* From the Democrats’ coordinated campaign…
Across Illinois, over 23,200 people knocked on doors and made phone calls over the final four days, many of them filling multiple volunteer shifts, as part of the IL Democratic Coordinated Campaign. There were 8,000 people on the street on election day alone
We knocked on over 975,000 doors and made over 380,000 phone calls over the last four days.
Over 50 percent of these voter contact efforts were concentrated in Cook County. These efforts resulted in higher than expected voter turnout within Chicago (over 50%). African American turnout was up from 2006 in many south side neighborhoods and southern Cook County townships.
ROBO CALLS IN FINAL FOUR DAYS:
80k VPOTUS
240k POTUS- “Vote tomorrow”
240k POTUS- “Vote today”
There are a lot of Democrats in this state, and when they vote (and they almost always do) they make a big difference. From the exit polling…
That’s a two-point drop in Democratic representation from 2006, and that led to some problems everywhere. But it could’ve been much worse. The ground game certainly helped keep this from being a total, complete Democratic disaster.
Illinois election day voters also had a far higher opinion of the Democratic Party than they did the Republican Party…
A 58 percent unfavorable for the GOP? Not great branding. And considering the beating the Democratic Party has taken in the media here, a 51 percent favorable is downright astounding. The result is also another indication that the Democratic Party did a better job of getting its people to the polls. And while David Miller probably didn’t have a chance against Topinka, the numbers suggest that he and Robin Kelly could’ve benefited from some coordinated campaign and/or state party help…
David Miller believes state Democratic Party leaders and unions failed him Tuesday. Miller is a dentist, a state representative since 2001 and a resident of Lynwood.
On Tuesday, he was badly defeated in his campaign for state comptroller by Republican Judy Baar Topinka (52.9 percent to 40.6 percent of the vote).
“I think African-American political leaders are going to have to take a look at these races and ask what happened,” Miller said, referring to his defeat and that of Matteson resident Robin Kelly, who’s also black and was beaten by a Republican in the state treasurer’s race.
It would’ve also helped if Miller and Kelly had put together better campaigns on their own, of course. Nothing attracts campaign assistance like success.
* And don’t forget the unions…
Quinn also latched onto organized labor. The Illinois Education Association alone scared the pants off suburban educators, convincing them Brady would decimate public education and pensions. The e-mails that circulated among teachers in the final weeks of the campaign pushed swing voters and women to vote against Brady.
Service Employees International Union, Teamsters, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and dozens of other groups dumped gobs of money and resources into Quinn’s campaign.
“The unions pulled out all the stops because (Quinn) has been very kind to them,” said Andy Shaw, a veteran political reporter and now executive director of the Better Government Association. “It proves (that) in a ‘blue’ state unions still matter.”
Quinn didn’t win a super-gigantic percentage of the union household vote, but it was enough…
Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, union households are dropping. 32 percent told exit pollsters they lived in a union household four years ago. Still, if it wasn’t for that money the unions spent and the effort they put into the campaign, it would’ve been a much worse day for the Democrats.
* Election day voters seemed more liberal than recent polls have suggested. For instance, every poll taken before the election had pluralities or even majorities of likely Illinois voters favoring repeal of the federal health care legislation. Not on election day…
* Related…
* SJ-R: State needs timely election resolution
* Cook County tallies votes that could decide governor’s race
* Officials Doubt Brady Can Top Quinn’s Lead
* Quinn mum but reportedly optimistic
* Obama calls Quinn to offer congrats
* Simon: Outcome “Looking Good” for Democrats
* Simon, like everyone, waits out a nail-biter
* Schoenburg: Simon ‘brand,’ creationism might have aided Quinn
* If Brady needs a shoulder to cry on, he should call Kirk Dillard
* Brady’s mom knows the pain of politics, many times over
- HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:10 am:
Probably also would have helped if Miller had not been running against one of the most recognized names in Illinois politics in a low-profile race. Y’know. Just saying.
- Honest Abe - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:14 am:
Memo to David Miller:
Topinka has always been on unusually “friendly” terms with Democratic leaders on the Southwest Side and in the Western suburbs. There have been credible allegations that these politicians have traded votes and knifed other candidates on their sample ballots in furtherance of their backroom deals. This is common knowledge. Topinka is on better terms with more Democrats than she is with Republicans.
- steve schnorf - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:18 am:
For crying out loud, Andy, I don’t think most state government union members believe Quinn has been “very kind” to them–furloughs, tier-2, deferrals, etc. Instead it was one of those rare years where a gov running for re-election could deal more harshly than usual with the unions because he only had to out-run his opponent, not the bear.
- ILPundit - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:18 am:
With all due respect to David Miller, his response in the above post is the perfect example of why nominating Democratic state legislators to run for statewide office (particularly Chicago area legislators) has been such a consistently bad and unproductive undertaking.
Running for office is hard no matter what, but most legislators seem to have no concept of how much easier the Chicago machine, state party/Madigan fundraising, and key staffing support make it for them. They try to make the leap and seem confused when all of the sudden they don’t have the money to operate a campaign or competent staff to help them run their race.
The only way to make it to the big leagues is to earn it.
- Liandro - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:21 am:
Democrats have sunk us into a massive state budgeting hole and a massive ethical hole. Schools aren’t getting paid, businesses aren’t getting paid, local governments don’t get their own money back from the state. Multiple generations are stuck in the same terrible neighborhoods, and educational opportunities are far from equal. We send politicians and their cronies to jail at a ridiculous rate. Our pensions aren’t funded, and our infrastructure in many places needs attention. And we blame Republicans?
The state Speaker of the House has massive power, and that position has been locked down by the same democrat for quite awhile. The governor of Illinois has more power then the average already-powerful U.S. governor. Between those two positions and near-super majority numbers in the state Assembly, Democrats completely own this state, and SHOULD own all its problems. Yet they have better numbers then Republicans? That is truly sad on so many levels. Their ground game is bought and paid for with promises they haven’t kept or, in some cases, SHOULDN’T have kept because they were dirty deals to begin with. This is might makes right, not merit.
To top that all off, we just had a Republican “wave”…except nothing touched the state level. We just sent a message to the Democratic power-brokers like Speaker Madigan that they are untouchable. We might as well have directly told them to keep spending beyond our means, and to keep putting the strain and both current and future generations, because we won’t ever rise up against them.
As someone under 30, I have to look at this state’s future and honestly wonder what price I am going to be paying through the years for coming back here to set up my business and raise my family. It’s frustrating. I hope Quinn does whatever it is people voting for him think he’s going to do, because I just don’t see it.
- These Games are BS - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:21 am:
David Miller has a big point. He was a lead sponsor of education funding reform in the House and the IEA knifed him. He was endorsed by the Illinois AFL-CIO in his race against Topinka, but the AFL-CIO included every endorsed candidate except Miller on their election-day GOTV booklet.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:22 am:
Although I am not surprised, because I knew it was happening, that 31% of unioun households voted for Brady, I am perplexed. It just shows how voter anger translates into votes. Lots of these union guys were probably sitting in union halls waiting for work for months and were willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces.
- Aaron - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:24 am:
Excellent analysis of the exit polls. Really shows the shortcomings of Brady’s campaign. Still can’t believe Quinn pulled this one out. Guess I have been around long enough lol.
- Amalia - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:26 am:
Honest Abe is correct.
and, while Il Pundit is correct that the machine, Madigan operation make things easier for State Legislators, the question is, what does the state party do for those running for State office? it is absolutely the responsibility of those running a campaign to do their best with a campaign organization. even if you win, a candidate must ask if they did it with too much support from others…never a good thing.
but, how did the Durbin operation function for others? how did the madigan operation….State Party, not Speaker operation….function for others. What exactly is the State Democratic party, for whom does it work, what should it do?
I think it should work to assist campaigns all up and down the ticket. It’s a shame that David lost. he’s a bright person and it’s a loss for our party.
- Montrose - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:29 am:
One thing I keep thinking about. Put Illinois to Work hired 27,000 people with 5,000 employers involved in the program. Having that many people and buisnesses directly helped by Pat Quinn surely helped him on Tuesday.
- So. ILL - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:30 am:
Did my comment get deleted?
- ILPundit - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:32 am:
Amalia -
What did the state party do for Miller and other electeds do for Miller? They handed him the nomination and then ran the multi-million dollar field operation that resulted in 52% city turnout in an off year election. That’s a pretty big gift. Miller and Kelly did nothing to capitalize on it.
- Bill Lewis - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:33 am:
Miller has only himself to blame. I voted Dem in all of the big races EXCEPT for Miller. Why? Because of his quotes in the paper a few years ago about ALNAC and supporting it instead of Will County, where a 3rd airport would be located. Supporting JJJ cost him in Eastern Will County, for sure. Payback, my friend.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:38 am:
What would have happened if Brady won? How could we have a governor with that poor support from Chicago? Chicago pays the bills. I would rather have the governor be from the part of the state that generates money than the part of the state that is dependant on it.
But look at what we had. It was a tie between the two Illinois.
What if Brady did not know those polls showing him comfortably ahead? He would have had to work Chicago. He would have had to show that he had no fangs. Bill left Chicago to Quinn. Quinn worked it because he knew had no support outside Chicago.
This election was a tie because both candidates blew it. Quinn is a lousy governor who squeezed out a win in his home base. Brady was a lousy candidate who squeezed out a win in his home base for the nomination, and tried the same stunt for the general.
Both men failed to reach across the aisle and find common cause with those with differing opinions than they. Both men failed to campaign outside their home turf.
The fact that Quinn could win like this shows the importance of a statewide candidate to be in Chicago and making bonds. The fact that Brady could have won like this shows the importance of a statewide candidate to be Downstate and making bonds.
This election shows a widening gap between Chicago and the rest of Illinois. This election show that our two gubernatorial candidate were little more than parochial hacks. The State is dying but we had to choose between two men running for chairmenships in their own little corner of their political world.
With Quinn nothing will change.The rot will continue. But we will all pay more for it.
This election shows that Blagojevich in 2006 could have been worse. We had 4 years before we went over the cliff and today we are falling through the air with Democrats telling us we can somehow build a bridge to catch us. They just want a few more billions.
- This Little Piggie - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:40 am:
Wow! Who knew robocalls could be so effective!
Good money spent.
- Liandro - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:50 am:
Great post Vanillaman, I agree with every word. Brady should have hit Chicago harder…all he had to do was stop the bleeding just a tad and he wins. Illinois would have the split party control is so desperately needs as a check on power. I know I should be happy about all the national level pick-ups, but how can I be happy when my own state is still walking right over the edge? How much is Illinois paying each year in just interest? How much is lost to corruption? How much of that could have been going into tax relief, education, pension shoring, infrastructure, or any of a million other needs? So…frustrating…we’re addicts who can’t cut up the credit cards even as our house it getting taken away from us.
- gfalkes - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:59 am:
so when will we see county by county turnout numbers? I’m guessing the relative balance of power amongst actual voters was shifted more towards Cook then in past elections. I’ve read that many downstate counties had a “huge surge” to 42-48% turnout. Brady’s strategy needed more of an uptick then that to win, even with better numbers in the suburbs. All of which applifies the work and strategy of the Dems Cook turnout strategy. Brady allowed himself to become a regional candidate and the region just wasn’t “angry” enough.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
Thank you Steve.
Me thinks that Andy Shaw is upset that his ‘non-endorsed’ candidate, Forrest Claypool, got his clock cleaned.
On that note, if Andy Shaw wants to credit someone for Quinn’s victory, he should look in the mirror.
The BGA and the Chicago Tribune worked tirelessly to prop up the Claypool campaign — to the point of encouraging folks to circulate petitions for him. In the process, their tirades against Madigan, Cullerton and the Democratic Party were unrelenting. THEY gave Madigan and Regular Democrats every reason to work their butts off Tuesday in Cook County, much to Quinn’s benefit.
- Loop Lady - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:46 pm:
Vanilla Man: I am sad you stooped so low in your sore loser post above…Brady’s defeat is directly related to his right wing stances on social postions that alienated northern IL Cook and other Chicago region county female voters…plain and simple…your guy lost and he is responsible for his positions on all the issues including non specific ideas on deficit reduction and thinking that he can wipe out the red ink firing state workers and not raising taxes…he needs to act like a gentleman and concede, then head down to Florida for bit of R&R before helping to pass the tax increase that will help erase the massive deficit…I hate to say I told you so…
- cermak_rd - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:51 pm:
Oh please! Brady’s mom knows the pain of politics? You know who knows the pain of politics? Perhaps Rose Kennedy or the Ghandi family in India or the Bhutto family in Pakistan or maybe the Rabin family in Israel.
Losing an election? That’s not pain. At least 50% of the candidates lose one every cycle.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 12:56 pm:
–As someone under 30, I have to look at this state’s future and honestly wonder what price I am going to be paying through the years for coming back here to set up my business and raise my family.–
You’re too young to be so morose. Leave that for the older people here who have been through this stuff before.
You’re under 30? Trust me, today’s not so bad. As you get older, you’ll find life gets worse in so many ways, lol.
- Bill - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:04 pm:
Miller should examine his own voting record if he wants an explanation for lukewarm support from labor and even opposition from the IEA. It has nothing to do with his ethnic background. Voting for pension deform was the kiss of death for him and Reps in tight races. Ask Mark Walker. Remember where you came from and who helped you get where you are before kneeling to kiss the Madigan ring next time.
Oh wait, there won’t be a a next time, will there?
- Bill - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:08 pm:
Ohh, and Vannie,
It wasn’t a tie, dude. Pat Quinn won.
- Secret Square - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:09 pm:
Wasn’t there a QOTD, or some other post, not too long ago speculating on the ripple effect the Chicago mayoral race might have on the statewide races? I believe there were two schools of thought on that. Either
1) the mayoral race would suck all the oxygen out of the political room and decrease Chicago turnout, or
2) potential mayoral candidates and their supporters would use Nov. 2 as an opportunity to flex their GOTV and organizational muscle in preparation for the mayoral race, thereby INCREASING Chicago turnout.
Perhaps #2 turned out to be right?
- Liandro - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
@wordslinger:
Lol, fair enough, but all this spending and debt is landing on MY generation’s shoulders. As a small business owner I already pay a ton of taxes that I didn’t even know existed a few years ago, and Social Security is scheduled to be dry long before I get there. Medicare/Medicaid are arguably in worse shape then Social Security, and Illinois’ pensions other debts are going to require something drastic eventually. It’s knowingly make the next generation pay for their spending.
Know which doors they knock on first for money? Business owners. And I never knew how much ’til I became one. My water rate is higher, my electric rate is higher, my property tax rate is higher, my phone and internet services cost more, my payroll taxes are ridiculous. My city (Dixon), county (Lee), state, and country (”Bush” tax cuts dying) all want to raise either my sales tax or my income tax. How about they just learn how to spend within their means like the rest of us?
Shouldn’t they want me to expand past the 20 employees I currently have? Isn’t that the jobs growth they claim they’re for? Man, send ‘em my way and I’ll tell them what we entrepreneurs need in order to do that.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:25 pm:
There’s never an excuse for getting out-hustled.
- Wizzard of Ozzie - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:28 pm:
“Both men failed to campaign outside their home turf.”
Vanilla Man, wrong. Quinn put in time and effort downstate. He spent the Monday before the Election on a downstate swing and did several of them. Brady was NEVER in Chicago.
- Amalia - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:29 pm:
IL Pundit, so what does the State Party do with those party officials who are Topinka lovers? this is nothing new and the State Party knows it. the state party functions through a network of workers who operate under people, not directly under Madigan. so, while the higher party does certain things, provides money and materials, calls, what if those committeemen with the workers work for Topinka? Miller loses out.
was there a separate operation for Miller in the Topinka loving Dem areas? If the party did that, then fine, if not, it’s just more of the same from them. they know that the down ballot candidates need their help. those candidates should get it.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:32 pm:
Liandro, you’re right, life is pretty much one g-d thing after another, but it beats the alternatives. Our problems aren’t insurmountable. A little history will show you that.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:39 pm:
Liandro,
Quit squawking. Try working for these pols. They hit you up for money every three months and then around election time all you do is work your butt off-so they can forget about you till the next fundraiser.
Maybe you should run for office and hit up your own employees for money to run your campaign and then if you win you can use your government salary to offset your expenses while writing off the business as a loss so you won’t have to pay any taxes.
- chi - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:39 pm:
re: the comment (and the numbers) that there are fewer union households in illinois today than four years ago. much of that is attributable to the economy… when union members are out of work they often let their dues lapse and technically lose their membership status. once work and the economy picks up again, the number will go up, not down.
- (618) Democrat - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:46 pm:
I think the Democrats would have had a bigger turn out if it weren’t for the never-ending polls showing us behind. Then you had that 538 thing that at one point gave Quinn a 4% or 6% chance of winning. Those kind of polls drive down enthusiasm, make it difficult to recruit volunteers, and make it harder to raise money.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:53 pm:
(618) Democrat,
that’s a really good point. Lot’s of hidden agendas in this years polling. I would say people should lie to the pollsters but it really doesn’t help when the pollsters are on the level anyway.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 1:54 pm:
sorry, meant aren’t on the level anyway. duh
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:15 pm:
Rich must be napping because Southtown is way out of line and should be deleted.
You don’t like Miller, that’s fine, but calling him names says more about you than it does him. You have no class Southtown. You also have a poor vocabulary.
- Honest Abe - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
Bill Brady was in Chicago, but so infrequently that it was virtually meaningless.
He stopped to shake hands with commuters at the Chicago Northwestern railroad station last week.
- MrJM - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 3:45 pm:
@Southtown: If you don’t already understand that your post is neither classy nor witty, it probably won’t help for me to point that out, will it?
– MrJM
- Obamarama - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 6:18 pm:
Way out of line, Southtown. Additionally, Miller’s loss had nothing to do with him or his campaign (though it did resemble a state legislative campaign being spread thinly to a statewide scale). The reason he lost was Judy.
Like it or not, people dig “Crazy Aunt Judy,” to quote Patti Blagojevich. Her name recognition is sky-high, she pulled some union support and influenced some union indifference towards Miller.
- Mommy2one - Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 9:02 pm:
I agree with looplady. As a downstatee, we feel Brady spent most of his time and $$ up north. Maybe it wasn’t in Chicago proper but it was definitely spent in collar counties and suburban Cook. If you live there and write that he wasn’t up there either then, apparently he was sitting at a coffeeshop the last 6 months and campaigned no where.
Brady was way too conservative for this state and Quinn was able to bring that up which scared moderates away from a guy who probably had a better shot at fixing the state financially. In my opinion, this governors race should have been 150% only about the budget but Quinns people did a good job changing the subject. At the end of the day, Republican moderate woman from Shaumburg couldn’t vote for Brady because he was a heartless animal killer and extreme on abortion.
- RFK fan - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 7:37 am:
One of the great unfortunates of this year is the loss of Robin Kelly. A former state representative, chief of staff to Alexi Giannoulias (and don’t give me the much rehashed Bright Start business–that was in one fund, was largely resolved; I have money for my daughter in Bright Start and we have gotten a perfectly acceptable return), and Ph.D. in political science. She had no money, partly as a result of her thinking her own electoral career was over before Giannoulias decided to seek another office, and partly because the ethical rules in their administration prevented them from shaking down employees or the banking industry for bucks. She had innovative ideas with regard to job creation and “food deserts”. Rutherford’s not bad, but on either side of the aisle occasionally the people just get it really wrong, and this is such a time.