* Because of the Blagojevich hearing right now, I don’t have a lot of time, but take a look at this Rasmussen poll which has Bill Brady stomping Gov. Pat Quinn 48-35. Here’s the new result along with past Rasmussen polls in brackets….
Thirty-six percent (36%) of Illinois voters now approve of the job Quinn is doing as governor, down seven points from earlier this month. Sixty percent (60%) disapprove. […]
Sixty-four percent (64%) view Brady as conservative, while only 16% see him as being moderate.
Forty-seven percent (47%) say Quinn is politically liberal, but 31% see him as moderate.
Despite these ideological differences, Illinois voters have similar perceptions of the two candidates’ views. Forty-two percent (42%) see Brady’s views as being in the mainstream, and 41% say the same of Quinn’s. But 38% of voters see Quinn’s views as extreme, while 32% feel that way about Brady’s. However, over 20% of voters have no opinion of either man’s views.
Brady is viewed Very Favorably by 16% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 19%.
Quinn earns Very Favorable marks from 10% and Very Unfavorable reviews from 33%.
. . . I guess I’ll add that I was surprised that this little straw polls very first question was about whether he was “extreme.” To me, that seems like a loaded or leading question.
I find Quinns views very mainstream. Each morning, he sticks his finger in the wind and determines his views…hence, Finger in the Wind Quinn. Seriously, they are not too extreme on either ideology.
Pat Quinn’s views are firmly in the mainstream of politics in Illinois. Pat Quinn is a status quo kind of guy. He’s not looking to take on entrenched special interests.
If Blago ends up walking or with a hung jury (see post below) and Illinois residents are left feeling that justice was thwarted, I anticipate these numbers will only get worse for Quinn and better for Brady.
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:05 pm:
Only 32% viewing Brady as extreme needs to change. I don’t understand how it can be that low right now, but something definitely needs to be done about it.
That “extreme” question really needs to be broken down a bit. Given that the respondents may be thinking only about the economy to the exclusion of all else, they could be thinking that he represents their views on that.
If they are thinking about social issues, then they might indeed think his views extreme.
I’m betting on the former.
Your comment on how Quinn needs to address this is spot on. The thing that I think, though, is that Quinn will frame the debate around the social issues. If he were to read the polling like I do (It’s the economy, stupid.), the social issues are a waste of time.
Quinn needs to get his arms around the economy and how his plan can be presented to the voters.
Cincinnatus, I started to write a similar comment, that it would be useful if they asked people if they were aware of Brady/Quinns positions on issue x, give them the position, then ask if they think that position is extreme etc.
But it occurs to me a more accurate assesment is to not use a push poll type question and gauge the current perception as was done here.
Quinn has been horibble about getting out ad’s and campang material, and the lack of a campaign has caught up with him. News coverage isnot the same as campainging.
A few fluff pieces and interviews in the news and some sporadic ads from the DGA are giving him no presence with the public.
Quinn is in a onster pit, but h does have time to rescue himself if he starts campaigning. Look at the Gap Hynes closed.
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:22 pm:
- Quinn needs to get his arms around the economy and how his plan can be presented to the voters. -
Apparently he just needs to make up wild claims like Brady does about balancing the budget in 1 year with a 10% cut and no tax increase.
Perhaps the reason votes don’t see Brady as extreme is because they don’t think conservatism = I WILL EAT YOUR BABIES!!! NOMNOMNOM!!! contrary to the opinion of the DGA.
Quinn’s fate was probably written as soon as he took the oath of office. Mission impossible. And it may very well be for Brady too should he pull this off. I hope the voters realize how he would enter office with the serious, personally inflicted handicap of being an anti tax ideologue.
Assume for a minute Brady wins (seems to be more likely every week) and assume he somehow manages to balance to budget a la NJ (fat chance), he would then be talked about as a possible candidate for President in 2012.
It’s like I keep saying, everyone is worried about money and corruption. So every time Quinn wants to raise taxes or give his staff a raise he is just adding fuel to the fire. On top of that, he was part of the Blago administration in the eyes of the lay person. Those are the issues that the independent voter is looking at and it is making a very easy decision for them.
Quinn can’t pass the smell test, he’s done a rotten job. Brady needs to look good on TV and not say anything to scare the b-jesus out of the low information voters.
- Nearly Normal - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
Just heard that Sen. Durbin had a tumor removed that is a rare form of stomach cancer.
That “extreme” question really needs to be broken down a bit. Given that the respondents may be thinking only about the economy to the exclusion of all else, they could be thinking that he represents their views on that.
Perhaps… except his economic views, when actually practiced, are also extreme.
Pat Quinn sure did face Mission Impossible, given where the Democrats in the Legislature have taken this State in the last 8 years, from a fiscal standpoint. He has not helped himself, though, and the new media reports about increased State salaries are a real killer.
Hopefully, this is all a portent of fundamental change in Illinois politics. If not, we will continue to circle the drain for a year or so, before starting down the pipe.
There comes a time during every campaign when the dye is set and just the margin of the outcome is the only thing undecided.
Quinn and the democrats are facing the near certain prospect of being thrown from office and there is very little they can do at this time to alter the trajectory.
It is time for everyone to put thier money and their time where it can salvage some races lower down from the top of the ticket tsunami.
“Perhaps… except his economic views, when actually practiced, are also extreme.”
That may be true (or not), dave, but there isn’t much doubt in my mind, based on polling data, that the message is right in the sweet spot for voters in this cycle.
they don’t care. I said when this ad campaign started it was 2002 all over again for the national democrats, when they tried to make the election about cuts to medicare or something when the real issue was terrorism.
On the other hand, Jason Plummer as the lt.governor is an embarassment.
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind. The answer is blowing in the wind.
- Dan Bureaucrat - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:22 pm:
This is stunning, especially since he was handed a real shot at this when Brady beat out Dillard.
Quinn needs a campaign manager that will help him produce an illusion of strength and conviction, and fast. Although in all fairness, he probably micromanages all their decisions anyway.
At this point, Quinn can’t do anything to win this. He is what he is, and the state budget picture sure ain’t getting better. Brady would have to self-destruct on his own.
@ D.B.
Let’s be honest, nobody can keep Quinn from making bad decisions and stupid statements. He has always been a wild card and that hasn’t changed. I feel badly for Nuckels.
Earlier in the year, I thought his social views and lack of statewide exposure would do Brady in. Now, I’m not so sure because the economic indicators are so shaky. He may have been around for a while but he’s new to a lot of voters and the new pol with a plan (he needs to work on that plan though) may be in the best position to win this November.
Shore is right on here. Anyone who thinks Quinn can beat Brady using the social issues angle has several nuts loose. I am not saying social issues aren’t important. It’s just that the economic/budget/corruption issues are so overwhelming. People do not even have to know who Brady is. He ain’t a democrat - game over.
I’ve come across many Republican and Independant voters who voted for Obama in 2008. They regret that vote, today.
They can’t take back the vote. Nor can they vote again on Obama until 2012.
Hence, I believe that the frustation that independants have with the national Democrats is now spilling over into the topline race of Illinois Governor.
Bad week for Quinn bad poll and his bill signing with Rep Monique Davis and Black Pastors and they refused to endorse him. Maybe next time Quinn will do some outreach to the black community before election time. Down 13 point with Black vote comprising 12 percent of state wide democratic vote!
Quinn was already having a hard time raising money. This doesn’t help.
He needs Brady to help him out. By talking.
Fortunately for him, if the Chicago press gets the idea that Brady is running away with it, they’ll start taking him seriously and play him rougher. Brady will have to be awfully disciplined not to step in it.
The economy dominates, of course, but I wouldn’t put away those social issue spots yet if I were Quinn. It’s August. Plenty of time to focus.
If Brady gets put on the spot and has to explain his flim-flammery, he loses any credibility as some economic guru.
I was on vacation in Michigan last week when they had their primary. They have a few economic problems up there, but the dominant issue was abortion.
The Dem mayor of Lansing came from behind to smoke the anti-abortion Dem speaker in the primary by whaling on abortion morning, noon and night.
The top GOP contenders, in a tight race, had to put on spots touting their own anti-abortion bona fides to keep their true believers from going over and helping the speaker.
The GOP spots also called for getting government off the back of business, LOL, in Michigan. That’s no way to talk about your major business investor.
Primaries run way different than generals. The Dems from Lansing probably agreed on most everything else other than the abortion issue. Same with those GOP contenders.
Right here, right now, in this environment, all polling shows that voters care about jobs/economy/deficits to the exclusion of almost everything else.
Quinn’s message is unfocused, and his money spent on knocking Brady’s social views were wasted bucks in an already cash-strapped campaign.
If Quinn and Brady had the same economic vision, I would hammer Brady hard on social issues were I Quinn, and given the liberal nature of northern Illinois, he would probably win.
I cannot believe that politicians have to learn this lesson every cycle: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Nine election cycles out of ten, the economy is the issue.
Cincy, it’s just another tool in the bag. He has to convince folks that Brady is full of it on his tax and budget plans (or lack thereof) and also hit the social issues.
I think Quinn has to frame his argument on Brady’s economic voodoo around Brady’s tax returns. That cuts through a lot of clutter in a hurry and honks people off.
Brady, for his part, might not have to do much of anything except keep quiet if Quinn doesn’t start raising some money in a hurry.
Rich, I disagree. I think even you would agree that a 10-13 deficit in an August poll is not hopeless. My point is that a strong Repub candidate would trounce Quinn easily in November in light of the negative economic climate. Brady is a weak Repub opponent and he still has a sizable but not an insurmountable lead.
Quinn’s numbers keep falling, the ILGOP just starting hitting on the MGT program, and 62% of the poll respondents said Brady is a conservative and he still whomped on Quinn. The ZO NOES, RIGHT WING RADICAL attack isn’t going to work.
Quinn may have been handed Mission Impossible, but he certainly has committed alot of unforced errors along the way. I bet even Quinn would be protesting Quinn’s 20% pay raises if this were 30 years ago.
When was the last time you saw an incumbent governor behind by that much in August who then went on to win?
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:53 pm:
I am not surprised by any of this at all. Brady should go in for the kill and try to be up as much as possible as soon as possible. Going into October he should plan to be no less than a respectable 8 percentage points ahead, and certainly more if he can manage it. I expect quinn to fan the flames and bang the drum throughout much of sep and oct because he still has considerable amounts of cash on hand, or at least he should; he really hasn’t spent much on ads thus far.
Brady hammers away on payraises, state fiscal crisis ala blago/quinn, MGT Push, Quinn’s leadship inabilities, overall democratic failures (e.g., corruption/abuse) and does a blitz of split screen type ads of Todd Stroger and Quinn throughout October, Brady will win. Brady has a smorgasbord of issues from which to tap into to deliver some mortal blows to Quinn.
As with another poster, I have been wondering about Mike Madigan too lately. ( I just might write the book about him myself, since no one else seems poised to do so. and a book about him MUST be done preferably before he leaves us)
I’m guessing that Mike Madigan doesn’t really care about the 2010 gubernatorial race, and so long as Lisa wasn’t in it, probably never really did. So long as he keeps his House majority and his friends/interests happy, what the heck does he care about the gov? Besides, he’s more powerful than any illinois governor could hope tp be.
A machine type of guy, I think that deep down Madigan agreed with Daley that Art Turner should’ve been given the lt. guv nod. Both Daley and Madigan understand the fundamentals and how one must solidify his *base first! Madigan let Quinn have his way on the Simon pick so as to avoid any incessant whining from Quinn about not getting his pick. So Madigan says to Quinn, okay you got your way—it’s on you to make it happen.
madigan also has his hands tied with the Berrios race, and that race is of far greater importance to him. He and Berrios are buddies, and have the same interests at heart. neither is true with Quinn. the bottom line here is that quinn is on his own. i think madigan has long resigned himself to the fact that at least there’s lisa and jesse white.
*Not having Turner by his side as a runningmate is not the only reason why Quinn is adrift with black voters, in my humble opinion. at this point having all the black ministers and pols in the world by his side won’t help. he needed to court moderates and independents. it’s too late to focus on black voters from this point foward. the weekely news reports about multiple shootings each weekend, or seemingly and increasingly everday, on the west and south sides of chicago don’t bode well for the dems with black voters either. Chicago has been controlled by dems for more than 75 years. If you’re walking around touting 30+ years of political activisim/experience as a Chicago-based dem, then blacks are probably wondering what exactly have you been doing (for them) and why are their neighborhoods, schools etc. so persistently bad? And, if you can’t answer or have no real record to show that you were on the front lines trying to make things better them, then you can forget it on election day, pal.
It “could” happen, but not this year. Brady would have to be exposed as the Illinois Chapter President of NAMBLA at this point.
One of the things I found interesting in the cross-tabs is that Obama and Quinn’s “strong disapprove” numbers in Illinois are the same. I read that as saying that not only is Quinn losing among moderates, his base isn’t even strongly behind him.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:31 pm:
Hynes took a lot of the democratic base from quinn. Hynes got moderate dems and would have done well with moderate republicans, as well as independents.
Rasmussen predicted last year that if Quinn were the dem nominee, he would lose.
- WizzardOfOzzie - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:41 pm:
This is surprising. 15 pts? 5-7 can be dealt with. Also, Brady is getting uncomfortably close to that magical 50% mark.
In a multi-candidate race, that mark has no magic at all, especially this year.
- Richard Afflis - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:54 pm:
The wild card to look out for between now and November is how badly do the Cook County Democrats want this election. This is a redistricting year coming up and there are other issues that a Democratic Governor would better assist with. The Cook County Democratic party knows how to get out the vote wheb motivated. This race is far from over.
Don’t think it has anything to do with any DGA or anybodies ads Quinn cannot and he has proved it time and time again run the state and he got the only opponent he could beat and he has week after week stuck his foot in his mouth not one lick of common sense
You have a point Rich. I can not ever remember an incumbent governor being this far behind in August polls. If my recollection is correct Gov Dan Walker polled fairly close with Mike Howlett in the Dem primary of 76. Those were also horrible economic times. Run away inflation, 15% mortgage rates. Howlett beat Walker fairly easily (with the help of King Richard I)in the primary and then got clobbered by Thompson in the general election.
How far behind was Quinn in January? Was it 15 points? As I recall, he managed to pull that one out. Don’t count him out — he’s a come-from-behind runner.
Rich beat me to it, but I’ll go ahead and post this.
Late January 2010, the Trib poll had Quinn LEADING Hynes by 4 pts. (44-40) after having held a double digit lead. You have to remember, too, that Hynes had the MGT Push (early release) gift handed to him at the time. This time, Brady has the same gift and hasn’t finished unwrapping it.
And if you look at Quinn’s numbers downstate against Ryan, you’re going to take one huge gulp because he got roasted but good. And if those numbers are even reasonably close in Cook and the ‘burbs, a downstate blowout will make all the difference.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:44 pm:
For those of you harping on the it’s only august meme…
sure, but this isn’t the primary. August 2009-February 2010 was considerable, and what with the holidays, it was an enternity.
this ain’t the primary,though. this is hte general. the window here is two months (at mid-point we can count August as pretty much gone).
are voters still waiting to decide? yes, some are. but, quinn has no good stories to sell them to win the multitudes over. he has nothing to say that can play outside the base. sure, he can try to make brady look bad and go negative in all of sept. and all of oct., but won’t that come off as a little, um, desperate? voters will think quinn is trying to pull a fast one on them and trick them. (and, if I were brady I would tell voters just that)
Holy Catz,
I don’t understand your comment about Quinn vs. Ryan, downstate. Which race is that referring to?
As for Downstate turning out for Brady - you can count on it. I have yet to see a Quinn sign in my neck of the woods. And the Brady signs are out in force.
Downstate will be doing their part, but the collar counties are the key.
The poll was taken after the big Obama visit. Did that get any media in Chicago? If so, it means that it looks to have had no impact on Quinn’s numbers, meaning the One won’t be able to pull him out…if he even wants to.
I’m in agreement with you. I’m simply saying that against Ryan in the SOS race (61 Ryan 35 Quinn) Quinn didn’t run well downstate and I think downstate will show up big for Brady as well.
I don’t think Quinn will catch Brady. Brady will win downstate big..really big. I don’t hear people talking about social issues but I do hear them talking about the great Illinois economy. Quinn had his chance and didn’t impress people and my impression from talking to people in this area (south-central) is that they want to give someone else a chance.
- Another downstater - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 6:34 pm:
Blowout does not describe the utter thumping Quinn is going to take downstate. Nobody out here even cares what Brady thinks or does. He’s not from Chicago, that’s all they need to know.
I predict he’s going to do a Jim Edgar circa 1990 style win - downstate landslide, barely take the collars, lose Cook.
How bad did Quinn run against Ryan downstate. Pat lost Rock Island County, normally a high 50s Democratic County, with 37% of the vote; Peoria County, normally an even split, Quinn rec’d 31%, and Sangamon County, Quinn rec’d 29%. That’s how bad the hill can be for local democrats to climb in a GOP blowout year.
Is Quinn wearing the jacket alone for total Dem control, Blago, bad economy, budget, etc?
You can’t really say current polls show a Dem blowout. I doubt if Lisa or Jesse White are worried. Are any Dem congressional seats in play? Not that I’ve seen.
Heck, Rasmussen has Alexi neck and neck with Kirk. You’d think a millionaire whose bank got taken over by the FDIC then got a tax refund to boot would be a goner in a Dem blowout year, even with Kirk’s misrememberings.
It seems a little mercurial to me still. Two rounds ago, it was a three point spread. But Quinn needs money for TV and in a hurry.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:34 am:
This sounds about right.
- Henry - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:37 am:
I like Brady. There are a good many who do.
- Conservative Republican - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:37 am:
All right!!
- Henry - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:38 am:
. . . I guess I’ll add that I was surprised that this little straw polls very first question was about whether he was “extreme.” To me, that seems like a loaded or leading question.
- Segatari - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:40 am:
Rich Whitney is losing ground…assuming he has the bulk of the “some other candidate” poll - he’s dropped five points.
- Wumpus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:42 am:
I find Quinns views very mainstream. Each morning, he sticks his finger in the wind and determines his views…hence, Finger in the Wind Quinn. Seriously, they are not too extreme on either ideology.
- just sayin' - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:44 am:
After a year of Brady, my guess is voters will be wishing for the comeback of Blago.
- Luke - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:44 am:
Pat Quinn’s views are firmly in the mainstream of politics in Illinois. Pat Quinn is a status quo kind of guy. He’s not looking to take on entrenched special interests.
- Levois - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:46 am:
So what’s with Brady being too conservative for Illinois? Especially if that’s considered less mainstream than it is extreme?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:52 am:
Extreme wasn’t the first question, it was the 6th and 7th.
- Secret Square - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:54 am:
If Blago ends up walking or with a hung jury (see post below) and Illinois residents are left feeling that justice was thwarted, I anticipate these numbers will only get worse for Quinn and better for Brady.
- downstate hack - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:57 am:
After a year of Brady, my guess is voters will be wishing for the comeback of Blago.
Given what’s happened in the Chicago court room this morning Blago may be back.
(snark intended, but not necessarily proven)
- Lefty Lefty - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:02 pm:
It amazes me how poorly Quinn is doing his job. These numbers aren’t surprising at all.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:04 pm:
Note to Bill Brady:
Quick, send to campaign staffers to the Kirk camp, he needs help over there.
- Ghost - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:05 pm:
I wonder if Gov Brady will bring back Schnorf….
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:05 pm:
Only 32% viewing Brady as extreme needs to change. I don’t understand how it can be that low right now, but something definitely needs to be done about it.
- Vole - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:06 pm:
The poll responders blew it!
- Bill - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
==He’s not looking to take on entrenched special interests.==
He has already screwed a few of them and it looks like it is going to cost him big time. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
STL,
That “extreme” question really needs to be broken down a bit. Given that the respondents may be thinking only about the economy to the exclusion of all else, they could be thinking that he represents their views on that.
If they are thinking about social issues, then they might indeed think his views extreme.
I’m betting on the former.
Your comment on how Quinn needs to address this is spot on. The thing that I think, though, is that Quinn will frame the debate around the social issues. If he were to read the polling like I do (It’s the economy, stupid.), the social issues are a waste of time.
Quinn needs to get his arms around the economy and how his plan can be presented to the voters.
- Ghost - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:19 pm:
Cincinnatus, I started to write a similar comment, that it would be useful if they asked people if they were aware of Brady/Quinns positions on issue x, give them the position, then ask if they think that position is extreme etc.
But it occurs to me a more accurate assesment is to not use a push poll type question and gauge the current perception as was done here.
Quinn has been horibble about getting out ad’s and campang material, and the lack of a campaign has caught up with him. News coverage isnot the same as campainging.
A few fluff pieces and interviews in the news and some sporadic ads from the DGA are giving him no presence with the public.
Quinn is in a onster pit, but h does have time to rescue himself if he starts campaigning. Look at the Gap Hynes closed.
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:22 pm:
- Quinn needs to get his arms around the economy and how his plan can be presented to the voters. -
Apparently he just needs to make up wild claims like Brady does about balancing the budget in 1 year with a 10% cut and no tax increase.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:25 pm:
Careful what you wish for, you might get it.
- John Bambenek - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:27 pm:
Perhaps the reason votes don’t see Brady as extreme is because they don’t think conservatism = I WILL EAT YOUR BABIES!!! NOMNOMNOM!!! contrary to the opinion of the DGA.
- Vole - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:28 pm:
Quinn’s fate was probably written as soon as he took the oath of office. Mission impossible. And it may very well be for Brady too should he pull this off. I hope the voters realize how he would enter office with the serious, personally inflicted handicap of being an anti tax ideologue.
Future headline from Edgar: The Voters Blew It!
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:45 pm:
Here’s a fun speculative thought:
Assume for a minute Brady wins (seems to be more likely every week) and assume he somehow manages to balance to budget a la NJ (fat chance), he would then be talked about as a possible candidate for President in 2012.
Yoikes!
- A.B. - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:45 pm:
It’s like I keep saying, everyone is worried about money and corruption. So every time Quinn wants to raise taxes or give his staff a raise he is just adding fuel to the fire. On top of that, he was part of the Blago administration in the eyes of the lay person. Those are the issues that the independent voter is looking at and it is making a very easy decision for them.
- Louis Howe - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:47 pm:
Quinn can’t pass the smell test, he’s done a rotten job. Brady needs to look good on TV and not say anything to scare the b-jesus out of the low information voters.
- Nearly Normal - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
Just heard that Sen. Durbin had a tumor removed that is a rare form of stomach cancer.
Get well, Dick.
- dave - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
That “extreme” question really needs to be broken down a bit. Given that the respondents may be thinking only about the economy to the exclusion of all else, they could be thinking that he represents their views on that.
Perhaps… except his economic views, when actually practiced, are also extreme.
- OneMan - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:51 pm:
Seems to me if I was the DGA I would take a closer look at if my money was being well spent.
- Bubs - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:51 pm:
Pat Quinn sure did face Mission Impossible, given where the Democrats in the Legislature have taken this State in the last 8 years, from a fiscal standpoint. He has not helped himself, though, and the new media reports about increased State salaries are a real killer.
Hopefully, this is all a portent of fundamental change in Illinois politics. If not, we will continue to circle the drain for a year or so, before starting down the pipe.
- shore - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:57 pm:
women are more scared of the economy than brady’s social views.
election over.
- Garison - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:57 pm:
There comes a time during every campaign when the dye is set and just the margin of the outcome is the only thing undecided.
Quinn and the democrats are facing the near certain prospect of being thrown from office and there is very little they can do at this time to alter the trajectory.
It is time for everyone to put thier money and their time where it can salvage some races lower down from the top of the ticket tsunami.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:05 pm:
shore is right.
A majority of Illinois voters do not believe that Bill Brady is going to, or can, force his social views down their throats.
- Ghost - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:06 pm:
Garison makes a good point, its not like Obama or Hynes came from way behind to win/almost win elections right before people voted.
Once your behind in the polls campaigning never changes the outcome.
- OneMan - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:09 pm:
Yeah and if Blair Hull treated his ex-wife better we might very well have a different president.
This is not good for him, period.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:09 pm:
- dave - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
“Perhaps… except his economic views, when actually practiced, are also extreme.”
That may be true (or not), dave, but there isn’t much doubt in my mind, based on polling data, that the message is right in the sweet spot for voters in this cycle.
- shore - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:13 pm:
they don’t care. I said when this ad campaign started it was 2002 all over again for the national democrats, when they tried to make the election about cuts to medicare or something when the real issue was terrorism.
On the other hand, Jason Plummer as the lt.governor is an embarassment.
- N'ville - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:18 pm:
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind. The answer is blowing in the wind.
- Dan Bureaucrat - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:22 pm:
This is stunning, especially since he was handed a real shot at this when Brady beat out Dillard.
Quinn needs a campaign manager that will help him produce an illusion of strength and conviction, and fast. Although in all fairness, he probably micromanages all their decisions anyway.
- "Old Timer Dem" - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:29 pm:
Anyone who is not an incumbent stands a good chance to win! Brady is a nitwit and he still leads solidly in the polls.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:30 pm:
At this point, Quinn can’t do anything to win this. He is what he is, and the state budget picture sure ain’t getting better. Brady would have to self-destruct on his own.
- A.B. - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:31 pm:
@ D.B.
Let’s be honest, nobody can keep Quinn from making bad decisions and stupid statements. He has always been a wild card and that hasn’t changed. I feel badly for Nuckels.
- dupage dan - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:32 pm:
N’ville,
I just got over thinking about that Sheila Simon dirge and you had to go and start it over again.
D@#n you!!! LOL
- OneMan - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:32 pm:
He could have if he had vetoed the budget and given it back to the legislature.
He then could have played blame the leg and that would not have helped Brady and made Quinn look more like a leader.
- cassandra - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:34 pm:
Earlier in the year, I thought his social views and lack of statewide exposure would do Brady in. Now, I’m not so sure because the economic indicators are so shaky. He may have been around for a while but he’s new to a lot of voters and the new pol with a plan (he needs to work on that plan though) may be in the best position to win this November.
- dupage dan - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:34 pm:
Shore is right on here. Anyone who thinks Quinn can beat Brady using the social issues angle has several nuts loose. I am not saying social issues aren’t important. It’s just that the economic/budget/corruption issues are so overwhelming. People do not even have to know who Brady is. He ain’t a democrat - game over.
- "Old Timer Dem" - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:35 pm:
I have to agree with the Repubs. Sheila Simon is as off the wall as Quinn. If the Repubs had a strong candidate, Quinn would get trounced.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:36 pm:
===If the Repubs had a strong candidate, Quinn would get trounced. ===
A 15-point lead is a trouncing, dude.
- Angry Republican - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:44 pm:
The real question is what does Mike Madigan think of this?
- Downstater - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:46 pm:
I’ve come across many Republican and Independant voters who voted for Obama in 2008. They regret that vote, today.
They can’t take back the vote. Nor can they vote again on Obama until 2012.
Hence, I believe that the frustation that independants have with the national Democrats is now spilling over into the topline race of Illinois Governor.
- WELL... - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:48 pm:
Bad week for Quinn bad poll and his bill signing with Rep Monique Davis and Black Pastors and they refused to endorse him. Maybe next time Quinn will do some outreach to the black community before election time. Down 13 point with Black vote comprising 12 percent of state wide democratic vote!
- wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:49 pm:
Quinn was already having a hard time raising money. This doesn’t help.
He needs Brady to help him out. By talking.
Fortunately for him, if the Chicago press gets the idea that Brady is running away with it, they’ll start taking him seriously and play him rougher. Brady will have to be awfully disciplined not to step in it.
- MrJM - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:52 pm:
Won’t someone kill the messenger?
– MrJM
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 1:57 pm:
To keep out two hotly contested state-wide races interesting, let’s switch Brady and Kirk around in their races. This one is over.
But I still wish Dillard had won and Roskam had run. That would have been even more fun.
- Vole - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:12 pm:
“But I still wish Dillard had won and Roskam had run. That would have been even more fun.”
And hopeful. Until Brady wins, well, Quinn will do until the real mess gets here.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:14 pm:
The economy dominates, of course, but I wouldn’t put away those social issue spots yet if I were Quinn. It’s August. Plenty of time to focus.
If Brady gets put on the spot and has to explain his flim-flammery, he loses any credibility as some economic guru.
I was on vacation in Michigan last week when they had their primary. They have a few economic problems up there, but the dominant issue was abortion.
The Dem mayor of Lansing came from behind to smoke the anti-abortion Dem speaker in the primary by whaling on abortion morning, noon and night.
The top GOP contenders, in a tight race, had to put on spots touting their own anti-abortion bona fides to keep their true believers from going over and helping the speaker.
The GOP spots also called for getting government off the back of business, LOL, in Michigan. That’s no way to talk about your major business investor.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:27 pm:
wordslinger,
Primaries run way different than generals. The Dems from Lansing probably agreed on most everything else other than the abortion issue. Same with those GOP contenders.
Right here, right now, in this environment, all polling shows that voters care about jobs/economy/deficits to the exclusion of almost everything else.
Quinn’s message is unfocused, and his money spent on knocking Brady’s social views were wasted bucks in an already cash-strapped campaign.
If Quinn and Brady had the same economic vision, I would hammer Brady hard on social issues were I Quinn, and given the liberal nature of northern Illinois, he would probably win.
I cannot believe that politicians have to learn this lesson every cycle: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Nine election cycles out of ten, the economy is the issue.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
Yes, Michael, even 10 percent is a trouncing.
- Ray del Camino - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:34 pm:
It’s not a trouncing (or anything) till November. It’s an August snapshot of a not-yet-coherent campaign.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:35 pm:
Cincy, it’s just another tool in the bag. He has to convince folks that Brady is full of it on his tax and budget plans (or lack thereof) and also hit the social issues.
I think Quinn has to frame his argument on Brady’s economic voodoo around Brady’s tax returns. That cuts through a lot of clutter in a hurry and honks people off.
Brady, for his part, might not have to do much of anything except keep quiet if Quinn doesn’t start raising some money in a hurry.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:38 pm:
===a not-yet-coherent campaign. ===
That part you got right, perhaps unintentionally. lol
But there is gonna be a time very soon when this is all about the margin, not the result.
- "Old Timer Dem" - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:41 pm:
Rich, I disagree. I think even you would agree that a 10-13 deficit in an August poll is not hopeless. My point is that a strong Repub candidate would trounce Quinn easily in November in light of the negative economic climate. Brady is a weak Repub opponent and he still has a sizable but not an insurmountable lead.
- John Bambenek - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:45 pm:
Quinn’s numbers keep falling, the ILGOP just starting hitting on the MGT program, and 62% of the poll respondents said Brady is a conservative and he still whomped on Quinn. The ZO NOES, RIGHT WING RADICAL attack isn’t going to work.
Quinn may have been handed Mission Impossible, but he certainly has committed alot of unforced errors along the way. I bet even Quinn would be protesting Quinn’s 20% pay raises if this were 30 years ago.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:47 pm:
When was the last time you saw an incumbent governor behind by that much in August who then went on to win?
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:53 pm:
I am not surprised by any of this at all. Brady should go in for the kill and try to be up as much as possible as soon as possible. Going into October he should plan to be no less than a respectable 8 percentage points ahead, and certainly more if he can manage it. I expect quinn to fan the flames and bang the drum throughout much of sep and oct because he still has considerable amounts of cash on hand, or at least he should; he really hasn’t spent much on ads thus far.
Brady hammers away on payraises, state fiscal crisis ala blago/quinn, MGT Push, Quinn’s leadship inabilities, overall democratic failures (e.g., corruption/abuse) and does a blitz of split screen type ads of Todd Stroger and Quinn throughout October, Brady will win. Brady has a smorgasbord of issues from which to tap into to deliver some mortal blows to Quinn.
As with another poster, I have been wondering about Mike Madigan too lately. ( I just might write the book about him myself, since no one else seems poised to do so. and a book about him MUST be done preferably before he leaves us)
I’m guessing that Mike Madigan doesn’t really care about the 2010 gubernatorial race, and so long as Lisa wasn’t in it, probably never really did. So long as he keeps his House majority and his friends/interests happy, what the heck does he care about the gov? Besides, he’s more powerful than any illinois governor could hope tp be.
A machine type of guy, I think that deep down Madigan agreed with Daley that Art Turner should’ve been given the lt. guv nod. Both Daley and Madigan understand the fundamentals and how one must solidify his *base first! Madigan let Quinn have his way on the Simon pick so as to avoid any incessant whining from Quinn about not getting his pick. So Madigan says to Quinn, okay you got your way—it’s on you to make it happen.
madigan also has his hands tied with the Berrios race, and that race is of far greater importance to him. He and Berrios are buddies, and have the same interests at heart. neither is true with Quinn. the bottom line here is that quinn is on his own. i think madigan has long resigned himself to the fact that at least there’s lisa and jesse white.
*Not having Turner by his side as a runningmate is not the only reason why Quinn is adrift with black voters, in my humble opinion. at this point having all the black ministers and pols in the world by his side won’t help. he needed to court moderates and independents. it’s too late to focus on black voters from this point foward. the weekely news reports about multiple shootings each weekend, or seemingly and increasingly everday, on the west and south sides of chicago don’t bode well for the dems with black voters either. Chicago has been controlled by dems for more than 75 years. If you’re walking around touting 30+ years of political activisim/experience as a Chicago-based dem, then blacks are probably wondering what exactly have you been doing (for them) and why are their neighborhoods, schools etc. so persistently bad? And, if you can’t answer or have no real record to show that you were on the front lines trying to make things better them, then you can forget it on election day, pal.
:)
- John Bambenek - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
It “could” happen, but not this year. Brady would have to be exposed as the Illinois Chapter President of NAMBLA at this point.
One of the things I found interesting in the cross-tabs is that Obama and Quinn’s “strong disapprove” numbers in Illinois are the same. I read that as saying that not only is Quinn losing among moderates, his base isn’t even strongly behind him.
- Quiet Sage - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:19 pm:
Brady governor=Madigan all-powerful
- John Bambenek - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:21 pm:
Because Madigan was a hapless lap dog before?
- Quiet Sage - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:30 pm:
ALL-powerful
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:31 pm:
Hynes took a lot of the democratic base from quinn. Hynes got moderate dems and would have done well with moderate republicans, as well as independents.
Rasmussen predicted last year that if Quinn were the dem nominee, he would lose.
- WizzardOfOzzie - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:41 pm:
This is surprising. 15 pts? 5-7 can be dealt with. Also, Brady is getting uncomfortably close to that magical 50% mark.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:46 pm:
===that magical 50% mark. ===
In a multi-candidate race, that mark has no magic at all, especially this year.
- Richard Afflis - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 3:54 pm:
The wild card to look out for between now and November is how badly do the Cook County Democrats want this election. This is a redistricting year coming up and there are other issues that a Democratic Governor would better assist with. The Cook County Democratic party knows how to get out the vote wheb motivated. This race is far from over.
- Ghost - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:00 pm:
== When was the last time you saw an incumbent governor behind by that much in August who then went on to win? ===
grumble
- Anon Again - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:03 pm:
Don’t think it has anything to do with any DGA or anybodies ads Quinn cannot and he has proved it time and time again run the state and he got the only opponent he could beat and he has week after week stuck his foot in his mouth not one lick of common sense
- Old Timer Dem - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:12 pm:
You have a point Rich. I can not ever remember an incumbent governor being this far behind in August polls. If my recollection is correct Gov Dan Walker polled fairly close with Mike Howlett in the Dem primary of 76. Those were also horrible economic times. Run away inflation, 15% mortgage rates. Howlett beat Walker fairly easily (with the help of King Richard I)in the primary and then got clobbered by Thompson in the general election.
- kj - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:24 pm:
So we can take it that, in Hawk’s words, this ball game is OVA?
- fact check, please - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:31 pm:
How far behind was Quinn in January? Was it 15 points? As I recall, he managed to pull that one out. Don’t count him out — he’s a come-from-behind runner.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:40 pm:
===How far behind was Quinn in January? Was it 15 points? ===
LOL. Never. Hynes’ own late January poll showed him trailing Quinn by 7.
Try using the Google before saying stuff like that.
- HolyCatz - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:42 pm:
fact check, please–
Rich beat me to it, but I’ll go ahead and post this.
Late January 2010, the Trib poll had Quinn LEADING Hynes by 4 pts. (44-40) after having held a double digit lead. You have to remember, too, that Hynes had the MGT Push (early release) gift handed to him at the time. This time, Brady has the same gift and hasn’t finished unwrapping it.
And if you look at Quinn’s numbers downstate against Ryan, you’re going to take one huge gulp because he got roasted but good. And if those numbers are even reasonably close in Cook and the ‘burbs, a downstate blowout will make all the difference.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:44 pm:
For those of you harping on the it’s only august meme…
sure, but this isn’t the primary. August 2009-February 2010 was considerable, and what with the holidays, it was an enternity.
this ain’t the primary,though. this is hte general. the window here is two months (at mid-point we can count August as pretty much gone).
are voters still waiting to decide? yes, some are. but, quinn has no good stories to sell them to win the multitudes over. he has nothing to say that can play outside the base. sure, he can try to make brady look bad and go negative in all of sept. and all of oct., but won’t that come off as a little, um, desperate? voters will think quinn is trying to pull a fast one on them and trick them. (and, if I were brady I would tell voters just that)
- Downstater - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:49 pm:
Holy Catz,
I don’t understand your comment about Quinn vs. Ryan, downstate. Which race is that referring to?
As for Downstate turning out for Brady - you can count on it. I have yet to see a Quinn sign in my neck of the woods. And the Brady signs are out in force.
Downstate will be doing their part, but the collar counties are the key.
- This is Fun - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 4:54 pm:
The poll was taken after the big Obama visit. Did that get any media in Chicago? If so, it means that it looks to have had no impact on Quinn’s numbers, meaning the One won’t be able to pull him out…if he even wants to.
- HolyCatz - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 5:02 pm:
Downstater,
I’m in agreement with you. I’m simply saying that against Ryan in the SOS race (61 Ryan 35 Quinn) Quinn didn’t run well downstate and I think downstate will show up big for Brady as well.
- too obvious - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 5:22 pm:
I can only conclude that the 16% who view Brady “very favorably” don’t really know him.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 5:26 pm:
Here’s some good news for Quinn.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 5:47 pm:
Texas IS a business-friendly state, can anyone really blame CAT?
- fact check, please - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 5:55 pm:
I am scarlet. My memory is faulty. But it’s not my heart, it’s my mind…
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 6:01 pm:
===looks to have had no impact on Quinn’s numbers===
Alexi was the focus of that visit. But I see your point.
- illinois democrat - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 6:02 pm:
I don’t think Quinn will catch Brady. Brady will win downstate big..really big. I don’t hear people talking about social issues but I do hear them talking about the great Illinois economy. Quinn had his chance and didn’t impress people and my impression from talking to people in this area (south-central) is that they want to give someone else a chance.
- Another downstater - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 6:34 pm:
Blowout does not describe the utter thumping Quinn is going to take downstate. Nobody out here even cares what Brady thinks or does. He’s not from Chicago, that’s all they need to know.
I predict he’s going to do a Jim Edgar circa 1990 style win - downstate landslide, barely take the collars, lose Cook.
- Louis Howe - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 7:01 pm:
How bad did Quinn run against Ryan downstate. Pat lost Rock Island County, normally a high 50s Democratic County, with 37% of the vote; Peoria County, normally an even split, Quinn rec’d 31%, and Sangamon County, Quinn rec’d 29%. That’s how bad the hill can be for local democrats to climb in a GOP blowout year.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 7:24 pm:
Is Quinn wearing the jacket alone for total Dem control, Blago, bad economy, budget, etc?
You can’t really say current polls show a Dem blowout. I doubt if Lisa or Jesse White are worried. Are any Dem congressional seats in play? Not that I’ve seen.
Heck, Rasmussen has Alexi neck and neck with Kirk. You’d think a millionaire whose bank got taken over by the FDIC then got a tax refund to boot would be a goner in a Dem blowout year, even with Kirk’s misrememberings.
It seems a little mercurial to me still. Two rounds ago, it was a three point spread. But Quinn needs money for TV and in a hurry.