Poll: Emanuel leads the pack
Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We Ask America polled Chicago last night and found Rahm Emanuel leading the pack, with Sheriff Tom Dart and Congressmen Jesse Jackson, Jr. and Luis Guitierrez bunched up in the race for second place. Click the pic for a larger image…
Now for the caveats. I used this robo-poll firm a couple of years ago and had some concerns about response rates among African-Americans and Latinos. They have been trying harder since then, but Latinos are underrepresented in this poll by more than half.
Some names are obviously missing, but this is still an interesting mix. We’re looking at name recognition here. That will change if other lesser known candidates can raise the bucks.
Also, if you want to see how poorly the Daley name is faring these days, just look at Bill Daley’s numbers. Not great.
Methodology…
2,365 participants
Ethnic breakdown:
African American: 37.69%
Asian: 4.95%
Hispanic: 11.86%
White: 35.49%
Other/Refused: 10.01%
How the names were chosen…
As we pull the trigger on this poll, we’ve found 40+ possible candidates mentioned in published reports, with more queuing up for consideration. We wanted to narrow it down to ten (because there’s only ten digits on a phone for an automated poll), so we added up the articles and chose the ten who were mentioned in the most clippings–not exactly as precise our usual polls…but what the heck. This is for fun.
* Daley roundup…
* With Daley’s news, eyes also on city’s police chief
* Weis knows his days as superintendent numbered
* Roeder: Daley exit tough for biz: Unable to write checks toward another Daley victory, business executives will take their time and survey the field. Many will sit out a probably contentious election, or get involved only if the field is narrowed to two for an April runoff. “There is no up side to jumping in this early,” said Guy Chipparoni, president of the public relations firm Res Publica Group, which counsels clients on business and public policy.
* McQueary: Daley’s farewell: A rebirth for the third airport?
* Daley era ends: What is the fate of future Wal-Marts?
* Daley era ends: How will plans for O’Hare, Midway define his legacy?
* Daley Business-Like at City Council Meeting; Aldermen Honor Mayor
* Possible Windfall for Daley After Surprising Announcement
* Reardon: Mayor’s leaving us high and dry: I’m sorry, Mayor Richard Daley. You may be tired. You may want to spend more time with your wife. I’m sure you know a lot more than I do about how bruising a re-election race could be next year and about what federal investigators may have found in their prying into your City Hall. But walking away from your fifth floor office right now, saying, “It’s time,” is just wrong. You’re abandoning the people of Chicago to the reality of democracy — but without the skills of democracy.
* Sun-Times: Aldermen must get to work, cut spending
* City Council Budget Hearing Could be More Hectic this Year
* Did Daley’s hits outweigh his misses?
* City Council approves $1B bonds for O’Hare
* City OKs $1 billion for O’Hare mega-project
* City Council Approves O’Hare Bond
* Kadner: This 2-hour election a bunch of CUDD
* Suburbs also will feel Daley’s absence
* Daily Herald: Daley’s successor and the suburbs
- just sayin' - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:26 am:
Da Mayor will definitely get behind someone, and Emanuel would be my guess. Daley’s got to get his own successor as that will negate the need for a shredder party before the handover. He also obviously doesn’t want anyone in there who is going to use the prior administration as a scapegoat any time a problem comes up.
- CircularFiringSquad - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:26 am:
Is Capt Fax pulling our leg or just too much silly sauce — again?
No women? No Sandi Jackson, Lisa Madigan or
Cindi Canary?
Looks like name recog derby….better try again Capt.
- CookDem - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:40 am:
This poll is ridiculous. Does anyone think Rahm has any chance to get 35% of the Black vote? Really? Ana what is the point of putting in a bunch of names that arent ever running like Bill Daley,Ed Burke and Houlihan? Looks like a poll commisioned by Rahm to show Dart is weak. Put in a bunch of white guys to siphon off vote from Dart. Here is what should be tested:
Rahm
Dart
Gutierrez
Del Valle
Meeks
Peterson
Lisa Madigan
These folks are much more likely to be candidates, except for Lisa. The reason you test Lisa is to see how a popular female electedofficial would do against all the boys. This would give you a much truer read of the race dynamics.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:40 am:
Can a candidate run for alderman and mayor simultaneously? or is it one or the other?
- Jim - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:49 am:
The victory tour is sickening, he is walking away from a $650M hole that will be $800M next year because he will not cut services, cut jobs or raise taxes so he can preserve his legacy. And the “new, improved” city council just signed off on $1B more in bonds for O’Hare, with no questions about how the bonds will be paid, and $100M in TIF dollars for South Works. If a developer wants to build it, fine, if not, we’re broke, the bank is closed. THat’s backbone for you.
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:49 am:
Too bad they left out del Valle, the only announced major candidate so far. And what about Waguespack? He’s been mentioned in every article I’ve read.
- dave - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:51 am:
Does anyone think Rahm has any chance to get 35% of the Black vote? Really?
With an Obama endorsement, 35% of the Black vote is definitely within reach.
- The Captain - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:14 am:
I find it hard to believe that Rahm gets more of the AA vote that JJJ and Meeks combined.
- shore - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:14 am:
from the perspective of a suburban republican there seems to be an “anyone but rahm coalition” developing. It will be interesting to see if that materializes.
- Knome Sane - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:18 am:
=And what about Waguespack?=
Snowball, meet Hell.
- Wumpus - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:24 am:
I am surprised that Rahm is polling so well in the AA community. I know he was in the Clinton and Obama inner circles, but that number is still high imo. Especially given the fact that JJJ and Rev Meeks are both in the polling. Perhaps Wumpus should join the race.
- fed up - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:25 am:
The city Council black caucus met on wed to discuss the Mayoral opening. It will be interesting to see who they get behind. Name recognition for AA alderman isn’t that high except for maybe Sandi Jackson. I don’t think any of the good government types will back a Jackson run. Would love to see a self financed businessman jump in this race to ensure Chicago’s future as a functioning city
- Jim - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:26 am:
Obama was just quoted in the Tribune saying that Rahm would make an “excellent” mayor, there’s your 35%.
- CookDem - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:27 am:
Rahm isn’t polling that well in the AA community. It is all name recognition. Asignificant AA candidate that is JJJ will take all that AA vote away from Rahmbo.
- CookDem - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:28 am:
that is not JJJ I mean. Typos can be killers.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:28 am:
–Walking away from your job at this moment is leaving us high and dry. This is a city that doesn’t know how to operate in a democracy.–
The hand-wringing by some commentators over the loss of Daddy Daley, as exemplified by Reardon’s column, is just sad.
Maybe that’s the view from the Ivory Tower, but I’m guessing the 3 million or so souls in Chicago who face life’s challenges daily, will somehow get out of bed in the morning even without Daley.
- Logical Thinker - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:33 am:
Rahm can poll well all he wants. It won’t make a difference until someone actually goes and starts knocking on doors for him.
Emanuel has NO ground game whatsoever. I find it hard to imagine that someone who has spent the majority of his time in DC is going to get a lot of support from the democratic operations in the city.
I agree with Shore. The “anyone but Rahm” movement is starting to build steam.
- Cheryl44 - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:33 am:
Tom Tunney is doing well in the completely unscientific straw poll the Sun-Times is running.
- Tom B. - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:46 am:
Rich, even you can’t resist the crack cocaine of a ridiculous robo poll.
A one-night sample, order of vote preference done ALPHABETICALLY FOR CRYING OUT LOUD, no other relevant data to measure the validity of the sample (Obama approval, quinn approval, Daley approval), and the only data released demonstrated that they have their demographics screwed up.
I could have called 100 random people out of my voter file and gotten a better poll.
- someone else - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 12:00 pm:
(- Jim - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:49 am): “…walking from $650M hole that will be $800M…he will not cut services, cut jobs or raise taxes…the city council signed off on $1B bonds for O’Hare, no questions about how the bonds will be paid…”
Jim, clearly you don’t live in Chicago, or if you do, you are not paying attention. City services have been drastically cut. Practically all city employees are taking furlough days. Management is required to take 24 furlough days. Jobs have been cut the past two years and more layoffs are planned. Finally, every newspaper this morning explains clearly that the Airport Bonds will be paid for by passenger fees. No risk to Chicago homeowners of having to pay in case the expansion is a dud and the bonds cannot be paid.
- MOON - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 1:54 pm:
I have no idea who would win the election for Mayor. Based upon this poll it does not look like Houlihan is very popular. If Bill Daley was serious about running you have to assume the current mayor would not have announced his retirement without ochestrating a push for Bill.
I understand why Luis would poll so well given the fact he is the only Hispanic represented in this poll.
The big surprise for me is Dart. This is a guy who sought state wide office and lost. He sought an appointment as Fed. Prosecutor. He is extremely ambitious and has burned a lot of bridges along the way. Sure, he holds the Sheriff Office, but that is nowhere near the level of Mayor. The more the public learns about him, the less likely they will hold him in such high regard.
- Who cares - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 2:25 pm:
=The big surprise for me is Dart. This is a guy who sought state wide office and lost. He sought an appointment as Fed. Prosecutor. He is extremely ambitious and has burned a lot of bridges along the way. Sure, he holds the Sheriff Office, but that is nowhere near the level of Mayor. The more the public learns about him, the less likely they will hold him in such high regard.=
What bridges has Dart burned and what is there to learn about him that will make the public hold him in less regard???
- MOON - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 2:47 pm:
His ambitions far exceed his abilities!
Do a little research and you will find he has made a lot of enimies. I do not think it is my place to list these people. A little investigation on your part will prove me correct.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 2:50 pm:
===you will find he has made a lot of enimies===
Yeah. And that name starts with MJM. lol
- MOON - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 3:54 pm:
RICH
I was unaware of MJM. My list does not include him, but contains others.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 4:25 pm:
Why don’t people think Rahm will have a ground game? I just don’t get it. He will bring the power of the President into a local race. He will get several ward orgs to help. Probably the Mayor’s office. Have the most money.
I really don’t think he has much competition.
- Objective Dem - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 8:09 pm:
I agree with Mr. Whoopees comments. Rahm had a good enough ground game to win his congressional seat. Plus a big part of the game is putting together a coalition of ward organizations and utilizing them for your ground game. No one can ever do it with just their own organization. Despite what people think, Rahm is good at making deals and will likely be able to build the coalition.
Plus the game has shifted with a lot more emphasis on getting enough money to do radio and tv. And Rahm can raise the money.
I think a lot of people have villianize Rahm for a number of reasons. Base on accounts you hear, you would think he was a complete jerk who shouts profanities like he has tourettes. The reality is he is a driven person who is very pragmatic. That is the type person Chicagoans like. Oddly enough his biggest negative is being close to Daley. People are ready for a change.
I haven’t heard of any bridges that Dart has burned. He seems very likeable and has real potential.
I keep on thinking about De Valle. He has the potential to rebuild the Washington Coalition. If he can get the African Americans behind him quickly enough, a big chuck of the lakefront liberals will break from Rahm towards him. But without the AA backing, he won’t have a chance.
- PatriotUSA - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 8:48 pm:
Get petition started immediately: Roe Conn for Mayor! Carnable Wagon at 5pm every day! Rebuild Meigs Field airport! Bring back “Chicago Dog” street vendors!! Good times for all!
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 9:53 pm:
I dn’t buy these poll results one bit. Rahm put this so-called organization up to this. It is not even remotely plausible that Chicagoans have been clamoring for him to be mayor all this time, or within the past several months of him saying he wanted the job.