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Silver gives Brady 86.7 percent chance of winning
Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Nate Silver of the legendary 538 polling/projection blog has moved over to the New York Times. Silver’s prediction for the Illinois governor’s race is gonna give lots of Democrats a bad case of heartburn…   I think the final margin may be pretty close to Silver’s projection. And the 86.7 percent chance Brady wins makes sense at the moment. We’ll see.   Unless Quinn can get his act together soon, he will definitely hamper Giannoulias, no matter what Alexi is telling the media. I find myself agreeing with Silver here. * Nate apparently hasn’t gotten around to handicapping our congressional races yet, but here’s a link for future reference. * Campaign 2010 roundup…
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- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 10:54 am:
Quinn’s needed a game-changer gaffe from Brady for some time. So far, Brady’s played it smart and stayed on the milk carton.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 10:56 am:
No way Brady gets over 50%. He very well may win the race, but 50+% is not likely. Did Silver factor in the other candidates in his analysis?
- Ahoy - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 10:57 am:
I tend to agree with this overall picture as well except I don’t think he’s giving Whitney enough credit on the final vote count. I don’t think the winner gets over 50% and I doubt Whitney will get less than 5% of the vote.
This still isn’t over, there is plenty of time, if only because of the major flaws of the Republican’s.
- shore - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:00 am:
Jason Plummer if as lt.gov if brady wins. God help us if something happens to the big man.
- Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:01 am:
Scary, but its not over yet. Has Brady or Plummer agreed to any debates yet?
- N'ville - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:06 am:
Small Town Liberal…Scary? I find it encouraging. And as to debates, I’m guessing that it’s Quinn that will want to limit them. He doesn’t seem to be able to concentrate or stay on point when asked a question. Rambling doesn’t encourage confidence.
- John Bambenek - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:07 am:
I can’t see a meager 3.1% go to all third-party candidates in the US Senate race considering both candidates are not particularly strong, Dabno is the only pro-life candidate in the race (who’s reached out to that community), et al.
I could see a small number of third-party / indy votes in the Governor’s race but not the Senate race…
- Linus - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:08 am:
Rich: I think Ahoy’s got a good point. I know 538/Silver is absolutely stellar at this work, and I don’t disagree with what he’s generally forecasting. But I glanced-over his IL page and still am wondering how much he might have factored the 3rd-party candidacies into his calculations. Is it based on whether the individual polls included Whitney et al in their work?
- Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:08 am:
Agree with general trend and that Nate’s shortchanging SLC and other candidates. Pat has been in trouble for some time. That said, nobody knows too much about Brady yet, so there is still a reasonably decent chance for a comeback.
- Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:10 am:
“Dabno is the only pro-life candidate in the race”
Who???
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:11 am:
CC, Dabno is the Libertarian candidate.
- Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:13 am:
- He doesn’t seem to be able to concentrate or stay on point when asked a question. -
Its going to be tough for Brady to debate the budget when he doesn’t even have a point to stay on.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:14 am:
I dont disagree… but is there really a conceptual difference at this point between 86% and 95% why not just say at this point its a Brady lock unless quinn introduces a game changer, these finite percentages to me are a bit odd…. oh well its 86%, he just hasnt made it to 88% yet….
- soccermom - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:16 am:
No way the point spread is that big on election day, and it’s highly unlikely that either candidate will break 50 percent.
- Aldyth - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:22 am:
When all this started, I didn’t think that Brady would have a chance because of his extreme views. The only thing consistent about Quinn has been his incompetence. Unless something changes, Quinn might as well hand over the keys to the governor’s mansion.
- Sue - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:23 am:
Every time Giannoulias plays his new Obama add- he will lose another ten thousand votes south of I -80
- Ghost - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:25 am:
I agree the spread is a little of, an Brady probably does not break 50% with the other small canidates nipping at some votes… but the ultimate predicition is a solid brady victory, and right now that seems pretty dead on.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:30 am:
even with this prediction, Brady and his camp need to run as if they are losing, leaving nothing to chance. predictions are nice and all, but it ain’t over ’til it’s over.
- just sayin' - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:31 am:
What is Quinn doing? Amazing he’s losing to a guy like Brady.
And why isn’t Quinn making more hay out of things like Brady’s votes for his own real estate development project? Turn the guy into Blago. Yeah, it takes a lot of nerve, but it could be done. And best of all it’s true. Brady reminds me a LOT of Blago, same kind of show horse, unserious, lightweight empty suit who is only concerned with self.
- fedup dem - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:32 am:
I agree that these figures do not accurately reflect the likelihood of voters opting for third party candidates. That said, Quinn is toast unless he and the Democrats GO NEGATIVE on Brady in a huge way. Voters should be unable to watch more than 10 minutes of their favorite shows in October without being reminded that Brady supported legislation to make it easier to kill off puppies and kittens. If voters think the Brady is the revamped version of Jim Edgar, it’s all over. But if they start thinking of him as another Jim Oberweis, then Quinn still has a chance.
- bored now - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:40 am:
sue: i’m very interested in hearing about those anti-obama voters who were going to vote for alexi but won’t now because the president is on television endorsing him. feel free to elaborate!
- SeeClearly - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:43 am:
***I didn’t think that Brady would have a chance because of his extreme views.***
I guess most voters don’t see Brady’s views as extreme and/or those that see some of his views as extreme under stand that there will still be at least be a Dem. General Assembly to moderate Brady’s views.
- SI Dem - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:44 am:
PQ can only blame himself. He should have clean the blagoof house on his first day in office. I can’ tell much difference between the two administrations.
- cassandra - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:48 am:
A lot of people were sure Hynes would beat Quinn in the primary, too. I was one of them. I thought, and still think, Hynes was the far superior candidate in terms of preparation and ability. But in the end, Quinn pulled it out.
If the President and even the First Lady come out a couple of times, if there is a debate and he trounces Brady, if Democrats are galvanized by
the upcoming Chicgo mayoral races, in addition to fears of losing momentum at the national level, I still think it’s Quinn’s to lose. Sigh.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:50 am:
What happened in March to cause the massive reversal in the Quinn/Brady projections? The bad and forth swings in the Senate campaign matches the reality of that race, but I do not recall a dramatic event affecting the Governor race around February/March?
- Moving to Oklahoma - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 11:59 am:
Just a correction on the libertarian candidates name. It isn’t Dabno, its Mike Labno.
- N'ville - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:00 pm:
Anonymous…Brady won the primary…
- Vole - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:00 pm:
Counting the voters who will blindly go with the “winner”, Brady has this in the ‘pollsters-push- victory’ bag. This is just one big Brady for Governor campaign sign that counts much more than all the signs he has along the hard roads of Illinois.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:02 pm:
===I do not recall a dramatic event affecting the Governor race around February/March===
The primary ended.
- lakeview - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:03 pm:
I think that the third parties will play a big role here. Pollsters are just starting to ask about them, and if Whitney or Green starts to show even a little traction, then the whole race becomes a tossup.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:03 pm:
====A lot of people were sure Hynes would beat Quinn in the primary, too===
True, except he trailed in every poll, including his own.
- Moving to Oklahoma - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:06 pm:
Bored Now. I think there will be a certain number of Southern Illinois voters, republicans, who would vote for Alexi because of the fact that Mark Kirk is not a conservative candidate. The case can be made that Alexi is more conservative on Abortion and guns than Kirk is. Ask yourself this question, should a democrat vote for Ron Paul, or a Bill Brady if they switched parties but changed none of their stances on the issues? Republicans have the same quandary when voting for Kirk.
- dave - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:08 pm:
I guess most voters don’t see Brady’s views as extreme
Or they just don’t know his views.
- Honest Abe - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:23 pm:
If the nominees were Hynes and Dillard, this would be an exciting gubernatorial election. Thus far, Brady is playing it safe, which is probably not a bad strategy, while Quinn keeps tripping over his own two feet. I do not dislike Quinn, but I have not been a huge fan of his career either. He reminds of Gerald Ford.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:32 pm:
“The case can be made that Alexi is more conservative on Abortion and guns than Kirk is.”
That’s not what my conservative Republican and Libertarian political friends tell me. They tell me they do not like Kirk but hate Alexi even worse and that Kirk is the lesser of two evils in their eyes. Not one of them will claim that Alexi is more conservative than Kirk on their hot button issues.
Wait until those new property tax bills are mailed out to Chicago and Cook County residents. Silver will look like a genius.
- RMW Stanford - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:46 pm:
I can see Brady winning around 50-51%, I suspect that if third parties play a larger role than what this model shows it will be a by reducing Quinn’s numbers. That being said my own feeling is that thirds party candidates as whole will do as well in the Governors race this year as they did in 2006. That the Whitney will finish substainaly back of where he did 4 years. My feeling right now is that the Green party will probably lose their status as a major party in Illinois.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
Couple of conservative thrid party canidates which will draw Brady down as well
- the dark horse - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:01 pm:
Kudos to Brady. By concealing his economic plans (assuming he has any) he has fooled everyone into thinking that he can pass a balanced budget with ne new taxes and without devastating cuts. We are going to be in for a rude awakening in 2011.
- RMW Stanford - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:03 pm:
I would tend to think that conservative third party candidates on the ballot will have relatively of less of an effect on Brady than SLC or the Greens on Quinn. Some on can correct me if I am wrong, but the only remaining third party “conservative” candidate on the ballot is libertarian candidate, Lex Green correct?
- Cubs2010 - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:18 pm:
Nate Silver predicted the cubs would win the world series in 2004, with the same type of research methods. Statistics are like bikinis they show a lot, but never everything.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:22 pm:
===with the same type of research methods===
Not.
- downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:48 pm:
Brady should win. As discussed in another thread Scott Lee Cohen is claiming he will spend $3,000,000. If he does and the media does not refute him, he is capable of 5% of the Vote (his message is jobs , jobs ,Jobs, and he did it very well in the primary). This will hurt Quinn chances even more.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:55 pm:
People who think that PQ can somehow pull this out if he can just get folk to focus on Brady and his “extremist” views are ignoring reality. People are going to vote for Brady not because he describes his economic plan in detail, not because he promises not to gas any puppies, not because he becomes pro-abortion. People will be voting for Brady because HE IS NOT QUINN. There is NO WAY Quinn can become NOTQUINN.
As an aside, I can’t see PQ being effective in any debate if we are to use his rambling press conferences as any comparison. He would be better off doing as few debates as possible - just don’t try telling him that. Brady does not have to detail his economic plan in a debate to win the day/election. All he has to do is ask folk if they are better off now then they were when PQ was elevated. All Brady has to do is remind folk of PQ’s stumbling act. All Brady has to do is remind folk that he, Brady, is not PQ.
This is not a good time to be an incumbent.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:57 pm:
Could somebody please name the conservative 3rd party candidates who will be on the ballot come November?
If there are any, what are their polling numbers?
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 1:58 pm:
To clarify - could somebody please name conservative 3rd party candidates FOR GOVERNOR who will be on the ballot come November?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 2:02 pm:
DD, could you possibly just use the handy links in the center column and do 30 seconds of research yourself?
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 2:31 pm:
Rich,
Sorry - I should have been more specific.
I should have asked Ghost what conservative 3rd party candidates HE was referring to in his missive @12:50 PM. Other than the libertarian candidate (who could be called conservative, I suppose) who else is there? No one that I could see. And since the libertarian party has never polled above about 1% how can that “draw down” Brady in any meaningful way?
That’s what I should have said.
- thom - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 3:20 pm:
Now that we will not have an incumbent and engaged Mayor of Chicago running for re-election, and a new Mayor not seated until May 16, of 2011, it looks like for the first time in more than four decades, that the Governor elected on Nov. 2, 2010 will become the most -intriguingly- important political power player/leader in Illinois.
- Capitol View - Wednesday, Sep 8, 10 @ 3:33 pm:
hom - ever hear of State Dem Chairman and House Speaker Mike Madigan?
Also, it isn’t “going negative” on Brady to disclose his voting record as a long term very conservative state senator. It is stating the record, most of which should scare the wits out of the independents and soccer moms.