How close is Brady/Dillard? Very
Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* In case you missed it last night, Bill Brady is leading Kirk Dillard by just 503 votes with 97 precincts to count…
Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Brady , Bill GOP 154,646 20%
Dillard , Kirk GOP 154,143 20%
Nate Silver at 538 takes a look at the numbers…
If I project out the remaining Cook County precincts based on the previous ones, I show Dillard picking up another 800 votes and Brady another 225. That would make the statewide margin Dillard 154,876, and Brady 154,877 — an advantage of literally one vote for Brady.
Silver didn’t include results from three Downstate precincts, where I give Brady about a 36-40 vote net advantage, plus things like provisional ballots, absentee ballots, etc. But this race is certainly close. Very close. It’s going to a recount for sure.
He’s totally right about the Quinn/Hynes race, though…
In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, incumbent Pat Quinn is performing slightly better than his statewide numbers in Cook County and it looks like his ~7,000-vote advantage over Dan Hynes will expand rather than contract. There might be a recount but unless there are mass irregularities or whole stashes of ballots that haven’t been counted yet, it is unlikely to change the outcome.
It’s over. Hynes should bow out. The same goes for Raja Krishnamoorthi…
Comptroller - Dem Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Miller , David Dem 383,895 47%
Krishnamoorthi , Raja Dem 377,717 46%
Krislov , Clint Dem 62,729 8%
And Matt Murphy…
Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Illinois - 11118 of 11215 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Plummer , Jason GOP 236,445 34%
Murphy , Matt GOP 231,469 33%
…Adding… Jason Plummer isn’t waiting on Sen. Murphy to concede and has gone ahead and declared victory. From a press release…
Jason Plummer, Republican candidate for Lt. Governor declared victory this morning. With 99percent of all Illinois precincts reporting, Plummer leads his closest opponent by nearly 5000 votes. “Late last night, I accepted the congratulation of three of my opponents, this morning as the Republican Party’s Lt. Governor nominee, I look forward to out ticket coming together and beginning the work of creating a new brand of leadership in Springfield.” Plummer said.
Plummer and some of his supporters will attend the Republican Party Unity Breakfast this morning at the Union League Club in Chicago.
We’ll have video from that unity breakfast later today.
* So, what happens next? The AP fills us in…
Right now, the results are unofficial. Election authorities will count late-arriving absentee ballots, randomly check some of the results, inspect voting equipment and then declare official winners.
That takes two weeks. Then the losing candidates might decide to seek a recount.
Unlike some states, Illinois doesn’t automatically conduct recounts in close races. Officials say the candidates have to go to court and ask for one.
They also have to pay for the recount.
- Angry Republican - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 6:57 am:
I thought standard operating procedure for Dem’s is to keep demanding a recount until they achieve the desired results. Can Quinn demand a recount in the Republican race if he doesn’t want to run against Brady?
- Tax Eater III - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:10 am:
BUT…..Quinn should want to run against Brady…Bill Brady is probably the easiest of the top 3…or maybe 4…of the GOP candidates - for him. Brady is a gift to Quinn…maybe the IL GOP snatched defeat from the jaws of victory one more time.
- Angry Chicagoan - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:19 am:
AR, if you would join the reality based community, you’d realize that it’s Dillard that the Democrats fear. Well, the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, that is — I get the sense a good many Democratic legislators and Democratic-leaning voters would simply vote for Dillard and not give it a second thought.
- Nearly Normal - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:33 am:
Anybody who did not vote because they think their vote does not count should not be grousing about the results. Votes count.
They had plenty of opportunity to vote what with early voting, absentee, and polls open from 6 a.m to 7:00 p.m.
Turnout was extremely low in my precinct — 211 votes total.
For that we set up at 5 a.m. and were there until 8 p.m.
- Bookworm - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:51 am:
Don’t misunderestimate Brady, should he win. He may lose some votes from independents and Democrats, but he will hang onto other votes from otherwise disaffected Republicans who would sit out November or go third party in the event of a Dillard (or especially a McKenna) win.
As I said last night, if Brady wins, he will need to shift a little more to the center; if Dillard wins, he will need to shift more to the right. I think both guys know how to pick their battles.
- George - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:53 am:
not sure I agree that Hynes and Krishnamoorthi should concede until more is known regarding the number of provisional and absentee ballots or irregularities
- Andy Martin - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:05 am:
The outcome of the primary is a disaster for both the so-called “Combine” and the so-called “conservative” win of the primary. Look for my analysis later today at my blogs. Many people will be amazed to see I consider myself the big winner, but wait for my analysis this morning. I will NOT be at the “unity breakfast.”
Andy Martin
Republican for U. S. Senator
- Andy Martin - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:06 am:
That’s “conservative” winG of the party. Sorry for the typo.
Andy Martin
- Anon - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:09 am:
I don’t think anyone will be amazed that you consider yourself the big winner Andy.
- phocion - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:20 am:
Andy Martin,
You and your loathesome campaign are done. Go away! Or, better yet, stick around. Your ilk only helps Mark Kirk.
- Andy Martin - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:26 am:
Rich, I would not have posted my reply to you, but your commenter requries a polite response, so here goes:
Rich,
I love your sense of humor. And I always enjoy reading your insights and analysis. But take a look at what I have to say and see if you agree, after you read my take on yesterday.
No, I did not get the most votes. But I am not a conventional politician, so you can’t judge me by that metric. In any event, we are writing the “real” story of yesterday today. Enjoy.
Would you be offended if I posted my take as a comment? (There won’t be any offensive attacks; “just the facts, ma’am.”) If you would, I won’t.
We dined on filet mignon at The Palm last night, to celebrate the election. Life is good.
Best wishes as always,
Andy
[As for my detractors, of which here are a few, where do I make a donation to replenish their supply of pimple cream?]
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:29 am:
Andy, in your case, don’t you mean wingnut?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:32 am:
Plummer worked it. I pulled a GOP ballot in 2008 and live in Cook. Plummer was the only GOP candidate in any contest that I received mail from, about four pieces.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:36 am:
Who is Andy Martin?
- babs - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:41 am:
Heard David Orr say that the precincts that are still out may not have any more votes to count. Precincts are listed as out if one machine isn’t counted and that may be due to a machine not being used and then workers forgetting to pull the counter. So he’s not expecting many votes to come from those precincts. More important are the absentee and then the provisional votes still to be counted and some still to be received.
- Niles Township - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:49 am:
Many people will be amazed to see I consider myself the big winner, but wait for my analysis this morning
——————
Andy…please leave IL and go somewhere else. You’ve been a mockery for years.
- LincolnLounger - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:50 am:
Yes, Andy, we’re all breathless waiting for your delusional “analysis”. The Republican unity ought to be insisting that Andy Martin face any outstanding warrants he may have. Like from Florida. Maybe he was then still using Anthony Martin-Trigona. It’s hard to keep all the litigation, different names, slander, and mental disease straight.
- The Court Jester - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 8:59 am:
who is Andy Martin??
- The Court Jester - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:00 am:
sorry, didnt see dan’s post.. Will someone please explain Andy Martin??
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:01 am:
Court Jester, just google “Anthony Robert Martin Trigona” and you’ll find out what you need to know.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:05 am:
–Will someone please explain Andy Martin??–
Don’t bother. Be happy that you don’t know.
- Ann T. Wingnut - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:25 am:
Now here’s a (scary) thought…
Martin/Keyes for write-in candidates for Gov/Lt. Gov
- LT from Sprinfield - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:50 am:
Vote counting has restarted…and Brady increases his lead to 751
- Captain Flume - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:57 am:
It’s going to be an interesting spring session for the Senate Republicans.
- Downstate Commissioner - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:05 am:
When I found out that Andy Martin was Anthony Martin Trigona, he lost my attention-just hit Wikipedia, and it was worse than I remembered. I agree with others, Andy, just go away.
- JW from Springfield - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 10:05 am:
Quinn has a right to celebrate a tough win but he should also realize this was not a vote of confidence by the voters, this was a wake up call.
- Anon III - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 11:00 am:
lyrics for Quinn/Brady
They tried to make me go to recount but I said ‘no, no, no’
Yes I’ve been high and low but when I come back you’ll know know know
I ain’t got the time and if my party thinks I’m fine
They tried to make me go to recount but I won’t go go go
(Apologies to Amy Winehouse)
- Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 11:01 am:
I’d never looked at Andy Martin’s campaign site, but it has brought much joy to my dull morning. I can’t stop laughing.
- Mark Johnson - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 4:59 pm:
A little history. Brady won his first seat as a State Rep against Gordon Ropp with an 8 vote margin. Went to a recount. He won. Brady has a penchant for winning close races.