Polling, schmolling
Monday, Oct 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Two things to keep in mind about the Tribune’s new US Senate poll. From the article…
The poll of 700 registered voters, conducted last Monday through Friday…
I’m going on the hope that they asked those registered voters if they were likely to vote. If not, this is worthless. Also, a five-day window? Some of these numbers are now a week old. That’s ancient in campaign terms.
But at least the Tribune put all the Senate candidates into its poll, unlike the Mason-Dixon poll.
Man, the polling this year is really messed up.
* From the Tribune poll…
Kirk’s support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias’ backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. During that time period, the number of undecided independent voters dropped from 22 percent to 8 percent — with Kirk picking up virtually all of those deciding on a candidate. […]
The poll showed potential avenues where Giannoulias can grow support — if he can get Democrats motivated. Concerns of a post-2008 letdown have prompted Obama to make two visits back home to Chicago to help Giannoulias and other Democrats, with a third trip planned for Saturday.
Only two-thirds of voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago back Giannoulias’ candidacy, a gain of less than 5 percentage points from late September, while 15 percent of city voters said they were undecided. At the same time, in increasingly Democratic suburban Cook County, Giannoulias carries a slim 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Kirk.
Kirk holds a strong 15 percentage-point advantage among men, and Giannoulias has an 8 percentage-point edge among women across the state. But the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.
Geo tabs…
* Meanwhile, the DSCC just leaked its latest topline…
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote — Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, Mark Kirk, a Republican, Michael Labno, a Libertarian, or LeAlan Jones, of the Green Party?
Total Giannoulias 38%
Total Kirk 36%
Total Labno 4%
Total Jones 7%
Undecided 16%
Another five-day polling window, but at least it’s more recent (Wednesday through yesterday). 600 likely voters. MoE +/-4.0 percent.
* Related…
* Charlie Cook: Dems’ House Losses Likely Enormous, but Senate Hard to Read
* Illinois Moves to the Right
* Revenge Of The Right
* Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51
* Gay voters angry at Democrats could sway election
* Feds OK Illinois extension on overseas ballots
* Poll shows tight races for governor, U.S. Senate
* Poll: Kirk has slim lead in Senate race (VIDEO)
* Illinois Senate race listed as one of 7 toss-ups
* Forget ads: Senate candidates Kirk, Giannoulias worthy
* A closer look at U.S. Senate candidates Kirk, Giannoulias
* U.S. Senate candidate profiles
* Kirk, Giannoulias press the flesh in suburbs, city
* SJ-R: Alexi Giannoulias for U.S. Senate
* RR Star: Alexi Giannoulias our pick for U.S. senator
* Giannoulias: This Senate Seat Isn’t For Sale
- bored now - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:23 am:
learned on sunday that kirk is actually challenging the right to vote of black voters in early voting locations. pretty frickin’ despicable. it is clear that their intention is more to create long lines for voters in black precincts, thereby dissuading people there to forgo voting because it takes too much time as well as force as many black voters as possible to vote with provisional ballots so that they won’t really count.
who said mark kirk won’t be a lapdog for the southern republican leadership in the senate? no honorable person would employ these tactics, not that kirk had a lick of honor before…
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:23 am:
If independents really are breaking late for Kirk, then game over.
- Team America - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:26 am:
Trib poll is encouraging but was taken before Alexi’s “economic treason” comment has a chance to sink in with voters. Look for independents to continue to break for Kirk, especially in the Burbs/downstate, and especially as it becomes even more clear that Giannoulias is the “Chicago” candidate.
- train111 - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:34 am:
This year seems to be worse than others in terms of polling. I often sit back and wonder what the actual voting is going to look like.
We’ve had so much trash this year. It’s almost as if every time the Billy-Bob Polling Company goes out and calls 3 people and 2 say they’re going the one way, then the media goes craszy about this seat or that. It seems that nobody is slowing down to actually look at these results outside of a cursory examination of the topline. It just seems bad. I wouldn’t be suprised if the biggest loser this time around is the media and pundit class whose predictions will be shown to be utter nonsense beacause they relied on so much nonsense polling. Garbage in=garbage out still applies–I think
train111
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:34 am:
-bored now,
How about a link to your source of your information…
- Amalia - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:34 am:
good topic for after the election, the state of polling in the world
of dwindling landlines, blocked calls, polling construction bias.
you hit on a good topic, Rich!
- A.B. - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:38 am:
…and let’s keep in mind that we all have a right to a fair election. That means that we have the right to vote as well as the right to be sure that voter fraud does not take place. If Kirk or any candidate’s people are challenging a voter and they cross the line it is the responsibility of the polling place to take action. Seeing as how there haven’t been any reports of the authorities needing to take action, it sure seems like the process is working appropriately.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:42 am:
After a year of Alexi bashing Kirk over his embellishments, the tabs on the Tribune poll show Kirk with a +5% lead when the respondents are asked who is the most honest candidate. Air ball, Alexi.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:43 am:
A.B.,
Well said. Perhaps the New Black Panther Party should be enlisted to police the polls…
- Another Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:44 am:
The most recent four independent polls listed on RealClearPolitics are: Kirk +3 Tribune, Kirk +2 Mason-Dixon, Kirk +4 Rasmussen, and Kirk +2 PPP.
That consistency from firms with different leanings gives me some confidence that the polls are giving us a generally good read.
- ChrisChicago82-Independent - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:45 am:
While I dont want to appear slanderous, Rich, something crossed my mind while you were attacking the Tribune poll.
I ended up asking myself a question: If it were Alexi in the lead, and not Kirk, would Rich be as outraged by the polling?
Problem is… I am still asking myself that question.
I’m not a Republican, and I am not trying to engage in slander, but you yourself say you have a problem with Kirk personally and outright admit you would not allow yourself to vote for him. You say you can report on him, but essentially just cannot stomach him (your words… not mine). Can you REALLY report on him? While I’m not saying you can’t, can you at least see where somebody like me might pause before taking your wording on the Senate race as gospel?
By the way, you fail to note something about the DSCC poll. Last week the same poll was conducted and Alexi lead Kirk by 5 points 41 to 36. If a poll conducted by the DSCC, of all places, shows Alexi losing ground by 3% points, is it REALLY that big of a stretch to consider less biased polling conducted by the Tribune, Mason/Dixon, PPP, and Rasmussen taken within the last week to be spot on?
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:49 am:
Chris is obviously new.
- shore - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:50 am:
The reason I have serious doubts about alexi winning this race is that kirk beat a decent opponent in a district that gave obama the same vote that the state did in 08. If kirk was able to win in bad years for republicans, I struggle to see how he won’t win in a good year unless conservatives don’t back him and there’s no evidence that will happen-yet.
If durbin is right that 900,000 less democrats will vote, that independents favor republicans more and more republicans are voting, it’s hard to look at that and see how he doesn’t win the race.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:53 am:
ChrisChicago82, don’t be ridiculous.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:01 pm:
How quickly will we see a new Kirk ad on this:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/greek-legal-analysis-alexi-giannoulias-draft-dodger_511846.html
- 47th Ward - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:06 pm:
Really Cinci, that’s the issue that is going to carry the day for Kirk? If you want to twist this into some kind of ridiculous draft-dodging charge, I’m sure you could make a nicely devastating 30 second ad from it. But it is ridiculous on its face.
US law does not recognize dual citizenship. End of story. But go ahead and make a big deal out of this.
- MrJM - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
@ChrisChicago82 - I believe you may have confused “slanderous” with “foolish”.
– MrJM
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
Cinci, seriously: to whom do you believe that will appeal? Vets…maybe some? But everyone else? And round and round it goes.
- Cheryl44 - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
OT maybe, but I finally saw an ad for Lisa Madigan over the weekend. I still don’t know who is running against her, and I’ve already voted.
- Responsa - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:11 pm:
Election judges have been told to expect a greater number of provisional ballots this year than usual. That is largely due to the disruption of people’s lives, lost jobs and lost homes as a result of the current recession. A great number of people in all areas and all walks of life are not living at the same location at which they were registered for the 2008 election. Some have moved from bank-owned houses into rental apartments. Some have moved in with family members. Some remain in the same precinct. Many did not. Probably more than a few have overlooked their obligation to report moves and to re-register in a timely fashion. Some will be turned to another precinct or allowed to vote provisional or on a federal ballot because mail sent to them by the county clerk was returned by the post office and marked that they are no longer at the address for them shown on previous voter rolls. In that case there are specific questions they will be asked about where and when they moved and they will have to prove where they currently live.
Most election judges take their responsibilities very seriously- we take an oath- and polling places are monitored by states attorney and attorney general representatives for compliance to election law and process. To even suggest, as one of our earlier commenters has, that assuring proper and credible verification of voters is somehow intimidation or a plot against certain voters is an insult to every single one of us in Illinois of any party whose first priority always is to have a fair election result.
- A.B. - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:21 pm:
@Responsa
I am not completely clear on your post, but if your response was towards me, then I think my comments might have been taken a little out of whack with their intention.
My argument is that we, meaning Illinois voters, have a long history of questionable voting practices. This is well known, documented and discussed.
In that light, it is our responsibility to provide a transparent voting process, where the public can witness and verify that the process is fair and legal.
I completely agree that 99% of election judges have good intentions. However, that 1% that don’t are unacceptable. And, let’s remember that human error will and does occur. We should be thankful for each and every individual who takes the time on election day to produce a fair and valid vote. On the opposite side, I applaud every person who identifies someone breaking the law or intentionally hindering the process and takes the steps necessary to protect the validity of the election.
- Been There - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:22 pm:
===I still don’t know who is running against her, and I’ve already voted.===
I think an interesting question would be: what would happen with Lisa and Jesse White in this election year if they had credible opposition? Lets say Jim Ryan or Birkett ran again? Or a GOP candidate who started out with a lot of money and was able to run commercials for months on end? Would these two still be waltzing into office or could some candidate actually have a shot at winning?
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:27 pm:
Hard to tell. In addition to “stories”, experience, background, likeability, etc., this election seems to show us–or reinforces–that HOW one runs a campaign matters as well, making it IMHO, even tougher to find “feasible” candidates.
- Verdicto - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:31 pm:
Shore:
I can certainly see a path to Kirk victory. If he loses, Kirk’s path to defeat walks through some downstaters and social conservatives who are at least apathetic and at most hostile to his candidacy.
Ten years of fudging your military experience and voting like a pro-enviro/pro-choice Dem on certain issues is not easily forgotten by that crowd.
- A.B. - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:37 pm:
@ Been There
It seems to me that the better strategy is to have weaker candidates against them, thus giving less incentive for their candidate specific voters to turn out to the polls. Also helping to lessen Dem voter motivation.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:49 pm:
47th Ward and Anonymous,
As usual, your biases against Kirk are exposed by your words. Nowhere did I say it was a big deal, I only asked how quickly we will see it (if at all) as a Kirk ad.
As far as a potential ad’s audience, I would use it as a blunt to the embellishment issue, and a reinforcement of Kirk’s longstanding military record. If you ever attended a Tea Party, you would know that many of the participants are Veterans, many of whom question Kirk’s conservative credentials. Many commenters on this blog have remarked on Kirk’s weakness with conservatives, any thing that shores up his support with this critical constituency would be a plus.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
Call me naive, but I find it interesting that the “strategies” that seem to be discussed most lately, are all about keeping Voters at home. Hmmm….
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:52 pm:
My, Cinci seems quite sensitive today. I now have a bias against Kirk.
Cinci, please feel free to apply that phrase Rich sometimes uses to this situation–from me to you.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:55 pm:
Anonymous @12:50,
The purpose of negative ads are two-fold. By tarring your opponent, you hope to increase your base turnout while depressing the opponent’s. This tactic is played out time and again during all elections, and we are seeing it in spades this cycle. Most undecided voters break in the last couple of weeks of a campaign, we should start seeing plenty of “positive” ads from the candidates, expect gauzy focus and smarmy music in upcoming ads.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:57 pm:
I find the defensiveness of Alexi’s supporters an even better barometer on the state of the race than any polling, Anon.
- bored now - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:58 pm:
Cincinnatus: a democratic campaign worker. i confirmed that there were republican poll watchers at the site in question through david orr’s office.
A.B.: oh, cut the crap. kirk declared himself that he was targeting black areas. he’s not concerned about fairness, and i can’t believe that you are so deluded that selective targeting of “coincidently” black voters meets even a republican’s standard of fairness. this is outright voter suppression, an acknowledgement that mark kirk has absolutely no interest in representing all of illinois.
you let me know when republican poll watchers start challenging the right to vote in white precincts, will ya???
*shaking head*
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:02 pm:
People, take a breath, please. Thanks.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:03 pm:
I am now fully enlightened, Cinci–and I thank my lucky stars that you’re here to do that for me. Where would I be without your pointing out the bloody obvious theories to me?
- 47th Ward - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:03 pm:
Cinci, since you are the one who felt the need to link to the Weekly Standard’s nonstory, that quotes a Breitbart Big Government “scoop,” you sure sound funny talking about my biases. And if you think the Weekly Standard and Breitbart are unbiased sources, I have a bridge to sell you.
But thanks for confirming Kirk’s weakness among conservatives. Most of us here can read a poll too, so you haven’t really shed much light on Kirk’s well known problem with the right. And how exactly is attacking Giannoulias for not serving in the Greek armed forces going to shore up that lagging conservative support?
And I thought you knew how to play this game. I guess I was wrong.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:03 pm:
Thank you, Rich.
- wizard - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:10 pm:
the left seems a tad thin skinned today
- Responsa - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:23 pm:
@A.B. 12:21
Try this. Refer to the very first comment posted on this thread at 11:23. Then, with that frame re-read my post at 12:11. Perhaps that will make the intent and meaning of my comments more clear.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:39 pm:
lol. OK, I’ll admit it. I just received the most confusing full color, glossy, four-page flyer labelled “Our Times”–and (without cheating by looking who put it out first) was a bit confused as to who it was promoting. Wonder how I got on a D mailing list.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:03 pm:
=By tarring your opponent, you hope to increase your base turnout while depressing the opponent’s.=
The word “hope” is key. Doesn’t help if you turn off your base as well in the process. But then again, seems that “we” all hoped to redefine the “base” this time around, didn’t we? Hence, I suppose, the four-color flyer. (I bet Kirk’s Campaign will claim they saw that coming, right?)
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:25 pm:
C’mon, 47th. Look again at the original comment I made. All I was asking was if Kirk would pick up on it, and if so when. I personally would let it pass, were I with Kirk’s team, and instead focus an ad on the current hold-back of the FDIC report on Alexi’s bank. I think there is some mileage to be made on the FDIC report.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:31 pm:
And if Giannoulias simply states “go ahead accelerate the process” and it doesn’t get accelerated, how will that make Kirk look?
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 3:44 pm:
After reading through the postings above, and especially from those I’ve been reading pro-Alexi posts from for the past eight months, I have come to a conclusion…
It looks like Kirk is going to win and Giannoulias supporters know it. Turnout? Take a look again at what Giannoulias’ supporters are down to arguing. Yeah - turnout is going to be a big problem when his partisan bloggers are obviously tired of fooling themselves this close to the Election.
I don’t know what is going to happen, but if the spirit of these comments is any indication, it seems that one group smells victory and other defeat.
- Tukas - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 5:19 pm:
Vote Green Party. LeAlan Jones is better than the two clowns that are parading around. Break from the ’status quo’ Make change REALLY HAPPEN!!
- T.J. - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 5:21 pm:
It’s sad Chris can’t get even a stock response to his question.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 7:43 pm:
–Vote Green Party. LeAlan Jones is better than the two clowns that are parading around.–
It’s hard to argue with that.
My plan was to write-in Cheryl Jackson, because, as far as I can tell, she was the only candidate in any party to call out the tragic, expensive, lunacy of our “mission” in Afghanistan.
But I’m a klutz, and I imagine writing in a candidate is hard. So I’m looking at Jones, who is so far, okay, as well as Labno, who I like on the wars, but not so much on other things.
If you want real-world experience, Jones, I believe, is a football coach at Simeon, which is having the best year of any CPS team in decades. Given the incredible amount of time, money and commitment it takes to even field a football team — which the CPS ain’t got — that attracts my attention.
Regardless of the Senate election, here’s to the Simeon football team. Good luck in the playoffs.