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New Poll: Quinn up by six?
Monday, Oct 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * A new Suffolk University poll has Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bill Brady 43-37. The toplines are here. From the pollster…
I called the pollster because I noticed an error in the toplines. They show “Chicago” as being 38 percent of their universe. The pollster said this was a typo and it should read “Chicago and suburban Cook County.” If you look at the extensive crosstabs, you’ll see Quinn is leading Brady Still, the poll had Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias by a point, 42-41, which is in line with most other recent polls. And they had the generic congressional ballot essentially tied at 42 Democratic and 41 Republican. That is essentially the same result that Public Policy Polling got. So, it’s odd, man. Odd. According to the pollster, Scott Lee Cohen is at 7 percent, Rich Whitney is at 3 percent and Lex Green is at 1 percent. I can buy those, too. * The pollster was the first to survey the constitutional ballot question this year providing for gubernatorial recall. Just 48 percent were in favor and 44 percent were opposed. * Other races…
* They also asked some policy questions. 18 percent said an ounce or less of marijuana should be legal, 19 percent said the amount should be decriminalized, and 33 percent said it should be legal only with a prescription. Total that up and you get 70 percent in favor of changing the state’s stupid laws. Just 21 percent said an ounce or less should be illegal under any circumstances. Another 10 percent was undecided. * 37 percent of voters came out “absolutely against” any legally recognized unions for same sex couples, while 24 percent supported civil unions and 30 percent backed legal marriage. * And 69 percent backed term limits for Congress of six, two-year terms. 25 percent opposed it and 5 percent were undecided.
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- ok - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:44 pm:
This is what had the kirk people scrambling. When they saw the Quinn turnaround in the trib poll, they saw it as a fluke dem-heavy poll.
What nobody considered was that Quinn is somehow, voodoo-like, bringing it home.
- Another Anonymous - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:46 pm:
Aren’t the downballot surveys also similar to other poll results?
Wouldn’t that suggest that the Gov poll is also accurate?
- Moving to Oklahoma - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:47 pm:
weird man. weird.
- Realist - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:52 pm:
impossible poll
- John Bambenek - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:55 pm:
I’m somewhat surprised by the amendment poll… I figured I’d have a harder time selling a no vote…
- Hamburgler - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:56 pm:
People all over Illinois are learning about Bill Brady’s reckless, indiscriminate plan to slash even the most worthy state expenses. They have started to realize that electing a Governor who has spent two decades in Springfield with nothing to show for it would be a mistake.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:58 pm:
No way Lisa Madigan is at 63%. 61 tops. Man these polls are infuriating.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:59 pm:
Honest question … IS/DID Brady peak too soon? Is complacency sitting in, and are they not doing the groundwork needed to bring it home?
I had heard out here in Kendall - “Brady is running out of NOTHING to say” … when I heard that, didnt’ think much of it, but that might be what Jerry and Co. are facing (?)
I do not believe Quinn is up, regardless of the crosstabs being in lock step with every other poll, but I will say that Brady’s crew seems to be struggling, while Quinn has no where to go but up …
- IrishPirate - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
Well it seems the unelectable governor may beat his unelectable opponent. In the end SOMEONE has to win.
Nationally, and I know Rich hates “nationally”, the Dems seems to be perking up a bit.
It’s been said you can’t beat somebody with nobody and in a State like Illinois Brady is damn close to being a nobody. The GOP screwed up by nominating someone that far(………….)this far to the right on social issues.
My prediction is Quinn wins by four and the media forgets to cover his victory. Rahm Emmanuel will be kayaking down the Chicago River in search of Wrigley Field for a photo op in front of the sign at Devon and Indiana Avenue and I expect busloads of media to be in tow.
Perhaps the entire contingent will get lost and end up at the Mars Cheese Castle.
- Windy City Mama - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
Do they also take into account the Republicans are more motivated to actually come out and vote ?
- Cheryl44 - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:05 pm:
I love the “Republicans are more motivated’ meme. Not that’s it’s true, but that’s what will scare the Dems into actually showing up at the poll. So keep it up, please.
It hadn’t occurred to me anyone was running against Lisa Madigan or Jesse White.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:12 pm:
This is really just typical Illinois Republican campaigning. Ignoring huge voting blocks and telling anyone who will listen what should really matter to them. This is followed closely by waking up Wednesday mornings and wondering what truck ran them over.
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:20 pm:
“My prediction is Quinn wins by four and the media forgets to cover his victory. Rahm Emmanuel will be kayaking down the Chicago River in search of Wrigley Field for a photo op in front of the sign at Devon and Indiana Avenue and I expect busloads of media to be in tow.”
LOL. This is why I love this blog.
- Wizard of Ozzie - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:20 pm:
“Do they also take into account the Republicans are more motivated to actually come out and vote ? ”
That’s what screening for likely voters does. Subscribe and read the Fax today for a good explanation (you’re welcome Rich).
- Segatari - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:20 pm:
So what are we supposed to believe here? That Quinn with his sorry performance as governor is good enough for election to a full term? Is the pain level of what the Quinn administration is not torturous enough to make you go with someone else? Maybe the labor union deal is what has turned this, though it really should had been a negative because it once again is another kick of the can down the road and doing nothing to deal with budget deficit problems.
- "Old Timer Dem" - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:22 pm:
About 4 weeks (Rasmussen polls) ago Rich was calling Quinn a goner and was sarcastic in his remarks towards anyone who thought otherwise.
- NoWay - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:23 pm:
Quinn is still only pulling 67% of his own party so who has come home?
That Quinn is beating Brady by 6 points down state.
Look at the weird way they break down the zones; Northeast, Northwest, Northcentral and then south what does this mean. Not Cook, Chicago, Collars, downstate
After months of Brady pulling 93% of the GOP he’s down to 82% hasn’t happened.
These polls are out in hopes of stopping the Dem. Bleeding.
Still in any race you never know, the GOP better get their butts in gear or they could lose this race.
- Rod - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:29 pm:
Well I doubt this polling data is on the money. But Senator Brady had made a major mistake and that is going on TV and actually attempting to answer some questions. He would have been wiser to lay low, well below I-70.
His answers on cutting education funding while truthful are not what the people really want to hear. They want no education cuts and yet they also want the state to get out of debt.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:41 pm:
Interesting numbers. 100% claimed to be registered voters. 84% of them claimed they were highly likely to vote. 32% of them were union members. 65% felt the state was still heading in the wrong direction. Only 36% felt Quinn deserved to be reelected.
- Matt - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:49 pm:
I might be misunderstanding the insides of this poll since I don’t know what exactly “northeast” means…But if it means collar counties, I find it strange that Brady is cleaning Quinns clock by nearly 25 points while Quinn is beating Brady in Central Illinois
- steve schnorf - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:52 pm:
Louis, do you read that to mean that in that snapshot pollsters then assumed an 84% turnout?
- Fred - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:53 pm:
This is a state that elected Blago twice so who knows what will happen. The Repubs I see are VERY energized.
If Quinn should win this race after a completely abysmal performance, then watch this state sink lower than low.
- Niles Township - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
This is classic Quinn. Screw up a campaign so bad nobody thinks that you can win, and then at the last minute win by the narrowest of margins. I actually buy a slight Quinn surge as I have heard more mumblings about Brady’s views from the man on the street interactions. What I am hearing is neither are good choices, but Quinn is the lesser of the evils. And, hey in four years we will have a governor who won’t be Quinn or Brady.
- Fred - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:04 pm:
Brady needs to pound away that Democratic rule for the past 8 years have ruined this state and pound away on Quinn for that early release misstep.
- Excessively Rabid - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:05 pm:
In the dictionary under “snakebit,” it says to see Illinois Republican. They have nominated someone who can make himself look less appealing than a proven incompetent. I’m still not buying a win for Quinn, but the fact that there’s any question is dismaying.
- Segatari - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:07 pm:
>And, hey in four years we will have a governor who won’t be Quinn or Brady.
Quinn could run for another full term in 2014. He would not be term limited out since he took office with less than two years left of Blago’s term.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
===not be term limited out since===
There are no term limits in Illinois.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:14 pm:
Steve, it’s hard to tell without finding out how many were interviewed and winnowed off the list before arriving at that 84% figure. That’s what made the number a little interesting for me. It just kind of sits out there without much of a reference point.
Since everyone is talking about voter turnout, assuming higher GOP turnout, lower Chicago turnout due to the mayoral fixation, and other theories on the subject, etc. etc. etc. I would have thought the poll would have given us a better idea of what voter turnout would be like, either statewide or regionally. Instead we get a number of 84% which has me curious.
If there was an 84% voter turn out, all the county clerks would be swamped and we would be national news!
- David Paleologos - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
Hi, thanks for the shout out about our poll Rich. I appreciate your giving me a call. I thought I’d post our press release here for you in just in case anyone wanted to skip digging through the tables - http://www.suffolk.edu/43985.html - though your summary is excellent.
I’m the director of the SUPRC and if you have any questions I’m available for questions via twitter (@davidpaleologos) or my blog.
Best,
David
- MrJM - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
So should I be drinking out of joy or despair?
– MrJM
- Deep South - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:18 pm:
=== Rahm Emmanuel will be kayaking down the Chicago River in search of Wrigley Field for a photo op in front of the sign at Devon and Indiana Avenue and I expect busloads of media to be in tow.”====
May be the funniest thing I’ve ever read on this blog.
- Deep South - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:22 pm:
BTW, what’s the difference between an energized GOP voter and a Dem who comes to the polling place half-asleep? Nothing. A vote is a vote…I don’t care if you’re energized or not. The whole “Republicans are energized” thing is quite a cannard.
- Niles Township - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:24 pm:
Segatari - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:07 pm:
>And, hey in four years we will have a governor who won’t be Quinn or Brady.
Quinn could run for another full term in 2014. He would not be term limited out since he took office with less than two years left of Blago’s term.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
===not be term limited out since===
There are no term limits in Illinois
————-
Exactly…I’m not talking term limits, I’m talking voter imposed limits. No matter if Quinn or Brady is the next governor, neither will be in 2014.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:28 pm:
71% percent of the voters turned out in 2008 with Obama on the ticket. Any poll that suggests that the percent of likely voters higher than that is suspect on its face. Off year elections normally have a much lower percentage of voters than generals. In 1994, only 53% of the eligible voters turned out in the Republican wave election. I think it is safe to assume that the percentage of voters this year will be between those two numbers, and probably more close to the latter than the former.
Here’s a great link for the geeks among you:
http://www.elections.il.gov/downloads/electioninformation/pdf/reg-prct.pdf
- FillB - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:43 pm:
“These polls are out in hopes of stopping the Dem. Bleeding.”
That’s an insipid comment.
“So should I be drinking out of joy or despair?”
Yes.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:48 pm:
===Look at the weird way they break down the zones; Northeast, Northwest, Northcentral and then south what does this mean. Not Cook, Chicago, Collars, downstate===
Those are downstate zones. I’ve seen other pollsters do it. Many of the campaigns do it as well.
And they look about right. Maybe a bit too leaning towards Quinn, but about in line.
- bored now - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:54 pm:
Cincinnatus: thanks for the link. i pull these down as a spreadsheet, but this is more recent.
Rich: i couldn’t get to the crosstabs via your link. i assume they’ve corrected stuff since you talked to them. here’s the link i found:
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/final.3.edits.STATEWIDE.TABLES.OCT.4.2010.pdf
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:57 pm:
Should mean some late money for Quinn. I bet he’s knocking on Burke’s and Emil Jones’ doors. Maybe some of that Claypool money, too.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:57 pm:
I reposted it. Try again.
- corvax - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:01 pm:
Paleologos doesn’t bring us old news–he should be Neologos! Yiasas, welcome and efharisto!
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:05 pm:
bored now,
You’d think finding that info would be easy on the ISBE website, huh? Rich should devote about 3 columns and 50 blog posts (in addition to the numerous posts he’s already done) to that crappy site. I actually believe the ISBE site is intentionally constructed to make finding information all but impossible. Remember how the state touted the change to it this spring? Ridiculous…
- "Old Timer Dem" - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:07 pm:
No Claypool Money for Quinn. Quinn endorsed Berrios.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:08 pm:
Cincinnatus, those people are hopeless.
- Jim F - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:12 pm:
Can someone explain how Quinn is up 6 when he is leading among women by 8 and men by 7?
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:13 pm:
Old Timer, a smart investor likes a hedge.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:19 pm:
Jim F, thanks. I was looking at the wrong set of data. It’s fixed now. Oops.
- downstate hack - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:20 pm:
71% percent of the voters turned out in 2008 with Obama on the ticket. Any poll that suggests that the percent of likely voters higher than that is suspect on its face. Off year elections normally have a much lower percentage of voters than generals. In 1994, only 53% of the eligible voters turned out in the Republican wave election. I think it is safe to assume that the percentage of voters this year will be between those two numbers, and probably more close to the latter than the former.
I agree completly. I believe even with close Governor and Senate races in Illinois the turnout will be low. Some voters are excited and deeply motivated, but just as many are completely worn out and apathetic. These type of elections are fun for the Cap Fax political junkies like myself, but I think turnout will be below average, judging by talking with many average Joes and Jills.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:22 pm:
JIm F, it’s due to the + or - 3% factor. Quinn is actually up by 9 points
- Wizard of Ozzie - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:24 pm:
Cincinnatus and others-
I appreciate your attempts to discredit this poll as an outlier, just like you did the CNN poll. “No way can this be true… look at the subgroups, their MOE is 8%… there are too many likely voters…” As Rich pointed out, the best measure of accuracy is to put it up against other polls. The results for the other races are remarkably similar to other which suggests there is NO problem with sampling. There is always a margin for error, but there is undeniable trend. Whether it holds up, who knows. But your constant amateur attempts at discrediting every positive Quinn poll are laughable. Stick to your day job.
-Jim F
“Can someone explain how Quinn is up 6 when he is leading among women by 8 and men by 7?”
Because there are 4 people in the race.
- ArchPundit - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:25 pm:
===So should I be drinking out of joy or despair?
I don’t find those to be mutually exclusive. This year.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:40 pm:
Wizard,
The problems we are discussing are that there are months of polling showing Brady comfortably ahead, then 3 polls (one an internal DCCC) showing something different, then a PPP poll showing Brady comfortably ahead.
I am not trying to discredit any one poll, just trying to understand the wide swings in the data we are seeing. Nobody, including and especially you, have tried to add to the understanding of these polls.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:43 pm:
===just trying to understand the wide swings in the data===
That’s explained below. Those big lead polls didn’t include SLC.
Look at the average of these six SLC-inclusive polls and you’ll get a better idea where we are.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:47 pm:
Rich,
The 9/30 PPP poll had everyone:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_930.pdf
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:50 pm:
Yes, I’m well aware of that and it’s in my column as well.
But you look at averages when you have more than one poll, and we do. So look at the average.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:54 pm:
Try this… http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-i-why-you-cant-trust-your-gut/
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:55 pm:
And this… http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-2-what-the-numbers-say/
- Wizard of Ozzie - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:56 pm:
The PPP poll seems to be the outlier. Remember, there were months of polling showing Pat Quinn with a 20 pt lead over Dan Hynes until MGT push aired. That lead disappeared overnight, just as Brady’s has. Actually, in this case, it’s likely that Brady was never “comfortably ahead”.
Also, the DGA poll was internal so there was no reason to attempt to skew the results.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 4:58 pm:
Not sure if it’s an outlier or not, but average it in with the rest.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 5:10 pm:
And when you do, Brady by 2.4%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html
And I’ve been sending those links to you, Rich! Make sure to read Part 3, Nate has decided to make it a five parter instead of three.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 5:13 pm:
===And when you do, Brady by 2.4%.===
I have it a point or so closer than that, but I’m not using polls which kept SLC out of the questions.
- steve schnorf - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 5:31 pm:
In this land of the apathetic voter, any turnout over 50% in a non-Presidential year is pretty good. The 75% who either fail to register or don’t bother to vote always save their voices for after the election, when they are meaningless.
- rich - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 5:55 pm:
i find that hard to believe…i`d say it`s a toss up.
- Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 6:50 pm:
“…the wide swings we are seeing” is attributable to the reality that, indeed, the race is CLOSE, plain and simple/like it or not, coupled with the fact that we’re dealing with some strange combination in this particular election cycle of an edgy, jumpy electorate (e.g. hating the “pride and joy of Illinois” Bears one day, loving ‘em the next, and altogether uncertain the day after that–and in such times, it’s hard to predict if they’ll go with the lesser of two evils (i.e. play it safe n’ hold on to what they’ve got) or “take the plunge” into the new pool thinking maybe the temperatur’ll be just fine after all (i.e. taking the risk was worth it after all)!
- (618) Democrat - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 6:51 pm:
What these recent polls mean is lots of money pouring into the Quinn campaign.
More money equates to Quinn getting the truth out about Brady, the teabagger candidate that is running on the republican ticket.
- Truth - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 7:31 pm:
Of course Quinn will win. He can hand out entitlements for ever and ever and ever the Illinois way.
- DuPage Dave - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 7:52 pm:
Truth? “Hand out entitlements”? Those come from the feds, not the state (Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps). Get realistic, buddy.
- dumb ol' country boy - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:57 pm:
Rich can anyone sponsor legislation for a bill, as in a taxpayer. Or would I have to get support via a rep or senator? Just curious we will never get serious campaign finance reform or term limits with any of thses coward in springfield, everyone is bought and paid for before they arrive. Or would it have to be put on a ballot for the voters to decide? That being the case one would have to obtain signature, enough of the to get something on the ballot? Just trying to some educating, and I didn’t know the answer. Thanks!
- Fred - Tuesday, Oct 5, 10 @ 7:59 am:
People can speculate all they want about what Brady will do or how he will do it. We KNOW what Quinn will do or not do and it is not pretty. We’ve seen 8 years of this Blago/Quinn clown show and we have a disaster on our hands.
It is time for change.
- Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Oct 5, 10 @ 3:28 pm:
Hey, we just heard from Fred–Who is this guy?
- JustThinking - Tuesday, Oct 5, 10 @ 7:27 pm:
http://www.suffolk.edu/38934.html
“10/26/2009 - Though most polls are showing the New Jersey governor’s race to be dead even between incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine and former U.S. Attorney and Republican challenger Chris Christie, a new poll by Suffolk University signals that Corzine (42 percent) leads comfortably over Christie (33 percent), with independent Chris Daggett trailing with 7 percent. Three percent of voters selected among the other nine independent candidates listed on the ballot, and 14 percent were undecided.”
After $100 million investment in the race by Corzine, on November 4: “With 99% of precincts reporting, Christie had 49%, compared with 45% for Corzine. Independent candidate Chris Daggett had just 6%.”
Word to wise Republicans. Don’t panic, that’s what they want.