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Live-blogging the results, Part 5 - It ain’t over ’til it’s over, unless you’re David Orr
Wednesday, Feb 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * 1:36 am - New numbers in the GOP governor’s race…
546-vote margin. Dillard made up about 900 votes since the last tabulation. I think that was from the uncounted (by AP) votes in Lake County. Dillard is outpolling Brady 3-1 in the city and almost 4-1 in suburban Cook. * The Tribune wasted no time in going after Scott Lee Cohen…
* As I told you earlier, Raja Krishnamoorthi refused to concede. But there’s little chance of overturning this one…
That’s almost 6,000 votes. In the age of electronic balloting, that’s gonna be pretty darned tough, if not impossible to overturn. Here’s Rep. David Miller’s speech… * 1:49 am - New numbers…
510 votes. That’s a 36-vote pickup in the six precincts counted since the last update - 6 votes per precinct. If that trend holds, Dillard picks up a net 708 votes - meaning he has the potential of winning by 198 votes. LOL. Recount city, baby. There are 117 GOP precincts still to be counted in suburban Cook and Chicago. Only one other precinct remains unaccounted for. I’m not sure where that one is, or maybe AP and I have different numbers for Cook/Chicago. * Clinton County hasn’t yet counted 3 precincts. Brady is doing very well there, and if current trends hold, he picks up about 35 or 36 net votes. * St. Clair County hasn’t yet counted one precinct. Based on current trends, that’s a couple/three votes net for Brady. * 2:11 am - New numbers…
503-vote margin. That’s only a seven-vote pickup, even though 21 precincts were counted. Not many Republicans in those precincts. Somebody on the Brady team might want to call Clinton and St. Clair counties and see if they can finish counting tonight, but he may not need it. Fun. * 2:24 am - David Orr has suspended tallying. From a press release…
That really sucks. * I just got an e-mail from the Jim Ryan campaign…
That explains some things. * Well, since Cook, Chicago, St. Clair and Clinton counties have all suspended counting, it’s time to end the blog portion of our program.
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- Honest Abe - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:42 am:
Illinois State Board of Elections web site is on the fritz and the Chicago Board of Elections is not fully updated. Love the transparency of Internet technology. What a pathetic joke.
- Bill-O' the Clown - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:46 am:
Sun-Times… 118 precincts left, Brady up by 510.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:46 am:
Ha!
- dave - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:48 am:
Com-on Billy!! we need a conservtive to represent the republican party in IL!!
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:50 am:
They trashed alexi too! Rich how does this rate for election nights for you?
- Bookworm - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:51 am:
Seems to me that Brady is a winner tonight no matter what the results… he’s been careful not to claim victory, and to emphasize party unity… showing a lot more class than the guys on the other side of the aisle (Dems) are!
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:51 am:
cook county says 30 left to count. David Orr told abc that many of them dont have people in them. they are being hand counted. thus the delay.
http://results.cookcountyclerk.com/020210/StaticSummaryeid020210jurnullptynull.html
- Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:56 am:
There’s 1 precinct in St. Clair and 3 precincts in Clinton not counted on the county’s official websites. Based on earlier votes, those four should give Brady another net 35 votes.
- Newt Rier - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:56 am:
Glad to see New Trier township voted against that idiotic tax hike.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 1:57 am:
LOL. Holy moly.
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:00 am:
175 million dollars just to renovate the school. that’s the cost of BUILDING 6 chicago publich high schools.
can we get an early winners and losers?
Peter Fitzgerald is definitley a huge winner. 2 archenemies crash-mckenna, hastert jr. 3 of his former guys plummer, kinzinger, and higgins win big primaries.
Team America. duh.
- Michelle Flaherty - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:01 am:
So Schillerstrom’s early votes could indeed influence the outcome.
- Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:06 am:
97 precincts left, Brady leads by 503.
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:09 am:
there needs to be an investigation as to why this is taking this long. it took 2 hours tops in massachusettes. david orr needs a replacement. totally jv. these guys have one job, that’s tonight.
- Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:10 am:
Maybe it’s a Chicago thing “shore”, but if there’s no people in the precincts, what are they hand counting in the remaining 24 precincts?
- UI Chancellor - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:13 am:
Rich, are you planning on sleeping? You still need to write your capitol fax write-up, haha
- BradyismyMan - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:14 am:
damn, i am so stressed out!!
- George - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:17 am:
so how do provisional and absentee ballots factor in to all this - i wonder how many there might be still to be counted?
- UI Chancellor - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:18 am:
Republican primary
Brady 154,646 20.3%
Dillard 154,143 20.2%
Brady +503
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:18 am:
All of the absentee and early voting ballots should’ve been counted by now. Provisionals is another story, however.
- Hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:19 am:
Winners:
The Downstate Republican Party
The ad wizard who created the Scott Lee Cohen jobs ad
Toni Preckwinkle
Losers:
DuPage County GOP
Jim Edgar & Dawn Clark Netsch
Todd Stroger
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:19 am:
===You still need to write your capitol fax write-up,===
How can I write when it’s so up in the air?
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:25 am:
the mass race was done by 9pm. this is pathetic. chuck goudie at abc 7 had the interview with orr. he said the machines didnt work in some places and that the votes had to be driven over and hand counted. some of the places he said might not have votes or votes for gop races. I am telling you what he said.
- George - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:27 am:
thanks, Rich. I’d think provisionals would generally break against brady? no idea how big this factor would be - I wonder if/when/how many provisionals are counted
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:29 am:
God bless you, Rich, you’re still going strong at this goofy hour. I tried to call it a night and couldn’t sleep. Good luck knocking out a Fax for today. Heck, send it late-only a real butthead would complain after this night.
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:29 am:
also you all didn’t see it, but bill brady skypeing with carol marin was priceless on nbc. just great. he looked like he was in his basement with a brady sign behind him. they reffered to it as his bunker.
the mckenna runaway was ugly.
- BradyismyMan - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:32 am:
SHORE - that was awesome, I was supporting Brady in BLoomington!! He had no media there, and it just went to show how much of a grassroots effort he has had
- UI Chancellor - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:35 am:
It’s a Pyrrhic victory for the downstate GOP.
- Niles Township - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:39 am:
That’s almost 6,000 votes. In the age of electronic balloting, that’s gonna be pretty darned tough, if not impossible to overturn
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I assume that applies to Quinn’s nearly indentical lead?
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:41 am:
yeah. brady got 5 percent in lake county. 5 percent, thats below proft and in ralph nader territory. I give downstate credit, you guys take a lot of you know what and you came together and put plummer and brady in there. Brady looked on tv like he was having the time of his life. The nbc affiliate up here posted that team mckenna was offering free glasses of wine earlier in the night and there was a shot of what looked like some priest-in full garb at the mckenna victory party.
It’s also worth noting that as we start a new decade this season marks the passing of a lot of familiar faces from the scene
stroger, hynes, burris,jim ryan, perhaps quinn, hamos, coulson, hastert. That’s a lot of elections for those guys and families.
on the other hand some new ones
plummer, dold, seals, hamilton chang, kirk-getting elevated, alexi, david hoffman, kinzinger, perhaps hughes.
judy baar doesn’t fit here.
- Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:43 am:
With 118 precincts left to count Brady’s up by 510 votes, according to the Sun-Times.
Cook county’s still reporting 24 precincts not counted. St. Clair has one left. Clinton County still had three left.
At this point we’re just guessing, but if the AP shows 97 precincts left, four of which are downstate (which is a +35 for Brady), and at least 24 are uncounted in non-Chicago Cook County (-260 for Brady), that leaves 69 percincts. Assuming those 69 or City of Chicago which voted like the rest of Cook County (and just happen to be the same size and turn out as the 24), then let’s divide 69 by 24 which comes out to 2.875. Multiply by by the 260 net votes for Dillard that comes out to 747.5.
Thus Brady’s 510 votes margin increases by 35 for the two downstate counties, to a total of 545, but then loses 260 for Cook County, which comes to 285 margin, less the prospective 748 vote deficit in Chicago, which puts him 463 votes behind Dillard when this is all done and counted.
That of course assumes the unidentified uncounted precincts are in the City of Chicago and that they are comparable to other Cook County precincts, which I would think they wouldn’t be, at least in total GOP turnout. If the GOP turnout is half that of the suburban Cook County, then the hypothetical 748 would be cut to 374, which would enough for Dillard to win by 89 votes.
Either way, no one can claim their vote didn’t count.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:46 am:
===I assume that applies to Quinn’s nearly indentical lead?===
Yes.
Downstate, those precincts are in Chicago. Not sure where they are. They could have almost no GOP votes. It is, after all, Chicago.
This is going to recount city. Period.
- Niles Township - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:47 am:
One last comment Rich:
When you asked for predictions yesterday/last week (?), I believe I had Quinne edging Hynes by 500 - 1000 votes with a recount in play…well I was off a little, but not too bad.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:47 am:
if the numbers hold…
pat quinn/scott lee cohen has a very nice ring to it. a former honest reformer turned chicago dem machine politician and pawn broker woman beater.
nice and just what pat quinn would deserve!
the ultimate sleaze ticket.
- Niles Township - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:49 am:
nice and just what pat quinn would deserve!
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If it is against Brady..they could run me & you and we would win. Brady is way to the right for this state. Dillard is a whole other equation. By the way, WCW, now that the primary is over (and it is over), I assume we can join together in harmony to back Mark Kirk
.
- Hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:50 am:
Have we got all the results we’re gonna get tonight?
I noticed this at the top of the Cook Co. page:
“To allow for public viewing, tallying of results is suspended until 9 a.m. on Wednesday, February 3. Counting of the remaining 24 suburban Cook County precincts will be conducted at the Clerk’s election warehouse, 4545 W. Cermak, Chicago.”
- Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:51 am:
I know what you mean about low turnout for the GOP in some precincts, check out the East St. Louis results. Dan Proft received one vote in the entire city of 25 precincts.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:55 am:
NT,
of course! no doubt about it whatsoever…Mark Kirk is gonna make an excellent U.S. and he’ll do all of us illinoisans proud! but, i still want mark kirk to run this race as if his life depended upon it— i want his november victory to be decisive as lastnight’s.
this election takes me back to the cliffhanger gore v. bush race in 2000.
- 4 percent - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 2:57 am:
Tom Cross just earned the crown of “The Biggest Loser.”
He put all of his eggs into the McKenna basket which came tumbling down in a weak 3rd place finish. Plus he was the ONLY leader who lost an incumbent (Suzie Bassi) and almost lost Kay Hatcher.
His caucus should be asking the tough questions.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 3:24 am:
Hisgirlfriday, your question is answered in the post, along with that very statement by the county clerk.
- Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 6:35 am:
An absolute must-read. Nate Silver at 538.com did some extrapolation at 1:30 AM. By his method…Brady would win. By ONE. I know the data is a bit outdated now but still, take a look (and a grain of salt): http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/recount-all-but-assured-in-illinois.html
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 6:44 am:
Yeah, I saw it.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 6:46 am:
well, maybe the intertubes are clogged everywhere cause this is what was in my box this morning as I checked for Groupon, and,
no, these were not caught in spam:
Hynes go vote at 1:20 am, and e nite invite at 1:28 a.m.
Quinn go vote at 1:37 am
Julie Hamos go vote and send me money past 2 am
watching the tv to see which pundits are on….
- Sarge - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 7:02 am:
Re: the 538.com analysis — have all the city precincts been counted? Last I looked there seemed to be around 70 of those still out. Granted, there might not be many GOP votes in there. But Dillard would certainly benefit.
- fedup dem - Wednesday, Feb 3, 10 @ 9:54 am:
Why shouldn’t anyone be surprised by David Orr’s ineptitude here? We have seen this pattern of administrative incompetence from him throughot his two decades as Cook County Clerk. Virtually everone knows that, particularly the suburban politcal leaders who have had to deal with Orr’s fourlups for years.
Yet when the Democratic suburban committeemen had a chance to question Orr back in September when he came before the party slatemakers, NONE of them bothered to ask him a single question. Draw your own conclusions here.