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* The Tribune has Gov. Pat Quinn with a big, 49-23 lead over Dan Hynes…
Among the 600 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed by telephone Dec. 2-8, Quinn had the support of 49 percent to 23 percent for Hynes, the three-term comptroller. Among other candidates, activist William “Dock” Walls had 3 percent, and attorney Ed Scanlan had 2 percent. An additional 21 percent were undecided; 2 were for others. The poll has an error margin of 4 percentage points.
The head-to-heads from the Trib’s toplines and crosstabs, which you can download by clicking here…
I wrote this back in late November…
Early benchmark polling for Quinn had him leading Hynes 54-to-26, with other polls showing similar results. […]
Recent polling conducted by other statewide Democratic candidates show Quinn ahead of Hynes 50-to-38 and 50-to-35, sources say.
So, Hynes is either regressing back to the days before he spent over $2 million on TV ads, or he hasn’t moved up since this race began. Hynes has been able to slightly lower Quinn’s numbers, but he’s stuck. Bad. Very bad.
Quinn job approval among Democrats…
That’s pretty darned huge for an incumbent governor with an $11 billion deficit who’s been hit hard in TV ads by his Democratic primary opponent and one GOP opponent (McKenna).
“Do you approve or disapprove of how Pat Quinn is handling state budget issues?”…
More…
Voters also approve of Quinn’s handling of ethics reform in the post-Blagojevich era by a nearly 2-1 ratio and gave him a similar advantage over Hynes when asked which candidate would better eliminate corruption.
The beauty of the Tribune posting their full questions and answers is that we know from the polling memo that Quinn’s 2-1 ratio on his handling of ethics reforms works is actually 42-22. Not party time, but not bad considering all the heat he’s taken on the editorial pages. As far as which candidate would be better at “eliminating” corruption in government (a goofy premise, to be sure), 34 percent said Quinn and 16 percent said Hynes. 15 percent said “none” and 29 percent didn’t know.
Back to the Tribune’s narrative…
Hynes could try to link Quinn to Blagojevich. Quinn served two terms as Blagojevich’s lieutenant governor and has refused to apologize for backing Blagojevich. During the 2006 re-election campaign, Quinn defended Blagojevich as someone who has “always been a person who’s honest and one of integrity,” despite myriad investigations into his administration.
Maybe. Just 11 percent of Dems said they were less likely to support Quinn when reminded that the governor “ran twice as Lieutenant Governor and running-mate to former Governor Rod Blagojevich.” From what I’ve been told, polling for both Democratic candidates shows that a Blagojevich attack just doesn’t work well against Quinn.
Also, Democrats are split on whether a tax hike is necessary, with 42 percent saying it is necessary and 47 percent saying it isn’t - even though both candidates are pushing for a tax hike…
Among Quinn’s supporters, 57 percent said they believed a tax increase is needed, while 38 percent of Hynes’ backers said they think one is necessary.
That’s one big reason why Hynes has been slamming Quinn on taxes. At least that part of his message is working.
* On to the Republicans and a big Jim Ryan lead…
The Trib says that this is a name ID race so far, and they may be right…
Notice in the head-to-heads that 37 percent of Republicans classify themselves as “very conservative.” That’s why the far right is so hopeless statewide.
The Tribune results are pretty close to Adam Andrzejewski’s poll taken in mid November, except that Andrzejewski scores much lower in the Tribune poll. The Trib’s new numbers are in parentheses…
Jim Ryan 30% (26%)
Adam Andrzejewski 11% (6%)
Bill Brady 11% (10%)
Andy McKenna 10% (12%)
Kirk Dillard 7% (9%)
Bob Schillerstrom 3% (2%)
Dan Proft 2% (2%)
Andy McKenna has spent a fortune on TV ads in the weeks since that Andrzejewski poll was taken, but he hasn’t budged.
The Trib asked: “All of the Republicans running for Governor oppose increasing state government taxes. How important is a candidate’s opposition to a state tax increase in deciding on a choice for Governor?” The answers were predictable…
Dillard and Ryan’s recent open-mindedness to a tax hike won’t help there, but just 45 percent said it was likely that the winner would keep his promise to oppose tax hikes, while 49 percent said it wasn’t likely he’d keep it.
Back to the Tribune…
But it is the 31 percent of undecided voters that makes the outcome of the contest far from certain as candidates use the post-New Year holiday period to ramp up TV advertising and telephone pitches. A majority isn’t necessary to win the nomination — in 2006, Judy Baar Topinka won a four-way primary with 38 percent of the vote.
The race has been pretty much static since Jim Ryan declared his intentions. Dillard’s TV blitz during the Tribune’s polling period didn’t help at all. Maybe the voters will change their minds come the big (and, don’t forget, very crowded) January hoo-ha, but unless somebody’s message really catches fire, this is Ryan’s race to lose.