an effort to find a candidate they believe can win. Hynes hasn’t convinced enough Democrats to take that risk, and Quinn isn’t screwing up enough to justify the risk either.
Right now it looks like they are splitting the same voter base, leaving both guys wide open for an attractive third candidate.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 12:36 pm:
“A slower rate of growth of Mexico’s population would improve the economy of Mexico,” Kirk said. “It would also reduce the environmental pressure on Mexico’s ecosystem. But a slower rate of growth would also reduce the long-term illegal immigration pressure on America’s borders.”
What offends me about that statement is the belief that a booming population cripples an economy. That’s crazy talk. Human beings have the natural right to procreate, and an economy needs to be reformed in order to take advantage of a booming population.
Kirk’s thinking would lead one to believe that it isn’t the dam’s fault that it failed, but that the problem is that water is too liquid.
When nature trumps government policies, change the damn policies.
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 12:43 pm:
“DAVIS: So how I can I take a position when I don’t know the issues?”
But that never stopped Davis from taking positions in Congress. Nor did things like “the views of people living in his district.”
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 12:56 pm:
–What offends me about that statement is the belief that a booming population cripples an economy.–
He didn’t say that. You did. Read what he said.
–Human beings have the natural right to procreate–
Sure seems that way. Did anyone suggest anything differently?
I think your problem here is with family planning, and not economics.
- Brennan - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 12:57 pm:
It’s uphill both ways to deliver the family planning services Mark Kirk wants to fund in Mexico.
Fast forward to now. The Mexico City Policy is back on the bench. USAID funding is already going to Mexico via Executive Order of President Obama./end
PS: Two points for Will County Woman. One point deducted for the Kenyan nonsense.
- Pat collins - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 1:32 pm:
So, if it’s racist for Kirk to be in favor of family planning for Mexico, is it also racist for Planned Parenthood to open a huge new place in heavily hispanic Aurora?
And where are these ads playing?
- Pat collins - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 1:34 pm:
Ah, I should have read more. So, they only run them in Spanish media. Do they fear the ads would help Kirk if in English media??
- ZC - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 2:28 pm:
My only insight on Hynes-Quinn is that I drove this week around Southern IL, DuQuoin and below, and while I wasn’t talking politics with folks, I couldn’t help noticing that Quinn _owned_ the Southern Illinoisan. Every day, it was Quinn honors veterans at DuQuoin State Fair, Quinn reopens Governor’s Mansion for open house for the first time since George Ryan, Quinn talks about broadening local highways.
A lot of the media sound bites on the Capitol Fax were nowhere to be seen, as far as I could tell. I thought that Hynes would have an advantage among Downstate Dems with his labor stances, and that Quinn played better with lakefront liberals than DuQuoin Democrats. I’m no longer at all sure of that. He got really nice press this week, by just doing what governors can do naturally. Hynes has a lot of catching up to do there, is my guess.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 2:31 pm:
ZC, the same thing happens every year during DuQuoin’s fair. No matter who the guv is, including Rod.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 3:27 pm:
Sorry, playing catch-up.
Just one quick comment in the meantime though re: crusts and 1000 Island???!!! Lots of different ways to make a great BLT! lol
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 4:45 pm:
========
Also, as Brown points out, Kirk never said anything about condoms. How can such a political organization like ICIRR…run such an blatant false ad?
========
Brown said that the statements didn’t seem objectionable, and I tend to generally agree–probably because I may be considering that the statements were made on the House floor. Kirk’s probably coming across as too “brainy” because he’s being concise, which would have been appropriate for the forum.
If the same proposal were restated in another forum that would have allowed time for elaboration (and even Q&A), the reaction to it may have been more positive–because it seems to be a win/win for the US AND Mexico.
Being able to improve the conditions in your own Country would make living there better and easier. Eventually, so much so perhaps, that you might not even want to pull up your roots–especially if you have a large family–to move to the US. (Wouldn’t it be nice for some folks to stay where they may WANT to stay, and be able to visit the US on a family vacation someday? To even be able to determine–without fear or pressure–whether the “big move” will be a good one for their family?)
People of Mexico are VERY loving and family-oriented. Circumstances that would drive one to assume the risk of coming here “undocumented”–and sometimes even having to leave all their little ones behind–must be extremely dire. The decision itself and time away must be heart-wrenching.
People of Mexico are also generally very, very kind–and trusting. We’ve all read stories and may even know of someone who knows someone who has been exploited as an undocumented worker. Can you imagine the fear one must feel for himself and his family to take such a risk?
I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve had more than a few sleepless nights worrying about the plight of good people who are here undocumented–and have said plenty of prayers begging for solutions to help not only them, but others who feel the need to come here under such conditions.
Again, based on the short clips that are available, Mark Kirk’s proposal seems to be a win/win for everyone.
I just hope that ICIRR have their hearts in the right place–v. trying to “politicize” something that shouldn’t be–and are simply tripping over themselves in achieving their goal…which should be to help the people of Mexico who are suffering.
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 6:22 pm:
IF Commando Kirk cuts off his crusts what else gets sliced in the name of public policy?
Yikes
- regular democrat - Wednesday, Sep 2, 09 @ 10:08 pm:
Is Fritchey’s replacement going to be hand picked by Ald Schulter? Just asking. We shall see I say yes Rich you hear anything???