* The Paul Simon Institute has a new statewide poll [fixed link]. The gubernatorial head-to-heads will probably get the most coverage, but there’s something more important that we should look at first.
Check out the highlighted results from these job approval ratings…
Illinois Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno
Strongly Approve 2.8%
Somewhat Approve 14.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 4.9%
Strongly Disapprove 3.3%
Don’t Know 75.0%
House of Representatives Minority Leader Tom Cross
Strongly Approve 4.1%
Somewhat Approve 21.8%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.8%
Strongly Disapprove 2.8%
Don’t Know 64.6%
Illinois Senate President John Cullerton
Strongly Approve 3.4%
Somewhat Approve 19.8%
Somewhat Disapprove 9.4%
Strongly Disapprove 6.1%
Don’t Know 61.4%
Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives Mike Madigan
Strongly Approve 8.3%
Somewhat Approve 32.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 20.8%
Strongly Disapprove 21.8%
Don’t Know 17.1%
The “don’t know” answer was prefaced by this statement from the pollster: “If you don’t know enough about that person, just tell me that.”
It’s long been said that Speaker Madigan couldn’t be made an issue in campaigns because voters don’t know who he is. That’s definitely true of the other leaders, but it doesn’t appear to be the case with Speaker Madigan.
For example, far more voters don’t know who Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is, or don’t know enough about him to make a judgment (46.8%) than Madigan (17.1%). The same goes for Comptroller Dan Hynes (41.0%).
About an equal number say they don’t know who is/enough about Roland Burris (16.4%) when compared to Madigan. And the difference isn’t all that great between Speaker Madigan’s “don’t know” numbers and Gov. Quinn’s (12.8%). The pollster said he was astounded by the Madigan results because most people in other states have little idea who the House Speaker is.
Also, obviously, Speaker Madigan’s support amongst the populace is quite soft, while his disapproval rating is far more intense.
* Methodology…
The survey of 800 registered Illinois voters was taken Sept. 8 to Oct. 9 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
But the head-to-heads in the primary matchups have far higher margins of error…
Of those surveyed, 322 respondents said they would vote in the Democratic primary, and of those, 208 offered an answer. The results of the Democratic contest have a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.
There were 201 respondents who said they would vote in the Republican primary, and of those, 89 offered an answer. Those findings have a margin of error of ± 6.9 percent.
89 with an opinion? Holy moly, that’s a microscopic sample size.
* Keeping those very tiny numbers in mind, the Dem results…
Governor Pat Quinn 33.9%
State Comptroller Dan Hynes 16.5%
Someone else 14.2%
Don’t know/No answer 35.4%
Republicans…
State Senator Bill Brady 10.0%
State Senator Kirk Dillard 7.5%
State Senator Matt Murphy 4.0%
DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillserstrom 3.5%
Radio Commentator Dan Proft 3.5%
Businessman Adam Andrzejewski 2.0%
Someone else 13.9%
Don’t know/No answer 55.7%
Also keep in mind that this poll was conducted before Jim Ryan and Andy McKenna announced and before Jim Edgar announced his support for Dillard, which (as I told subscribers today) may have given Dillard a big bump in recent polling.
And make sure you remember that the poll only picked up two days, at most, of Hynes’ TV ad buy.
* More job approval numbers…
U. S. President Barack Obama?
Strongly Approve 36.6%
Somewhat Approve 26.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 12.0%
Strongly Disapprove 22.6%
Don’t Know 2.6%
Illinois Governor Pat Quinn?
Strongly Approve 10.3%
Somewhat Approve 47.8%
Somewhat Disapprove 18.8%
Strongly Disapprove 10.5%
Don’t Know 12.8%
Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan?
Strongly Approve 33.5%
Somewhat Approve 34.6%
Somewhat Disapprove 10.6%
Strongly Disapprove 5.3%
Don’t Know 16.0%
U.S. Senator Dick Durbin?
Strongly Approve 27.9%
Somewhat Approve 31.1%
Somewhat Disapprove 11.1%
Strongly Disapprove 22.6%
Don’t Know 7.3%
U.S. Senator Roland Burris?
Strongly Approve 4.6%
Somewhat Approve 15.0%
Somewhat Disapprove 21.1%
Strongly Disapprove 42.9%
Don’t Know 16.4%
Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes?
Strongly Approve 12.0%
Somewhat Approve 36.6%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.8%
Strongly Disapprove 3.6%
Don’t Know 41.0%
62.7 percent approval for Obama is a notch higher than the 59 percent in the Tribune’s late August poll.
58.1 percent approval for Gov. Quinn is way higher than the Tribune’s 39 percent. That is probably because the Trib appeared to ask approve/disapprove/no opinion, while this PSI poll asked strongly/somewhat/don’t know. The Tribune had 35 percent with no opinion, vs. this poll at 12.8 percent. I’ve said many times before that Quinn’s support and opposition is soft, with most in the mushy middle. This poll and the Trib poll both seemed to show that as well.